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At least 199 records · Page 11

Effects of time-dependent deformation of shale on the integrity of a geological nuclear waste repository

Safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories is essential for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive waste. The long-term integrity of the host rock as well as the engineered barrier system (e.g., bentonite buffer) surrounding nuclear waste canisters is of particular importance as decay heat from nuclear waste canisters, which will last over thousands of years, significantly disturbs the thermo-hydromechanical (THM) state of the repository. In this study, THM coupled simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep) of shale on the long-term integrity of a generic subsurface nuclear waste repository. The Norton-Bailey creep model, which is also known as the Lemaitre-Menzel-Schreiner model, was employed to simulate the power-law type creep that is observed in shales. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator was employed for the THM coupled modeling of the repository. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of creep in different shales (i.e., high creep shale vs. low creep shale) on long-term stress and permeability changes in the repository. Results show potential advantages of constructing repositories in the high creep shale, as deviatoric stress levels in the formation decreased to zero in 100 years since the emplacement of nuclear waste canisters and the permeability also decreased to the undamaged, intrinsic levels in 10,000 years. Also, mean effective stress levels in the bentonite buffer increased by 100% in the high creep shale case relative to the low creep shale case at 10,000 years due to creep-induced contraction of the nuclear waste disposal tunnel. However, in earlier periods (e.g., 1000 years), the stress levels in the bentonite buffer were twice smaller in the high creep shale case than in the low creep shale case, which shows a tradeoff between the intermediate- (~1000 years) and long-term (>10,000 years) compaction levels in the bentonite buffer depending on the creep characteristics of the host shale.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Chemo‐mechanical Alterations Induced From CO 2 Injection in Carbonate‐Cemented Sandstone: An Experimental Study at 71 °C and 29 MPa

Abstract Carbon capture, utilization, and storage may lead to mechanical degradation of the subsurface reservoir from fluid‐rock interaction, which could lead to wellbore instability or reservoir compaction. To better understand potential relationship between mechanical degradation with various carbonate cement textures and compositions in sandstone reservoirs, six flow‐through experiments were conducted. Formation water (TDS = 5,390 mg/L) enriched with CO 2 flowed through two types of Pennsylvanian Morrow B Sandstone: an ankerite‐siderite‐cemented sandstone (disseminated cement texture) and a calcite‐cemented sandstone (poikilotopic cement texture). The experiments produced little change in permeability in the ankerite‐siderite‐cemented sandstone, but permeability increased up to more than 1 order of magnitude in the calcite‐cemented sandstone. Ultrasonic measurements and cylinder‐splitting tests (also known as Brazilian tests) suggested negligible mechanical degradation of the ankerite‐siderite‐cemented sandstone. Variable changes, with significant mechanical degradation in the static moduli, were observed in the calcite‐cemented sandstone. Thus, dissolution of the disseminated ankerite‐siderite cement (0.28–0.30%) had minimal impact on modifying the flow network and the mechanical integrity of the sandstone, whereas dissolution of the poikilotopic calcite cement (0.89–1.13%, quantified with fluid chemistry and visualized with X‐ray microcomputed tomography) impacted the mechanical strength of the sandstone by disconnecting framework grains. With the high water‐to‐rock mass ratios (7.3–8.2) and number of pore volumes (147–675) employed in these experiments, potential risks are most relevant to regions near injection wells. Ultimately, the chemo‐mechanical effects induced by CO 2 injection are strongly influenced by the cement texture and composition and the burial history of the reservoir rock.

Wu, Z.↗

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Electrical Resistivity Tomography Monitoring of In Situ Soil Flushing at the Hanford 100-K East Area: 100KE Soil Flushing Monitoring

Former operations in the 100-KE Area at the Hanford Site resulted in vadose zone hexavalent chromium that provides a source of groundwater contamination. Previous efforts to remediate vadose zone chromium involved excavation and offsite treatment of contaminated soils. Although much of the chromium was removed, contamination still exists in native soil between the water table and the bottom of the pit, which has since been backfilled. In-situ soil flushing was tested at the 100-KE Area to accelerate the removal of the remaining hexavalent chromium in the vadose zone. Soil flushing works by applying clean flush water at the surface, which mobilizes and transports chromium as it migrates downward to the water table. Once the chromium reaches the water table, it is hydraulically contained, extracted, and treated through pump and treat operations. The efficacy of soil flushing is directly related to the volume of clean water that infiltrates through contaminated soils. Therefore, performance monitoring requires and understanding of flush water migration through the vadose zone. It is challenging to comprehensively assess soil flushing performance via borehole access due to the limited volume of investigation afforded by a given wellbore. As an alternative, 3D time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was tested as a method of monitoring the distribution of flush water over time within the vadose zone. ERT is a method of imaging the bulk electrical conductivity of the subsurface, which is highly dependent on water saturation levels in unconsolidated and unsaturated sediments. Thus, the timing and location of changes in bulk conductivity caused by soil flushing can be used to infer flush water migration pathways. In this report we present results of 3D time-lapse ERT imaging during two separate soil flushing campaigns conducted during the spring and summer months of 2022 and 2023. Results show generally that: 1) Pit backfill materials appear to nominally have larger permeability than native soils. Consequently, the boundary between pit backfill and native soil had a significant impact on flush water migration, causing some flush water to migrate along the pit boundary to the bottom of the pit. 2) Non-uniform flows, likely caused by variations in hydrogeologic properties, developed in the pit backfill materials, resulting in uneven flush water distribution on the southern margin of the soil flushing zone. 3) Redistribution of water at the interface between backfill materials and Hanford formation materials likely facilitated elevated and uniform distribution of flush water within native soils beneath the deeper parts of the pit boundary beneath the center of the flush zone, which presumably overlie soils with elevated chromium contamination. These areas appear to have been infiltrated by higher volumes of flush water than the northern and southern margins of the flush zone. 4) In comparison to 2022, high flush water application rates significantly improved flush water distribution throughout the target flushing zone. 5) Imaging resolution was limited to a depth of approximate 20 meters below the land surface, due primarily to limitations on the lateral extent of the surface ERT array. The ~10 m region of the vadose zone between approximately 130 meters elevation and the water table at approximately 120 meters elevation was unresolved.

100 Area↗

Stimulated geologic hydrogen: from mechanistic control to engineered rock transformation

Geologic hydrogen (GeoH 2 ) generated from subsurface iron-rich rock–water reaction (i.e., serpentinization) is emerging as a promising candidate for the next primary energy source. Yet, accelerating GeoH 2 production from geological to human timescales via enhanced serpentinization remains a formidable scientific and technical challenge. Here, in this Review, we decipher the mechanistic control and explore strategies for accelerating in situ, engineered iron-rich rock transformation into carbon-free GeoH 2 by orders of magnitude. Serpentinization rate is hindered by low porosity and permeability of source rocks, suboptimal temperatures, unfavorable water chemistry, inefficient Fe 2+ -to-Fe 3+ conversion, thermodynamic constraints, and low reactive surface area. While closed-system experiments provide valuable mechanistic insights, open-system conditions with fluid circulation are more crucial for economically viable GeoH 2 production. We assess stimulation techniques from enhanced hydrocarbon and geothermal recovery as tools to be adopted or adapted for increasing reactive surface areas for stimulated GeoH2 production. We estimate that 7.40 × 10 5 to 1.73 × 10 6 million metric tons (Mt) of hydrogen could be engineered over 20 to 50 years from about 10% iron-rich rocks within 10 km depth of continental crust. Enabling GeoH 2 as a viable energy source requires not only advancing scientific frontiers but also forming a global GeoH 2 research network and innovation ecosystem to address the critical scientific, technical, societal, economic, and policy challenges.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Pore-scale visualization of natural hydrate-bearing sediments

Accurate modeling of gas hydrate reservoir productivity and geomechanical risks associated with subsurface dissociation of natural gas hydrates (NGH) requires the determination of model parameters through physical testing on natural hydrate-bearing sediments (HBS). This involves investigating the hydro-mechanical behavior of undisturbed hydrate samples from nature under in situ conditions using pressure core characterization and analysis, which provides a unique opportunity for research. By employing state-of-the-art micro computed tomography imagery on cryogenically preserved, hydrate-bearing sediment samples, we can determine hydrate saturation as well as permeability with and without the presence of hydrates in the sediment. Furthermore, utilizing a machine learning based image segmentation technique, it is possible to extract pore space and grain information. Subsections of the entire image volume were used to determine anisotropic permeabilities using a finite-difference method Stokes solver (FDMSS). Additionally, permeability measurements on whole pressure and temperature preserved hydrate-bearing core were analyzed by utilizing the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Pressure Core Characterization and X-ray CT Visualization Tool (PCXT) to manipulate, cut, and analyze pressure preserved sediment. Permeabilities were measured under a broad range of vertical stress states to simulate expected pressure changes during production scenarios, and the results show that permeabilities derived from images are in agreement with those from traditional core derived experiments. The collected stress-dependent permeability, permeability anisotropy, and corresponding gas hydrate saturations provide valuable input into numerical simulations of reservoir productivity. These properties have been proven to be key parameters determining a long-term reservoir response under depressurization.

Liu, Mengwei [Oak Ridge Institute for Science and ↗

Numerical Simulations of Carbon Dioxide Storage Efficiency in Heterogeneous Reservoir Models

The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) has been developing methods and tools (the online Carbon Dioxide Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN) tool) to estimate carbon dioxide (CO2) storage potential in subsurface reservoirs. The CO2 storage efficiency terms are input in the tool to calculate storage potential in targeted reservoirs. In this effort, two CO2 storage efficiency terms were evaluated: volumetric displacement ( E V ) and microscopic displacement ( E d ). The first term deals with efficiency of CO2 propagation into an accessible reservoir volume, while the second term evaluates effectiveness of native fluid displacement with CO2. The interpreted well logs and core sample measurements were applied to create the heterogeneous reservoir models including geostatistical realizations of porosity and intrinsic permeability fields. Supercritical CO2 was injected over the course of 30 years into brine-saturated reservoir models for clastics, limestone, and dolomite lithologies and deltaic fluvial, aeolian, shallow marine, and reef depositional environments by means of varying reservoir parameters and injection scenarios. The reservoir models providing vertically heterogeneous petrophysical properties and designated as “layered reservoir models” (with homogeneous parameters along each layer of the model) were not determined to be a transition between the homogeneous and heterogeneous models in respect to storage efficiency. Another finding shows that high-efficiency factors do not necessarily mean increased CO2 storage; they rather indicate that the available volume and pore space are more fully utilized. The CO2 storage efficiency factors were evaluated dynamically at the select time points using P 10 ‐ P 50 ‐ P 90 percentiles. The results of this study show that the P 10 ‐ P 90 distribution for volumetric efficiency is wider when compared to the microscopic efficiency. It was found that where dominant buoyancy forces drive the plume to the top of a target formation, the volumetric efficiency is low. Tighter sandstone and carbonate formations show prevalence of capillary forces and better utilization of reservoir volume.

Myshakin, Evgeniy M.↗

Fourier-MIONet: Fourier-enhanced multiple-input neural operators for multiphase modeling of geological carbon sequestration

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a safety-critical technology that aims to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which also places high demands on reliability. Multiphase flow in porous media is essential to understand CO 2 migration and pressure fields in the subsurface associated with GCS. However, numerical simulation for such problems in 4D is computationally challenging and expensive, due to the multiphysics and multiscale nature of the highly nonlinear governing partial differential equations (PDEs). It prevents us from considering multiple subsurface scenarios and conducting real-time optimization. Here, we develop a Fourier-enhanced multiple-input neural operator (Fourier-MIONet) to learn the solution operator of the problem of multiphase flow in porous media. Fourier-MIONet utilizes the recently developed framework of the multiple-input deep neural operators (MIONet) and incorporates the Fourier neural operator (FNO) in the network architecture. Once Fourier-MIONet is trained, it can predict the evolution of saturation and pressure of the multiphase flow under various reservoir conditions, such as permeability and porosity heterogeneity, anisotropy, injection configurations, and multiphase flow properties. Compared to the enhanced FNO (U-FNO), the proposed Fourier-MIONet has 90% fewer unknown parameters, and it can be trained in significantly less time (about 3.5 times faster) with much lower CPU memory (<15%) and GPU memory (<35%) requirements, to achieve similar prediction accuracy. In addition to the lower computational cost, Fourier-MIONet can be trained with only 6 snapshots of time to predict the PDE solutions for 30 years. Furthermore, we observed that Fourier-MIONet can maintain good accuracy when predicting out-of-distribution (OOD) data. The excellent generalizability of Fourier-MIONet is enabled by its adherence to the physical principle that the solution to a PDE is continuous over time. Furthermore, the developed Fourier-MIONet makes it possible to solve the long-time evolution of geological carbon sequestration in a large-scale three-dimensional space accurately and efficiently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermo-Hydrological Modeling of Thermal Energy Storage in a Depleted Oil Reservoir

Thermal energy storage in oil and gas reservoirs leverages the existing surface and subsurface infrastructure, which can pave the way for economic production of geothermal energy. Existing studies on geothermal energy storage are focused mostly on the use of aquifers with more homogeneous rock and fluid properties. Coupling of heat and fluid flow in a multiphase-multicomponent system, such as an oil reservoir, is imperative especially if existing oil field assets need to be repurposed as required for a sustainable energy transition. The objective is to model the subsurface thermo-hydrological processes associated with reservoir performance and operational sustainability. The model evaluates formation pressure and temperature within the reservoir and at the injection/production wells during multiple charge and discharge cycles. Hot water (approximately 200 degrees C) heated by Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) at high pressure is injected into the existing oil reservoir for storage and produced as thermal energy for power generation, which will be accompanied by enhanced oil recovery. To demonstrate the coupled fluid and heat flow during the injection/production cycle in the subsurface reservoir, TOUGH3 (developed by Berkeley Lab) is used to simulate the thermo-hydrological (TH) processes in a multiphase, multicomponent system. Two well geometries are considered within the reservoir grid: 1) a single-well huff-n-puff system (same well is used for injection and production), and 2) an isolated injection-production well doublet. Seasonal charge and discharge cycling are implemented based on the scheduling specified in the model input file. The model reports pressure, temperature, enthalpy, liquid fluxes, heat fluxes, pore velocities, and changes in porosity & permeability due to temperature and pressure variations during the cyclic Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) operations. The results from the simulations can be used to optimize the operational parameters (such as well spacing and injection/production rates) and round-trip efficiency for surface power-plants coupled with thermal energy storage over time. They can also serve as important inputs for levelized cost of storage estimations. The research will help to design and integrate surface renewable energy sources, such as concentrating solar power (CSP), with RTES to help balance out power supply and demand on the grid.

CSP↗

Modeling Geologic Waste Repository Systems Below Residual Saturation

The heat generated by high-level radioactive waste can pose numerical and physical challenges to subsurface flow and transport simulators if the liquid water content in a region near the waste package approaches residual saturation due to evaporation. Here, residual saturation is the fraction of the pore space occupied by liquid water when the hydraulic connectivity through a porous medium is lost, preventing the flow of liquid water. While conventional capillary pressure models represent residual saturation using asymptotically large values of capillary pressure, here, residual saturation is effectively modeled as a tortuosity effect alone. Treating the residual fluid as primarily dead-end pores and adsorbed films, relative permeability is independent of capillary pressure below residual saturation. To test this approach, PFLOTRAN is then used to simulate thermal-hydrological conditions resulting from direct disposal of a dual-purpose canister in unsaturated alluvium using both conventional asymptotic and revised, smooth models. Importantly, while the two models have comparable results over 100 000 years, the number of flow steps required is reduced by approximately 94%.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Subsurface stress criticality associated with fluid injection and determined using machine learning

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine critical state or other parameters related to fluid-driven failure of a terrestrial locale impacted by anthropogenic activities such as hydraulic fracturing, hydrocarbon extraction, wastewater disposal, or geothermal harvesting. Acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes are sensed. A classifier is trained using time series of microscopic data along with corresponding data of critical state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and artificial neural networks are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to live data from a fluid injection locale in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, assess permeability, make predictions regarding a future fluid-driven failure event, or drive engineering solutions for mitigation or remediation. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗

Operational and geological controls of coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along faults: Induced earthquakes in Pohang, South Korea

Coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along pre-existing faults in deep basement contribute to recent occurrence of seismic events at subsurface energy exploration sites. Our coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical model describes the physical processes inducing seismicity corresponding to the sequential stimulation operations in Pohang, South Korea. Simulation results show that prolonged accumulation of poroelastic energy and pore pressure along a fault can nucleate seismic events larger than M w 3 even after terminating well operations. In particular the possibility of large seismic events can be increased by multiple-well operations with alternate injection and extraction that can enhance the degree of pore-pressure diffusion and subsequent stress transfer through a rigid and low-permeability rock to the fault. This study demonstrates that the proper mechanistic model and optimal well operations need to be accounted for to mitigate unexpected seismic hazards in the presence of the site-specific uncertainty such as hidden/undetected faults and stress regime.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of downhole pressure and fluid-access on the effectiveness of wellbore cement expansion additives

Autogenous shrinkage of wellbore cement widely impairs zonal isolation. MgO-based cement expansion additives (CEAs) can mitigate this shrinkage, or even impart net expansion, by creating porosity through displacive crystal growth-processes. However, both MgO hydration and autogenous shrinkage behaviour depend strongly on stress state. Evaluation of CEA performance in wellbore cements therefore requires testing under elevated pressures representative for subsurface environments. We report experiments addressing the chemical and bulk volume changes that occur in cement hydrating at 10 MPa confining pressure and 90 °C. Volumetric response was investigated as function of MgO concentration, external water supply, and pore pressure decrease through water consumption during reaction. Results show the bulk expansion achieved using MgO-based CEAs diminishes markedly with increasing effective confining pressure or, equivalently, upon restricting fluid supply. This reduced expansion-potential under pressure has profound implications for slurry design, notably regarding CEA-concentrations required to counteract micro-annulus formation while maintaining low cement permeability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiscale petrophysical characterization and flow unit classification of the Minnelusa eolian sandstones

Integration of petrophysical and geological information is critical to simulation of subsurface carbon storage (GCS). In this sense, two depositional facies were identified from the core description and well-log interpretation, namely massive (MS) and cross-bedded (CB) facies groups. Additionally, pore-scale characteristics were studied by a combination of techniques, e.g. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) and mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP). Scanning electron microscope (SEM) and petrographic analyses show that the pore structure is dominantly controlled by the depositional environment and dolomite cementation. NMR-T 2 distributions of MS and CB facies show triple and quadruple modes, respectively. In addition, MICP of high- and low-permeability MS facies samples, and their CB facies group mixtures were collected. The MS sample pore-throat size distribution is uni-modal, while the triple-modal characteristic of the mixtures indicates heterogeneous pore structures at the sub-core scale for CB facies. The reliably estimates of porosity and permeability for both facies groups via NMR techniques and the MLR (Multiple Linear Regression) approach demonstrate the applicability of these techniques to eolian sandstone. Moreover, irreducible water saturation via the T 2 -cutoff method correlates strongly with T 2LM instead of porosity. Finally, the rock quality index and flow zone indicator were calculated based on Combinable Magnetic Resonance (CMR) log interpretations. This provides direct connection to properties measured in the well. Four flow units were classified for both facies groups. Finally, results show that better reservoir quality with significant heterogeneities is observed in the CB facies. This study highlights the importance integrating multiscale petrophysical properties including facies, pore architecture and diagenesis analysis with core- to log-scale property characterization. The results herein validate our reservoir characterization and flow unit classification in eolian reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Differentiable multiphase flow model for physics-informed machine learning in reservoir pressure management

Accurate subsurface reservoir pressure control is extremely challenging due to geological heterogeneity and multiphase fluid-flow dynamics. Predicting behavior in this setting relies on high-fidelity physics-based simulations that are computationally expensive. Yet, the uncertain, heterogeneous properties that control these flows make it necessary to perform many of these expensive simulations, which is often prohibitive. To address these challenges, we introduce a physics-informed machine learning workflow that couples a fully differentiable multiphase flow simulator, which is implemented in the DPFEHM framework with a convolutional neural network (CNN). The CNN learns to predict fluid extraction rates from heterogeneous permeability fields to enforce pressure limits at critical reservoir locations. By incorporating transient multiphase flow physics into the training process, our method enables more practical and accurate predictions for realistic injection-extraction scenarios compared to previous works. To speed up training, we pretrain the model on single-phase, steady-state simulations and then finetune it on full multiphase scenarios, which dramatically reduces the computational cost. We demonstrate that high-accuracy training can be achieved with fewer than three thousand full-physics multiphase flow simulations – compared to previous estimates requiring up to ten million. This drastic reduction in the number of simulations is achieved by leveraging transfer learning from much less expensive single phase simulations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Integration and Demonstration of Monitoring, Modeling, and Prediction of DV-1 Amendment Performance at the Bench Scale: DV-1 Amendment Demonstration

During fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Field Office commissioned Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to conduct applied research aimed at reducing the cost, time, and uncertainty associated with in situ treatment of vadose zone contaminants at the Hanford Site. This report outlines the integration of three key research efforts into a meso-scale demonstration designed to advance field-scale solutions that aim to (1) optimize the delivery of chemical amendments to contaminated soils, (2) reduce uncertainty in amendment delivery performance assessment using advanced monitoring techniques, and (3) provide real-time insights into when and where amendment-induced precipitation reactions occur in the subsurface. To achieve these objectives, the tank-scale (~ 1 cubic meter) Geophysical Imaging of Flow and Transport (GIFT) system was developed. GIFT enables experimental testing of amendment delivery while incorporating automated multi-modal monitoring approaches, including pressure measurements, direct fluid sampling, and remote time-lapse geophysical imaging. The data generated from these monitoring techniques will serve as inputs for a generative artificial-intelligence-driven digital twin – a numerical simulation model designed to honor observed data while quantifying uncertainty in simulation accuracy. Using this simulator, researchers will refine an amendment injection strategy to maximize delivery efficiency within a low-permeability soil zone. Monitoring data will be interpreted through simulated outputs to enhance understanding of the injection process. The efficacy of this integrated approach will be evaluated through direct sampling at the conclusion of the experiment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The circum-Chryse region as a possible example of a hydrologic cycle on Mars: Geologic observations and theoretical evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approx. 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approx. 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approx. 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scarp or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

The Circum-Chryse Region as a Possible Example of a Hydrologic Cycle on Mars: Geologic Observations and Theoretical Evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approximately 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approximately 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approximately 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scrap or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗