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NASA NTRS2018

Multi-Planetary Systems: Observations and Models of Dynamical Interactions

More than 600 multi-planet systems are known. The vast majority of these systems have been discovered by NASA's Kepler spacecraft, but dozens were found using the Doppler technique, the first multi-exoplanet system was identified through pulsar timing, and the most massive system has been found using imaging. More than one-third of the 4000+ planet candidates found by NASA's Kepler spacecraft are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and the large number of such Kepler "multis" tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of Kepler candidate multis are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship. Statistical studies performed on these candidate systems reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness. The characteristics of several of the most interesting confirmed multi-exoplanet systems will also be discussed.HR 8799's four massive planets orbit tens of AU from their host star and travel on nearly circular orbits. PSR B1257+12 has three much smaller planets orbiting close to a neutron star. Both represent extremes and show that planet formation is a robust process that produces a diversity of outcomes. Although both exomoons and Trojan (triangle Lagrange point) planets have been searched for, neither has yet been found.

planet candidates↗

NASA NTRS2018

Transiting Planets from Kepler, K2 & TESS

NASA's Kepler spacecraft, launched in 2009, has been a resounding success. More than 4000 planet candidates have been identified using data from Kepler primary mission, which ended in 2013, and greater than 2000 of these candidates have been verified as bona fide exoplanets. After the loss of two reaction wheels ended the primary mission, the Kepler spacecraft was repurposed in 2014 to observe many fields on the sky for short periods. This new mission, dubbed K2, has led to the discovery of greater than 600 planet candidates, approximately 200 of which have been verified to date; most of these exoplanets are closer to us than the majority of exoplanets discovered by the primary Kepler mission. TESS, launching in 2018, will survey most of the sky for exoplanets, with emphasis on those orbiting nearby and/or bright host stars, making these planets especially well-suited for follow-up observations with other observatories to characterize atmospheric compositions and other properties. More than one-third of the planet candidates found by NASA's are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and such 'multis' account for the majority of candidates that have been verified as true planets. The large number of multis tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of the candidate planetary systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship. Statistical studies performed on these candidate systems reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness. The characteristics of several of the most interesting confirmed Kepler & K2 multi-planet systems will also be discussed.

Lissauer, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2019

Architectures of Kepler's Multi-Transiting Planetary Systems

More than one-third of the 4700 planet candidates found by NASA's Kepler spacecraft are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and such "multis" account for the vast majority of candidates that have been verified as true planets. The large number of multis tells us that flat multi-planet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of the candidate planetary systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship. Statistical studies performed on these candidate systems reveal a great deal about the architecture and dynamics of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness. The characteristics of several of the most interesting confirmed Kepler, K2 & TESS multi-planet systems will also be discussed.

Lissauer, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2018

Kepler's Multiple Planet Systems

More than one-third of the 4700 planet candidates found by NASA’s Kepler spacecraft are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and such “multis” account for the vast majority of candidates that have been verified as true planets.The large number of multis tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of the candidate planetary systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship. Statistical studies performed on these candidate systems reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness. The characteristics of several of the most interesting confirmed Kepler & K2 multi-planet systems will also be discussed.

Lissauer, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud resolving models (CRMs), which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that CRMs agree with observations in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and regional scale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a szrper-parameterization or multi-scale modeling -framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign can provide initial conditions as well as validation through utilizing the Earth Satellite simulators. At Goddard, we have developed a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics. The modeling system consists a coupled GCM-CRM (or MMF); a state-of-the-art weather research forecast model (WRF) and a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model). In these models, the same microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 3ICE), radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models are applied. In addition, a comprehensive unified Earth Satellite simulator has been developed at GSFC, which is designed to fully utilize the multi-scale modeling system. A brief review of the multi-scale modeling system with unified physics/simulator and examples is presented in this article.

Tao, W.K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series

Two dimensions of a dynamical system given by experimental time series are distinguished. Statistical dimension gives a theoretical upper bound for the minimal number of degrees of freedom required to describe the attractor up to the accuracy of the data, taking into account sampling and noise problems. The dynamical dimension is the intrinsic dimension of the attractor and does not depend on the quality of the data. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) provides estimates of the statistical dimension. SSA also describes the main physical phenomena reflected by the data. It gives adaptive spectral filters associated with the dominant oscillations of the system and clarifies the noise characteristics of the data. SSA is applied to four paleoclimatic records. The principal climatic oscillations and the regime changes in their amplitude are detected. About 10 degrees of freedom are statistically significant in the data. Large noise and insufficient sample length do not allow reliable estimates of the dynamical dimension.

Vautard, R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Physical concepts in the development of constitutive equations

Proposed viscoplastic material models include in their formulation observed material response but do not generally incorporate principles from thermodynamics, statistical mechanics, and quantum mechanics. Numerous hypotheses were made for material response based on first principles. Many of these hypotheses were tested experimentally. The proposed viscoplastic theories and the experimental basis of these hypotheses must be checked against the hypotheses. The physics of thermodynamics, statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, and the effects of defects, are reviewed for their application to the development of constitutive laws.

Cassenti, B. N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2017

Updated MISR Dark Water Research Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm - Part 1: Coupled 1.1 km Ocean Surface Chlorophyll a Retrievals with Empirical Calibration Corrections

As aerosol amount and type are key factors in the 'atmospheric correction' required for remote-sensing chlorophyll alpha concentration (Chl) retrievals, the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) can contribute to ocean color analysis despite a lack of spectral channels optimized for this application. Conversely, an improved ocean surface constraint should also improve MISR aerosol-type products, especially spectral single-scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals. We introduce a coupled, self-consistent retrieval of Chl together with aerosol over dark water. There are time-varying MISR radiometric calibration errors that significantly affect key spectral reflectance ratios used in the retrievals. Therefore, we also develop and apply new calibration corrections to the MISR top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance data, based on comparisons with coincident MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) observations and trend analysis of the MISR TOA bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) over three pseudo-invariant desert sites. We run the MISR research retrieval algorithm (RA) with the corrected MISR reflectances to generate MISR-retrieved Chl and compare the MISR Chl values to a set of 49 coincident SeaBASS (SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System) in situ observations. Where Chl(sub in situ) less than 1.5 mg m(exp -3), the results from our Chl model are expected to be of highest quality, due to algorithmic assumption validity. Comparing MISR RA Chl to the 49 coincident SeaBASS observations, we report a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.86, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.25, and a median absolute error (MAE) of 0.10. Statistically, a two-sample Kolmogorov- Smirnov test indicates that it is not possible to distinguish between MISR Chl and available SeaBASS in situ Chl values (p greater than 0.1). We also compare MODIS-Terra and MISR RA Chl statistically, over much broader regions. With about 1.5 million MISR-MODIS collocations having MODIS Chl less than 1.5 mg m(exp -3), MISR and MODIS show very good agreement: r = 0.96, MAE = 0.09, and RMSE = 0.15. The new dark water aerosol/Chl RA can retrieve Chl in low-Chl, case I waters, independent of other imagers such as MODIS, via a largely physical algorithm, compared to the commonly applied statistical ones. At a minimum, MISR's multi-angle data should help reduce uncertainties in the MODIS-Terra ocean color retrieval where coincident measurements are made, while also allowing for a more robust retrieval of particle properties such as spectral single-scattering albedo.

Limbacher, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The use and misuse of statistical analyses

The statistical techniques most often used in space physics include Fourier analysis, linear correlation, auto- and cross-correlation, power spectral density, and superposed epoch analysis. Tests are presented which can evaluate the significance of the results obtained through each of these. Data presented without some form of error analysis are frequently useless, since they offer no way of assessing whether a bump on a spectrum or on a superposed epoch analysis is real or merely a statistical fluctuation. Among many of the published linear correlations, for instance, the uncertainty in the intercept and slope is not given, so that the significance of the fitted parameters cannot be assessed.

Reiff, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Ward, Steven N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

Gardner, Adrian↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Effect of Stabilization Heat Treatments on the Tensile and Creep Behavior of an Advanced Nickel-Based Disk Alloy

As part of NASA s Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, a study of stabilization heat treatment options for an advanced nickel-base disk alloy, ME 209, was performed. Using a simple, physically based approach, the effect of stabilization heat treatments on tensile and creep properties was analyzed in this paper. Solutions temperature, solution cooling rate, and stabilization temperature/time were found to have a significant impact on tensile and creep properties. These effects were readily quantified using the following methodology. First, the effect of solution cooling rate was assessed to determine its impact on a given property. The as-cooled property was then modified by using two multiplicative factors which assess the impact of solution temperature and stabilization parameters. Comparison of experimental data with predicted values showed this physically based analysis produced good results that rivaled the statistical analysis employed, which required numerous changes in the form of the regression equation depending on the property and temperature in question. As this physically based analysis uses the data for input, it should be noted that predictions which attempt to extrapolate beyond the bounds of the data must be viewed with skepticism. Future work aimed at expanding the range of the stabilization/aging parameters explored in this study would be highly desirable, especially at the higher solution cooling rates.

Gayda, John↗

NASA NTRS2016

Canonical Statistical Model for Maximum Expected Immission of Wire Conductor in an Aperture Enclosure

Prediction of the maximum expected electromagnetic pick-up of conductors inside a realistic shielding enclosure is an important canonical problem for system-level EMC design of space craft, launch vehicles, aircraft and automobiles. This paper introduces a simple statistical power balance model for prediction of the maximum expected current in a wire conductor inside an aperture enclosure. It calculates both the statistical mean and variance of the immission from the physical design parameters of the problem. Familiar probability density functions can then be used to predict the maximum expected immission for deign purposes. The statistical power balance model requires minimal EMC design information and solves orders of magnitude faster than existing numerical models, making it ultimately viable for scaled-up, full system-level modeling. Both experimental test results and full wave simulation results are used to validate the foundational model.

Computational electromagnetics↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-mode1 integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2004

An Analysis Methodology for the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument on the Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) has been designed to detect high-energy gamma rays and determine their direction of incidence and energy. We propose a reconstruction algorithm based on recent advances in statistical methodology. This method, alternative to the standard event analysis inherited from high energy collider physics experiments, incorporates more accurately the physical processes occurring in the detector, and makes full use of the statistical information available. It could thus provide a better estimate of the direction and energy of the primary photon.

Morris, Robin D.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Some statistical analysis techniques for the effect of systematic instrument errors on the results of measurements in a space experiment

Mathematical models of certain systematic telemetry signal errors arising during the passage of the signal through the recording and transmitting blocks of the physical instruments aboard the spacecraft are classified and constructed. Statistical analysis methods are used to determine the background function and relative sensitivity coefficients of the channels of a charged particle detector. Results are presented. A block diagram for a method taking into account the effect of distortions is given.

Kondakov, S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1970

Dynamic EKG Study

The use of the dynamic EKG study as a part of periodic health examination is considered to be a valuable complement to other forms of stress testing with its ability to detect abnormal heart responses to stress stimuli. It is believed that statistical correlations of dynamic EKG findings with physical examination results contribute greatly to the understanding of cardiac abnormalities.

Fleck, R. L.↗