Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

High temperature operation of wide bandgap devices continue to be a challenge for the power electronics packages. Thermal performance and reliability are important factors that determine the viability of a bonded interface for operation at high temperatures. In this presentation, we present the technical approach and key results from the research on sintered silver, transient liquid phase alloy, and polymeric materials. A lifetime prediction model that incorporates the thermomechanical behavior of sintered silver at 200C was developed. The copper-aluminum transient alloy completed 350 thermal cycles from -40C to 200C and little increase in the defect level was observed. In addition to material research, we initiated a time-series analysis on the scanning acoustic microscope images of eutectic solder to explore statistical forecasting methods and machine learning techniques. Initial results that report the accuracy of a few different statistical models are presented.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Triphenylphosphine-Containing Polymers to Explore Design Principles for Protein-Mimetic Catalysts

Complex interactions between noncoordinating residues are significant yet commonly overlooked components of macromolecular catalyst function. While these interactions have been demonstrated to impact binding affinities and catalytic rates in metalloenzymes, the roles of similar structural elements in synthetic polymeric catalysts remain underexplored. Using a model Suzuki–Miyuara cross-coupling reaction, we performed a series of systematic studies to probe the interconnected effects of metal–ligand cross-links, electrostatic interactions, and local rigidity in polymer catalysts. To achieve this, a novel bifunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (BisTPPAm) monomer was synthesized and evaluated alongside an analogous monofunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (TPPAm). In model copolymer catalysts, increased initial reaction rates were observed for copolymers untethered by Pd complexation (BisTPPAm-containing) compared to Pd-cross-linked catalysts (TPPAm-containing). Further, incorporating local rigidity through secondary structure-like and electrostatic interactions revealed nonmonotonic relationships between composition and the reaction rate, demonstrating the potential for tunable behavior through secondary-sphere interactions. Lastly, through rigorous cheminformatics featurization strategies and statistical modeling, we quantitated relationships between chemical descriptors of the substrate and reaction conditions on catalytic performance. Collectively, these results provide insights into relationships among the composition, structure, and function of protein-mimetic catalytic copolymers.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2023

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection Limits of Low-mass, Long-period Exoplanets Using Gaussian Processes Applied to HARPS-N Solar Radial Velocities

Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s{sup −1}. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (∼0.5 m s{sup −1}) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (∼0.1 m s{sup −1}) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lethality is Local, but Survival is Systemic: Temporal and Multi-Organ Responses to Chlorine Gas Exposure in a Murine Model

Chlorine gas (Cl2) is a highly toxic chemical associated with both localized lung injury and systemic health effects. While pulmonary damage has been well characterized, the systemic inflammatory and metabolic responses remain poorly understood. We aimed to define the temporal and multi-organ responses to Cl2 exposure in a murine model, with a focus on identifying spatiotemporal inflammation and its impact on survival and lethality. SKH1 mice were exposed for 10 min to varying concentrations of Cl2 (94.4–810 ppm, representative of non-lethal, LD10, and LD50 doses) and monitored for respiratory function, perfusion, and acidosis using organ-specific imaging. At multiple time points (40 min, 6 h, 24 h, and 7 d), we measured phosphoproteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and metabolic hormones in the lungs, heart, cortex, and plasma. Statistical modeling and logistic regression were used to identify biomarkers associated with lethality and survival. We found that lung injury was the primary cause of potential lethality, particularly via early phosphoprotein signaling disruptions. However, survival correlated with early systemic coordination of inflammatory and metabolic signals across organs. Perfusion and acidosis imaging were strongly associated with chemokine and hormone responses. Key survival-associated plasma biomarkers included decreased insulin, increased ghrelin, and decreased eotaxin. While potential lethality from Cl2 exposure is locally driven by pulmonary injury, survival depends on systemic, multi-organ responses that occur rapidly post-exposure. Within this model, our findings identify a potential therapeutic window to enhance survival and suggest candidate biomarkers that may be explored translationally for both triage and treatment of chlorine-related incidents.

chlorine gas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Forward Modeling of Galaxy Catalogs with Normalizing Flows

Abstract Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of the redshift posteriors produced by photometric redshift (photo- z ) estimators is vital for enabling precision cosmology and extragalactic astrophysics with modern wide-field photometric surveys. Evaluating photo- z posteriors on a per-galaxy basis is difficult, however, as real galaxies have a true redshift but not a true redshift posterior. We introduce PZFlow, a Python package for the probabilistic forward modeling of galaxy catalogs with normalizing flows. For catalogs simulated with PZFlow, there is a natural notion of “true” redshift posteriors that can be used for photo- z validation. We use PZFlow to simulate a photometric galaxy catalog where each galaxy has a redshift, noisy photometry, shape information, and a true redshift posterior. We also demonstrate the use of an ensemble of normalizing flows for photo- z estimation. We discuss how PZFlow will be used to validate the photo- z estimation pipeline of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration, and the wider applicability of PZFlow for statistical modeling of any tabular data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning-based approach to plasticity in athermal sheared amorphous packings: Improving softness

The plasticity of amorphous solids undergoing shear is characterized by quasi-localized rearrangements of particles. While many models of plasticity exist, the precise relationship between the plastic dynamics and the structure of a particle’s local environment remains an open question. Previously, machine learning was used to identify a structural predictor of rearrangements called “softness.” Although softness has been shown to predict which particles will rearrange with high accuracy, the method can be difficult to implement in experiments where data are limited and the combinations of descriptors it identifies are often difficult to interpret physically. Here, we address both of these weaknesses, presenting two major improvements to the standard softness method. First, we present a natural representation of each particle’s observed mobility, allowing for the use of statistical models that are both simpler and provide greater accuracy in limited datasets. Second, we employ persistent homology as a systematic means of identifying simple, topologically informed, structural quantities that are easy to interpret and measure experimentally. We test our methods on two-dimensional athermal packings of soft spheres under quasi-static shear. We find that the same structural information that predicts small variations in the response is also predictive of where plastic events will localize. We also find that an excellent accuracy is achieved in athermal sheared packings using simply a particle’s species and the number of nearest neighbor contacts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Modeling Ensemble Properties of Atomically Disordered Materials

Atomic disorder can strongly influence material properties such as charge transport, optical response, and catalytic activity. However, efficiently modeling these disorder effects remains challenging for first-principles methods due to the cost of sampling large configurational spaces and computing complex physical quantities. Recent advances of machine learning techniques, particularly graph neural networks (GNNs), has enabled the efficient and accurate predictions of complex material properties, offering promising tools for studying disordered systems. In this work, we present a general machine-learning-assisted computational framework that integrates equivariant GNNs with Monte Carlo simulations to compute the thermodynamic and ensemble-averaged functional properties of disordered materials. Using the surface-termination-disordered MXene monolayer Ti 3 C 2 T 2–x as a representative system, we find that electrical conductivity exhibits an emergent peak near the order–disorder phase transition temperature due to the interplay between electron scattering and doping. In contrast, optical conductivity remains largely insensitive to local atomic disorder and reflects the global surface chemical composition. These results highlight the role of atomic disorder in affecting material properties and demonstrate the potential of our approach for statistically modeling disorder effects in a wide range of materials such as high-entropy alloys and spin liquids.

MXene↗
DOE OSTI2023

An asymptotic approach for the statistical thermodynamics of certain model systems

In classical statistical thermodynamics, calculating the configuration integral is both vital and elusive. Analytic relations for configuration integrals are desirable for modeling purposes, but it is typically impossible to obtain them. Certain systems become analytically tractable after replacing steep potential energies with harmonic potentials or athermal rigid constraints, but these approximations are often inadequate, especially when modeling the stretching of molecules. It is therefore necessary to develop a systematic approach to improve upon the approximations provided by these reference systems. Here, a general asymptotic approach is introduced, where the configuration integral for the full system is obtained in terms of that of the reference system and several corrections. This asymptotic approach is first demonstrated using the simple example of a classical three-dimensional oscillator. Next, the approach is applied to modeling the stretching of single polymer chains and to modeling thermally assisted crack growth, where results are verified with respect to numerical calculations. Overall, this asymptotic approach is a valid and effective tool for statistical thermodynamics in general.

Buche, Michael Robert↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulating low-energy neutrino interactions with MARLEY

Monte Carlo event generators are a critical tool for the interpretation of data obtained by neutrino experiments. Several modern event generators are available which are well-suited to the GeV energy scale used in studies of accelerator neutrinos. However, theoretical modeling differences make their immediate application to lower energies difficult. In this paper, I present a new event generator, MARLEY, which is designed to better address the simulation needs of the low-energy (tens of MeV and below) neutrino community. The code is written in C++14 with an optional interface to the popular ROOT data analysis framework. The current release of MARLEY (version 1.2.0) emphasizes simulations of the reaction 40 Ar ( ν e , e − ) 40 K ⁎ but is extensible to other channels with suitable user input. This paper provides detailed documentation of MARLEY's implementation and usage, including guidance on how generated events may be analyzed and how MARLEY may be interfaced with external codes such as Geant4. Further information about MARLEY is available on the official website at http://www.marleygen.org. Program title:MARLEY 1.2.0 CPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/4v7zxnc8j3.1 Developer's respository link:http://github.com/MARLEY-MC/marley Code Ocean capsule:https://codeocean.com/capsule/9868179 Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License 3.0 Programming language: C++14 External routines/libraries used: GNU Scientific Library [1,2] (required), ROOT [3,4] (optional) Nature of problem: Simulation of neutrino-nucleus scattering events at energies of tens-of-MeV and below Solution method: Initial two-to-two scattering kinematics are sampled using the allowed approximation differential cross section and tables of precomputed nuclear matrix elements. Subsequent de-excitations of the remnant nucleus are simulated using a Monte Carlo implementation of the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model and tabulated γ-ray decay schemes for discrete nuclear levels. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: Input data are provided with the code that are suitable for producing simulations of the charged-current reaction 40 Ar ( ν e , e − ) 40 K ⁎ , coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering on spin-zero target nuclei, and neutrino-electron elastic scattering on any atomic target. Preparation of new reaction input files (whose format is documented in Appendix B) would enable other reaction channels and nuclear targets to be handled by the existing code framework. Although there is no maximum neutrino energy enforced by the code itself, realistic neutrino-nucleus scattering events may be generated up to roughly 50 MeV. Above this energy, the effects of forbidden nuclear transitions, which are neglected in the current treatment of the cross sections (see section 2.1), become increasingly important.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emissions mitigation technology for advanced water-lean solvent-based CO 2 capture processes

This technical final report submitted to DOE/NETL presents all the research activities performed during the entirety of DE-FE0031660 project-Emissions Mitigation Technology for Advanced Water-Lean Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Processes which spans from October 2018 through March 2022. RTI International has been conducting studies from fundamental and operational aspects to reduce the overall amine emissions from the advanced Water-Lean Solvent (WLS) systems, specifically RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent (NAS). This technical final report will highlight the key findings from project which align closely to the project objectives which are: Identify the contribution of vapor loss, entrainment, and aerosols to the overall emissions of water-lean systems; Determine the significance of CO 2 capture system operating parameters to the amine emissions; Develop an emissions model based on critical operating parameters; Evaluate the effectiveness of emissions mitigation devices to reduce the amine emissions to <1 ppm under flue coal-fired flue gas; and, Determine the contribution of the ECTs to the overall CO 2 capture cost. The following are the key findings based on numerous tests using both lab-scale setups and parametric testing performed at RTI’s Bench-scale Gas Absorption System (BsGAS). During the BP1, the aerosol generation system and monitoring equipment were installed at BsGAS to produce and determine the aerosol characteristics during the NAS CO 2 capture process. The aerosol produced by this setup produced aerosols with the peak diameter and concentration of 50 micron and 1.2E10 7 cm -3 , respectively. These particle sizes and concentrations are matched to those observed in the actual coal-fired power plant flue gases and expected to be found at the absorber inlet of the CO 2 capture system. Over 1,300 hours of parametric testing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of the aerosols and operating conditions during the CO 2 capture with NAS on the overall amine emissions in the treated flue gas. At the worse condition tested, the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from NAS’s vapor pressure. CO 2 capture rate was found to be a main factor impacting the overall emissions as well as aerosol size and concentrations in the absorber off-gas. The higher CO 2 capture rate, the higher amine emissions in the treated gas. The temperature difference between the temperature bulge seen in the absorber and the water wash temperature also impacts the particle growth where the larger the temperature difference, the more amine emissions from aerosols in the treated gas. The majority of the aerosols did not grow substantially in the system, and the particle concentrations remained nearly constant between the absorber inlet and wash outlet. Only a small portion of the particles were found to grow significantly. The high efficiency demister with mesh size of 5-10 micron can be installed to remove a portion of the aerosols from the gas stream leaving the water wash. Overall, these results from parametric testing have established the emission baseline and validate our assumption on the need of emission control technologies (ECT) in order to minimize the emissions from the baseline NAS CO 2 capture process. Over 2,000 of BsGAS operating hours was used to investigate a handful of process improvements which led to a selection of the vital few changes that effectively control the amine emissions. These process improvements are lime-coated-filters for absorber gas inlet, advanced demister at the top of the absorber, a second water wash with amine recovery unit were designed, installed, and tested at BsGAS at the end of BP1. The result showed that the NAS CO 2 capture process with these additional emission control devices could lower the amine emission in the treated gas to about 1 ppm using a simulated coal-fire flue gas stream. The main contributor in lowering the amine emission came from the second water wash with amine recovery unit where the amine concentration in the scrubbing water was kept below 2 wt% through a continuous amine removal via an adsorbent bed, resulting in a low amine vapor pressure. The adsorbent bed was regenerated via a direct steam regeneration and the recover amine was returned to the absorber to minimize wastewater and makeup amine. A flue gas generation system was designed and installed during the first half of BP2 to support the emission testing using a real coal-derived flue gas. The system is capable of generating both coal- and natural gas- derived flue gases with the composition of the gaseous species highly resemble to that of the power plant flue gases. The particulates detected in the coal-derived flue gas showed the mean diameter of 1 micron. The CO 2 capture operating was then proceed using the real coal-derived flue gas where the amine emission was controlled to be about 0-3 ppm for the total run time of about 200 hours. Similar testing was conducted with natural gas-derived flue gas and the result showed a highly amine emission of 30 ppm under the total run time of 200 hours. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Partial Least Squares Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) techniques were applied to the parametric testing data to derive a multivariate statistical model. The model was validated and trained with half of the data collected, and the predictive ability of the model was evaluated using the remaining half of the data. The resulting empirical model was capable of predicting the overall emissions from the NAS process without the ECTs with ±15% accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD) in BP1. As more emission data were obtained under the real coal-flue gas in the BP2, the model incorporated these new set of data to reflect the final process configuration, operating parameters, and amine emission. This results in the updated empirical model predicting the amine emission from the NAS CO 2 capture process with 84% goodness-of-fit (R 2 ), 85% predictability (Q 2 ), and 15% AAD. The study evaluates the use of RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent technology for 90% CO 2 capture from a net 650 MWe pulverized coal power plant, downstream of the flue-gas desulfurization unit. The captured CO 2 has a purity of > 95% CO 2 , and is dried, compressed to 15.3 MPa (2,215 psia), ready for sequestration. The analysis uses Case B12B from the DOE Baseline study on Bituminous Coal, Revision 4 where the Cansolv CO 2 capture plant is replaced by the RTI CO 2 Capture plant. The CO 2 capture plant has been sized to capture >90% CO 2 from flue gas derived from a net 650 MWe supercritical pulverized coal power plant. The CO 2 capture plant is equipped with emission control technologies that limits the amine emissions to < 1 ppm. Two different cases were evaluated for the technoeconomic study. The key difference between the two cases is the regenerator pressure. In Case 1, the regenerator operates at 0.195 MPa (28.3 psia), whereas in Case 2, the regenerator pressure is 0.44 MPa (64 psia) thus removing the need for the first stage of compression of the eight-stage compression train. Results from the TEA are compared against the DOE reference cases for SCPC plant with and without CO 2 Capture (Case B12A and Case B12B of the DOE Baseline study, respectively). Case 2 with CO 2 regeneration at higher pressure results in the lower cost of CO 2 capture. The total capital cost of the capture process has been estimated using 2018 dollars in Aspen Process Economic Analyzer and was estimated to be $579 MM. The capture plant operation leads to a total parasitic power loss rate of 96 MWe, resulting in a decrease in pulverized coal power plant efficiency of 7.8% points. The resulting cost of electric power increases from 64.4 mills/kWh, for no capture, to 97.5 mills/kWh, with 90% capture, an increase of 51% in the COE. The cost of capturing 90% CO 2 was estimated to be $38.2/tonne-CO 2 , and meets the DOE target of $40/t-CO 2 . Emission control technologies (ECT) investigated in this project includes a second water wash with use of activated carbon beds for removal of amine from the wash water prior to recirculation in the water wash. These ECT allow operation of the CO 2 capture plant with < 1 ppm amine emissions with the treated flue gas and contributes to $2.4/t-CO 2 captured. Amine emissions derived from thermal and oxidative degradations were investigated under this project along with the emissions derived from aerosols for the NAS system. The thermally degraded of the lean NAS showed less than 4% decreased of the original total amine content in the NAS at 150 °C while the result obtained at 120 °C showed no drop in total amine content, suggesting that thermal degradation of the NAS is minimal. These results also suggested that the thermally degraded species are not likely formed and contributed to the emissions due to the low regeneration temperature of the NAS at 90-105 °C. The oxidative degradation, on the other hand, could become problematic as some of these oxidative degraded species were observed during the NAS-5 testing at National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and SINTEF in our previous project. The rapid screening of selected inhibitors suggested that oxidative degradation of NAS can be suppressed using thiol containing compounds in amounts of at least 1 mol%. The detailed mechanistic degradation pathway was conceived for a specific amine used in NAS formulation during BP2. he reduction of the nitrosamines caused by the NO x present in the flue gas was also examined. The study suggested that the thermo-chemical treatment of the NAS solvent would be a more effective and economically viable compared to removing NO x at the DCC.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of Processing, Microstructure, and Hardness of an Al–Ce–Ni–Mn–Zr Alloy With Laser Additive Manufacturing

Here, this study examines the processing behavior, microstructure, surface roughness, and hardness properties of an aluminum alloy containing 8.2 Ce, 4.5 Ni, 0.5 Mn, and 0.7 Zr (wt%) fabricated using laser powder bed fusion. Sixty samples were produced across a range of laser powers, scan speeds, and hatch spacings to evaluate their effect on porosity, hardness, and microstructural features. Porosity was measured using X-ray computed tomography, while microstructure and surface roughness were characterized by scanning electron (SEM) and laser confocal microscopy. High dense and cracking-free Al–Ni–Ce alloy was successfully manufactured. Porosity showed a U-shaped dependence on energy input, increasing under both insufficient and excessive melting conditions. Hardness increased with cooling rate due to finer cellular structures and solute redistribution. A general statistical model was developed to capture the relationships between processing parameters and material response. Results identify a narrow processing window defined by laser powers between 350 and 370 W, scan speeds from 1400 to 1800 mm/s, and hatch distances between 0.14 and 0.18 mm. Within this window, porosity is minimized (below 0.01%) and hardness is maximized (up to 160 HV), demonstrating that careful control of these parameters enables dense, high strength aluminum components suitable for demanding structural applications.

Aluminum alloys↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multilaminate Energy Storage Films from Entropy‐Driven Self‐Assembled Supramolecular Nanocomposites

Abstract Composite materials comprising polymers and inorganic nanoparticles (NPs) are promising for energy storage applications, though challenges in controlling NP dispersion often result in performance bottlenecks. Realizing nanocomposites with controlled NP locations and distributions within polymer microdomains is highly desirable for improving energy storage capabilities but is a persistent challenge, impeding the in‐depth understanding of the structure–performance relationship. In this study, a facile entropy‐driven self‐assembly approach is employed to fabricate block copolymer‐based supramolecular nanocomposite films with highly ordered lamellar structures, which are then used in electrostatic film capacitors. The oriented interfacial barriers and well‐distributed inorganic NPs within the self‐assembled multilaminate nanocomposites effectively suppress leakage current and mitigate the risk of breakdown, showing superior dielectric strength compared to their disordered counterparts. Consequently, the lamellar nanocomposite films with optimized composition exhibit high energy efficiency (>90% at 650 MV m −1 ), along with remarkable energy density and power density. Moreover, finite element simulations and statistical modeling have provided theoretical insights into the impact of the lamellar structure on electrical conduction, electric field distribution, and electrical tree propagation. This work marks a significant advancement in the design of organic–inorganic hybrids for energy storage, establishing a well‐defined correlation between microstructure and performance.

Li, He↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fully Inkjet‐Printed, 2D Materials‐Based Field‐Effect Transistor for Water Sensing

Abstract Despite significant progress in solution‐processing of 2D materials, it remains challenging to reliably print high‐performance semiconducting channels that can be efficiently modulated in a field‐effect transistor (FET). Herein, electrochemically exfoliated MoS 2 nanosheets are inkjet‐printed into ultrathin semiconducting channels, resulting in high on/off current ratios up to 10 3 . The reported printing strategy is reliable and general for thin film channel fabrication even in the presence of the ubiquitous coffee‐ring effect. Statistical modeling analysis on the printed pattern profiles suggests that a spaced parallel printing approach can overcome the coffee‐ring effect during inkjet printing, resulting in uniform 2D flake percolation networks. The uniformity of the printed features allows the MoS 2 channel to be hundreds of micrometers long, which easily accommodates the typical inkjet printing resolution of tens of micrometers, thereby enabling fully printed FETs. As a proof of concept, FET water sensors are demonstrated using printed MoS 2 as the FET channel, and printed graphene as the electrodes and the sensing area. After functionalization of the sensing area, the printed water sensor shows a selective response to Pb 2+ in water down to 2 ppb. This work paves the way for additive nanomanufacturing of FET‐based sensors and related devices using 2D nanomaterials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗