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At least 199 records · Page 11

Chain Pooling modeling selection as developed for the statistical analysis of a rotor burst protection experiment

As many as three iterated statistical model deletion procedures were considered for an experiment. Population model coefficients were chosen to simulate a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment having an unfavorable distribution of parameter values. Using random number studies, three model selection strategies were developed, namely, (1) a strategy to be used in anticipation of large coefficients of variation, approximately 65 percent, (2) a strategy to be sued in anticipation of small coefficients of variation, 4 percent or less, and (3) a security regret strategy to be used in the absence of such prior knowledge.

Holms, A. G.↗

Development of a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. II - The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation and their parameterization

The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation was investigated using a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model described by Yao and Stone (1987), which is almost two orders of magnitude faster than the three-dimensional climate model of Hansen et al. (1983). Results show that the vertical structure of the meridional eddy flux has relatively little impact on the general circulation, presumably because the vertical structure is strongly constrained by the thermal wind relation and surface friction. On the other hand, it was found that, in order to simulate accurately the general circulation and its response to climate changes, parameterization of the vertically integrated meridional eddy flux of angular momentum is necessary. A new parameterization of this eddy momentum transport was carried out, which is intended to represent the transport due to large-scale transient eddies arising from baroclinic instability.

Stone, Peter H.↗

Data Science Meets Physical Organic Chemistry

At the heart of synthetic chemistry is the holy grail of predictable catalyst design. In particular, researchers involved in reaction development in asymmetric catalysis have pursued a variety of strategies toward this goal. This is driven by both the pragmatic need to achieve high selectivities and the inability to readily identify why a certain catalyst is effective for a given reaction. While empiricism and intuition have dominated the field of asymmetric catalysis since its inception, enantioselectivity offers a mechanistically rich platform to interrogate catalyst-structure response patterns that explain the performance of a particular catalyst or substrate. In the early stages of an asymmetric reaction development campaign, the overarching mechanism of the reaction, catalyst speciation, the turnover limiting step, and many other details are unknown or posited based on related reactions. Considering the unclear details leading to a successful reaction, initial enantioselectivity data are often used to intuitively guide the ultimate direction of optimization. However, if the conditions of the Curtin-Hammett principle are satisfied, then measured enantioselectivity can be directly connected to the ensemble of diastereomeric transition states (TSs) that lead to the enantiomeric products, and the associated free energy difference between competing TSs (ΔΔ G ‡ = - RT ln[( S )/( R )], where ( S ) and ( R ) represent the concentrations of the enantiomeric products). We, and others, speculated that this important piece of information can be leveraged to guide reaction optimization in a quantitative way. Although traditional linear free energy relationships (LFERs), such as Hammett plots, have been used to illuminate important mechanistic features, we sought to develop data science derived tools to expand the power of LFERs in order to describe complex reactions frequently encountered in modern asymmetric catalysis. Specifically, we investigated whether enantioselectivity data from a reaction can be quantitatively connected to the attributes of reaction components, such as catalyst and substrate structural features, to harness data for asymmetric catalyst design. In this context, we developed a workflow to relate computationally derived features of reaction components to enantioselectivity using data science tools. The mathematical representation of molecules can incorporate many aspects of a transformation, such as molecular features from substrate, product, catalyst, and proposed transition states. Statistical models relating these features to reaction outputs can be used for various tasks, such as performance prediction of untested molecules. Perhaps most importantly, statistical models can guide the generation of mechanistic hypotheses that are embedded within complex patterns of reaction responses. Overall, merging traditional physical organic experiments with statistical modeling techniques creates a feedback loop that enables both evaluation of multiple mechanistic hypotheses and future catalyst design. In this Account, we highlight the evolution and application of this approach in the context of a collaborative program based on chiral phosphoric acid catalysts (CPAs) in asymmetric catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. I - The parameterization of moist convection and its role in the general circulation

The moist convection parameterization used in the GISS 3-D GCM is adapted for use in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. Experiments with different versions of the parameterization show that its impact on the general circulation in the 2-D model does not parallel its impact in the 3-D model unless the effect of zonal variations is parameterized in the moist convection calculations. A parameterization of the variations in moist static energy is introduced in which the temperature variations are calculated from baroclinic stability theory, and the relative humidity is assumed to be constant. Inclusion of the zonal variations of moist static energy in the 2-D moist convection parameterization allows just a fraction of a latitude circle to be unstable and enhances the amount of deep convection. This leads to a 2-D simulation of the general circulation very similar to that in the 3-D model. The experiments show that the general circulation is sensitive to the parameterized amount of deep convection in the subsident branch of the Hadley cell. The more there is, the weaker are the Hadley cell circulations and the westerly jets. The experiments also confirm the effects of momentum mixing associated with moist convection found by earlier investigators and, in addition, show that the momentum mixing weakens the Ferrel cell. An experiment in which the moist convection was removed while the hydrological cycle was retained and the eddy forcing was held fixed shows that moist convection by itself stabilizes the tropics, reduces the Hadley circulation, and reduces the maximum speeds in the westerly jets.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗

UV stars and the interstellar medium - A statistical time-dependent model

A statistical time-dependent model for the effects on the interstellar gas of the ionizing radiation from UV stars is presented. The radiation from the stars is assumed to be emitted as monochromatic bursts at random times and locations. The thermal and ionization history of the gas is followed in a Monte Carlo simulation. Probability densities as well as mean values for the ionization fraction, temperature, and other observable quantities are derived. The fluctuations in observed quantities due to the stochastic nature of the model are estimated. Models of the interstellar medium perpendicular to the galactic plane are developed and compared with observations. The action of the UV stars can explain the bulk properties of the interstellar gas toward the galactic poles and is consistent with the Copernicus satellite observations toward lambda Scorpii.

Lyon, J.↗

Upper-Stratospheric Ozone Trends 1979-1998

Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Newchurch, M. J.↗

coh3

CoH3 (CoH ver.3) is an optical model, exciton pre-equilibrium, and Hauser-Feshbach statistical model code, which calculates nuclear reaction cross sections for medium to heavy targets in the keV to MeV energy region. This program is written in standard C++, divided into approximately 200 source and header files. CoH solves the Schroedinger equation for optical potentials defined in the code, and calculates differential elastic scattering, reaction, and total cross sections, for neutron, proton, deuteron, triton, 3He, and alpha-particle. Deformed optical potentials are solved with the coupled-channels method, in which the ground state rotational band members, or vibrational phonon states are coupled. The optical model gives particle transmission coefficients that are fed into the statistical model calculations. CoH includes the pre-equilibrium model (exciton model), the direct/semidirect capture model, and the multi-stage Hauser-Feshbach statistical decay with width fluctuation correction based on the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble. For weakly coupled levels, the DWBA (distorted wave Born approximation) method is used to calculate the direct inelastic scattering process to the excited states.

Kawano, Toshihiko↗

Simulations of diffusion-reaction equations with implications to turbulent combustion modeling

An enhanced diffusion-reaction reaction system (DRS) is proposed as a statistical model for the evolution of multiple scalars undergoing mixing and reaction in an isotropic turbulence field. The DRS model is close enough to the scalar equations in a reacting flow that other statistical models of turbulent mixing that decouple the velocity field from scalar mixing and reaction (e.g. mapping closure model, assumed-pdf models) cannot distinguish the model equations from the original equations. Numerical simulations of DRS are performed for three scalars evolving from non-premixed initial conditions. A simple one-step reversible reaction is considered. The data from the simulations are used (1) to study the effect of chemical conversion on the evolution of scalar statistics, and (2) to evaluate other models (mapping-closure model, assumed multivariate beta-pdf model).

Girimaji, Sharath S.↗

Comparison of Grammar-Based and Statistical Language Models Trained on the Same Data

This paper presents a methodologically sound comparison of the performance of grammar-based (GLM) and statistical-based (SLM) recognizer architectures using data from the Clarissa procedure navigator domain. The Regulus open source packages make this possible with a method for constructing a grammar-based language model by training on a corpus. We construct grammar-based and statistical language models from the same corpus for comparison, and find that the grammar-based language models provide better performance in this domain. The best SLM version has a semantic error rate of 9.6%, while the best GLM version has an error rate of 6.0%. Part of this advantage is accounted for by the superior WER and Sentence Error Rate (SER) of the GLM (WER 7.42% versus 6.27%, and SER 12.41% versus 9.79%). The rest is most likely accounted for by the fact that the GLM architecture is able to use logical-form-based features, which permit tighter integration of recognition and semantic interpretation.

Hockey, Beth Ann↗

β -delayed neutron emissions from N > 50 gallium isotopes

β-delayed γ-neutron spectroscopy has been performed on the decay of A = 84 to 87 gallium isotopes at the RI-beam Factory at the RIKEN Nishina Center using a high-efficiency array of 3 He neutron counters (BRIKEN). β-2n-γ events were measured in the decays of all of the four isotopes for the first time, which is direct evidence for populating the excited states of two-neutron daughter nuclei. Detailed decay schemes with the γ branching ratios were obtained for these isotopes, and the neutron emission probabilities (P xn ) were updated from the previous study. Hauser-Feshbach statistical model calculations were performed to understand the experimental branching ratios. We found that the P 1n and P 2n values are sensitive to the nuclear level densities of 1n daughter nuclei and showed that the statistical model reproduced the P 2n /P 1n ratio better when experimental levels plus shell-model level densities fit by the Gilbert-Cameron formula were used as the level-density input. We also showed the neutron and γ branching ratios are sensitive to the ground-state spin of the parent nucleus. Our statistical model analysis suggested J ≤ 3 for the unknown ground-state spin of the odd-odd nucleus 86 Ga, from the I γ (4 + → 2 + )/I γ (2 + → 0 + ) ratio of 84 Ga and the P 2n /P 1n ratio. In conclusion, these results show the necessity of detailed understanding of the decay scheme, including data from neutron spectroscopy, in addition to γ measurements of the multineutron emitters.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

First Direct Measurement Constraining the Ar 34 ( α , p ) K 37 Reaction Cross Section for Mixed Hydrogen and Helium Burning in Accreting Neutron Stars

The rate of the final step in the astrophysical αp process, the 34 Ar(α,p) 37 K reaction, suffers from large uncertainties due to a lack of experimental data, despite having a considerable impact on the observable light curves of x-ray bursts and the composition of the ashes of hydrogen and helium burning on accreting neutron stars. Here, we present the first direct measurement constraining the 34Ar(α,p)37K reaction cross section, using the Jet Experiments in Nuclear Structure and Astrophysics gas jet target. The combined cross section for the 34 Ar,Cl(α,p) 37 K,Ar reaction is found to agree well with Hauser-Feshbach predictions. The 34 Ar(α,2p) 36 Ar cross section, which can be exclusively attributed to the 34 Ar beam component, also agrees to within the typical uncertainties quoted for statistical models. This indicates the applicability of the statistical model for predicting astrophysical (α,p) reaction rates in this part of the αp process, in contrast to earlier findings from indirect reaction studies indicating orders-of-magnitude discrepancies. This removes a significant uncertainty in models of hydrogen and helium burning on accreting neutron stars.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Searching for the Beginning of the Ozone Turnaround Using a 22-Year Merged Satellite Data Set

We have used the data from six satellite instruments that measure the total column amount of ozone to construct a consistent merged data set extending from late 1978 into 2000. The keys to constructing a merged data set are to minimize potential drift of individual instruments and to accurately establish instrument-to-instrument offsets. We have used the short-wavelength D-pair measurements (306nm-313nm) of the SBUV and SBUV/2 instruments near the equator to establish a relatively drift-free record for these instruments. We have then used their overlap with the Nimbus 7 and EP TOMS instruments to establish the relative calibration of the various instruments. We have evaluated the drift uncertainty in our merged ozone data (MOD) set by examining both the individual instrument drift uncertainty and the uncertainty in establishing the instrument- to-instrument differences. We conclude that the instrumental drift uncertainty over the 22-year data record is 0.9 %/decade (2-sigma). We have compared our MOD record with 37 ground stations that have a continuous record over that time period. We have a mean drift with respect to the stations of +0.3 %/decade which is within 1-sigma of our uncertainty estimate. Using the satellite record as a transfer standard, we can estimate the capability of the ground instruments to establish satellite calibration. Adding the statistical variability of the station drifts with respect to the satellite to an estimate of the overall drift uncertainty of the world standard instrument, we conclude that the stations should be able to be used to establish the drift of the satellite data record to within and uncertainty of 0.6 %/decade (2-sigma). Adding to this an uncertainty due to the-incomplete global coverage of the stations, we conclude that the station data should be able to establish the global trend with an uncertainty of about 0.7 %/decade, slightly better than for the satellite record. We conclude that merging the two records together gives only a slight improvement in the uncertainty. Keeping them separate gives the greater confidence of two independent measures of the ozone trend and potential recovery. We fit the trend in our MOD record through May of 1991 and then extrapolated forward to see if the data at the end of the record was above the statistical model as a measure of ozone recovery as was done in the last WMO/UNEP assessment report. Because our data set drifts with respect to the ground-stations through May of 1991, we calculated a smaller global trend (-1.1 %/decade) than in the WMO/UNEP report. Our data in 1998 and 1999 was, on average 2 DU above the extrapolated statistical model with a 2-sigma uncertainty of 6 DU. For the combined mid-latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres, the data was 5 DU above the extrapolated statistical model with a 2-sigma uncertainty of 10 DU. These may be signs of recovery, but they are still statistically insignificant.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Simplified model of statistically stationary spacecraft rotation and associated induced gravity environments

A stochastic model of spacecraft motion was developed based on the assumption that the net torque vector due to crew activity and rocket thruster firings is a statistically stationary Gaussian vector process. The process had zero ensemble mean value, and the components of the torque vector were mutually stochastically independent. The linearized rigid-body equations of motion were used to derive the autospectral density functions of the components of the spacecraft rotation vector. The cross-spectral density functions of the components of the rotation vector vanish for all frequencies so that the components of rotation were mutually stochastically independent. The autospectral and cross-spectral density functions of the induced gravity environment imparted to scientific apparatus rigidly attached to the spacecraft were calculated from the rotation rate spectral density functions via linearized inertial frame to body-fixed principal axis frame transformation formulae. The induced gravity process was a Gaussian one with zero mean value. Transformation formulae were used to rotate the principal axis body-fixed frame to which the rotation rate and induced gravity vector were referred to a body-fixed frame in which the components of the induced gravity vector were stochastically independent. Rice's theory of exceedances was used to calculate expected exceedance rates of the components of the rotation and induced gravity vector processes.

Fichtl, G. H.↗

Statistical analysis of modeling error in structural dynamic systems

The paper presents a generic statistical model of the (total) modeling error for conventional space structures in their launch configuration. Modeling error is defined as the difference between analytical prediction and experimental measurement. It is represented by the differences between predicted and measured real eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Comparisons are made between pre-test and post-test models. Total modeling error is then subdivided into measurement error, experimental error and 'pure' modeling error, and comparisons made between measurement error and total modeling error. The generic statistical model presented in this paper is based on the first four global (primary structure) modes of four different structures belonging to the generic category of Conventional Space Structures (specifically excluding large truss-type space structures). As such, it may be used to evaluate the uncertainty of predicted mode shapes and frequencies, sinusoidal response, or the transient response of other structures belonging to the same generic category.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗

Understanding the fusion yield dependencies in OMEGA DT-layered implosion experiments using a physics-based statistical mapping model

Improving the performance of inertial confinement fusion implosions requires physics models that can accurately predict the response to changes in the experimental inputs. Good predictive capability has been demonstrated for the fusion yield using a statistical mapping of simulated outcomes to experimental data [Gopalaswamy et al., Nature 565(771), 581–586 (2019)]. In this paper, a physics-based statistical mapping approach is used to extract and quantify all the major sources of degradation of fusion yield for direct-drive implosions on the OMEGA laser. Here, the yield is found to be dependent on the age of the deuterium tritium fill, the ℓ = 1 asymmetry in the implosion core, the laser beam-to-target size ratio, and parameters related to the hydrodynamic stability. A controlled set of experiments were carried out where only the target fill age was varied while keeping all other parameters constant. The measurements were found to be in excellent agreement with the fill age dependency inferred using the mapping model. In addition, a new implosion design was created, guided by the statistical mapping model by optimizing the trade-offs between increased laser energy coupling at larger target size and the degradations caused by the laser beam-to-target size ratio and hydrodynamic instabilities. When experimentally performed, an increased fusion yield was demonstrated in targets with larger diameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗