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At least 199 records · Page 11

A Simulated Geochemical Rover Mission to the Taurus-Littrow Valley of the Moon

We test the effectiveness of using an alpha backscatter, alpha-proton, X ray spectrometer on a remotely operated rover to analyze soils and provide geologically useful information about the Moon during a simulated mission to a hypothetical site resembling the Apollo 17 landing site. On the mission, 100 soil samples are "analyzed" for major elements at moderate analytical precision (e.g., typical relative sample standard deviation from counting statistics: Si[11%], Al[18%], Fe[6%], Mg[20%], Ca[5%]). Simulated compositions of soils are generated by combining compositions of components representing the major lithologies occurring at the site in known proportions. Simulated analyses are generated by degrading the simulated compositions according to the expected analytical precision of the analyzer. Compositions obtained from the simulated analyses are modeled by least squares mass balance as mixtures of the components, and the relative proportions of those components as predicted by the model are compared with the actual proportions used to generate the simulated composition. Boundary conditions of the modeling exercise are that all important lithologic components of the regolith are known and are represented by model components, and that the compositions of these components are well known. The effect of having the capability of determining one incompatible element at moderate precision (25%) is compared with the effect of the lack of this capability. We discuss likely limitations and ambiguities that would be encountered, but conclude that much of our knowledge about the Apollo 17 site (based on the return samples) regarding the distribution and relative abundances of lithologies in the regolith could be obtained. This success requires, however, that at least one incompatible element be determined.

Korotev, Randy L.↗

Statistical correlation analysis for comparing vibration data from test and analysis

A theory was developed to compare vibration modes obtained by NASTRAN analysis with those obtained experimentally. Because many more analytical modes can be obtained than experimental modes, the analytical set was treated as expansion functions for putting both sources in comparative form. The dimensional symmetry was developed for three general cases: nonsymmetric whole model compared with a nonsymmetric whole structural test, symmetric analytical portion compared with a symmetric experimental portion, and analytical symmetric portion with a whole experimental test. The theory was coded and a statistical correlation program was installed as a utility. The theory is established with small classical structures.

Butler, T. G.↗

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

Krantz, Timothy↗

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗

Statistical mechanics of kinks on a gliding screw dislocation

The ability of a body-centered-cubic metal to deform plastically is limited by the thermally activated glide motion of screw dislocations, which are line defects with a mobility exhibiting complex dependence on temperature, stress, and dislocation segment length. We derive an analytical expression for the velocity of dislocation glide, based on a statistical mechanics argument, and identify an apparent phase transition marked by a crossover temperature above which the activation energy for glide effectively halves, changing from the formation energy of a double kink to that of a single kink. The analysis is in quantitative agreement with direct kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MERRA-2 Data and Analytic Services at NASA GES DISC for Climate Extremes Study

NASA's climate reanalysis datasets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains numerous long-term atmosphere, land, and ocean data products from 1980-present. MERRA-2 datasets, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature, have been used widely to study extreme events. The native archived MERRA-2 data files are day-file (hourly time interval) and month-file, containing up to 125 parameters in one file. Due to the large number of data files and volumes, it is challenging for users, especially the applications research community, to handle the original hourly data files for long time periods to analyze extreme events. In this presentation, we review MERRA-2 data for studies of extreme conditions, and demonstrate analytic services at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). One of the current operational services, 'subsetter', allows users to download only specific data of interest, i.e. data selected by parameter, region, and time period. New services are under development that will provide more 'on-the-fly' statistical calculations when downloading data; improve efficiency when accessing long time-series data. We will provide additional "How-to" resources that include step-by-step instructions on data access and usage. We have tested restructuring of day-files in an optimized data cube, which has significantly improved system performance for accessing long time-series. Overall performance is associated with cube size and structure, data compression method, and how the data are accessed. The optimized data cube structure will enable better online analytic services for statistical analysis and extreme events mining. To demonstrate the service, we use an extreme drought associated with the anomalous 2016 monsoon over southern Asia. This prototype time-series service may be augmented in the cloud infrastructure in the future.

data access↗

The Theory and Practice of Estimating the Accuracy of Dynamic Flight-Determined Coefficients

Means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data are discussed. The most commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are derived and compared from both statistical and simplified geometrics standpoints. The accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data, with an emphasis on practical considerations, such as modeling error. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies due to colored noise and modeling error are presented. The corrected Cramer-Rao bound is shown to be the best available analytical predictor of accuracy, and several practical examples of the use of the Cramer-Rao bound are given. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗

Consistent approach to describing aircraft HIRF protection

The high intensity radiated fields (HIRF) certification process as currently implemented is comprised of an inconsistent combination of factors that tend to emphasize worst case scenarios in assessing commercial airplane certification requirements. By examining these factors which include the process definition, the external HIRF environment, the aircraft coupling and corresponding internal fields, and methods of measuring equipment susceptibilities, activities leading to an approach to appraising airplane vulnerability to HIRF are proposed. This approach utilizes technically based criteria to evaluate the nature of the threat, including the probability of encountering the external HIRF environment. No single test or analytic method comprehensively addresses the full HIRF threat frequency spectrum. Additional tools such as statistical methods must be adopted to arrive at more realistic requirements to reflect commercial aircraft vulnerability to the HIRF threat. Test and analytic data are provided to support the conclusions of this report. This work was performed under NASA contract NAS1-19360, Task 52.

Rimbey, P. R.↗

The influence of surface waves on water circulation in a mid-Atlantic continental shelf region

The importance of wave-induced currents in different weather conditions and water depths (18.3 m and 36.6 m) is assessed in a mid-Atlantic continental-shelf region. A review of general circulation conditions is conducted. Factors which perturb the general circulation are examined using analytic techniques and limited experimental data. Actual wind and wave statistics for the region are examined. Relative magnitudes of the various currents are compared on a frequency of annual occurrence basis. Results indicated that wave-induced currents are often the same order of magnitude as other currents in the region and become more important at higher wind and wave conditions. Wind-wave and ocean-swell characteristics are among those parameters which must be monitored for the analytical computation of continental-shelf circulation.

Whitlock, C. H.↗

Pressure Effects on the Relaxation of an Excited Ethane Molecule in High-Pressure Bath Gases

Here, we use molecular dynamics to calculate the rotational and vibrational energy relaxation of C 2 H 6 in Ar, Kr, and Xe bath gases over a pressure range of 10 to 400 atm and at temperatures of 300 K and 800 K. The C 2 H 6 is instantaneously excited by 80 kcal/mol randomly distributed into both vibrational and rotational modes. The computed relaxation rates show little sensitivity to the identity of the noble gas in the bath. Vibrational relaxation rates show a non-linear pressure dependence at 300 K. At 800 K the reduced range of bath gas densities covered by the range of pressures do not yet show any non-linearity in the pressure dependence. Rotational relaxation is characterized with two relaxation rates. The slower rate is comparable to the vibrational relaxation rate. The faster rate has a linear pressure dependence at 300 K but an irregular, nonlinear pressure dependence at 800 K. To understand this, a model was developed based on approximating the periodic box used in the molecular dynamics simulations by an equal-volume collection of cubes where each cube is sized to allow only single occupancy by the noble gas or the molecule. Combinatorial statistics then leads to a pressure and temperature dependent analytic distribution of the bath gas species the molecule encounters in a collision. This distribution, the dissociation energy of molecule/bath gas complexes and bath gas clusters, and the computed energy release per collision combine to show that only at 300 K is the energy release sufficient to dissociate likely complexes and clusters. This suggests that persistent and pressure-dependent clusters and complexes at 800 K may be responsible for the non-linear pressure dependence of rotational relaxation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ADDGALS: Simulated Sky Catalogs for Wide Field Galaxy Surveys

Abstract We present a method for creating simulated galaxy catalogs with realistic galaxy luminosities, broadband colors, and projected clustering over large cosmic volumes. The technique, denoted Addgals (Adding Density Dependent GAlaxies to Lightcone Simulations), uses an empirical approach to place galaxies within lightcone outputs of cosmological simulations. It can be applied to significantly lower-resolution simulations than those required for commonly used methods such as halo occupation distributions, subhalo abundance matching, and semi-analytic models, while still accurately reproducing projected galaxy clustering statistics down to scales of r ∼ 100 h −1 kpc . We show that Addgals catalogs reproduce several statistical properties of the galaxy distribution as measured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) main galaxy sample, including galaxy number densities, observed magnitude and color distributions, as well as luminosity- and color-dependent clustering. We also compare to cluster–galaxy cross correlations, where we find significant discrepancies with measurements from SDSS that are likely linked to artificial subhalo disruption in the simulations. Applications of this model to simulations of deep wide-area photometric surveys, including modeling weak-lensing statistics, photometric redshifts, and galaxy cluster finding, are presented in DeRose et al., and an application to a full cosmology analysis of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 like data is presented in DeRose et al. We plan to publicly release a 10,313 square degree catalog constructed using Addgals with magnitudes appropriate for several existing and planned surveys, including SDSS, DES, VISTA, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, and Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Acoustic environmental accuracy requirements for response determination

A general purpose computer program was developed for the prediction of vehicle interior noise. This program, named VIN, has both modal and statistical energy analysis capabilities for structural/acoustic interaction analysis. The analytic models and their computer implementation were verified through simple test cases with well-defined experimental results. The model was also applied in a space shuttle payload bay launch acoustics prediction study. The computer program processes large and small problems with equal efficiency because all arrays are dynamically sized by program input variables at run time. A data base is built and easily accessed for design studies. The data base significantly reduces the computational costs of such studies by allowing the reuse of the still-valid calculated parameters of previous iterations.

Pettitt, M. R.↗

Application of strain gages to measure adhesive strains through the thickness of an adhesively-bonded stiffened strip

The purpose of the study is to measure the through-the-thickness strain distribution in an adhesively bonded stiffened strip subject to four-point bending and to compare the distribution with predicted results. Small-strain gages are used for measuring the normal strain in the adhesive layer of the strip. A total of 16 120-ohm encapsulated strain gages were mounted on the adhesive layer, and the specimen was loaded quasi-statistically and never to failure. Both the experimental and analytical results show good correlation and, in particular, a high strain gradient acting near the edge of the adhesive layer.

Lopez, O. F.↗

Modeling and simulation of mobile satellite propagation

Mobile satellite systems are subject to severe fading due to blockage of the line-of-sight (LOS) path by roadside vegetation. A thorough understanding of the fading effects is necessary for the design of a reliable land mobile satellite system (LMSS). Analytical and empirical models are presented for predicting fade statistics for vegetative shadowing of mobile satellite terminals. A software simulator for generating simulated fade data is also presented. A physical model relating physical path parameters to propagation model parameters is presented, and results using the model are shown.

Barts, R. M.↗

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

Comments on the statistical analysis of excess variance in the COBE differential microwave radiometer maps

Cosmic anisotrophy produces an excess variance sq sigma(sub sky) in the Delta maps produced by the Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) on cosmic background explorer (COBE) that is over and above the instrument noise. After smoothing to an effective resolution of 10 deg, this excess sigma(sub sky)(10 deg), provides an estimate for the amplitude of the primordial density perturbation power spectrum with a cosmic uncertainty of only 12%. We employ detailed Monte Carlo techniques to express the amplitude derived from this statistic in terms of the universal root mean square (rms) quadrupole amplitude, (Q sq/RMS)(exp 0.5). The effects of monopole and dipole subtraction and the non-Gaussian shape of the DMR beam cause the derived (Q sq/RMS)(exp 0.5) to be 5%-10% larger than would be derived using simplified analytic approximations. We also investigate the properties of two other map statistics: the actual quadrupole and the Boughn-Cottingham statistic. Both the sigma(sub sky)(10 deg) statistic and the Boughn-Cottingham statistic are consistent with the (Q sq/RMS)(exp 0.5) = 17 +/- 5 micro K reported by Smoot et al. (1992) and Wright et al. (1992).

Wright, E. L.↗

Analytical Bit-Error Model of NAND Flash Memories for Dosimetry Application

In this work, we provide an analytical model for the total ionizing dose (TID) effects on the bit error statistics of commercial flash memory chips. We have validated the model with experimental data collected by irradiating several commercial NAND flash memory chips from different technology nodes. We find that our analytical model can project bit errors at higher TID values (~ 20 krad(Si)) from measured data at lower TID values (<1 krad(Si)). Based on our model and the measured data, we have formulated basic design rules for using a commercial flash memory chip as a dosimeter. We discuss the impact of NAND chip-to-chip variability, noise margin and the intrinsic errors on the dosimeter design using detailed experimentation.

3-D NAND↗