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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Discovering multi-scale co-occurrence patterns of asthma and influenza with the Oak Ridge bio-surveillance toolkit

Here, we describe a data-driven unsupervised machine learning approach to extract geo-temporal co-occurrence patterns of asthma and the flu from large-scale electronic healthcare reimbursement claims (eHRC) datasets. Specifically, we examine the eHRC data from 2009 to 2010 pandemic H1N1 influenza season and analyze whether different geographic regions within the United States (US) showed an increase in co-occurrence patterns of the flu and asthma. Our analyses reveal that the temporal patterns extracted from the eHRC data show a distinct lag time between the peak incidence of the asthma and the flu. While the increased occurrence of asthma contributed to increased flu incidence during the pandemic, this co-occurrence is predominant for female patients. The geo-temporal patterns reveal that the co-occurrence of the flu and asthma are typically concentrated within the south-east US. Further, in agreement with previous studies, large urban areas (such as New York, Miami, and Los Angeles) exhibit co-occurrence patterns that suggest a peak incidence of asthma and flu significantly early in the spring and winter seasons. Together, our data-analytic approach, integrated within the Oak Ridge Bio-surveillance Toolkit platform, demonstrates how eHRC data can provide novel insights into co-occurring disease patterns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

A new and effective method for thermostatting confined fluids

We present a simple thermostatting method suitable for nanoconfined fluid systems. Two conventional strategies involve thermostatting the fluid directly or employing a thermal wall that couples only the wall atoms with the thermostat. When only a thermal wall is implemented, the temperature control of the fluid is true to the actual experiment and the heat is transferred from the fluid to the walls. However, for large or complex systems it can often be computationally prohibitive to employ thermal walls. To overcome this limitation many researchers choose to freeze wall atoms and instead apply a synthetic thermostat to the fluid directly through the equations of motion. This, however, can have serious consequences for the mechanical, thermodynamic, and dynamical properties of the fluid by introducing unphysical behaviour into the system [Bernardi et al., J. Chem. Phys. 132, 244706 (2010)]. In this paper, we propose a simple scheme which enables working with both frozen walls and naturally thermostatted liquids. This is done by superimposing the walls with oscillating particles, which vibrate on the edge of the fluid control volume. These particles exchange energy with the fluid molecules, but do not interact with wall atoms or each other, thus behaving as virtual particles. Their displacements violate the Lindemann criterion for melting, in such a way that the net effect would not amount to an additional confining surface. One advantage over standard techniques is the reduced computational cost, particularly for large walls, since they can be kept rigid. Another advantage over accepted strategies is the opportunity to freeze complex charged walls such as β-cristobalite. The method furthermore overcomes the problem with polar fluids such as water, as thermalized charged surfaces require higher spring constants to preserve structural stability, due to the effects of strong Coulomb interactions, thus inevitably degrading the thermostatting efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Results of a Soil Flushing Treatability Test for Hanford Site Hexavalent Chromium Removal - 20446

U.S. Department of Energy contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company has made significant progress remediating hexavalent chromium in groundwater near the Columbia River through the operation of pump and treat facilities and source removal activities. To mitigate risks associated with hexavalent chromium contamination, which was identified in a CERCLA interim action record of decision as the primary groundwater contaminant of concern for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit from discharging to the Columbia River, three ion-exchange pump and treat systems were installed between 1997 and 2009. Between 2010 and 2016, operation of the K West pump and treat system, located near the former 105K West plutonium production reactor, reduced concentrations below the groundwater remediation target for hexavalent chromium. In 2016, a rebound study was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the pump and treat remedy and assess the potential for any residual hexavalent chromium sources continuing to contribute to groundwater contamination. As a result of the rebound study, a source of continued groundwater contamination was identified. To address this condition, a soil flushing treatability test was written and approved by the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The test included saturating about a 1-acre area of soil with treated water with the goal of forcing the residual hexavalent chromium to groundwater where existing extraction wells could remove it for treatment, accelerating the cleanup process. In spring and summer 2019, CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company installed and began operating a shallow underground leach system to support the treatability test. Preliminary sampling data show the test was effective in removing the residual contamination. Following further evaluation and analysis from the initial test, the process will be considered for implementation elsewhere on the Hanford Site, particularly at locations where there is a known or suspected continuing contamination source in the soil column. The paper will cover the goals of the study, as well as more details about the following: - Overview of pump and treat exit strategy (using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance); - The design and installation of the soil flushing technology in the 100-K Area; - The testing process and results of sampling data; - Post-study evaluation and potential for implementation in other locations at the Hanford Site. Innovative solutions for cleanup, such as the soil flushing technology, have resulted in substantial progress in the removal of groundwater contaminants at the Hanford Site, potentially shortening the time frame required to meet cleanup goals and resulting in significant cost savings. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of Ice Cloud–Precipitation of Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Plains

Abstract In this study, the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are tracked using high-resolution radar and satellite observations over the U.S. Great Plains during April–August from 2010 to 2012. The spatiotemporal variability of MCS precipitation is then characterized using the Stage IV product. We found that the spatial variability and nocturnal peaks of MCS precipitation are primarily driven by the MCS occurrence rather than the precipitation intensity. The tracked MCSs are further classified into convective core (CC), stratiform rain (SR), and anvil clouds regions. The spatial variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the SR regions of MCSs are not as significant as those of MCS precipitation. In the SR regions, the high-resolution, long-term ice cloud microphysical properties [ice water content (IWC) and ice water paths (IWPs)] are provided. The IWCs generally decrease with height. Spatially, the IWC, IWP, and precipitation are all higher over the southern Great Plains than over the northern Great Plains. Seasonally, those ice and precipitation properties are all higher in summer than in spring. Comparing the peak timings of MCS precipitation and IWPs from the diurnal cycles and their composite evolutions, it is found that when using the peak timing of IWPSR as a reference, the heaviest precipitation in the MCS convective core occurs earlier, while the strongest SR precipitation occurs later. The shift of peak timings could be explained by the stratiform precipitation formation process. The IWP and precipitation relationships are different at MCS genesis, mature, and decay stages. The relationships and the transition processes from ice particles to precipitation also depend on the low-level humidity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Detection of long-term trends in carbon accumulation by forests in Northeastern U.S. and determination of causal factors (Final Report)

The overall project goal was to quantify the trends and variability for Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 , H 2 O, and energy by northeastern forests, with particular attention to the role of succession, differences in species composition, legacies of past land use, and disturbances. Measurements included flux measurements and observations of biomass accumulation using ecosystem modeling as a framework for data interpretation. Continuation of the long-term record at the Environmental Measurement Site (EMS) Tower was a priority. The final quality-assured CO 2 -flux data now extend through 2010. Data through 2011 are collected but not yet finalized. Biomass observations on the plot array centered on the tower are extended to 2011. Two additional towers in a hemlock stand (HEM) and a younger deciduous stand (LPH) complement the EMS tower by focusing on stands with different species composition or age distribution and disturbance history, but comparable climate and soil type. Over the period since 1993 the forest has added 24.4 Mg-C ha -1 in the living trees. Annual net carbon uptake had been increasing from about 2 Mg-C ha -1 y -1 in the early 1990s to nearly 6 Mg-C ha -1 y -1 by 2008, but declined in 2009-2010. We attribute the increasing carbon uptake to a combination of warmer temperatures, increased photosynthetic efficiency, and increased influence by subcanopy hemlocks that are active in the early spring and late autumn when temperatures are above freezing but the deciduous canopy is bare. Not all of the increased carbon accumulation was found in woody biomass. Results from a study using data to optimize parameters in an ecosystem process model indicate that significant changes in model parameters for photosynthetic capacity and shifts in allocation to slow cycling soil organic matter are necessary for the model to match the observed trends. The emerging working hypothesis is that the pattern of increasing carbon uptake over the early 2000's represents a transient pulse that will eventually end as decomposition of the accumulated carbon catches up.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal and Long‐Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress

Abstract Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007–2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS‐derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Agricultural green revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) record displays a prominent seasonal cycle that arises mainly from changes in vegetation growth and the corresponding CO2 uptake during the boreal spring and summer growing seasons and CO2 release during the autumn and winter seasons. The CO2 seasonal amplitude has increased over the past five decades, suggesting an increase in Northern Hemisphere biospheric activity. It has been proposed that vegetation growth may have been stimulated by higher concentrations of CO2 as well as by warming in recent decades, but such mechanisms have been unable to explain the full range and magnitude of the observed increase in CO2 seasonal amplitude. Here we suggest that the intensification of agriculture (the Green Revolution, in which much greater crop yield per unit area was achieved by hybridization, irrigation and fertilization) during the past five decades is a driver of changes in the seasonal characteristics of the global carbon cycle. Our analysis of CO2 data and atmospheric inversions shows a robust 15 per cent long-term increase in CO2 seasonal amplitude from 1961 to 2010, punctuated by large decadal and interannual variations. Using a terrestrial carbon cycle model that takes into account high-yield cultivars, fertilizer use and irrigation, we find that the long-term increase in CO2 seasonal amplitude arises from two major regions: the mid-latitude cropland between 256N and 606N and the high-latitude natural vegetation between 506N and 706 N. The long-term trend of seasonal amplitude increase is 0.311 ± 0.027 percent per year, of which sensitivity experiments attribute 45, 29 and 26 per cent to land-use change, climate variability and change, and increased productivity due to CO2 fertilization, respectively. Vegetation growth was earlier by one to two weeks, as measured by the mid-point of vegetation carbon uptake, and took up 0.5 petagrams more carbon in July, the height of the growing season, during 2001–2010 than in 1961–1970, suggesting that human land use and management contribute to seasonal changes in the CO2 exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere.

Zeng, Ning↗
DOE OSTI2013

ENIGMATIC RECURRENT PULSATIONAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACCRETING WHITE DWARF EQ LYN (SDSS J074531.92+453829.6)

Photometric observations of the cataclysmic variable EQ Lyn (SDSS J074531.92+453829.6), acquired from 2005 October to 2006 January, revealed high-amplitude variability in the range 1166-1290 s. This accreting white dwarf underwent an outburst in 2006 October, during which its brightness increased by at least five magnitudes, and it started exhibiting superhumps in its light curve. Upon cooling to quiescence, the superhumps disappeared and it displayed the same periods in 2010 February as prior to the outburst within the uncertainties of a couple of seconds. This behavior suggests that the observed variability is likely due to nonradial pulsations in the white dwarf star, whose core structure has not been significantly affected by the outburst. The enigmatic observations begin with an absence of pulsational variability during a multi-site campaign conducted in 2011 January-February without any evidence of a new outburst; the light curve is instead dominated by superhumps with periods in the range of 83-87 minutes. Ultraviolet Hubble Space Telescope time-series spectroscopy acquired in 2011 March reveals an effective temperature of 15,400 K, placing EQ Lyn within the broad instability strip of 10,500-16,000 K for accreting pulsators. The ultraviolet light curve with 90% flux from the white dwarf shows no evidence of any pulsations. Optical photometry acquired during 2011 and Spring 2012 continues to reflect the presence of superhumps and an absence of pulsations. Subsequent observations acquired in 2012 December and 2013 January finally indicate the disappearance of superhumps and the return of pulsational variability with similar periods as previous data. However, our most recent data from 2013 March to May reveal superhumps yet again with no sign of pulsations. We speculate that this enigmatic post-outburst behavior of the frequent disappearance of pulsational variability in EQ Lyn is caused either by heating the white dwarf beyond the instability strip due to an elevated accretion rate, disrupting pulsations associated with the He II instability strip by lowering the He abundance of the convection zone, free geometric precession of the entire system, or appearing and disappearing disk pulsations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation at the ARM SGP site: Cloud radar observations and simulations from the multiscale modeling framework

Millimeter Wavelength Cloud Radar (MMCR) data from December 1996 to December 2010, collected at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, are used to examine the diurnal cycle of hydrometeor occurrence. These data are categorized into clouds (-40 dBZ e ≤ reflectivity < -10 dBZ e ), drizzle and light precipitation (-10 dBZ e ≤ reflectivity < 10 dBZ e ), and heavy precipitation (reflectivity ≥ 10 dBZ e ). The same criteria are implemented for the observation-equivalent reflectivity calculated by feeding outputs from a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model into a radar simulator. The MMF model consists of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model with conventional cloud parameterizations replaced by a cloud-resolving model. We find that a radar simulator combined with the simple reflectivity categories can be an effective approach for evaluating diurnal variations in model hydrometeor occurrence. It is shown that the MMF only marginally captures observed increases in the occurrence of boundary layer clouds after sunrise in spring and autumn and does not capture diurnal changes in boundary layer clouds during the summer. Above the boundary layer, the MMF captures reasonably well diurnal variations in the vertical structure of clouds and light and heavy precipitation in the summer but not in the spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Implementation of ASME Code, Section XI, Code Case N-770, on Alternative Examination Requirements for Class 1 Butt Welds Fabricated with Alloy 82/182

In May 2010, the NRC issued a proposed notice of rulemaking that includes a provision to add a new section to its rules to require licensees to implement ASME Code Case N-770, ‘‘Alternative Examination Requirements and Acceptance Standards for Class 1 PWR Piping and Vessel Nozzle Butt Welds Fabricated with UNS N06082 or UNS W86182 Weld Filler Material With or Without the Application of Listed Mitigation Activities, Section XI, Division 1,’’ with 15 conditions. Code Case N-770 contains baseline and inservice inspection (ISI) requirements for unmitigated butt welds fabricated with Alloy 82/182 material and preservice and ISI requirements for mitigated butt welds. The NRC stated that application of ASME Code Case N-770 is necessary because the inspections currently required by the ASME Code, Section XI, were not written to address stress corrosion cracking Alloy 82/182 butt welds, and the safety consequences of inadequate inspections can be significant. The NRC expects to issue the final rule incorporating this code case into its regulations in the spring 2011 time frame. This paper discusses the new examination requirements, the conditions that NRC is imposing , and the major concerns with implementation of the new Code Case.

alloy 82/182↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2017

Small Scale Field Test Demonstrating CO 2 Sequestration In Arbuckle Saline Aquifer And By CO 2 -Eor At Wellington Field, Sumner County, Kansas

The objectives of this project are to understand the processes that occur when a maximum of 70,000 metric tonnes of CO 2 are injected into two different formations to evaluate the response in different lithofacies and depositional environments. The evaluation will be accomplished through the use of both in situ and indirect MVA (monitoring, verification, and accounting) technologies. The project will optimize for carbon storage accounting for 99% of the CO 2 using lab and field testing and comprehensive characterization and modeling techniques. Site characterization and CO 2 injection should demonstrate state-of-the-art MVA tools and techniques to monitor and visualize the injected CO 2 plume and to refine geomodels developed using nearly continuous core, exhaustive wireline logs, and well tests and a multi-component 3-D seismic survey. Reservoir simulation studies will map the injected CO 2 plume and estimate tonnage of CO 2 stored in solution, as residual gas, and by mineralization and integrate MVA results and reservoir models shall be used to evaluate CO 2 leakage. A rapid-response mitigation plan was developed to minimize CO 2 leakage and provide a comprehensive risk management strategy. The CO 2 was intended to be supplied from a reliable facility and have an adequate delivery and quality of CO 2 . However, several unforeseen circumstances complicated this plan: (1) the initially negotiated CO 2 supply facility went offline and contracts associated with CO 2 supply had to be renegotiated, (2) a UIC Class VI permit proved to be difficult to obtain due to the experimental nature of the project. Both subjects are detailed in separate deliverables attached to this report. The CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and geologic storage in Mississippian carbonate reservoir was sucessully deployed. Approximately 20,000 metric tons of CO 2 was injected in the upper part of the Mississippian reservoir to verify CO 2 EOR viability in carbonate reservoirs and evaluate a potential of transitioning to geologic CO 2 storage through EOR. A total of 1,101 truckloads, 19,803 metric tons—an average of 120 tonnes per day—were delivered over the course of injection that lasted from January 9 to June 21, 2016. After cessation of CO 2 injection, the KGS 2-32 well was converted to water injector and continues to operate. CO 2 EOR progression in the field was monitored weekly with fluid level, temperature, and production recording and formation fluid composition sampling. It is important to note that normally, CO 2 EOR pilots are less efficient than commercial operations due to lack of directional and precise well control, lack of surface facilities for CO 2 recycling, and other factors. As a result of this pilot CO 2 injection, the observed incremental average oil production increase was ~68% with only ~18% of injected CO 2 produced back. Decline curve analysis forecasts of additional cumulative oil produced were 32.44M STB to the end of 2027. Wellington Mississippian pilot efficiency by the end of forecast calculations is 11 MCF per barrel of produced oil. Using 32M STB oil production and $1,964,063 cost of CO 2 , CO 2 EOR cost per barrel of oil production is ~$60. Simple but robust monitoring technologies proved to be very efficient in detecting and locating CO 2 . High CO 2 reservoir retentions with low yields within an actively producing field could help to estimate real-world risks of CO 2 geological storage for future projects. The Wellington Field CO 2 EOR was executed in a controlled environment with high efficiency. This case study proves that CO 2 EOR could be successfully applied in Kansas carbonate reservoirs if CO 2 sources and associated infrastructure are available. Recent developments in unconventional resources development in Mid-Continent USA and associated large volume disposal of backflow water and the resulting seismic activity have brought more focus and attention to the Arbuckle Group in southern Kansas. Despite the commercial interest, limited essential information about reservoir properties and structural elements has impeded the management and regulation of disposal, an issue brought to the forefront by recent seismicity in and near areas of large volumes and rates of brine disposal. The Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) collected, compiled, and analyzed available data, including well logs, core data, step rate tests, drill stem tests, 2-D and 3-D seismic data, water level measurements, and others types of data. Several exploratory wells were drilled and core was collected and modern suites of logs were analyzed. Reservoir properties were populated into several site-specific geological models. The geological models illustrate the highly heterogeneous nature of the Arbuckle Group. Vertical and horizontal variability results in several distinct hydro-stratigraphic units that are the result of both depositional and diagenetic processes. During the course of this project, it has been demonstrated that advanced seismic interpretation methods can be used successfully for characterization of the Mississippian reservoir and Arbuckle saline aquifer. Analysis of post-stack 3-D seismic data at the Mississippian reservoir showed the response of a gradational velocity transition. Pre-stack gather analysis showed that porosity zones of the Mississippian and Arbuckle reservoirs exhibit characteristic amplitude versus offset (AVO) response. Simultaneous AVO inversion estimated P- and S-impedances. The 3-D survey gather azimuthal anisotropy analysis (AVAZ) provided information about the fault and fracture network and showed good agreement to the regional stress field and well data. Mississippian reservoir porosity and fracture predictions agreed well with the observed mobility of injected CO 2 in KGS well 2-32. Fluid substitution modeling predicted acoustic impedance reduction in the Mississippian carbonate reservoir introduced by the presence of CO 2 . Seismicity in the United States midcontinent has increased by orders of magnitude over the past decade. Spatiotemporal correlations of seismicity to wastewater injection operations have suggested that injection-related pore fluid pressure increases are inducing the earthquakes. In this investigation, we examine earthquake occurrence in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma and its relation to the change in pore pressure. The main source of data comes from the Wellington Array in the Wellington oil field, in Sumner County, Kansas, which has monitored for earthquakes in central Sumner County, Kansas, since early 2015. The seismometer array was established to monitor CO 2 injection operations at Wellington Field. Although no seismicity was detected in association with the spring 2016 Mississippian CO 2 injection, the array has recorded more than 2,500 earthquakes in the region and is providing valuable understanding to induced seismicity. A catalog of earthquakes was built from this data and was analyzed for spatial and temporal changes, stress information, and anisotropy information. The region of seismic concern has been shown to be expanding through use of the Wellington earthquake catalog, which has revealed a northward progression of earthquake activity reaching the metropolitan area of Wichita. The stress orientation was also calculated from this earthquake catalog through focal mechanism inversion. The calculated stress orientation was confirmed through comparison to other stress measurements from well data and previous earthquake studies in the region. With this knowledge of the stress orientation, the anisotropy in the basement could be understood. This allowed for the anisotropy measurements to be correlated to pore pressure increases. The increase in pore pressure was monitored through time-lapse shear-wave anisotropy analysis. Since the onset of the observation period in 2010, the orientation of the fast shear wave has rotated 90°, indicating a change associated with critical pore pressure build up. The time delay between fast and slow shear wave arrivals has increased, indicating a corresponding increase in anisotropy induced by pore pressure rise. In-situ near-basement fluid pressure measurements corroborate the continuous pore pressure increase revealed by the shear-wave anisotropy analysis over the earthquake monitoring period. This research is the first to identify a change in pore fluid pressure in the basement using seismological data and it was recently published in the AAAS journal Science Advances (Nolte et al., 2017). The shear-wave splitting analysis is a novel application of the technique, which can be used in other regions to identify an increase in pore pressure. This increasing pore fluid pressure has become more regionally extensive as earthquakes are occurring in southern Kansas, where they previously were absent. These monitoring techniques and analyses provide new insight into mitigating induced seismicity’s impact on society.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS2011

Biogeochemical Impact of Long-Range Transported Dust over Northern South China Sea

Transpacific transport and impact of Asian dust aerosols have been well documented (e.g., results from ACE-Asia and regional follow-on campaigns), but little is known about dust invasion to the South China Sea (SCS). On 19-21 March 2010, a fierce Asian dust storm affected large areas from the Gobi deserts to the West Pacific, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. As a pilot study of the 7-SEAS (Seven South East Asian Studies) in the northern SCS, detailed characteristics of long-range transported dust aerosols were first observed by a comprehensive set of ground-based instruments deployed at the Dongsha islands (20deg42'52" N, 116deg43'51" E). Aerosol measurements such as particle mass concentrations, size distribution, optical properties, hygroscopicity, and vertical profiles help illustrate the evolution of this dust outbreak. Our results indicate that these dust particles were mixed with anthropogenic and marine aerosols, and transported near the surface. Satellite assessment of biogeochemical impact of dust deposition into open oceans is hindered by our current inability in retrieving areal dust properties and ocean colors over an extensive period of time, particularly under the influence of cloudy conditions. In this paper, we analyze the changes of retrieved Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration over the northern SCS, considered as oligotophic waters in the spring, from long-term SeaWiFS measurements since 1997. Over the past decade, six long-range transported dust events are identified based on spatiotemporal evolutions of PM10 measurements from regional monitoring stations, with the aid of trajectory analysis. Multi-year composites of Chl-a imagery for dust event and non-dust background during March-April are applied to overcome insufficient retrievals of Chl-a due to cloudy environment. Due to anthropogenic modification within a shallow boundary layer off the densely populated and industrial southeast coast of China, the iron ion activation of deliquescent dust particles enhances the efficiency of fertilization for biological productivity. Compared to the West Pacific, the marine ecosystem in the northern SCS is much more susceptible to the biogeochemical impact of long-range transported Asian dust.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sea Ice Effect on Arctic Precipitation Field Campaign Report

This campaign, entitled Sea Ice Effect on Arctic Precipitation, started in January 2010 and ended in December 2016. The campaign involved sampling precipitation, storm by storm, within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility observatory at Barrow, Alaska. Before the ARM Atqasuq, Alaska site was closed in September, 2014, precipitation samples were also collected at Atqasuq. The objective of this campaign was to study how sea ice retreat under warming conditions affects the arctic hydrological cycle, namely evaporation and precipitation, using oxygen and hydrogen isotopic measurements in precipitation. One of the roles of sea ice in the arctic climate system is to influence evaporative fluxes from the sea surface. When sea ice melts, the evaporation is promoted from the newly opened sea surface, which increases the moisture supply, and precipitation. Reduction of sea ice cover may feed back to the climate system in several ways. First, it affects the latent heat flux from the sea surface. Second, the increased precipitation in the Arctic may change the surface albedo. For example, if the increased precipitation falls as snow, it would increase the albedo in spring due to delayed melting. Both mechanisms would affect the radiation balance of the Arctic and thus induce additional climate change. Stable isotopic ratios in precipitation record meteorological conditions from the moisture source through the transport path and to the precipitation site. If moisture from the arctic sea surface increases, the average transport distance would decrease. This would result in an enrichment of oxygen-18 and deuterium in precipitation. Samples collected at Barrow allow us to track the moisture source areas for each sampled storm and analyze if the sea ice change is associate with systematic shift of hydrological conditions. Between July 2011 and December 2014, Barrow was one of the sites in a network of pan-Arctic precipitation observations in the project called iisPacs, standing for Isotopic Investigation of Precipitation in Sea ice in the Arctic Climate System. The project included eight stations where precipitation was collected following the protocols developed in Barrow and Atqasuq. These stations included Barrow and Atqasuq, Alaska, Cambridge Bay, Canada, Ny Ålesund, Norway, Ikerasaarsuk and Summit, Greenland, and Chersky and Tiksi, Russia. Currently, synthesizing data from all of these stations is in progress.

arctic processes, sea ice, North Slope of Alaska, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Related Trends of Within-Storm Intensities Using Dimensionless Temporal-Storm Distributions

Huff curves are probabilistic time distributions of rainfall expressed as dimensionless cumulative percentages of storm depth and duration. Previous studies have documented development factors, spatial robustness, and the utility of Huff curves in practical applications. However, the effects of trending rainfall on Huff curve intensity patterns have not yet been studied. As such, the goal of this paper is to fill this gap by studying Huff curve patterns in a watershed with demonstrated increasing trends of temperature and precipitation, with the intention that it can be generalized to other areas in the US and the world. To achieve this goal, the high temporal resolution precipitation data collected from a high spatial density, 72-year precipitation-gauge network on the 4.25-km 2 North Appalachian Experimental Watershed in east-central Ohio were used. Seasonal storm pattern trends from 1939 to 2010 were investigated using dimensionless depth (with the frequency of 50%, $d_{50}$) and the curve variability $(V = d_{80} - d_{20})$ at three dimensionless within-storms time periods (three verticals). The Spearman rank correlation procedure (correlation coefficient, ρ and significance probability, p) was used to statistically determine trends over time using 8 periods of 4-season sets of Huff curves over the 72 years. Two averages of ρ and p were computed: (1) by averaging the individual ρ and p obtained from 10 gauges (AvgI); and (2) by grouped averaging of all individual gauge values of $d_{50}$ and V and then computing ρ and p (AvgG). The test results of individual gauges showed that 4 cases for $d_{50}$ and 23 cases for V were significant for all seasons and verticals (total of 120 cases for each variable). The test results of AvgI for $d_{50}$ and V and AvgG for $d_{50}$ showed no significant trends in all seasons and verticals. Only the AvgG for V led to a significant trend for V in spring and fall at different times within storm patterns. The data do not provide sufficient evidence at the p=0.05 significance level to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging position of the dimensionless depth of the 50% Huff curves for individual or averages for all seasons and verticals. Also, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging variability, V, using the average ρ of individual gauges (AvgI for V) for all seasons and verticals. AvgG results showed a significant trend in V; however, this analysis may be affected by the nonindependence of storm data. The results suggest that it is likely that there is little if any effect of trending climate over approximately 70 years on Huff curve patterns. The results of this study add to the robustness characteristics of Huff curves and to their potential use in hydrological practice as design storms, as the foundation of stochastic storm generation, and for storm disaggregation, and they deserve further investigation. These different forms of inputs to watershed models have the potential to improve runoff estimation. The results suggest that, if verified in other studies, they have applicability to provide useful stationary precipitation patterns across the US and other areas of the world in areas of nonstationary climate. Also, individual rain gauge data may not be representative of trends even over small areas, and seasonal differences were noticeable as found in other studies. Recommendations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

RDI's Wisdom Way Solar Village Final Report: Includes Utility Bill Analysis of Occupied Homes

In 2010, Rural Development, Inc. (RDI) completed construction of Wisdom Way Solar Village (WWSV), a community of ten duplexes (20 homes) in Greenfield, MA. RDI was committed to very low energy use from the beginning of the design process throughout construction. Key features include: 1. Careful site plan so that all homes have solar access (for active and passive); 2. Cellulose insulation providing R-40 walls, R-50 ceiling, and R-40 floors; 3. Triple-pane windows; 4. Airtight construction (~0.1 CFM 50 /ft 2 enclosure area); 5. Solar water heating systems with tankless, gas, auxiliary heaters; 6. PV systems (2.8 or 3.4kW STC ); 7. 2-4 bedrooms, 1,100-1,700 ft 2 . The design heating loads in the homes were so small that each home is heated with a single, sealed-combustion, natural gas room heater. The cost savings from the simple HVAC systems made possible the tremendous investments in the homes' envelopes. The Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) monitored temperatures and comfort in several homes during the winter of 2009-2010. In the Spring of 2011, CARB obtained utility bill information from 13 occupied homes. Because of efficient lights, appliances, and conscientious home occupants, the energy generated by the solar electric systems exceeded the electric energy used in most homes. Most homes, in fact, had a net credit from the electric utility over the course of a year. On the natural gas side, total gas costs averaged $|$$377 per year (for heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying). Total energy costs were even less - $\$$337 per year, including all utility fees. The highest annual energy bill for any home evaluated was $\$$458; the lowest was $\$$171.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

meteorological parameters↗