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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiochronometric discordance in cast uranium metal: a multi-laboratory intercomparison exercise

Here, the model age of a nuclear material is crucial in nuclear forensic analysis. Uranium metals with complex production histories often exhibit discordant model ages from the 230 Th– 234 U and 231 Pa– 235 U chronometers. Recent studies involving targeted uranium metal castings have enhanced our understanding of decay product behavior during casting, aiding nuclear forensic interpretation. Building on this prior work, forensics laboratories at Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) conducted an interlaboratory comparison to investigate spatial heterogeneity in uranium metal cast under controlled conditions. Each laboratory measured samples of a mixed feedstock and its corresponding cast product. This work furthers our understanding of discordant model ages and the use of discordance as a signature to enhance confidence in interpretations of radiochronometric data for nuclear forensics.

230Th/234U↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasound and X-ray Cross-Characterization of a Graded Impedance Impactor used for Shock-Ramp Compression Experiments

Abstract In this work we perform ultrasound measurements on an impedance graded impactor made by tape casting magnesium, copper, and tungsten. We also destructively extract small representative samples from the part for complementary characterization with x-ray computed tomography. Combining the two data sets enables direct assignment of some of the measured ultrasound features to specific material characteristics identified by x-ray tomography. Our results demonstrate how ultrasound inspection, informed by x-ray computed tomography, can be used to identify sub-millimeter material amalgamations and spatial heterogeneities in this graded material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct observations and characterization of crack closure during microstructurally small fatigue crack growth via in-situ high-energy X-ray characterization

This study provides direct observation of the crack closure mechanism of a naturally occurring, tortuous, 3D microstructurally small fatigue crack (SFC) in additively manufactured Inconel 718. In-situ non-destructive characterization is performed using high-energy X-ray diffraction techniques to capture the evolution of the 3D microstructure and micromechanical response in the vicinity of the crack front. Based on the stress state of twelve grains analyzed at the crack tip, the crack closure events of the SFC front was found to be spatially heterogeneous with respect to loading progression governed by the local stress state of the grains (specifically the stress reversal from compression to tension). From this analysis, three grains that displayed different degrees of crack closure were further investigated, based on the orientation of the crack relative to the grains and the associated modality of crack growth. The stress normal to the crack plane and the associated degree of Mode I crack behavior were correlated with events of the crack opening earlier during the loading cycle. This was further corroborated by diffraction spot spreading analysis that quantified the crystallographic lattice distortion caused by the opening crack. Additionally, the detailed characterization of the opening behavior of the grains located at the crack tip and their associated states of stress elucidates the mechanism governing crack closure and will inform future modeling efforts of this phenomenon.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Site-specific field management adaptation is key to feeding the world in the 21st century

Rapid climate change and growing population threaten global food security across the globe. Several studies have proposed early planting, increased irrigation, and increased fertilizer applications as climate adaptation strategies, yet none have considered combined and site-specific field management strategies as a comprehensive solution. Here, we analyzed non-irrigated wheat yield responses to climate change and field management adaptation using a mechanistic crop model evaluated against observed global non-irrigated wheat-yield over 3-year intervals spanning 13 years at 3749 sites (RMSE = 36 gC m -2 ). Early planting with later-maturing varieties provided the most benefit to future yields among the proposed field management adaptation strategies. Improved water use efficiency from increased CO 2 led to relatively low benefits of additional irrigation. Here we estimated that spatially heterogeneous adaption strategies had the potential to improve global wheat yields by 91% by 2100 compared to the present day. The yield improvements from combined field adaptation strategies were larger than the sum of improvements from the individual strategies. These synergistic benefits were shown to result from complementary processes regulating nutrient and water uptake, physiological tolerance to heat stress, and internal carbon and nutrient cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dust-planetary boundary layer interactions amplified by entrainment and advections

Mineral dust contributes to more than half of the global aerosol loading. However, the radiative impacts of dust aerosols on planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure have not been explored sufficiently. During a typical dust storm event over Tarim Basin, dust aerosols exhibit a well-mixed distribution during the daytime in spite of a shallow layer of dust particles accumulated at higher altitudes. By contrast, nocturnal dust plumes are located near the surface due to stable stratification. We demonstrate that these differentiated vertical distributions determine the spatial heterogeneity of dust loading, radiative fluxes and PBL height variations. Dust aerosols cause daytime PBL suppression and nighttime PBL promotion through modulating surface and atmospheric radiative budgets. Specifically, dust-induced cooling effect within PBL directly inhibits the daytime PBL development. PBL suppression effect is then amplified by entrainment processes resulting in excessively low PBL height, especially for dust particles below but near the PBL top. Dust plumes weaken updrafts from PBL and downdrafts of the free atmosphere, which further reduce the entrainment mixing through attenuating horizontal and vertical advection, and eventually amplify PBL suppression. At night, near-surface dust aerosols stimulate a warm and unstable lower atmosphere, generate warm advection heating and promote the PBL development. Our study highlights the importance of specifying entrainment parameters and nighttime advection activities in quantifying the dust-PBL interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal 4D Whole-cell Modeling of a Minimal Autotroph Reveals Central Carbon Metabolism Regulated Locally by Protein Megacomplexes via Post-translational Modifications under Light Disturbance

Photosynthetic microorganisms rely on multiple pathways in central carbon metabolism to adapt to fluctuating light and energy availability across diel cycles. Mechanistic insight into the regulatory dynamics of this adaptation requires integrating processes spanning disparate timescales, from rapid redox-dependent post-translational modifications (PTMs) to slower changes in protein expression and metabolic pathway usage. To address this complexity beyond genome-based inference and traditional modeling, we develop a whole-cell four-dimensional (3D + time) model of the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus marinus MED4 that explicitly represents the spatial organization of enzymatic and molecular processes in central carbon metabolism under light perturbation. We employ a perturbation-based research design to experimentally generate time-series, multi-omics measurements that provide molecular descriptors and cryo-ET derived 3D segmented volumes as constraints for this dynamic 4D framework. The integration of experiments and modeling across defined light regimes enables quantitative validation of system-level responses and forecasting under distinct light disturbances. We test the hypothesis that light-dependent redox PTMs regulating the structural assembly of a protein megacomplex, the “dark complex,” modulate metabolic flux at a conserved regulatory node of the Calvin–Benson cycle (CBC) in cyanobacteria. Our model shows that subcellular spatial organization buffers rapid light-induced changes in thylakoid reaction rates, which are followed by redox-PTM-mediated sequestration or release of CBC enzymes in the dark complex, ultimately impacting carbon fixation dynamics within carboxysomes. Comparison with an equivalently parameterized well-mixed stochastic model demonstrates that post-translational regulation not only buffers transcriptional noise and diffusion-driven fluctuations but also stabilizes phenotypic outcomes, underscoring the importance of spatial heterogeneity in phenotypic robustness. This ability to probe adaptive, spatiotemporally resolved mechanisms in photosynthetic machinery and central carbon metabolism addresses a critical gap in genotype-to-phenotype inference and expands modeling and design capabilities for understudied or genetically intractable autotrophs such as P. marinus MED4.

Johnson, Connah G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plutonium mobilization from contaminated estuarine sediments, Esk Estuary (UK)

Since 1952, liquid radioactive effluent containing 238-242 Pu, 241 Am, 237 Np, 137 Cs, and 99 Tc has been released with authorization from the Sellafield nuclear complex (UK) into the Irish Sea. This represents the largest source of plutonium (Pu) discharged in all western Europe, with 276 kg having been released. In the Eastern Irish Sea, the majority of the transuranic activity has settled into an area of sediments (Mudpatch) located off the Cumbrian coast. Radionuclides from the Mudpatch have been re-dispersed via particulate transport in fine-grained estuarine and intertidal sediments to the North-East Irish Sea, including the intertidal saltmarsh located at the mouth of the Esk Estuary. Saltmarshes are highly dynamic systems which are vulnerable to external agents (sea level change, erosion, sediment supply, and freshwater inputs), and their stability remains uncertain under current sea level rise projections and possible increases in storm activity. In this work, we examined factors affecting Pu mobility in contaminated sediments collected from the Esk Estuary by conducting leaching experiments under both anoxic and oxic conditions. Here, leaching experiments were conducted over a 9-month period and were periodically sampled to determine solution phase Pu via multicollector-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS), and to measure redox indicators (Eh, pH and extractable Fe(II)). Microbial community composition was also characterized in the sediments, and at the beginning and end of the anoxic/oxic experiments. Results show that: 1) Pu leaching is about three times greater in solutions leached under anoxic conditions compared to oxic conditions, 2) the sediment slurry microbial communities shift as conditions change from anoxic to oxic, 3) Pu leaching is enhanced in the shallow sediments (0–10 cm depth), and 4) the magnitude of Pu leached from sediments is not correlated with total Pu, indicating that the biogeochemistry of sediment-associated Pu is spatially heterogeneous. These findings provide constraints on the stability of redox sensitive Pu in biogeochemically dynamic/transient environments on a timescale of months and suggests that anoxic conditions can enhance Pu mobility in estuarine systems.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machining-inducted residual strain and ductile-brittle transition in sapphire revealed by X-ray nanoprobe diffraction microscopy

Hard X-ray nanoprobe diffraction microscopy is employed to investigate machining-induced residual lattice strain in single-crystal sapphire following ultra-precision orthogonal plunge cutting. In this study, tilt-series and single-angle acquisition strategies are systematically compared to evaluate their capability for resolving lattice variations associated with the machining process. An analytical framework is developed to enable the efficient and reliable extraction of strains, which serve as strain-based indicators of changes in the dominant deformation mechanism. The measured high-dimensional strain exhibits spatial heterogeneity and systematic evolution along the cutting path, consistent with deformation-regime changes from ductile response to crack-prone behavior.

Liang, Rui↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design optimization of lightweight automotive seatback through additive manufacturing compression overmolding of metal polymer composites

With the growing demand for enhanced automotive fuel efficiency and environmental sustainability, there is a need for lightweighting automotive components through innovative design and manufacturing processes. Here, this study leverages a combination of numerical iterative design optimization and hybrid additive manufacturing–compression molding (AM-CM) technique for metal polymer composites to lightweight an automotive seatback. The AM-CM process enables robust mechanical interlocking between metals and composites, boasting high stiffness and strength with low overall density. Replacing metallic components with such metal polymer composites allows for comparable mechanical performance while significantly reducing the overall weight. First, the automotive seatback design space is reduced to critical load carrying regions using topology optimization and high stress concentration areas are identified using finite element analysis. Next, a lightweight metal polymer subcomponent is designed for a high stress concentration region. The full seatback frame with spatially heterogeneous material-specific design is then iteratively optimized to enable enhanced stiffness with minimal weight. Overall, the automotive seatback frame designed with location-specific metal, polymer, and metal polymer composite materials weighs 20% less than the metal-only design while exhibiting similar stiffness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Monitoring agroecosystem productivity and phenology at a national scale: A metric assessment framework

Effective measurement of seasonal variations in the timing and amount of production is critical to managing spatially heterogeneous agroecosystems in a changing climate. Although numerous technologies for such measurements are available, their relationships to one another at a continental extent are unknown. Using data collected from across the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network and other networks, we investigated correlations among key metrics representing primary production, phenology, and carbon fluxes in croplands, grazing lands, and crop-grazing integrated systems across the continental U.S. Metrics we examined included gross primary productivity (GPP) estimated from eddy covariance (EC) towers and modelled from the Landsat satellite, Landsat NDVI, and vegetation greenness (Green Chromatic Coordinate, GCC) from tower-mounted PhenoCams for 2017 and 2018. Overall, our analysis compared production dynamics estimated from three independent ground and remote platforms using data for 34 agricultural sites constituting 51 site-years of co-located time series. Pairwise sensor comparisons across all four metrics revealed stronger correlation and lower root mean square error (RMSE) between end of season (EOS) dates (Pearson R ranged from 0.6 to 0.7 and RMSE from 32.5 to 67.8) than start of season (SOS) dates (0.46 to 0.69 and 40.4 to 66.2). Overall, moderate to high correlations between SOS and EOS metrics complemented one another except at some lower productivity grazing land sites where estimating SOS can be challenging. Growing season length estimates derived from 16-day satellite GPP (179.1 days) were significantly longer than those from PhenoCam G CC (70.4 days, p adj < 0.0001) and EC GPP (79.6 days, p adj < 0.0001). Landscape heterogeneity did not explain differences in SOS and EOS estimates. Annual integrated estimates of productivity from EC GPP and PhenoCam G CC diverged from those estimated by Landsat GPP and NDVI at sites where annual production exceeds 1000 gC/m –2 yr –1 . Based on our results, we developed a “metric assessment framework” that articulates where and how metrics from satellite, eddy covariance and PhenoCams complement, diverge from, or are redundant with one another. The framework was designed to optimize instrumentation selection for monitoring, modeling, and forecasting ecosystem functioning with the ultimate goal of informing decision-making by land managers, policy-makers, and industry leaders working at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dimensionality effects on multicomponent ionic transport and surface complexation in porous media

Coulombic interactions between charged species in pore water and at surface/solution interfaces are of pivotal importance for multicomponent reactive transport in porous media. In this study, we investigate the impact of domain dimensionality on electrostatically coupled dispersion and surface-solution reactions during transport of acidic plumes and major ions in porous media. Column and quasi two-dimensional flow-through experiments were performed, with identical silica porous media and under the same advection-dominated conditions. Equal mass fluxes of different electrolyte solutions (i.e., HCl - pH ~ 2.8, NaBr - 100 mM, HCl - pH ~ 2.8 plus NaBr - 100 mM) were continuously injected in the 1-D and 2-D experiments and breakthrough curves of pH and major ions were measured at the outlet of the domains. The presence of pronounced ionic strength gradients in the transverse direction in the 2-D setup caused distinct retardation and transport behaviors of protons and major ions which were not observed in the one-dimensional column experiments. Furthermore, in the cases of salt electrolytes injection, considerably enhanced release of H + (>61%) from the quartz surface was observed in the multidimensional system compared to the one-dimensional setup. Reactive transport modeling was performed to reproduce the experimental outcomes and to analyse the coupling between transport processes, based on the Nernst-Planck formulation of diffusive/dispersive fluxes and on surface complexation reactions at the solid-solution interface. Electrostatic interactions between Na + , B – , and H + , and deprotonation of the quartz surface upon the formation of sodium outer-sphere complexes, are the primary controllers of the spatial and temporal features displayed by the pH and major ions measurements. The reactive transport simulations allowed us to interpret the experimental observations, to visualize the distribution and spatio-temporal evolution of dissolved and solid species, to identify a spatially heterogeneous zonation of Coulombic interactions with distinct behavior at the fringe and core of the injected plumes in the multidimensional setup, and to quantify the different components of the Nerst-Planck fluxes of the charged solutes. This study demonstrates that the domain dimensionality directly affects electrostatic interactions between charged aqueous species in the pore water and surface complexation reactions at the solid-solution interface. The non-trivial effects of dimensionality on multicomponent ionic transport result in a significantly different behavior in 1-D and 2-D systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advective gas flow in bentonite: Development and comparison of enhanced multi-phase numerical approaches

Understanding the impact of repository gas, generated from degradation of waste and its interaction with the host rock, is essential when assessing the performance and safety function of long-term disposal systems for radioactive waste. Numerical models based on conventional multi-phase flow theory have historically been applied to predict the outcome and impact of gas flow on different repository components. However, they remain unable to describe the full complexity of the physical processes observed in water-saturated experiments (e.g., creation of dilatant pathways) and thus, the development of novel representations for their description is required when assessing fully saturated clay-based systems. This was the primary focus of Task A within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2019 (D-2019) and refinement of these approaches is the primary focus of this study (Task B in the current phase of DECOVALEX-2023). This paper summarises development of enhanced numerical representations of key processes and compares the performance of each model against high-quality laboratory test data. Experimental data reveals that gas percolation in water-saturated compacted bentonite is characterised by four key features: (i) a quiescence phase, followed by (ii) the gas breakthrough, which leads to a (iii) peak value, which is then followed by (iv) a negative decay. Three models based on the multiphase flow theory have been developed. These models can provide good initial values and reasonable responses for gas breakthrough (although some of them still predict a too-smooth response). Peak gas pressure values are in general reasonably well captured, although maximum radial stress differences are observed at 48 mm from the base of the sample. Here, numerical peak values of 12.8 MPa are predicted, whereas experimental values are about 11 MPa. These models are also capable of providing a reasonable representation of the negative pressure decay following peak pressure. However, other key specific features (such as the timing of gas breakthrough) still require a better representation. The model simulations and their comparison with experimental data show that these models need to be further improved with respect to model parameter calibration, the numerical representation of spatial heterogeneities in material properties and flow localisation, and the upscaling of the related physical processes and parameters. To further understand gas flow localisation, a new conceptual model has been developed, which shows that discrete channels can possibly be induced through the instability of gas-bentonite interface during gas injection, thus providing a new perspective for modeling gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computer simulation of reaction and transport of core-scale serpentinization of Fe-bearing olivine and evolution of geological hydrogen

We present reactive flow and transport simulations of core-scale serpentinization of forsteritic, Fe-bearing olivine under hydrothermal conditions. The model captures fluid flow, evolving porosity–permeability, and redox-controlled H 2 production in a cylindrical core over 55 days at 245 °C and 37 bar. Key processes include olivine dissolution, precipitation of serpentine and magnetite, and oxidation of Fe2+ to Fe 3+ . Here, results show strong coupling among flow velocity, alteration front propagation, and spatially heterogeneous H 2 generation. Elevated H2 concentrations align with inlet-localized magnetite precipitation, consistent with experiments. Secondary mineral formation reduces porosity and permeability, altering transport pathways. Reactive flow at the fluid–solid interface governs H 2 generation rates and distribution. Dissolved SiO2 promotes serpentine and talc formation by suppressing brucite, while bicarbonate extends reaction duration and moderates surface complexation effects.

Geologic hydrogen↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detection and attribution of long-term and fine-scale changes in spring phenology over urban areas: A case study in New York State

Spring phenology plays an essential role in climate change, terrestrial ecosystem, and public health. Field-based monitoring and understanding of changes in spring phenology for long periods and in large regions are challenging due to the limited in-site observations. Space-based remotely sensed observations offer great potentials for monitoring decadal spring phenology changes from regional to global scales. However, the coarse-scale remotely sensed observations are insufficient to capture fine-scale spring phenology dynamics, especially in urban areas, and this makes it challenging for understanding the combined effects of climate change and urbanization on spring phenology. We derived the start of phenology season (SOS) in New York State using 30 m Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015 to understand the impact of the environment and urbanization on SOS. The results show that SOS for different years reveals heterogeneous spatial distribution. Most regions of New York State have been experiencing significant spring phenology changes in form of earlier onset of vegetation greening, ranging from 0.2 to 0.6 day/year during 1990 to 2015, and this trend varies slightly with latitudes and urbanization levels. Further, spatial correlation analysis shows that the increase in temperature and urbanization could both promote the advancement of SOS. However, the effect of urbanization (partial correlation coefficient (R) ranges from −0.289 to −0.542) on SOS is greater than the effect of temperature (R ranges from 0.006 to −0.192). The study generates a high spatio-temporal resolution spring phenology dataset for ecological, environmental and public health studies, especially in urban areas, and reveals the importance of better accounting for the urbanization effects when quantifying the SOS dynamics in phenology models.

Landsat↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying recharge processes into a vast “fossil” aquifer based on dynamic groundwater 81 Kr age evolution

Water in deep aquifers in arid regions is often considered to be "fossil" when modern recharge rates are negligible relative to the reservoir capacity. Over the past five decades, the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA) in the arid region of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev Desert (Israel) has been considered to contain fossil water based on 14 C dating, which revealed 14 C ages of about 30 kyr over most of the aquifer. However, this relatively homogeneous age distribution contradicts the expected increase in groundwater age in the direction of decreasing piezometric head along the flow trajectories. Here, dating results with the longer-lived 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 ± 11 kyr) are presented, highlighting a wide age range of 40 kyr to 630 kyr in the confined sections of the aquifer, all with very low 14 C activity (<1 pmC). Elevated 81Kr and 14 C activities were only observed within or close to the system's recharge areas. These findings support a new perception of groundwater replenishment during different epochs from the early mid- Pleistocene to the Holocene. By tracking the downstream age evolution, rejuvenation was identified in places where the confinement had been breached. At other locations, the existence of an older groundwater body contributing to the aquifer was detected by means of strongly depleted 81 Kr activity. High spatial heterogeneity in groundwater ages close to the discharge zone of the system is attributed to pronounced age stratification with depth. Calculated ages in the more isolated sections of the system were used to assess regional flow velocity, hydraulic conductivity, and their agreement with present recharge rates. We conclude that regional aquifers in which low 14 C activity suggests homogeneous ancient groundwater age should be reevaluated with 81Kr. With an effective age range beyond one million years, this may enable the restoration of recharge history and provide crucial information for the management of groundwater resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the long-term changes of terrestrial water storage and their driving factors

Global warming is expected to cause changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) across the land surface, with widespread impacts on ecosystems and society. Although extensive research has been performed to analyze TWS changes and possible drivers during the post-2000 period, longer-term evolution of TWS and associated environmental forcings remain relatively unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System model (E3SM) land model ELM version 1 (ELM v1) in simulating global TWS, and used factorial simulations of ELMv1 to quantify global TWS changes and their drivers during 1948–2012. We found that ELM’s agreed best with existing satellites and reconstruction datasets in temperate regions unaffected by irrigation. Biome- and climate zone-averaged TWS mainly increased at rates between 0 and 10 mm/year over 1948–2012, but the second half of that period saw smaller positive trends than the first half or even negative trends. Climate change explained >80 % of the TWS trends across most biomes and climate zones, followed by land use and land cover change. The physiological and phenological effects of CO2 primarily induced noticeable TWS trends in the more humid biomes and climate zones across different latitudes. In contrast, nitrogen deposition and aerosol deposition generally had smaller and negative impacts across the biomes and climate regions. Among the meteorological drivers analyzed, the long-term average imbalance between precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and runoff (Q) contributed >50 % of the TWS trends in most biomes and climate zones, with nonlinearity being induced by spatially heterogenous changes in E/P and Q/P ratios. The accumulated detrended anomalies in P, E, and Q also often contributed substantially, while the trends difference between P, E, and Q contributed little. Together, these findings unveiled an intensification of the global TWS and its diverse patterns of climate change and different non-withdrawal human-induced alterations, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and projection of the global water cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗