Computational Statistical Inverse Problems with Sparse or Missing Data.
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RR Lyrae stars may be the best practical tracers of Galactic halo (sub-)structure and kinematics. The PanSTARRS1 (PS1) 3π survey offers multi-band, multi-epoch, precise photometry across much of the sky, but a robust identification of RR Lyrae stars in this data set poses a challenge, given PS1's sparse, asynchronous multi-band light curves (≲12 epochs in each of five bands, taken over a 4.5 year period). We present a novel template fitting technique that uses well-defined and physically motivated multi-band light curves of RR Lyrae stars, and demonstrate that we get accurate period estimates, precise to 2 s in >80% of cases. We augment these light-curve fits with other features from photometric time-series and provide them to progressively more detailed machine-learned classification models. From these models, we are able to select the widest (three-fourths of the sky) and deepest (reaching 120 kpc) sample of RR Lyrae stars to date. The PS1 sample of ∼45,000 RRab stars is pure (90%) and complete (80% at 80 kpc) at high galactic latitudes. It also provides distances that are precise to 3%, measured with newly derived period–luminosity relations for optical/near-infrared PS1 bands. With the addition of proper motions from Gaia and radial velocity measurements from multi-object spectroscopic surveys, we expect the PS1 sample of RR Lyrae stars to become the premier source for studying the structure, kinematics, and the gravitational potential of the Galactic halo. The techniques presented in this study should translate well to other sparse, multi-band data sets, such as those produced by the Dark Energy Survey and the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Galactic plane sub-survey.
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Small metal clusters are of fundamental scientific interest and of tremendous significance in catalysis. These nanoscale clusters display diverse geometries and structural motifs depending on the cluster size; a knowledge of this size-dependent structural motifs and their dynamical evolution has been of longstanding interest. Given the high computational cost of first-principles calculations, molecular modeling and atomistic simulations such as molecular dynamics (MD) has proven to be an important complementary tool to aid this understanding. Classical MD typically employ predefined functional forms which limits their ability to capture such complex size-dependent structural and dynamical transformation. Neural Network (NN) based potentials represent flexible alternatives and in principle, well-trained NN potentials can provide high level of flexibility, transferability and accuracy on-par with the reference model used for training. A major challenge, however, is that NN models are interpolative and requires large quantities (similar to 10 4 or greater) of training data to ensure that the model adequately samples the energy landscape both near and far-from-equilibrium. A highly desirable goal is minimize the number of training data, especially if the underlying reference model is first-principles based and hence expensive. In this work, we introduce an active learning (AL) scheme that trains a NN model on-the-fly with minimal amount of first-principles based training data. Our AL workflow is initiated with a sparse training dataset (similar to 1 to 5 data points) and is updated on-the-fly via a Nested Ensemble Monte Carlo scheme that iteratively queries the energy landscape in regions of failure and updates the training pool to improve the network performance. Using a representative system of gold clusters, we demonstrate that our AL workflow can train a NN with similar to 500 total reference calculations. Using an extensive DFT test set of similar to 1100 configurations, we show that our AL-NN is able to accurately predict both the DFT energies and the forces for clusters of a myriad of different sizes. Our NN predictions are within 30 meV/atom and 40 meV/angstrom of the reference DFT calculations. Moreover, our AL-NN model also adequately captures the various size-dependent structural and dynamical properties of gold clusters in excellent agreement with DFT calculations and available experiments. We finally show that our AL-NN model also captures bulk properties reasonably well, even though they were not included in the training data.
In recent years, the success of serial femtosecond crystallography and the paucity of beamtime at X-ray free-electron lasers have motivated the development of serial microcrystallography experiments at storage-ring synchrotron sources. However, especially at storage-ring sources, if a crystal is too small it will have suffered significant radiation damage before diffracting a sufficient number of X-rays into Bragg peaks for peak-indexing software to determine the crystal orientation. As a consequence, the data frames of small crystals often cannot be indexed and are discarded. Introduced here is a method based on the expand–maximize–compress (EMC) algorithm to solve protein structures, specifically from data frames for which indexing methods fail because too few X-rays are diffracted into Bragg peaks. The method is demonstrated on a real serial microcrystallography data set whose signals are too weak to be indexed by conventional methods. In spite of the daunting background scatter from the sample-delivery medium, it was still possible to solve the protein structure at 2.1 Å resolution. The ability of the EMC algorithm to analyze weak data frames will help to reduce sample consumption. Furthermore, it will also allow serial microcrystallography to be performed with crystals that are otherwise too small to be feasibly analyzed at storage-ring sources.
One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.
The data structures used to represent the multi-material state of a computational physics application can have a significant impact on its performance. Here, we look at efficient data structures for applications where there may be many materials overall, but where most computational cells contain only one or a few of these materials. We develop simple performance models for selecting possible data structures and programming patterns. We verify the analytic performance models with a small test program of the representative cases. We discuss the impact of these techniques and analysis for multi-material physics applications, which are also applicable to a wide range of sparse computational data structures.
Abstract Neutron computed tomography (NCT), a 3D non-destructive characterization technique, is carried out at nuclear reactor or spallation neutron source-based user facilities. Because neutrons are not severely attenuated by heavy elements and are sensitive to light elements like hydrogen, neutron radiography and computed tomography offer a complementary contrast to x-ray CT conducted at a synchrotron user facility. However, compared to synchrotron x-ray CT, the acquisition time for an NCT scan can be orders of magnitude higher due to lower source flux, low detector efficiency and the need to collect a large number of projection images for a high-quality reconstruction when using conventional algorithms. As a result of the long scan times for NCT, the number and type of experiments that can be conducted at a user facility is severely restricted. Recently, several deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) based algorithms have been introduced in the context of accelerating CT scans that can enable high quality reconstructions from sparse-view data. In this paper, we introduce DCNN algorithms to obtain high-quality reconstructions from sparse-view and low signal-to-noise ratio NCT data-sets thereby enabling accelerated scans. Our method is based on the supervised learning strategy of training a DCNN to map a low-quality reconstruction from sparse-view data to a higher quality reconstruction. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of two popular DCNN architectures—one based on using patches for training and the other on using the full images for training. We observe that both the DCNN architectures offer improvements in performance over classical multi-layer perceptron as well as conventional CT reconstruction algorithms. Our results illustrate that the DCNN can be a powerful tool to obtain high-quality NCT reconstructions from sparse-view data thereby enabling accelerated NCT scans for increasing user-facility throughput or enabling high-resolution time-resolved NCT scans.
This report demonstrates versatile and practical model validation and uncertainty quantification techniques applied to the accuracy assessment of a computational model of heated steel pipes pressurized to failure. The Real Space validation methodology segregates aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to form straightforward model validation metrics especially suited for assessing models to be used in the analysis of performance and safety margins. The methodology handles difficulties associated with representing and propagating interval and/or probabilistic uncertainties from multiple correlated and uncorrelated sources in the experiments and simulations including: material variability characterized by non-parametric random functions (discrete temperature dependent stress-strain curves); very limited (sparse) experimental data at the coupon testing level for material characterization and at the pipe-test validation level; boundary condition reconstruction uncertainties from spatially sparse sensor data; normalization of pipe experimental responses for measured input-condition differences among tests and for random and systematic uncertainties in measurement/processing/inference of experimental inputs and outputs; numerical solution uncertainty from model discretization and solver effects.
Pulse is a downsampling algorithm for timeseries data. Frequently datasets become so large that visualization tools and web browsers cannot effectively render graphics due to memory constraints. Downsampling algorithms are commonly applied to minimize the quantity of data required to visualize important features or trends in the data, but some datasets are composed by distinct enough features and trends that most existing downsampling algorithms fail to preserve them. Pule was developed to downsample timeseries data for galvanostatic stack test data at the Idaho National Laboratory. These datasets were composed by approximately 4 million records, most of them being extremely uniform. However, during relatively brief time periods when the stack test changes state, for example when the test article is powered on, or a load is added, the data produce sparse asymptotes. No existing downsampling algorithm was capable of preserving the sparse asymptotes in electrolysis stack test data. Instead, we develop a downsampling algorithm that preserves important outliers in data, and otherwise aggressively downsamples uniform data. The algorithm has applications in other domains like seismology, in the measurement of earthquakes, or astronomy, in the measurement of quasars or transit photometry.
Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.
The lack of accurate submodels for in-cylinder heat transfer has been identified as a key shortcoming in developing truly predictive, physics-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that can be used to develop combustion systems for advanced high-efficiency, low-emissions engines. Only recently have experimental methods become available that enable accurate near-wall measurements to enhance simulation capability via advancing models. Initial results show crank-angle dependent discrepancies with respect to previously used boundary-layer models of up to 100%. However, available experimental data is quite sparse (only few data points on engine walls) and limited (available measurements are those of heat flux only). Predictive submodels are needed for medium-resolution ("engineering") LES and for unsteady Reynolds-averaged simulations (URANS). Recently, some research groups have performed DNS studies on engine-relevant conditions using simple geometries. These provide very useful data for benchmarking wall heat transfer models under such conditions. Further, a number of new and more sophisticated models have also become available in the literature which account for these engine-like conditions. Some of these have been incorporated while others of a more complex nature, which include solving additional partial differential equations (PDEs) within the thin boundary layer near the wall, are underway. These models will then be tested against the available DNS/experimental data in both SI (spark-ignition) and CI (compression-ignition) engines.
Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.
For multilayer materials in thin substrate systems, interfacial failure is one of the most challenges. The traction-separation relations (TSR) quantitatively describe the mechanical behavior of a material interface undergoing openings, which is critical to understand and predict interfacial failures under complex loadings. However, existing theoretical models have limitations on enough complexity and flexibility to well learn the real-world TSR from experimental observations. A neural network can fit well along with the loading paths but often fails to obey the laws of physics, due to a lack of experimental data and understanding of the hidden physical mechanism. In this paper, we propose a thermodynamic consistent neural network (TCNN) approach to build a data-driven model of the TSR with sparse experimental data. The TCNN leverages recent advances in physics-informed neural networks (PINN) that encode prior physical information into the loss function and efficiently train the neural networks using automatic differentiation. We investigate three thermodynamic consistent principles, i.e., positive energy dissipation, steepest energy dissipation gradient, and energy conservative loading path. All of them are mathematically formulated and embedded into a neural network model with a novel defined loss function. A real-world experiment demonstrates the superior performance of TCNN, and we find that TCNN provides an accurate prediction of the whole TSR surface and significantly reduces the violated prediction against the laws of physics.
Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.