Sub-City-Scale Air Quality Forecasts Combining Models, Satellites, and Surface Measures
Poor air quality is a global major concern, especially in cities with their higher emissions and large numbers of exposed people. Air quality monitoring has traditionally relied on ground-based measurements from a few accurate but expensive regulatory-grade monitors, leading to limited spatial data coverage. More recently, these have been supplemented with other data sources, including satellite observations of pollutants, atmospheric chemistry model simulations, and low-cost monitors allowing for denser spatial data collection at the expense of lower accuracy compared to regulatory-grade monitors. Each of these air quality data sources have their own benefits and drawbacks, and so there is an opportunity to combine these data together while respecting their relative strengths and weaknesses in order to generate a more comprehensive and detailed picture of local air quality. I will present our current work towards such a combination, with a focus on producing higher spatial resolution estimates and near-term forecasts of Nitrogen Dioxide in urban areas in the United States. Our method combines data from the GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model system, TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 satellite data products, and ground measurements from the EPA regulatory monitoring network using a combination of simple intuitive relationships and machine learning techniques. I will show the performance of this proposed method in several urban areas in the United States, comparing it with baseline approaches using single data sources separately. Overall, we find that combining these disparate datasets together leads to more accurate air quality forecasts in the target areas than is possible using each data source separately.