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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Observations and Lessons Learned From Installing Residential Roofing-Integrated Photovoltaics

Building-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) could play a key role in decarbonizing the building sector either through racked and mounted PV or through Building-integrated PV (BIPV). BIPV is installed into the building envelope itself, with solar cells and/or modules forming the outer layer of a building structure, thus transforming a single-purpose structure into one that serves the dual purposes of the building envelope and electricity. BIPV can be applied to building roofs, facades, awnings, pergolas, windows, skylights, balustrades, and other external surfaces. Given BIPV products vary widely, the focus of this research is residential roofing integrated PV (RIPV), where solar is incorporated into or otherwise replaces the roofing material. Previous research suggests that residential RIPV could reduce customer acquisition, labor, supply chain, and equipment costs. These products have yet to realize these cost savings and deployment remains significantly less than conventional rooftop PV as a relative share of the addressable market in the US. One potential barrier to broader residential roofing integrated PV deployment may be higher costs relative to conventional rooftop PV, primarily because the design and installation of these products is still evolving. Here, we explore residential RIPV cost-reduction opportunities by analyzing installation processes. Our study documents residential RIPV installations at 2 reroofing sites and the equivalent of 9 new construction sites in California through a methodology known as time and motion study. We also conducted interviews with subject-matter experts to identify barriers and solutions to maximize these products' market penetration. Our time and motion study breaks the RIPV installation process into four steps: 1) staging, unloading, and roof preparation; 2) fire resistant underlayment(s) (synthetic material laid between roof shingles and roof deck); 3) flashings and PV installation; and 4) wiring and monitoring. We measure the time required for each step in terms of worker-hours, representing an hour of labor from a single worker. We further normalize process time by dividing worker-hours by kilowatt (kW) of system capacity. The most time-intensive step was flashings and PV installation, taking around 2.4 worker-hours per kW on average and accounting for around 60% of the process time for an average installation. The total installation process took on average about 6.4 and 3.5 worker-hours per kW at the reroofing sites and new construction sites, respectively. For comparison, a previous time and motion study documented a time of 6.9 worker-hours per kW for conventional rooftop PV. The shorter RIPV installation times are consistent with previous studies suggesting that RIPV could be installed faster than conventional rooftop PV. The time and motion results and feedback from interviewees provide insights into potential residential RIPV cost reduction opportunities. Several interviewees suggested that these products would be more efficient if PV installation was more fully integrated into the roofing/construction industries, which currently use separate supply chains and skillsets. Further integration could reduce supply chain delays and labor force redundancies. Future research could explore specific ways to integrate these industries to help realize the cost savings potential of RIPV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Life Cycle Assessment of Pasture-based Agrivoltaic Systems: Emissions and Energy Use of Integrated Rabbit Production

Agrivoltaic systems, which deliberately maximize the utility of a single parcel of land for both solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity production and agriculture, have been demonstrated as a viable technology that can ameliorate competing land uses and meet growing energy and food demands efficiently. The goal of this study is to assess the environmental impacts of a novel pasture-based agrivoltaic concept: co-farming rabbits and solar PV. A life cycle assessment (LCA) quantified the impacts of 1) the integrated agrivoltaic concept in comparison to conventional practices including 2) separate rabbit farming and PV production and 3) separate rabbit farming and conventional electricity production. The impact assessment methods employed to determine the environmental impacts were IPCC 2013 global warming potential 100a V1.03 and fossil energy demand V1.11. The results indicate that the pasture-based agrivoltaic system produces the least amount of greenhouse gas emissions (3.8 million kg CO₂ equivalent) and demands the least amount of fossil energy (46 million MJ) per functional unit of cumulative MWh output of electricity and cumulative kg of meat over 30 years in comparison to the two other scenarios under study. The pasture-based agrivoltaic system features a dual synergy that consequently produces 69.3% less emissions and demands 82.9% less fossil energy compared to non-integrated production. The potential for agrivoltaic systems to significantly reduce environmental impacts revealed by this LCA, which was limited to emissions and fossil energy demand, demonstrates that integrated solar and pasture-based agricultural systems are superior to conventional practices in terms of their comparatively lower emission and energy intensity. These findings provide empirical support for increased agrivoltaic system development more broadly.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Power Resilience for Remote Communities: A Comprehensive Renewable Energy Solution for Itbayat Island

The island of Itbayat, Philippines, faces significant challenges in maintaining a reliable and resilient power supply due to its current reliance on a vulnerable power distribution system managed by a local electric cooperative. The existing infrastructure, which includes diesel generators and a radial network configuration with some above-ground lines, is highly susceptible to frequent typhoons and adverse weather conditions. These factors, combined with inadequate staffing and high operational costs, result in frequent power outages that disrupt daily life and hinder economic development. This white paper proposes a comprehensive solution to enhance the resilience and reliability of Itbayat's power system by integrating renewable energy sources, specifically solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, battery storage, and a microgrid controller. The proposed solution aims to reduce dependency on diesel fuel, optimize energy use, and provide a sustainable and robust power supply for the island. Key components of the solution include: 1. Solar PV Installation: Deploying solar PV panels to harness abundant solar energy, reducing reliance on diesel fuel. 2. Battery Storage Systems: Installing battery storage to store excess solar energy and ensure a continuous power supply during low solar generation periods. 3. Microgrid Controller: Implementing a microgrid controller to manage and optimize the integration of solar PV, battery storage, and existing diesel generators. The proposed solution addresses several critical issues, including system vulnerability, generator dependency, and operational inefficiencies. By adopting this innovative approach, Itbayat Island can achieve a more resilient, efficient, and sustainable energy infrastructure, ensuring a stable power supply for its residents and enhancing overall energy security.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spectral Radiative Properties of Ceramic Particles for Concentrated Solar Thermal Energy Storage Applications

This work investigates the spectral radiative properties of ceramic particles using a monochromator and a Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) with integrating spheres at wavelengths from 0.38 μm to 15 μm. Particles are encased between two transparent windows to obtain the directional-hemispherical reflectance of the particle bed. Two types of commercially available particles with three different sizes are examined. Integration over the solar spectrum reveals that the solar absorptance of the particle beds is between 0.940 and 0.957. The total emittance at 1000 K is also estimated by assuming the spectral emittance is independent of temperature. The optical constants of particles are modeled with effective medium approaches, considering the optical properties of individual constituent materials. The absorptance of the particle is estimated using the effective optical constants and compared with that of the particle bed from the measurement. Finally, this work facilitates the characterization of radiative properties of particles with a windowed method and provides a modeling scheme for approximating the radiative properties of composite ceramic materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Thermochemical Carbon Dioxide Splitting Using Ceria and Iron Aluminate Foam Devices and Simulation of a Plant System for Demonstration

An international research project has been undertaken to integrate a unique solar thermal processing reactor system with ceria and iron aluminate as active redox materials for CO2 splitting. Experimental investigations for CO2 splitting were conducted using a solar simulator and tube furnace at Niigata University, followed by demonstrations using a high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO. Each experimental setup consisted of foam devices composed of reticulated porous ceramic (RPC). The RPC has a full ceria or iron aluminate body. It fabricated using the replica method and subjected to a two-step redox reaction, which iteratively separated a stream of CO2 into O2 and CO. Reactivity was evaluated using CO production per mass of the reactive material. The tubular furnace yielded a CO production of 6.41 mL/g at a reduction temperature of 1600degrees C, showcasing a higher CO production rate and total amount than those obtained from experiments conducted with solar simulators and solar furnace setups. For iron aluminate RPC, the productivity was measured as 3.57 mL/g using HFSF at a reduction temperature of 1450degrees C. These results are somewhat higher than those of the previous experiment at lower reduction temperatures of 1400degrees C-1500degrees C. Additionally, the production of CO in the case of ceria RPC was compared with the steady flow model simulation, which assumed chemical equilibrium at various levels of oxygen partial pressure during the reduction process. On the basis of these results, this study proposes a solar fuel system with an open receiver that uses a high-temperature heat transfer fluid.

carbon dioxide thermochemical splitting↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synchronverter-based Control of Multi-Port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar Plants (MARS)

Control of integrated photovoltaic (PV) plants with energy storage systems (ESSs) has become an important research and development topic in recent times. In this context, a Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar (MARS) plant that integrates PV and ESS to alternating current transmission grid and high-voltage direct current (HVdc) link is studied in this paper. With penetration of power electronic based resources in the grid, the grid’s capability to recover from frequency or voltage disturbances are reduced. Therefore, one of the vital objectives of any new grid integrated power electronic resource is to provide advanced control functions like voltage and frequency support to the grid during disturbances. In this research work, a detailed implementation of a synchronverter-based control algorithm of MARS is presented. The proposed control algorithm and the MARS control architecture are evaluated through simulations on PSCAD/EMTDC simulation platform to showcase the performance in different operating conditions. In addition, they are evaluated in Opal-RT offline simulation models which can also be used to perform control-hardware-in-the-loop (cHIL) tests.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging concentrating solar power plant dispatchability: A review of the impacts of global market structures and policy

Concentrating solar power (CSP) integrated with thermal energy storage delivers flexible and dispatchable power, which is an increasingly valuable quality as electricity systems integrate growing penetrations of variable renewable energy. Valuing and compensating CSP's dispatchability and flexibility requires electricity market structures and policies that appropriately remunerate generation during high-value portions of the day. In this paper, we review previous analyses of CSP economics and deployment, and we find that continued CSP growth will require valuation mechanisms that appropriately compensate for CSP's flexibility during both plant design and plant operation. We then review market structures that drive CSP operations and dispatch in jurisdictions where CSP is being developed, with perspectives from Spain, Chile, Australia, Morocco, South Africa, the United States, China, and the United Arab Emirates (Dubai). Despite broad agreement that CSP's dispatchability provides value to electricity grids, countries' policies for remunerating and leveraging such dispatchability varies widely. As deployment of CSP and variable renewable energy grows, it will be increasingly important to redesign current integration policies to signal the delivery of CSP's grid services more appropriately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chapter 9: Impact of Variable Renewable Energy Sources on Bulk Power System Planning and Operations

Wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) have experienced remarkable growth in recent years, with many consequent benefits within and outside of power systems. At the same time, wind and solar PV have unique characteristics relative to the historically dominant dispatchable technologies like coal, gas, and nuclear power plants that have required and will continue to require changes in power system planning and operations. This chapter discusses planning and operational challenges of integrating wind and solar PV into bulk power systems. We first present the key characteristics of wind and solar PV that differentiate it from conventional technologies, such as variable and uncertain electricity generation, asynchronous interconnection to the power system, and near-zero marginal costs. We then link these characteristics to power system planning and operational challenges at low through high wind and solar penetrations. Finally, we discuss near- and long-term solutions to those challenges, such as diversifying the generation mix and wind and solar fleets, improving system flexibility, diversifying ancillary service products, and integrating generation and transmission planning.

bulk power system↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pumped Thermal Energy Storage Using Low-Cost Particles and a Fluid Bed Heat Exchanger for Maximum Power Efficiency

Robust, efficient, cost-effective long-duration electricity storage (LDES) solutions can enhance grid resiliency, support existing transmission and distribution infrastructure, and enable a greater share of low-cost, variable alternative energy sources to penetrate the market. To meet this need, the project team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed a transformative LDES system based on pumped thermal energy storage (TES) using low-cost particles and a fluid bed heat exchanger for maximum power efficiency (PUMP). The PUMP system is composed of high-temperature, low-cost particle TES coupled with an advanced pressurized fluid bed heat exchanger (PFB HX) that supports a high-efficiency pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) system integrated with concentrating solar thermal power (CSP). The PUMP project developed and de-risked a PFB HX and particle CSP system intended to be integrated with reversible turbomachinery and a modeling tool to assess PTES cost and performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Loop Thermosyphon Enhanced Solar Collector

A two-phase loop thermosyphon solar collector was developed to transfer thermal energy efficiently and passively from a concentrated solar collector to a thermal desalination process. The two-phase flow in the loop thermosyphon is driven by a difference in gravitational pressure head between the liquid return line and the two-phase riser located between the evaporator and condenser. A numerical model incorporating mass, energy, and pressure drop balances was developed to predict system performance and use as a design tool. Three iterations of loop thermosyphon solar collectors were designed, fabricated, and tested to validate the numerical analysis and demonstrate system integration. Additionally, a novel solar receiver design was evaluated based on volumetric absorption of the concentrated sunlight by an optically absorptive two-phase working fluid. Life tests were performed to evaluate the working fluid thermal stability and resistance to ultraviolet degradation. A glass receiver tube and associated glass-to-metal junctions were developed. Finally, a full-scale loop thermosyphon was integrated with a parabolic trough solar collector and tested on-sun.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Factorization Machine Learning for Disaggregation of Transmission Load Profiles with High Penetration of Behind-The-Meter Solar

The ever-growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), especially behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations, poses imperative operational challenges to system operators such as regional transmission organizations (RTOs). It is important for RTOs to effectively and accurately extract actual load profiles at the transmission level for a single node with significant BTM solar injection. This paper first illustrates the necessity of disaggregating the daily actual load profile of a single node. Furthermore, by segmenting nodes with selected timeseries features, nodes with significant BTM solar generation are identified. Lastly, a bi-level framework is proposed, comprising reference node disaggregation and DeepFM nodal disaggregation, aimed at disaggregating the nodal load profiles from which system operators require more information. By adopting a hybrid Deep Factorization Machine (DeepFM) model, the model achieve accurate results by extracting both linear and nonlinear relations between nodes in the same region and the zonal load and nodal load profile. To overcome the lack of ground truth, this paper segments the load profile into daytime, nighttime, and zero-crossing points and utilizes the latter two for evaluation purposes. The proposed disaggregation procedure is validated using real world, minute-level, normalized, and anonymized nodal data in the PJM service territory.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum-Cutting Luminescent Coatings for High-Efficiency, Low-Cost Solar Cells (Final Technical Report)

The objective of the project is to optimize the deposition and post-deposition annealing conditions of quantum-cutting materials to enable coatings with high photoluminescence quantum yields and optimal absorption onset. These coatings will be integrated with commercial solar photovoltaic cells to enable improved power conversion efficiency, and the quantum-cutting cell stability will be ensured using industry-standard packaging methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Next Generation Integrated PV Products Cost and Workflow Analysis (Final Report)

Residential photovoltaic (PV) costs have fallen consistently for over a decade (Ardani et al. 2018). DOE has subsequently developed a new residential PV cost target for 2030 of $0.05/kilowatt hour (SETO 2023). Ardani et al. (2018) conclude that integrated roofing and PV (RIPV) products may be key to achieving the residential target for both new construction and retrofit residential PV. In RIPV, the PV product is incorporated into or replaces the roofing material. RIPV systems can use conventional crystalline or thin-film technologies, may be aesthetically attractive alternatives to traditional racked and mounted PV systems, and may increase building property values (Cook et al. 2023). These products also have the potential to provide customer acquisition, labor, and equipment cost savings over traditional, racked and mounted residential rooftop PV and several companies have recently introduced integrated roofing and PV (RIPV) products (Cook et al. 2023). In 2022, Tesla was the market leader, representing 94% of RIPV capacity installed in 2022 through its Solar Roof offering, while GAF Energy and its Timberline Solar product was second capturing 3% (Feldman et al. 2023). In this project, NREL analyzed three research questions: (1) How do current RIPV products compare to racked and mounted PV in terms of costs, install times and processes? (2) How are RIPV products installed and are there opportunities for cost savings? (3) What are the key barriers to expanding market opportunities for integrating solar and roofing products? In this project, we explored residential RIPV cost reduction opportunities by analyzing installation processes. Our study documented residential RIPV installations at two reroofing sites (20.52 kilowatts) and the equivalent of nine new construction sites (71.75 kW) in California through a methodology known as time and motion study. We also conducted 15 interviews with subject-matter experts to identify barriers and solutions to maximize these products' market penetration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emission Assessments of Solar and Energy Efficiency Improvements at Small Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Small water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) account for the majority of centralized systems in the world and have higher energy intensities than large facilities. This study compares potential greenhouse gas emission reductions based on on-site solar energy and energy efficiency (E2) improvements made at small WRRFs. Case study data from 31 existing small WRRFs in Nebraska were collected and included 35 site-specific energy efficiency (E2) recommendations and on-site solar renewable energy systems integrated at three facilities, and the data were used to compare the benefits of on-site solar energy and E2 improvements made at small WRRFs. Improvements in E2 (e.g., improved aeration control) presented the largest reduction in emissions per dollar invested. They often exhibited shorter paybacks, with operational changes in aeration strategies showing the highest impact (up to 0.2 kg CO2eq/m3 treated water). On-site solar systems showed the largest net potential for reducing environmental footprint (0.35 kg CO2eq/m3) but often showed the smallest emissions reduction per cost. While the use of both E2 improvements and the integration of on-site solar renewable energy can significantly improve the sustainability of small WRRFs, on-site solar has advantages for small facilities in that it often requires less operational involvement, allows for greater facility resiliency, and presents less uncertainty in terms of environmental benefit.

Thompson, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preface for frontiers of magnetic reconnection research in heliophysical, astrophysical, and laboratory plasmas

Magnetic reconnection—the topological rearrangement of magnetic field—underlies many explosive phenomena across a wide range of natural and laboratory plasmas.3 It plays a pivotal role in electron and ion heating, particle acceleration to high energies, energy transport, and self-organization. Reconnection can have a complex relationship with turbulence at both large and small scales, leading to various effects that are only beginning to be understood. In heliophysics, magnetic reconnection plays a key role in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, coronal heating, solar wind dissipation, the interaction of interplanetary plasma with magnetospheres, dynamics of planetary magnetospheres such as magnetic substorms, and the heliospheric boundary with the interstellar medium. Here, the magnetic reconnection is integral to the solar and planetary dynamo processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Greenfield Geothermal Hybrid Power Plants using a Solar or Natural Gas Steam Topping Cycle

The relatively low generation costs associated with wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and natural-gas power plants make it challenging for geothermal power plants to produce and sell the power that has the reliability and sustainability characteristics that are greatly needed in U.S. power markets. This is especially true for geothermal resources with low-to-medium temperatures, which results in relatively low-thermal efficiency and generation costs that are higher than those for wind, solar PV, and natural gas. This analysis evaluates solar thermal- and natural-gas combustion waste heat recovery-based topping cycle hybridization of geothermal binary power plants. This approach provides several benefits that may allow geothermal power plants to generate power at more competitive costs. First, the addition of solar thermal energy or natural-gas combustion waste heat input to a geothermal power plant provides additional heat input that can be converted to electrical power. Second, the temperature level of the heat obtained from concentrating solar collectors or natural-gas combustion exhaust is higher than that of geothermal heat, which provides opportunities for improving the efficiency of the conversion of thermal energy to electrical power. Third, the ease with which solar thermal systems integrate with energy storage and the flexibility of natural gas means power generation can occur during peak demand periods. The hybrid cycles are compared to equivalently sized, co-located, independent geothermal, concentrating solar, and/or natural-gas power plants. The hybrid cycle tends to produce slightly more power than the standalone plants combined. However, the hybrid plant Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is slightly higher than the LCOE of the combined standalone power plants for each of the case study locations investigated. Using the steam-topping cycle, organic Rankine cycle (ORC)-bottoming cycle hybrid plant design to combine a solar thermal resource and low- temperature geothermal resource (<120 degrees C) leads to a hybrid plant with a lower LCOE than a standalone geothermal-only system. Thus, hybrid plants may enable the economic development of geothermal resources in locations with low geothermal resource temperatures. However, in areas with higher geothermal resource temperatures (>120 degrees C), the geothermal-only plant has a lower LCOE than the hybrid cycle and thus could be developed without the need for solar heat addition. iv A geothermal-natural-gas reciprocating engine hybrid plant was evaluated for an Elk Hills, California case study location. The Elk Hills case study analysis indicates that when the natural-gas engine operates for more than 12 hours per day the hybrid plant can produce power at an LCOE lower than a standalone geothermal plant, and comparable to that of the standalone natural-gas reciprocating engine, while also reducing the carbon intensity of the power generated relative to the standalone natural-gas engine. This may represent a scenario in which the hybrid plant provides an opportunity for the deployment of a low-temperature geothermal resource that otherwise may have an LCOE too high to develop and operate as a standalone resource, while also reducing the carbon intensity of natural-gas generation sources. A "triple-hybrid" plant that combines natural gas, solar thermal, thermal energy storage, and geothermal was also investigated. A natural-gas combustion turbine (NGCT) is added to the geothermal-solar hybrid such that the hot exhaust gas from the gas turbine provides an alternative source of heat to the steam turbine of the hybrid cycle. Analysis results suggest that the triple-hybrid plant has a significantly higher energy generation and revenue than a standalone NGCT or the original geothermal-solar hybrid. The triple-hybrid design benefits most from using a smaller solar field so that the solar energy can be dispatched at the most valuable times available. The triple-hybrid plant also has a lower LCOE than the standalone NGCT. The triple-hybrid plant was evaluated making simple assumptions about the dispatch profile of the gas cycle, and more nuanced and realistic dispatching schedules should be analyzed in future work.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗