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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

ERF: Energy Research and Forecasting Model

High performance computing (HPC) architectures have undergone rapid development in recent years. As a result, established software suites face an ever increasing challenge to remain performant on and portable across modern systems. Many of the widely adopted atmospheric modeling codes cannot fully (or in some cases, at all) leverage the acceleration provided by General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units, leaving users of those codes constrained to increasingly limited HPC resources. Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) is a regional atmospheric modeling code that leverages the latest HPC architectures, whether composed of only Central Processing Units (CPUs) or incorporating GPUs. ERF contains many of the standard discretizations and basic features needed to model general atmospheric dynamics. The modular design of ERF provides a flexible platform for exploring different physics parameterizations and numerical strategies. ERF is built on a state-of-the-art, well-supported, software framework (AMReX) that provides a performance portable interface and ensures ERF's long-term sustainability on next generation computing systems. This paper details the numerical methodology of ERF, presents results for a series of verification/validation cases, and documents ERF's performance on current HPC systems. The roughly 5× speed up of ERF (using GPUs) over Weather Research and Forecasting (CPUs only) for a 3D squall line test case highlights the significance of leveraging GPU acceleration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Next-Generation Urban Decision Support Systems through AI-Powered Construction of Scientific Ontology Using Large Language Models—A Case in Optimizing Intermodal Freight Transportation

The incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models into various optimization systems is on the rise. However, addressing complex urban and environmental management challenges often demands deep expertise in domain science and informatics. This expertise is essential for deriving data and simulation-driven insights that support informed decision-making. In this context, we investigate the potential of leveraging the pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to create knowledge representations for supporting operations research. By adopting ChatGPT-4 API as the reasoning core, we outline an applied workflow that encompasses natural language processing, Methontology-based prompt tuning, and Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), to automate the construction of scenario-based ontologies using existing research articles and technical manuals of urban datasets and simulations. From these ontologies, knowledge graphs can be derived using widely adopted formats and protocols, guiding various tasks towards data-informed decision support. The performance of our methodology is evaluated through a comparative analysis that contrasts our AI-generated ontology with the widely recognized pizza ontology, commonly used in tutorials for popular ontology software. We conclude with a real-world case study on optimizing the complex system of multi-modal freight transportation. Our approach advances urban decision support systems by enhancing data and metadata modeling, improving data integration and simulation coupling, and guiding the development of decision support strategies and essential software components.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (Version 3.0 Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computationally and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 3.0. HyRAM 3.0 includes the new ability to model cryogenic hydrogen releases from liquid hydrogen systems, using a different property calculation method and different equations of state. Other changes include modifications to the ignition probability calculations, component leak frequency calculations, and addition of default impulse data.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (V.3.1) (Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet res, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM version 3.1. There have been several impactful updates since version 3.0. HyRAM 3.1 contains a correction to use the volume fraction for two-phase speed of sound calculations; this only affects cryogenic releases in which two-phase ow (vapor and liquid) is predicted in the orifice. Other changes include clarifications that inputs for tank pressure should be given in absolute pressure, not gauge pressure. Additionally, the interface now rejects invalid inputs to probability distributions, and the less accurate single-point radiative source model selection was removed from the interface.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) (Technical Reference Manual V.4)

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ includes generic probabilities for equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of release and flame physics. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM+ is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 4.0 from HyRAM version 3.1 is the incorporation of other alternative fuels, namely methane (as a proxy for natural gas) and propane into the toolkit. This change necessitated significant changes to the installable graphical user interface as well as changes to the back-end Python models. A second major change is the inclusion of physics models for the overpressure associated with the delayed ignition of an unconfined jet/plume of flammable gas.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Memory forensic analysis of a programmable logic controller in industrial control systems

In industrial control systems (ICS), programmable logic controllers (PLCs) are used to automate physical processes such as nuclear plants and power grid stations, and are often subject to cyber attacks. As in conventional IT domain, the memory analysis of the PLCs can help answer important forensic questions about the attack, such as the presence of malicious firmware, injection of modified control logic (the program running on the PLC), and manipulation of I/O devices (e.g., sensors and actuators). Unlike conventional IT domain, PLCs have heterogeneous hardware architecture, proprietary firmware and control software, making it challenging to employ a unified framework for their memory forensics. For merely extracting artifacts of forensic importance, reverse-engineering the firmware is a tedious task, and the effort needs to be repeated for every PLC model. As a community, a step-wise approach to tackle this challenge is to analyze the memory of specific PLCs, and subsequently find a generic framework applicable to all PLCs. Our work is a step forward in this direction. By following a methodology that focuses on the functional layer of PLCs instead of reverse engineering the firmware, we analyze the digital forensic artifacts available in a common PLC, Allen-Bradley ControlLogix 1756-L61. Before diving into the memory dump, we analyze the PLC control software to create a list of important artifacts that are sure to exist in the PLC memory dump. The approach employs a setup where PLC control software RSLogix-5000 is connected to the PLC, and the memory dump can be obtained as and when needed. We create test cases that sequentially highlight each category of artifacts, followed by an examination of the resultant impact on memory. After attaining the listed artifacts, we employ conventional string and known data searches to extract interesting information present in this PLC's memory. The memory analysis profile, presented as a Python library and shared with the community, can help a forensic investigator to readily extract forensic artifacts from the same model's controller. The adopted approach may help researchers in creating memory profile of other PLCs, and ultimately formulating a generic PLC memory analysis framework.

Rais, Muhammad Haris↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced Models for Chemical Kinetics derived from Parallel Ensemble Simulations of Stirred Reactors

Detailed chemical kinetic models are essential to improve the predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and to impact the development of next generation combustion technologies. However, such detailed kinetic models are beyond the reach of CFD codes due to the computational cost of transporting additional chemical degrees of freedom. Reduced order models for combustion kinetics exploit the presence of lower dimensional manifolds in the state space and require far fewer number of scalars to be transported as part of CFD simulations. In this paper, we describe the software infrastructure developed to allow large ensembles of stirred reactor configurations with detailed chemical kinetics. The canonical reactor simulations are incorporated in a workflow with sparse grid and data reduction methodologies aimed at development of reduced order models. We present results from analyzing the results of the stirred reactor calculations for syngas mixture using principal component analysis (PCA) and neural network methodologies. The results show that nonlinear autoencoder model can surpass PCA in representing the original dataset with far fewer degrees of freedom.

Zhang, Pei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verification of the REBUS Software

Ongoing design activities at Argonne National Laboratory are requiring a thorough verification of the Argonne Reactor Computation codes be performed. REBUS is central to this system. The driver for this effort requires the Triangular-Z and hexagonal-Z core geometry options of REBUS to be verified. Previous work identified the REBUS features required to be verified to support current design activities, features of which are generally applicable to hexagonal-Z fast reactor designs. The scope of this verification effort includes verifying REBUS’s ability to correctly intepret the user input model, verifying that the features identified yield the intended results, and verifying the correctness of the REBUS output tables. The REBUS software verification relies heavily upon the accuracy of the embedded DIF3D software, the verification of which was completed and documented elsewhere. Given that DIF3D produces an accurate solution, the primary focus of the verification in the REBUS software is to ensure that it properly uses the DIF3D solution and that the depletion system (Bateman equations) are correctly implemented. This manuscript reiterates the verification tasks and displays results with respect to the features needed for current design activities. Analytic solutions of the Batemen equations are displayed and the results calculated with REBUS are displayed demonstrating the accuracy. Since coupled Bateman and neutron diffusion/transport solutions are extremely difficult to obtain, much of the focus is placed on how REBUS uses a given DIF3D solution assuming the accuracy of the DIF3D solution. The verification effort identified no issues that are debilitating or otherwise impactful to the design usage of REBUS, and thus REBUS version 11.0, release 3012 is considered verified. It is important to note that several outputs of REBUS are identified to be inaccurate, such as burnup in MWD/MT. Most of the relevant ones for VTR are generally accurate with 10-20% errors which is not impactful as all regular REBUS users are aware of this issue and know how to hand calculate the results. The REBUS manual further makes it clear that these values are consistent with the methodology being used by REBUS and thus the “errors” are more of an inconsistent definition with respect to what a user would expect given a definition in literature. Other issues that were identified included unclear documentation and software bugs all of which were inconsequential to the final results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonadiabatic Excited-State Molecular Dynamics for Open-Shell Systems

Nonadiabatic Molecular Dynamics (NAMD) of excited states has been widely used in the simulation of photoinduced phenomena. However, the inability to treat bond breaking and forming processes with single-reference electronic structure methods limits their application in photochemistry for extended molecular systems. In this work, the extension of excited-state NAMD for open-shell systems is developed and implemented in the NEXMD software. We present the spin-unrestricted CIS and TDSCF formalism for the ground and excited states, analytical derivatives, and nonadiabatic derivative couplings for the respective potential energy surfaces. Next, this methodology is employed to study the photochemical reaction of three model molecules. The results demonstrate the advantage of the open-shell approach in modeling photochemical reactions, especially involving bond breaking processes. We find that the open-shell method lowers the reaction barrier at the bond-breaking limits resulting in larger calculated photochemical quantum yields compared to the respective closed-shell results. We also address problems related to spin contamination in the open-shell method, especially when molecular geometries are far from equilibrium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Black-Box Optimization for Design of Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaic Hybrid Systems with Optimal Dispatch Decisions

The hybridization of concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaics (PV) can enable dispatchable renewable electricity generation at a lower price than current stand-alone CSP systems. However, designing a CSP-PV hybrid system can be challenging because of the many degrees of freedom in design that affect the internal and external system interactions and trade-offs. We develop a methodology to determine optimal designs for CSP-PV hybrids by implementing NLopt's derivative-free, or “black-box,” algorithms around pre-existing CSP-PV hybrid simulation software that utilizes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM); we then employ a dispatch optimization model to determine operational decisions that maximize a plant’s profits. We present optimal designs for CSP-PV hybrid systems dispatching against four time-of-delivery (ToD) pricing structures. NLopt’s algorithms can improve the base case design’s power purchase agreement (PPA) price by 15% to 21%, depending on the ToD pricing structure. In addition, we present the resulting optimal CSP-PV hybrid design’s annual performance metrics, which tend to have capacity factors between 50% and 62%, but are able to generate electricity during the year’s highest-valued periods about 90% of the time. Lastly, we investigate the trade-offs between capacity factor and PPA price using Pareto fronts and demonstrate that, for some ToD pricing structures, the system capacity factor can increase by 20% but at the expense of a 2% increase in PPA price.

black-box↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mission planning for photogrammetry-based autonomous 3D Mapping of Dams using a commercial UAV

The application of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for conducting inspections of dams represents an innovative approach aimed at enhancing safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. In this context, this paper presents algorithms for UAV mission design in autonomous dam inspections that include the creation of a 3D map based on photogrammetry. The algorithms were systematically developed to incorporate a comprehensive set of parameters that account for the geometric characteristics of the dam and adhere to photogrammetry specifications. To validate the proposed methodology, we utilized a commercial programmable quadrotor, specifically the Parrot Anafi USA Gov drone, which is equipped with high-quality cameras and can be programmed with the help of a software development kit (SDK) provided by the manufacturer. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of our method, highlighting how the generated maps can be used for hazard detection in the downstream slope of dams.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Determining Levels of Detail for Simulators of Parallel and Distributed Computing Systems via Automated Calibration

There are two sources of inaccuracy when simulating parallel and distributed computing systems: (i) a simulator implemented at an insufficient level of detail; and (ii) incorrectly calibrated simulation parameter values. Increasing the simulator’s level of detail can improve accuracy, but at the cost of higher space, time, and/or software complexity. Furthermore, evaluating the intrinsic accuracy of a simulator requires that its parameters be well-calibrated. Making decisions regarding the level of detail is thus challenging. We propose a methodology for instantiating the simulation calibration process and a framework for automating this process, which makes it possible to pick appropriate levels of detail for any simulator. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach via two case studies for two different domains.

McDonald, Jessie [University of Hawaii at Manoa, H↗
DOE OSTI2023

Abisko: Deep codesign of an architecture for spiking neural networks using novel neuromorphic materials

The Abisko project aims to develop an energy-efficient spiking neural network (SNN) computing architecture and software system capable of autonomous learning and operation. The SNN architecture explores novel neuromorphic devices that are based on resistive-switching materials, such as memristors and electrochemical RAM. Equally important, Abisko uses a deep codesign approach to pursue this goal by engaging experts from across the entire range of disciplines: materials, devices and circuits, architectures and integration, software, and algorithms. Here, the key objectives of our Abisko project are threefold. First, we are designing an energy-optimized high-performance neuromorphic accelerator based on SNNs. This architecture is being designed as a chiplet that can be deployed in contemporary computer architectures and we are investigating novel neuromorphic materials to improve its design. Second, we are concurrently developing a productive software stack for the neuromorphic accelerator that will also be portable to other architectures, such as field-programmable gate arrays and GPUs. Third, we are creating a new deep codesign methodology and framework for developing clear interfaces, requirements, and metrics between each level of abstraction to enable the system design to be explored and implemented interchangeably with execution, measurement, a model, or simulation. As a motivating application for this codesign effort, we target the use of SNNs for an analog event detector for a high-energy physics sensor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Employing MACS/ViBRANT as a Surrogate MARVEL Reactor for Startup Reactivity Tuning and Supervisory Control Processes

Advanced nuclear reactors are a key part of the future of nuclear energy both in the United States and globally. They offer unique benefits for various energy-demanding applications, including use in remote locations, compact size, modular manufacturing, remote monitoring, low and/or variable power rating operation, and reliance on novel technologies to enhance operational safety. To achieve economic feasibility, advanced reactors must significantly reduce their workforces in comparison with the current fleet. Achieving this reduction will occur through reducing staff workloads using technology to achieve autonomous or semi-autonomous operations, demonstrated by comprehensive testing and validation activities. These operations will require both software and hardware platforms during the design and testing phases. While simulations are useful during the design phase, their performance can significantly deviate during actual deployment on hardware. This report presents the outcomes of a collaborative technical initiative between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP) and Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) Program. The collaboration utilized the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform to bridge the gap between theoretical reactor design and actual startup and control operations. Two key use cases were investigated: facilitating the startup testing period and demonstrating supervisory control. The first use case details the key Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor startup physics testing activities conducted using the MACS platform. These activities included drum worth measurements, shutdown margin assessment, temperature feedback analysis, and scram time evaluation, as well as unique testing that would apply to the MARVEL reactor to demonstrate the testing methodologies in a low-risk environment. The MACS platform, serving as a surrogate representation of the MARVEL reactor, proved instrumental in performing these tests. The exercise revealed aspects that led to optimized processes, refined hardware design, and enhanced base software capabilities. By maturing methods and technologies in this manner, the initiative promises to reduce wasted time in the actual on-site reactor deployment effort, thereby saving significant time and resources. The second use case focuses on the development and implementation of supervisory control methods aimed at managing core tilt, which can result from asymmetrical operations or manufacturing imperfections in fuel rods or reactivity control devices. A key objective was to assess and compare the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for supervisory control. The effort aimed to define the role of supervisory control to enhance performance without risking control instability. This effort explored three distinct approaches: rules-based (RB) methods, optimization techniques, and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Each approach was evaluated for its ease of implementation, its usability, and its effectiveness in responding to asymmetries in neutron flux. Comparative analysis of these approaches provided valuable insights into their applicability and effectiveness, offering a robust framework for advanced reactor operations. Together, these two use cases highlight the potential of hardware test beds to help streamline the design, operation, and control of advanced nuclear reactors. This collaborative effort underscores the importance of continued innovation and experimentation in achieving the next generation of safe, reliable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗