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NASA NTRS2022

Leveraging Pre-storm Soil Moisture Estimates for Enhanced Land Surface Model Calibration in Ungauged Hydrologic Basins

Despite long-standing efforts, hydrologists still lack robust tools for calibrating land surface model (LSM) streamflow estimates within ungauged basins. Using surface soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, precipitation observations, and streamflow gauge measurements for 617 medium-scale (200-10,000 km2) basins in the contiguous United States, we measure the temporal (Spearman) rank correlation between antecedent (i.e., pre-storm) surface soil moisture (ASM) and the storm-scale runoff coefficient (RC; the fraction of storm-scale precipitation accumulation converted into streamflow). In humid and semi-humid basins, this rank correlation is shown to be sufficiently strong to allow for the substitution of storm-scale RC observations (available only in basins that are both lightly regulated and gauged) with high-quality ASM values (available quasi-globally from L4_SM) in streamflow calibration procedures. Using this principle, we define a new, basin-wise LSM streamflow calibration approach based on L4_SM alone and successfully apply it to identify LSM configurations that produce a high rank correlation with observed RC. However, since the approach cannot detect RC bias, it is less successful in identifying LSM configurations with low mean-absolute error. Plain Text Summary Accurately forecasting the fraction of rainfall that runs off into streams, as opposed to infiltrates into the soil, is critical for flash-flood prediction, water-resource monitoring, and tracking the transport of nutrients from agricultural fields into local waterways. Such forecasting is typically performed by hydrologic models that attempt to represent the physical processes responsible for surface runoff generation. However, to provide accurate streamflow forecasts, these models typically need to be calibrated against actual streamflow observations. This is problematic given the relatively poor, and declining, global availability of stream gauges. This paper presents a novel model calibration strategy that uses soil moisture from remote sensing and numerical modeling in place of streamflow observations during calibration. This transition has significant practical advantages because, unlike streamflow observations, the soil moisture data are continuously available across space. Our results demonstrate that this new approach can significantly improve hydrologic models within humid and semi-humid basins lacking sufficient ground-based instrumentation for traditional streamflow calibration.

hydrologic models↗

NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Hybrid state-space self-tuning control of uncertain linear systems

The paper presents a hybrid state-space self-tuner using a new dual-rate sampling scheme for digital adaptive control of continuous-time uncertain linear systems. A state-space-based recursive least-squares algorithm, together with a variable forgetting factor, is used for direct estimations of both the equivalent discrete-time uncertain linear system parameters and the associated discrete-time state of a continuous-time uncertain linear system from the sampled input and output data. An analogue optimal regional pole-placement design method is used for designing an optimal observer-based analogue controller. A suboptimal observer-based digital controller is then designed from the designed analogue controller using digital redesign technique. To enhance the robustness of parameter identification and state estimation algorithms, a dynamic bound for a class of uncertain bilinear parameters and a fast-rate digital controller are developed at each fast-sampling period. Also, to accommodate computation loads and computation delay for developing the advanced hybrid self-tuner, the designed analogue controller and observer gains are both updated at each slow-sampling period. This control technique has been successfully applied to benchmark control problems.

Shieh, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Adaptive Nonlinear Aircraft Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Approach for Online Applications

A nonlinear aircraft model is presented and used to develop an overall unified robust and adaptive approach to passive trim and maneuverability envelope estimation with uncertainty quantification. The concept of time scale separation makes this method suitable for the online characterization of altered safe maneuvering limitations after impairment. The results can be used to provide pilot feedback and/or be combined with flight planning, trajectory generation, and guidance algorithms to help maintain safe aircraft operations in both nominal and off-nominal scenarios.

nonlinearity↗

NASA NTRS1990

Towards a methodology for robust parameter identification

Consideration is given to the problem of estimating, from experimental data, real parameters for a model with uncertainty in the form of both additive noise and norm-bounded perturbations. Such models frequently arise in robust control theory, and a framework is introduced for the consideration of experimental data in robust control analysis problems. If the analysis tools applied include robust stability tests for real parameter variations (real mu), the framework can be used to address the problem of robust parameter identification. While the techniques discussed can quickly become computationally overwhelming when applied to physical systems and real data, the approach introduces a novel way of looking at the identification problem and may be helpful in arriving at a more tractable methodology.

Smith, Roy S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Worst-Case Flutter Margins from F/A-18 Aircraft Aeroelastic Data

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, micron, computes a stability margin which directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The micron margins are robust margins which indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 SRA using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Lind, Rick↗

NASA NTRS1998

Robust Flutter Margin Analysis that Incorporates Flight Data

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, mu, computes a stability margin that directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The mu margins are robust margins that indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 Systems Research Aircraft using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Lind, Rick↗

NASA NTRS2000

A LEO Satellite Navigation Algorithm Based on GPS and Magnetometer Data

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has become a standard method for low cost onboard satellite orbit determination. The use of a GPS receiver as an attitude and rate sensor has also been developed in the recent past. Additionally, focus has been given to attitude and orbit estimation using the magnetometer, a low cost, reliable sensor. Combining measurements from both GPS and a magnetometer can provide a robust navigation system that takes advantage of the estimation qualities of both measurements. Ultimately a low cost, accurate navigation system can result, potentially eliminating the need for more costly sensors, including gyroscopes.

Deutschmann, Julie↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Leo Satellite Navigation Algorithm Based on GPS and Magnetometer Data

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has become a standard method for low cost onboard satellite orbit determination. The use of a GPS receiver as an attitude and rate sensor has also been developed in the recent past. Additionally, focus has been given to attitude and orbit estimation using the magnetometer, a low cost, reliable sensor. Combining measurements from both GPS and a magnetometer can provide a robust navigation system that takes advantage of the estimation qualities of both measurements. Ultimately, a low cost, accurate navigation system can result, potentially eliminating the need for more costly sensors, including gyroscopes. This work presents the development of a technique to eliminate numerical differentiation of the GPS phase measurements and also compares the use of one versus two GPS satellites.

Deutschmann, Julie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Planning and Online Performance Model Estimation for Advanced Air Mobility

We propose a framework for adaptive guidance based on optimal control and estimation using closed-loop performance models. In the proposed approach, parameters of a reduced-order performance model are estimated in real time so that trajectories and guidance commands are replanned with more accurate knowledge of the system's response and performance capabilities. To apply this methodology to flight control systems, we introduce a simple yet expressive performance model modified from a reference linear design model. The proposed framework is applied to guidance of a simulated Advanced Air Mobility class concept aircraft experiencing control effector failures. We demonstrate that, by optimizing performance model parameters in real time, guidance commands can be intelligently adjusted to recover system stability and the performance of a full-order vehicle model, even in the event of effector failures. Furthermore, the reduced-order performance model requires a fraction of the computational cost of the full-order model, facilitating real-time use of adaptive, optimal guidance.

Differential dynamic programming↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Planning and Online Performance Model Estimation for Advanced Air Mobility

Differential dynamic programming↗

NASA NTRS1992

Robust rendezvous maneuver point conditions

This study develops rendezvous maneuver point conditions that are robust to one dimensional errors in state estimation and burn execution. Allowing small deviations in the time of intercept provides a degree of freedom that can be used to compensate for these errors. The direction of allowable burn deviation is developed for errors in state estimation and burn execution. The maneuver points for which the error is aligned with the insensitive direction provide excellent rendezvous initiation points. The method is applied to sample rendezvous for vehicles in circular and elliptic orbits. Robust maneuver points are selected and the vehicles' relative motion plotted, demonstrating the validity of the maneuver points. Finally, a graphical illustration of the error focusing effect is demonstrated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation.

Fogle, Debra Ann↗

NASA NTRS2020

Robustness and Behavior of Adjoint Calculations of Observation Impacts in Numerical Weather Prediction

Adjoint models are powerful tools that can be used to estimate the impact of observations on a chosen norm for numerical weather prediction forecasts. In this study, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment framework is employed to investigate the behavior of the adjoint tool in an environment where the 'true' state of the atmosphere is fully known. This allows for the calculation of adjoint estimates of observation impact for very short forecast times including the zero-hour analysis state. The adjoint calculations using self-analysis verification can also be compared to adjoint calculations using the 'truth' as verification in order to characterize the robustness of adjoint estimations in the operational setting. Results from a experiments exploring various aspects of performance of the adjoint tool will be presented.

Prive, Nikki C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Automated Characterization Of Vibrations Of A Structure

Automated method of characterizing dynamical properties of large flexible structure yields estimates of modal parameters used by robust control system to stabilize structure and minimize undesired motions. Based on extraction of desired modal and control-design data from responses of structure to known vibrational excitations. Applicable to terrestrial structures where vibrations are important - aircraft, buildings, bridges, cranes, and drill strings.

Bayard, David S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Overview of Recent Flight Flutter Testing Research at NASA Dryden

In response to the concerns of the aeroelastic community, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California, is conducting research into improving the flight flutter (including aeroservoelasticity) test process with more accurate and automated techniques for stability boundary prediction. The important elements of this effort so far include the following: (1) excitation mechanisms for enhanced vibration data to reduce uncertainty levels in stability estimates; (2) investigation of a variety of frequency, time, and wavelet analysis techniques for signal processing, stability estimation, and nonlinear identification; and (3) robust flutter boundary prediction to substantially reduce the test matrix for flutter clearance. These are critical research topics addressing the concerns of a recent AGARD Specialists' Meeting on Advanced Aeroservoelastic Testing and Data Analysis. This paper addresses these items using flight test data from the F/A-18 Systems Research Aircraft and the F/A-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle.

Brenner, Martin J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Speed Sensorless Induction Motor Drives for Electrical Actuators: Schemes, Trends and Tradeoffs

For a decade, induction motor drive-based electrical actuators have been under investigation as potential replacement for the conventional hydraulic and pneumatic actuators in aircraft. Advantages of electric actuator include lower weight and size, reduced maintenance and operating costs, improved safety due to the elimination of hazardous fluids and high pressure hydraulic and pneumatic actuators, and increased efficiency. Recently, the emphasis of research on induction motor drives has been on sensorless vector control which eliminates flux and speed sensors mounted on the motor. Also, the development of effective speed and flux estimators has allowed good rotor flux-oriented (RFO) performance at all speeds except those close to zero. Sensorless control has improved the motor performance, compared to the Volts/Hertz (or constant flux) controls. This report evaluates documented schemes for speed sensorless drives, and discusses the trends and tradeoffs involved in selecting a particular scheme. These schemes combine the attributes of the direct and indirect field-oriented control (FOC) or use model adaptive reference systems (MRAS) with a speed-dependent current model for flux estimation which tracks the voltage model-based flux estimator. Many factors are important in comparing the effectiveness of a speed sensorless scheme. Among them are the wide speed range capability, motor parameter insensitivity and noise reduction. Although a number of schemes have been proposed for solving the speed estimation, zero-speed FOC with robustness against parameter variations still remains an area of research for speed sensorless control.

Elbuluk, Malik E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Spherical Earth Solution for TOA Lightning Location Retrieval

The problem of retrieving ligntning, ground-strike location on a spherical Earth surface using a network of 4 or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors is considered, It is shown that this problem has an analytic solution and therefore does not require the use of nonlinear estimation theory (e.g., minimization). The mathematical robustness of the analytic solution is tested using computer-generated lightning sources and simulated TOA measurement errors. A summary of a quasi-analytic extension of the spherical Earth solution to an oblate spheroid Earth geometry is also provided.

Koshak, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Study on the Requirements for Fast Active Turbine Tip Clearance Control Systems

This paper addresses the requirements of a control system for active turbine tip clearance control in a generic commercial turbofan engine through design and analysis. The control objective is to articulate the shroud in the high pressure turbine section in order to maintain a certain clearance set point given several possible engine transient events. The system must also exhibit reasonable robustness to modeling uncertainties and reasonable noise rejection properties. Two actuators were chosen to fulfill such a requirement, both of which possess different levels of technological readiness: electrohydraulic servovalves and piezoelectric stacks. Identification of design constraints, desired actuator parameters, and actuator limitations are addressed in depth; all of which are intimately tied with the hardware and controller design process. Analytical demonstrations of the performance and robustness characteristics of the two axisymmetric LQG clearance control systems are presented. Takeoff simulation results show that both actuators are capable of maintaining the clearance within acceptable bounds and demonstrate robustness to parameter uncertainty. The present model-based control strategy was employed to demonstrate the tradeoff between performance, control effort, and robustness and to implement optimal state estimation in a noisy engine environment with intent to eliminate ad hoc methods for designing reliable control systems.

DeCastro, Jonathan A.↗