Results for “risk informed design” — Page 11

NASA NTRS2022

Preliminary Analysis of Separation Standards for Urban Air Mobility using Unmitigated Fast-Time Simulation

This research provides a preliminary analysis of various separation standards for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. This study focuses on understanding and analyzing potential conflicts between UAM flights and conflicts between UAM and conventional aircraft. Fast-time simulations are conducted with a projected high-density of UAM traffic scenario and historical conventional non-UAM traffic flying under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or Visual Flight Rules (VFR) in Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace. The conflicts are analyzed by examining losses of separation and near mid-air collisions of UAM flights and unmitigated risk of collision. A set of varied separation standards are used to investigate the impact of the new UAM operations on safety. The preliminary conflict analysis results will help inform separation standards development and in airspace and route design activities for future UAM operations.

Urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Prelaunch Analysis and Process

NASA implemented an official Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8079.1 in June 2023, establishing the minimum collision avoidance requirements and associated operational protocols for NASA space flight programs, projects, and spacecraft to protect the space environment by reducing the risk of collision to an acceptable level. Part of the requirement employs a two-fold approach to analyze the satellite design process with conjunction assessment and risk mitigation in mind, during the pre-launch process, led by the Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Program for non-Human Space Flight (HSF) Missions. This presentation outlines CARA coordination with missions, informed by the NPR, that spans early mission development to operations. CARA is an Agency-level resource that provides support to all NASA non-HSF missions. CARA protects the orbital environment from collision between NASA non-HSF missions and other tracked on-orbit objects. During the pre-formulation and formulation phases, NASA missions undergo a series of conjunction assessment analyses captured in the Orbital Collision Avoidance Plan (OCAP) prior to transitioning to the implementation phase (typically at the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) or equivalent). The OCAP analyses consist of a thorough review of the spacecraft(s) orbit selection and placement, deployment, cataloguing performance, trackability, ephemeris generation, conjunction mitigation options, autonomous maneuvering, and risk assessment parameters which are performed by a dedicated CARA Analysis Team. The results of these analyses, CARA’s formal recommendations, and the mission’s methods for implementing them, are documented in the OCAP. The intent of engaging in this process so early in the mission design phase, is to ensure that conjunction assessment is considered from the outset, thus mitigating costly design changes and operational risks down the road. NASA missions are also required to coordinate their operational processes and conjunction mitigation procedures with CARA in a Conjunction Assessment Operations Implementation Agreement (CAOIA). The aim of this process is to document the conjunction assessment screening process, conjunction risk assessment parameters, conjunction mitigation steps, flight dynamics operations concepts and maneuvers, and the communication and coordination process between the mission’s project manager and CARA. The intent of the CAOIA document is for it to be completed iteratively, and as missions update these elements, corresponding changes are made in the CAOIA. With this process in place, the engagement and coordination between the missions and CARA from early in the design process into mission operations, helps to ensure that missions not only have a robust conjunction assessment concept of operations to reduce conjunction risk for space sustainability, but are also able to achieve their science goals and have a successful mission.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Prelaunch Analysis and Process

NASA implemented an official Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8079.1 in June 2023, establishing the minimum collision avoidance requirements and associated operational protocols for NASA space flight programs, projects, and spacecraft to protect the space environment by reducing the risk of collision to an acceptable level. Part of the requirement employs a two-fold approach to analyze the satellite design process with conjunction assessment and risk mitigation in mind, during the pre-launch process, led by the Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Program for non-Human Space Flight (HSF) Missions. This presentation outlines CARA coordination with missions, informed by the NPR, that spans early mission development to operations. CARA is an Agency-level resource that provides support to all NASA non-HSF missions. CARA protects the orbital environment from collision between NASA non-HSF missions and other tracked on-orbit objects. During the pre-formulation and formulation phases, NASA missions undergo a series of conjunction assessment analyses captured in the Orbital Collision Avoidance Plan (OCAP) prior to transitioning to the implementation phase (typically at the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) or equivalent). The OCAP analyses consist of a thorough review of the spacecraft(s) orbit selection and placement, deployment, cataloguing performance, trackability, ephemeris generation, conjunction mitigation options, autonomous maneuvering, and risk assessment parameters which are performed by a dedicated CARA Analysis Team. The results of these analyses, CARA’s formal recommendations, and the mission’s methods for implementing them, are documented in the OCAP. The intent of engaging in this process so early in the mission design phase, is to ensure that conjunction assessment is considered from the outset, thus mitigating costly design changes and operational risks down the road. NASA missions are also required to coordinate their operational processes and conjunction mitigation procedures with CARA in a Conjunction Assessment Operations Implementation Agreement (CAOIA). The aim of this process is to document the conjunction assessment screening process, conjunction risk assessment parameters, conjunction mitigation steps, flight dynamics operations concepts and maneuvers, and the communication and coordination process between the mission’s project manager and CARA. The intent of the CAOIA document is for it to be completed iteratively, and as missions update these elements, corresponding changes are made in the CAOIA. With this process in place, the engagement and coordination between the missions and CARA from early in the design process into mission operations, helps to ensure that missions not only have a robust conjunction assessment concept of operations to reduce conjunction risk for space sustainability, but are also able to achieve their science goals and have a successful mission.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center Dynamics and Controls (530)

AFRC Controls and Dynamics Branch - Research Areas: - Traditional GN&C - Classical and advanced control algorithms - Risk based approaches for safety critical applications - Integration of novel sensors and sensor fusion (FOSS, LIDAR, etc.) - Trajectory optimization and control - Flight/System Dynamics - Equations of Motion and integrated modeling of vehicles and vehicle systems - Unique and novel vehicle dynamics - Methods for extracting relevant vehicle dynamic information from flight data - Human and vehicle interfaces and interactions - Handling Qualities and Pilot-in-the-loop oscillations (PIO) predictions and design metrics - Ride quality research - Autonomy - Novel algorithms, sensors, and sensor fusion - Bounding risk for testing automated systems - Pilot/Operator interactions - Engineering Support and Airworthiness Assessments - Aircraft modifications and experimental configurations

Chris Miller↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Pilot Project for Quantifying the Effect of Medical Provider Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities on Outcomes for Spaceflight Using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

In order to enable the future of long-duration deep space exploration we must confront the uncertainty in medical risk. Limitations of communication, resupply, and evacuation in deep space will require a high degree of crew autonomy and accurate risk assessment will be critical to ensure adequate crew training and medical system design. To address this, NASA’s Human Research Program Exploration Medical Capability Element has developed the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces Tool (IMPACT). IMPACT is a suite of tools that can provide evidence-based, data-driven trade space assessments between available medical resources in the mass- and volume-constrained environment of a deep space exploration vehicle. In the current model, medical conditions either can or cannot be treated based on the availability of medical system resources and equipment. However, medical outcomes often depend just as much on the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA) of the provider operating the system. This paper presents a method for modeling and quantifying the effect of medical officer KSA on medically relevant mission risk outcomes during spaceflight.

capabilities↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars Surface Habitat Concept Design

An initial Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) concept design study was conducted as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Habitation Systems Development Office’s effort to inform NASA crewed Mars architecture decisions. The study assessed the unique challenges, risks, and benefits of a surface habitation element within the Mars architecture trade space. The goal of the study was to identify unique functional capabilities necessary to support a crewed mission on the Martian surface, the unique challenges and risks associated with such an architecture, and the areas of further analysis required to make such a mission possible. Continuing NASA’s development and execution of the Moon to Mars lunar surface missions, attention will continue progressing toward the initial crewed Mars mission. To prepare for this, NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) has established a strategic analysis cycle (SAC) where an architectural trade space is identified and evaluated. Given that the Mars architecture and mission profile are still in this trade space, the architecture and mission considered for this study is SAC21. In addition, reference conceptual designs are being refined for the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) and MSH systems which will enable crew to safely travel to and inhabit the surface of Mars. The NASA Mars architectures trade space includes the use of a Pressurized Rover (PR) to address both crew habitation and mobility needs. This study assesses the use of a dedicated habitat via the MSH and an unpressurized terrain vehicle for crew mobility and exploration in lieu of the PR. Determining the optimum mission architecture will require continued analysis by ESDMD teams and this study is intended to support of such a study. The MSH concept design team aims to explore this area of the Mars habitation trade space, and in doing so, inform and highlight the considerations associated with a MSH in the surface architecture. It is not the intention of this study to make specific habitation or architecture decisions, but instead to provide a habitation element concept compatible with the Mars architecture trade space.

Mars Surface Habitat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) Concept Design

An initial Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) concept design study was conducted as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Habitation Systems Development Office’s effort to inform NASA crewed Mars architecture decisions. The study assessed the unique challenges, risks, and benefits of a surface habitation element within the Mars architecture trade space. The goal of the study was to identify unique functional capabilities necessary to support a crewed mission on the Martian surface, the unique challenges and risks associated with such an architecture, and the areas of further analysis required to make such a mission possible. Continuing NASA’s development and execution of the Moon to Mars lunar surface missions, attention will continue progressing toward the initial crewed Mars mission. To prepare for this, NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD) has established a strategic analysis cycle (SAC) where an architectural trade space is identified and evaluated. Given that the Mars architecture and mission profile are still in this trade space, the architecture and mission considered for this study is SAC21. In addition, reference conceptual designs are being refined for the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) and MSH systems which will enable crew to safely travel to and inhabit the surface of Mars. The NASA Mars architectures trade space includes the use of a Pressurized Rover (PR) to address both crew habitation and mobility needs. This study assesses the use of a dedicated habitat via the MSH and an unpressurized terrain vehicle for crew mobility and exploration in lieu of the PR. Determining the optimum mission architecture will require continued analysis by ESDMD teams and this study is intended to support of such a study. The MSH concept design team aims to explore this area of the Mars habitation trade space, and in doing so, inform and highlight the considerations associated with a MSH in the surface architecture. It is not the intention of this study to make specific habitation or architecture decisions, but instead to provide a habitation element concept compatible with the Mars architecture trade space.

Ryan Hughes↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aerothermodynamic Flight Simulation Capabilities for Aerospace Vehicles

Aerothermodynamics, encompassing aerodynamics, aeroheating, and fluid dynamics and physical processes, is the genesis for the design and development of advanced space transportation vehicles and provides crucial information to other disciplines such as structures, materials, propulsion, avionics, and guidance, navigation and control. Sources of aerothermodynamic information are ground-based facilities, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and engineering computer codes, and flight experiments. Utilization of this aerothermodynamic triad provides the optimum aerothermodynamic design to safely satisfy mission requirements while reducing design conservatism, risk and cost. The iterative aerothermodynamic process for initial screening/assessment of aerospace vehicle concepts, optimization of aerolines to achieve/exceed mission requirements, and benchmark studies for final design and establishment of the flight data book are reviewed. Aerothermodynamic methodology centered on synergism between ground-based testing and CFD predictions is discussed for various flow regimes encountered by a vehicle entering the Earth s atmosphere from low Earth orbit. An overview of the resources/infrastructure required to provide accurate/creditable aerothermodynamic information in a timely manner is presented. Impacts on Langley s aerothermodynamic capabilities due to recent programmatic changes such as Center reorganization, downsizing, outsourcing, industry (as opposed to NASA) led programs, and so forth are discussed. Sample applications of these capabilities to high Agency priority, fast-paced programs such as Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV)/X-33 Phases I and 11, X-34, Hyper-X and X-38 are presented and lessons learned discussed. Lastly, enhancements in ground-based testing/CFD capabilities necessary to partially/fully satisfy future requirements are addressed.

Miller, Charles G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA DEVELOP Model of Community Science & Engagement: Localizing Earth Science Information

The NASA DEVELOP Program conducts 10 week feasibility studies that apply Earth observation data to address community priorities and support informed decision making. Part of NASA’s Earth Action Capacity Building Program, DEVELOP builds skills in both participants ( recent graduates, and early/transitioning career professionals), who work on small interdisciplinary project teams, and partner organizations (state and local governments, federal agencies, non profit and for profit organizations, universities, and international organizations) that work closely with DEVELOP to design the project. Projects address a wide variety of environmental issues, such as disaster risk and resilience, air pollution, and the impact of urban development, with a growing number of projects exploring how satellite data can help inform decision making around environmental injustices. A subset of DEVELOP partner organizations are local municipalities or community led non profits, with the co production model serving as an effective engagement tool and an introduction for communities to engage in Earth science research and become familiar with satellite remote sensing. This presentation will highlight the DEVELOP co production model, community project use cases, and lessons learned in partnering with local communities.

Michael Pazmino↗

NASA NTRS2011

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Massie, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Asynchronous Message Service Reference Implementation

This software provides a library of middleware functions with a simple application programming interface, enabling implementation of distributed applications in conformance with the CCSDS AMS (Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems Asynchronous Message Service) specification. The AMS service, and its protocols, implement an architectural concept under which the modules of mission systems may be designed as if they were to operate in isolation, each one producing and consuming mission information without explicit awareness of which other modules are currently operating. Communication relationships among such modules are self-configuring; this tends to minimize complexity in the development and operations of modular data systems. A system built on this model is a society of generally autonomous, inter-operating modules that may fluctuate freely over time in response to changing mission objectives, modules functional upgrades, and recovery from individual module failure. The purpose of AMS, then, is to reduce mission cost and risk by providing standard, reusable infrastructure for the exchange of information among data system modules in a manner that is simple to use, highly automated, flexible, robust, scalable, and efficient. The implementation is designed to spawn multiple threads of AMS functionality under the control of an AMS application program. These threads enable all members of an AMS-based, distributed application to discover one another in real time, subscribe to messages on specific topics, and to publish messages on specific topics. The query/reply (client/server) communication model is also supported. Message exchange is optionally subject to encryption (to support confidentiality) and authorization. Fault tolerance measures in the discovery protocol minimize the likelihood of overall application failure due to any single operational error anywhere in the system. The multi-threaded design simplifies processing while enabling application nodes to operate at high speeds; linked lists protected by mutex semaphores and condition variables are used for efficient, inter-thread communication. Applications may use a variety of transport protocols underlying AMS itself, including TCP (Transmission Control Protocol), UDP (User Datagram Protocol), and message queues.

Burleigh, Scott C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the ‘in-time’ aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance.

Young, Steven↗

NASA NTRS1997

Alternative Perspectives on Risk

The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of experience and responsibility in the situation. In our presentation we will consider several factors that may influence differences in risk perception, risk tolerance and risk management among the three major categories of participants in the aviation system (pilots, dispatchers, and controllers). Primary factors that may affect risk attitudes (the collective term we will use for the three components of risk) include: expertise or job-specific knowledge or training, personal involvement or vulnerability to consequences, goals, time horizon (imminence of consequences), span of control and type of control, and information or technology support. These will be considered in the context of five different types of risk (physical threat, economic, social, legal, and ethical). A study designed to study differences between pilots and controllers in their perceptions and responses to traffic risks under the present and a user-preferred control situation will be described. Future studies involving dispatchers' risk perceptions regarding various types of risk will be discussed.

Davison, Jeannie↗

NASA NTRS1999

NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program: Contamination Engineering Technology Development

ABSTRACT The return of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in 1990 brought a wealth of space exposure data on materials, paints, solar cells, etc. and data on the many space environments. The effects of the harsh space environments can provide damaging or even disabling effects on spacecraft, its materials, and its instruments. In partnership with industry, academia, and other government agencies, National Aeronautics & Space Administration's (NASA's) Space Environments & Effects (SEE) Program defines the space environments and provides technology development to accommodate or mitigate these harmful environments on the spacecraft. This program provides a very comprehensive and focused approach to understanding the space environment, to define the best techniques for both flight and ground-based experimentation, to update the models which predict both the environments and the environmental effects on spacecraft, and finally to ensure that this information is properly maintained and inserted into spacecraft design programs. This paper will describe the current SEE Program and will present SEE contamination engineering technology development and risk mitigation for future spacecraft design.

Pearson, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Turbomachine Sealing and Secondary Flows: Review of Rotordynamics Issues in Inherently Unsteady Flow Systems With Small Clearances - Part 2

Today's computational methods enable the determination of forces in complex systems, but without field validation data, or feedback, there is a high risk of failure when the design envelope is challenged. The data of Childs and Bently and field data reported in NASA Conference Proceedings serve as sources of design information for the development of these computational codes. Over time all turbomachines degrade and instabilities often develop, requiring responsible, accurate, turbomachine diagnostics with proper decisions to prevent failures. Tam et al. (numerical) and Bently and Muszynska (analytical) models corroborate and implicate that destabilizing factors are related through increases in the fluid-force average circumferential velocity. The stability threshold can be controlled by external swirl and swirl brakes and increases in radial fluid film stiffness (e.g., hydrostatic and ambient pressures) to enhance rotor stability. Also cited are drum rotor self-excited oscillations, where the classic fix is to add a split or severed damper ring or cylindrical damper drum, and the Benkert-Wachter work that engendered swirl brake concepts. For a smooth-operating, reliable, long-lived machine, designers must pay very close attention to sealing dynamics and diagnostic methods. Correcting the seals enabled the space shuttle main engine high-pressure fuel turbopump (SSME HPFTP) to operate successfully.

Hendricks, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

Ecosystems↗