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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

BioSecure Digital Twin: Manufacturing Innovation and Cybersecurity Resilience

U.S. national security, prosperity, economy, and well-being require secure, flexible, and resilient Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing. The COVID-19 pandemic reaffirmed that the biomedical production value-chain is vulnerable to disruption and has been under attack from sophisticated nation-state adversaries. Current cyber defenses are inadequate, and the integrity of critical production systems and processes are inherently vulnerable to cyber-attacks, human error, and supply chain disruptions. The following chapter explores how a BioSecure Digital Twin will improve U.S. manufacturing resilience and preparedness to respond to these hazards by significantly improving monitoring, integrity, security, and agility of our manufacturing infrastructure and systems. The BioSecure Digital Twin combines a scalable manufacturing framework with a robust platform for monitoring and control to increase U.S. biopharma manufacturing resilience. Then, the chapter discusses some of the inherent vulnerabilities and challenges at the nexus of health and advanced manufacturing. Next, the chapter highlights that as the Pandemic evolves, we need agility and resilience to overcome significant obstacles. This section highlights an innovative application of Cyber Informed Engineering to developing and deploying a BioSecure Digital Twin to improve the resilience and security of the biopharma industrial supply chain and production processes. Finally, the chapter concludes with a process framework to complement the Digital Twin platform, called the Biopharma (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) OODA Loop Framework (BOLF), a four-step approach to decision-making outputs from the Digital Twin. The BOLF will help end users leverage twin technology by distilling the available information, focusing the data on context, and rapidly making the best decision while remaining cognizant of changes that can be made as more data becomes available.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses

Climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle via increased evapotranspiration (ET). Changes in ET have important consequences for water-related ecosystem services as well as for forest productivity. Forests play a critical role in ET: active trees sequester carbon at the expense of losing water, yet if they are not active, water remains in the trees, but productivity stalls. Here, we estimated the capacity of forests to recover (resilience) from extreme water or productivity losses based on modeled ET through remote sensing methods across the conterminous USA. Results show there is a spatial tradeoff in resilience to water or productivity losses. Forests were more resilient to water loss in the drier west, and more resilient to productivity loss in the wetter east. Still, resilience was highly heterogeneous across the continent. Projections under climate change indicate both declines and increases of up to 13% in forest resilience, with broad regional trends but high spatial heterogeneity within regions. This study brings crucial satellite-based insights on how water dynamics, and consequentially productivity and water provision in forests, might be impacted by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient stellarator divertor characteristics in the Helically Symmetric eXperiment

Resilient divertor features connected to open chaotic edge structures in the Helically Symmetric eXperiment are investigated. For the first time, an expanded vessel wall was considered that would give space for implementation of a physical divertor target structure. The analysis was done for four different magnetic configurations with very different chaotic plasma edges. A resilient plasma wall interaction pattern was identified across all configurations. This manifests as qualitatively very similar footprint behavior across the different plasma equilibria. Overall, the resilient field lines of interest with high connection length L C lie within a helical band along the wall for all configurations. This resiliency can be used to identify the best location of a divertor. The details of the magnetic footprint’s resilient helical band is subject to specific field line structures which are linked to the penetration depth of field lines into the plasma and directly influence the heat and particle flux patterns. The differences arising from these details are characterized by introducing a new metric, the minimum radial connection min $(\delta_N)$ of a field line from the last closed flux surface. The relationship, namely the deviation from a scaling law, between min $(\delta_N)$ and L C of the field lines in the plasma edge field line behavior suggests that the field lines are associated with structures such as resonant islands, cantori, and turnstiles. This helps determine the relevant magnetic flux channels based on the radial location of these chaotic edge structures and the divertor target footprint. These details will need to be taken into account for resilient divertor design.

divertor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diaspora: Resilience-Enabling Services for Real-Time Distributed Workflows

The need for real-time processing to enable automated decision making and experimental steering has driven a shift from high-performance computing workflows on a centralized system to a distributed approach that integrates remote data sources, edge devices, and diverse compute facilities. Under this paradigm, data can be processed close to the source where it is generated, thus reducing latency and bandwidth usage. System resilience is thus a key challenge, requiring distributed workflows to survive component failures and to meet stringent quality-of-service requirements, which results in the need to mitigate anomalies such as congestion and low availability of resources. To address these challenges, we propose Diaspora, a unified resilience framework that is inspired by event-driven communication patterns used in public clouds. Specifically, we propose an event fabric that extends across sites, facilities, and computations to provide timely, reliable, and accurate information about data, application, and resource status. On top of the event fabric, we build resilience-enabling services that combine QoS-aware data streaming, resilient data views, resilient compute and data resources, and anomaly detection and prediction, all of which collectively enhance workflow resilience for these scientific cases.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models for Resilience Design Patterns

Resilience plays an important role in supercomputers by providing correct and efficient operation in case of faults, errors, and failures. Resilience design patterns offer blueprints for effectively applying resilience technologies. Prior work focused on developing initial efficiency and performance models for resilience design patterns. This paper extends it by (1) describing performance, reliability, and availability models for all structural resilience design patterns, (2) providing more detailed models that include flowcharts and state diagrams, and (3) introducing the Resilience Design Pattern Modeling (RDPM) tool that calculates and plots the performance, reliability, and availability metrics of individual patterns and pattern combinations.

Kumar, Mohit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilient Microgrid Scheduling Considering Multi-Level Load Priorities

In this paper, we propose a novel resilient microgrid scheduling model considering the multi-level load priorities. The resiliency of the microgrid is guaranteed by quickly adjusting the output of committed local resources and shedding the loads with low priorities when the power supply from the main grid is interrupted. Considering the uncertainty of renewable energy resources and loads as well as exchanged power at PCC, the probability of successful islanding (PSI) is used to quantify the resiliency of electricity supply for various loads with different priorities. Then, the multi-level priorities are enforced through chance constrains. Results of numerical simulation validate the proposed resilient scheduling model. In addition, the impacts of resiliency requirement of loads with high priority on the resiliency of loads with low priority are analyzed as well.

Liu, Guodong↗
DOE OSTI2024

HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded

High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.

Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking soil phosphorus with forest litterfall resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance: A pantropical meta-analysis

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m 2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m 2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m 2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of equitable resilience metrics into climate-informed electric utility planning processes: phase one

Working together, Sandia National Laboratories, Southern California Edison (SCE) - an Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) - and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are studying how electric utilities can use equity and resilience metrics to help inform the prioritization and sequencing of resilience-driven infrastructure investments. To this end, this project evaluated “Social Burden,” an equitable resilience metric which measures the potential impact of disruptions in access to non-electric critical services on people and estimates community resilience to these disruptions. The Social Burden was expanded to incorporate SCE’s existing equity metric and applied to evaluate the potential impacts from a range of climate-informed hypothetical outage scenarios developed under SCE’s 2022 Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment. One baseline (“blue-sky”) state and eight different outage scenarios were evaluated to measure the potential impacts of the outages on non-electric infrastructure, critical services, and people. Key findings include: 1) the Social Burden framework is flexible enough to adapt to and build upon existing utility equity and/or resilience metrics, 2) Social Burden results highlight the high degree of non-electric service redundancy within the SCE service area with most (6/8) hypothetical outage scenarios predicted to increase people’s Social Burden by less than 10%; however, 3) access to critical services and people’s ability to obtain them is unequal and spatially clustered, meaning that there are some hypothetical outage scenarios (2/8) that will exert a higher toll on communities directly experiencing the outage as well as some nearby communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities. The report concludes with recommendations for potential use cases of the expanded Social Burden metric and identifies priority follow-on work. Potential use cases may include incorporating equity into IOU’s prioritization of climate resilience investments. Additionally, Social Burden analysis may provide additional data and insights to augment grid planning, potentially by identifying additional needs and/or prioritizing previously identified needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Resilience efforts tend to reinforce injustices. Communities who experience disproportionate climate impacts are often excluded from resilience planning, and those plans do not typically address root causes of social vulnerability. More transformational approaches to resilience would shift decision-making power into communities and affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changing world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aims to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different municipalities navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, my empirical results will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings.

Callaham, Shannon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning. Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities. Regenerating the commons includes creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape community resilience decisions and experience related benefits. Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities or offices of community engagement. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings.

Callaham, Shannon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Resilience Modeling in Complex Engineered Systems with Human-Machine Interactions

In recent times, there has been a growing interest in resilience-based design. Resilience-based design operates on the concept that failures and unexpected events will happen, and when they occur, complex engineered systems should be able to operate within acceptable bounds and recover reasonably. Humans can contribute to the resilience of a system by quickly detecting unforeseen events and taking corrective measures. To this effect, researchers have proposed guidelines and design approaches that can help promote human-system resilience. However, there is no early design stage tool to validate if a system is indeed resilient after applying these guidelines and design methods. In this research, we integrate the Human Error and Functional Failure Reasoning (HEFFR) framework into the fmdtools toolkit to enable designers to model the combined (machine, human, and joint) failures, including their propagation and dynamic effects, during early design stages. This integrated tool also allows designers to model the effects of performance shaping factors, team dynamics, and human-machine interactions in systems of systems. A demonstrative example of a remotely operated rover is explored to demonstrate how this approach can be applied to understand resilience in complex engineered systems with human interactions.

Lukman Irshad↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Resiliency in Future Cislunar Space Architectures

Resiliency is an aspirational metric, and it is a common goal for complex systems – be they engineered space architectures, geopolitical networks, or the human immune system. However, despite the ubiquitous desire for resiliency, the concept is surprisingly difficult to define and apply to future planning efforts. We assert that resiliency can emerge from a layered approach of deliberately chosen capabilities with overlap and flexibility that, in aggregate, result in a resilient system. The challenge is to identify capabilities that contribute to resiliency and to accurately characterize their value. Resiliency is discussed through the lens of future architecture planning, outlining how the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) can benefit from a shift in approach when transitioning focus to the cislunar environment.

Jason Hay↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Master Planning for Resilient Public Communities—Best Practices from U.S. Military Installations

Until recently, most planners at military installations addressed energy systems for new facilities on an individual facility basis without consideration of community-wide goals relevant to energy sources, renewables, storage, or future energy generation needs. Building retrofits of public buildings typically do not address energy needs beyond the minimum code requirements making it difficult, if not impossible, to achieve community-level targets on a building-by-building basis. Planning on the basis of cost and general reliability may also fail to deliver community-level resilience. For example, many building code requirements focus on hardening to specific threats, but in a multi-building community, only a few of these buildings may be mission-critical. Over the past two decades, the frequency and duration of regional power outages and water utility disruptions from weather, man-made events, and aging infrastructure have increased. Major disruptions of electric and thermal energy have degraded critical mission capabilities and caused significant economic impacts. In 2016, the U.S. Department of Defense issued guidance that each Service (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines) complete comprehensive energy plans for the installations that consumed 75% of total building energy. Guidance was updated in 2017 to include metrics for energy resilience, and in some cases, water. This paper describes how community level quantitative and qualitative resilience analysis and metrics have been incorporated into community energy and water planning best practices for military installations in three geographically diverse locations. It is based on research performed under the International Energy Agency’s “Energy in Buildings and Communities Program Annex 73,” focusing on development of guidelines and tools that support the planning of Net Zero Energy Resilient Public Communities as well as research performed under the Department of Defense Environmental Security Technology Certification Program project EW18-D1- 5281, “Technologies Integration to Achieve Resilient, Low- Energy Military Installations.” The first case study reviews progress made on an energy and water planning study conducted at Fort Bliss, Texas. The second and third describes planning conducted at Fort Bragg, North Carolina and the Joint Region Marianas, Guam, respectively, under the updated guidance from 2017 regarding energy and water resilience. Analysis methods, key metrics, and key infrastructure and operational constraints are described, as well as technical, economic and business concepts used during the planning process.

Urban, Angela B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guided Resilience Self Assessment Application

Reliable electricity access is vital for everything from hospitals to national security. When grid disturbances occur, it is crucial to minimize the amount of time it takes to recover. Grid resiliency considers both the preparation for and recovery from high-impact low-frequency disturbances (HILF) such as weather events and cyber attacks. The Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) funds the multi-laboratory Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Control Launchpad (MIRACL) project to investigate technologies to support and grow distributed wind. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) contribute to resilience and cybersecurity efforts for the project, and have produced a resilience framework to evaluate system resilience based on individual system specifications. In order to make this framework easy for anyone to apply, I have coded a web application that allows users to input their power system qualities, goals, and perceived risks and then receive suggestions on how to improve their grid resiliency. The web application follows the seven steps in the planning stage of the framework process, allowing the user to input information about their grid and select from common goals, metrics, and hazards, as well as add their own. The application currently provides information about how to complete each step, requiring minimal prior knowledge of the framework. Future work for this application will include allowing the user to submit line drawings of their system and incorporate modeling tools so that the hazard simulations of applying the framework is completed for the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization in Climate Resilience Planning

Recent executive orders such as E.O. 14008 require federal agencies to address climate change by enhancing resilience and reducing emissions through decarbonization. Traditionally, federal agencies require their sites to develop preparedness plans, such as continuity of operations plans and/or more comprehensive resilience plans. When climate change is included in these plans, the focus tends to be on climate adaptation solutions such as hardening infrastructure and not on climate mitigation through decarbonization. However, with the ambitious emission reductions targets set out by the federal government, it is essential to provide resources and tools to support energy and water managers in achieving decarbonization goals. To achieve this, there is a need for decarbonization to be incorporated into existing resilience planning processes. We discuss a method of incorporating a decarbonization analysis into an existing resilience planning process to create a holistic framework that considers climate adaptation, climate mitigation, and risk reduction priorities when developing and prioritizing solutions for federal sites. Site managers and decision makers must be aware of potential opportunities and trade-offs in meeting energy and water performance goals, emission reductions goals, and climate adaptation goals when developing technological, operational, or institutional resilience solutions. By combining these processes, energy and water managers can minimize the additional level of effort to ensure that their sites are not only able to withstand climate-related energy and water disruptions, but also contribute to climate mitigation. A holistic approach can help federal agencies serve as a model for incorporating decarbonization strategies into site-level resilience planning for the rest of the nation.

Elliott, Douglas B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of grid outages. Working with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology and investment decision tool to: (1) identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities at the site level; (2) analyze risks to energy infrastructure; and (3) identify and prioritize energy resilience investments. This work improves on existing resilience assessment methodologies and tools by combining a bottom-up, all-hazards assessment methodology with top-down geographic information system mapping capabilities to provide an innovative, dynamic tool for identifying and prioritizing actionable solutions. This process combines probabilistic forecasting with an iterative approach for continuously updating and reassessing risks to address temporal dynamism. Relationships among systems are modeled and visualized to estimate the effectiveness of resilience actions across multiple interdependent systems and inform financial priorities through cost-difficulty-impact trade-offs. The approach is validated in a case study at Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, which experienced a Category 5 hurricane in 2018. The risks and mitigation strategies identified pre-hurricane are compared with post-hurricane, realized impacts. The assessment effectively identifies risks and actions to increase site energy resilience, but the methodology can be enhanced though greater consideration of the interdependencies between the energy system and related systems like transportation, communication, and food/water systems, which impact the recovery of the energy system and the base.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗