Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “reliability methodologies”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Status of NASA's Stirling space power converter program

An overview is presented of the NASA free-piston stirling space power converter technology program. The authors discuss Stirling experience in space and progress toward 1050 K and 1300 K Stirling space power converters. Fabrication is nearly completed for the 1050 K component test power converter (CTPC); results of motoring tests of the cold end (525 K), are presented. The success of these and future designs is dependent upon supporting research and technology efforts including heat pipes, bearings, superalloy joining technologies, high efficiency alternators, life and reliability testing and predictive methodologies. The authors provide an update of progress in some of these technologies.

Dudenhoefer, James E.↗

Effect of Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Loads on Fatigue Reliability in Polymer Matrix Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multi-factor interaction relationship developed at NASA Lewis Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability- based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)(sub s) graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Shah, A. R.↗

Sample-Efficient Adaptive Calibration of Quantum Networks Using Bayesian Optimization

All physical systems employed for quantum information tasks must act as unbiased carriers of encoded quantum states. Ensuring such indistinguishability of information carriers is a major challenge in many quantum information applications, including advanced quantum communication protocols. For photons, the workhorses of quantum communication networks, it is difficult to obtain and maintain their indistinguishability because of environment-induced transformations and loss imparted by communication channels, especially in noisy scenarios. Conventional strategies to mitigate these transformations often require hardware or software overhead that is restrictive (e.g., adding noise), infeasible (e.g., on a satellite), or time-consuming for deployed networks. In this work we propose and develop resource-efficient Bayesian optimization techniques to rapidly and adaptively calibrate the indistinguishability of individual photons for quantum networks using only information derived from their measurement. To experimentally validate our approach, we demonstrate the optimization of Hong-Ou-Mandel interference between two photons-a central task in quantum networking- finding rapid, efficient, and reliable convergence towards maximal photon indistinguishability in the presence of high loss and shot noise. We expect our resource-optimized and experimentally friendly methodology will allow fast and reliable calibration of indistinguishable quanta, a necessary task in distributed quantum computing, communications, and sensing, as well as for fundamental investigations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

Reliability-Based Design of Thermal Protection Systems with Support Vector Machines

The primary objective of this work was to develop a computationally efficient and accurate approach to reliability analysis of thermal protection systems using support vector machines. An adaptive sampling approach was introduced informs a iterative support vector machine approximation of the limit state function used for measuring reliability. The proposed sampling approach efficient adds samples along the limit state function until the reliability approximation is converged. This methodology is applied to two samples, mathematical functions to test and demonstrate the applicability. Then, the adaptive sampling-based support vector machine approach is applied to the reliability analysis of a thermal protection system. The results of all three problems highlight the potential capability of the new approach in terms of accuracy and computational saving in determining thermal protection system reliability.

White, Laura M.↗

Damage tolerance certification methodology for composite structures

An advanced certification methodology was developed for composite structures to include the effects of impact damage. The methodology has the capability to determine the reliability of impact damaged structure at any prescribed load level and impact threat, which may be specified in terms of impact energy or C-scan damage area. In addition, the methodology can also calculate the allowable impact threat level at a given applied load and specified reliability. The developed damage tolerance certification methodology was demonstrated on the F/A-18 inner wing. The results of the methodology demonstration showed that the F/A-18 inner wing has excellent damage tolerance capability.

Kan, Han Pin↗

Fatigue crack growth reliability by probabilistic finite elements

Fusion of the probabilistic finite-element method and reliability analysis for probabilistic fatigue-crack growth is presented. A comprehensive method for determining the probability of fatigue failure for mixed-mode cyclic loading is also presented. The loading is mixed-mode with randomness in the initial and final crack lengths, initial crack angle and position, material properties, crack-growth law, crack-direction law, and loading. The methodology consists of calculating the reliability index via an optimization procedure which is used to calculate the probability of fatigue failure. Performance of the methodology presented is demonstrated on a classical mode-I fatigue problem.

Besterfield, Glen H.↗

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Reliability Improvement: Case Study on a Self-healing Distribution System

In this work, we develop a methodology and tool to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of a self-healing system that considers practical distribution system features such as the distributed energy resources, microgrids, and service restoration strategies. Also, this paper addresses various practical issues when being applied to an actual Duke Energy distribution system, including the design of feasible and practical service restoration strategies that are used to identify the customer interruptions after a fault, and the incorporation of the utility’s historical reliability indices that are used to calibrate the failure rate and repair time of distribution system components such as overhead lines and underground cables. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dong, Jiaojiao↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Reliability Improvement: Case Study on a Self-healing Distribution System

In this work, we develop a methodology and tool to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of a self-healing system that considers practical distribution system features such as the distributed energy resources, microgrids, and service restoration strategies. Also, this paper addresses various practical issues when being applied to an actual Duke Energy distribution system, including the design of feasible and practical service restoration strategies that are used to identify the customer interruptions after a fault, and the incorporation of the utility's historical reliability indices that are used to calibrate the failure rate and repair time of distribution system components such as overhead lines and underground cables. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dong, Jiaojiao↗

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

Hierarchical specification of the SIFT fault tolerant flight control system

The specification and mechanical verification of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) flight control system is described. The methodology employed in the verification effort is discussed, and a description of the hierarchical models of the SIFT system is given. To meet the objective of NASA for the reliability of safety critical flight control systems, the SIFT computer must achieve a reliability well beyond the levels at which reliability can be actually measured. The methodology employed to demonstrate rigorously that the SIFT computer meets as reliability requirements is described. The hierarchy of design specifications from very abstract descriptions of system function down to the actual implementation is explained. The most abstract design specifications can be used to verify that the system functions correctly and with the desired reliability since almost all details of the realization were abstracted out. A succession of lower level models refine these specifications to the level of the actual implementation, and can be used to demonstrate that the implementation has the properties claimed of the abstract design specifications.

Melliar-Smith, P. M.↗

Towards Robust Designs Via Multiple-Objective Optimization Methods

Fabricating and operating complex systems involves dealing with uncertainty in the relevant variables. In the case of aircraft, flow conditions are subject to change during operation. Efficiency and engine noise may be different from the expected values because of manufacturing tolerances and normal wear and tear. Engine components may have a shorter life than expected because of manufacturing tolerances. In spite of the important effect of operating- and manufacturing-uncertainty on the performance and expected life of the component or system, traditional aerodynamic shape optimization has focused on obtaining the best design given a set of deterministic flow conditions. Clearly it is important to both maintain near-optimal performance levels at off-design operating conditions, and, ensure that performance does not degrade appreciably when the component shape differs from the optimal shape due to manufacturing tolerances and normal wear and tear. These requirements naturally lead to the idea of robust optimal design wherein the concept of robustness to various perturbations is built into the design optimization procedure. The basic ideas involved in robust optimal design will be included in this lecture. The imposition of the additional requirement of robustness results in a multiple-objective optimization problem requiring appropriate solution procedures. Typically the costs associated with multiple-objective optimization are substantial. Therefore efficient multiple-objective optimization procedures are crucial to the rapid deployment of the principles of robust design in industry. Hence the companion set of lecture notes (Single- and Multiple-Objective Optimization with Differential Evolution and Neural Networks ) deals with methodology for solving multiple-objective Optimization problems efficiently, reliably and with little user intervention. Applications of the methodologies presented in the companion lecture to robust design will be included here. The evolutionary method (DE) is first used to solve a relatively difficult problem in extended surface heat transfer wherein optimal fin geometries are obtained for different safe operating base temperatures. The objective of maximizing the safe operating base temperature range is in direct conflict with the objective of maximizing fin heat transfer. This problem is a good example of achieving robustness in the context of changing operating conditions. The evolutionary method is then used to design a turbine airfoil; the two objectives being reduced sensitivity of the pressure distribution to small changes in the airfoil shape and the maximization of the trailing edge wedge angle with the consequent increase in airfoil thickness and strength. This is a relevant example of achieving robustness to manufacturing tolerances and wear and tear in the presence of other objectives.

Man Mohan, Rai↗

(abstract) Designing for Small Volume Assembly of Advanced Electronics Packages

There is a need for high reliability surface mount assembly processes for aerospace, military, and medical applications. This approach for improving design for producibility and reliability of electronic system assembly processes can be utilized as a starting framework. Described herein is a general methodology to Design for Producibility and Reliability (DFPAR) for very small volume production runs.

assembly processes↗

Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Human Space Exploration Missions

NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to trans-destination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

Cates, Grant↗

Evaluation of a GCM cirrus parameterization using satellite observations

This study applies a simple yet effective methodology to validate a general circulation model parameterization of cirrus ice water path. The methodology combines large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields from operational analyses with prescribed occurrence of cirrus clouds from satellite observations to simulate a global distribution of ice water path. The predicted cloud properties are then compared with the corresponding satellite measurements of visible optical depth and infrared cloud emissivity to evaluate the reliability of the parameterization. This methodology enables the validation to focus strictly on the water loading side of the parameterization by eliminating uncertainties involved in predicting the occurrence of cirrus internally within the parameterization. Overall the parameterization performs remarkably well in capturing the observed spatial patterns of cirrus optical properties. Spatial correlations between the observed and the predicted optical depths are typically greater than 0.7 for the tropics and northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The good spatial agreement largely stems from the strong dependence of the ice water path upon the temperature of the environment in which the clouds form. Poorer correlations (r approximately 0.3) are noted over the southern hemisphere midlatitudes, suggesting that additional processes not accounted for by the parameterization may be important there. Quantitative evaluation of the parameterization is hindered by the present uncertainty in the size distribution of cirrus ice particles. Consequently, it is difficult to determine if discrepancies between the observed and the predicted optical properties are attributable to errors in the parameterized ice water path or to geographic variations in effective radii.

Soden, B. J.↗