Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “range prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A study on the impact of using a subchannel resolution for modeling of large break loss of coolant accidents

The nuclear industry is investigating the feasibility of transitioning from 18- to 24-month fuel cycles because of the positive impact it would have on the operational costs for the current fleet of light-water reactors. A challenge to making this change is the increased risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) due to the known potential for ceramic fuel to pulverize into fine particles at the higher discharge burnups. Previous work has been performed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to assess FFRD risk in high-burnup cores using the BISON fuel performance code and a coarse mesh thermal hydraulics (T/H) solution for a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) using the TRACE system T/H code. Because of the importance of the T/H solution for FFRD assessment, this study seeks to investigate the impact of using higher-fidelity subchannel techniques for modeling of the LOCA transient. CTF was used to model a subregion of a high-burnup core that was depleted by the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) multiphysics core simulator. Both coarse-mesh and pin-resolved models were created in CTF, and a consistent coarse-mesh TRACE model was also developed to allow for benchmarking the code results. Further, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) reflood transient was simulated using these three models, and results were compared. Results showed some consistent differences between the CTF and TRACE coarse models, including a higher peak cladding temperature (PCT) prediction in CTF and later quenching in CTF; however, the transient clad temperature behavior was similar, and these differences are likely due to post-critical heat flux heat transfer modeling differences and minimum film boiling temperature model differences. The pin-resolved results indicate that the PCT in the lumped model is often under-predicted by as much as 70 °C and that PCT occurs at a different location than the high-power pin in the assembly. The lumped model predicts a difference of 10 °C or less between the average and hot pins in the assembly, whereas the pin-resolved model predicts a range of over 100 °C. These results indicate that higher-fidelity T/H results may have an impact on predicted core behavior during LOCA, which may be important to consider when assessing FFRD risk.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Simulating the Diffusion of Hydrogen in Amorphous Silicates: A ‘Jumping’ Migration Process and its Implications for Solar Wind Implanted Lunar Volatiles

We use molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to better explain the movement of atomic hydrogen in amorphous silica and quantify the planetary science implications of these findings. Previous MD simulations had a large range of predicted values and did not agree well with experiment. Our simulations sample atomic motion for a longer duration and consider a wider range of temperatures than previous simulations. In contrast to constant atomic motion, the hydrogen atoms were shown to undergo random intermittent jumps from one oxygen atom to another, the number of which increase with temperature. Predicted diffusion coefficients had a better agreement to experimental values than previous MD simulations, suggesting the importance of longer simulation durations for better statistics. The low activation energy and jumps observed at lunar temperatures do not support the theory of diurnal variations in OH content for an undamaged amorphous silica surface. Instead, we conclude that energetic solar wind impacts can induce two competing atomic hydrogen motion processes in the exposed surface: A prompt effect that induces jumps in the temperature spike volume, but also a long term effect of damage in the structure that traps atomic hydrogen. We then use SDTrimSP to quantify the damage created during exposure and MD to demonstrate the H retention and trapping near these defects. Damage was shown to be dependent on impact energy, with defects easily retaining implanted hydrogen. MD results like those presented herein on unweathered surfaces are therefore most relevant to magnetic anomalies. As a result, we demonstrate the importance of lunar volatile models to account for the damage state of the substrate when modelling hydrogen diffusion, retention, and subsequent OH/water production.

Liam S. Morrissey↗
NASA NTRS1991

Geoscience Laser Ranging System design and performance predictions

The Geoscience Laser System (GLRS) will be a high-precision distance-measuring instrument planned for deployment on the EOS-B platform. Its primary objectives are to perform ranging measurements to ground targets to monitor crustal deformation and tectonic plate motions, and nadir-looking altimetry to determine ice sheet thicknesses, surface topography, and vertical profiles of clouds and aerosols. The system uses a mode-locked, 3-color Nd:YAG laser source, a Microchannel Plate-PMT for absolute time-of-flight (TOF) measurement (at 532 nm), a streak camera for TOF 2-color dispersion measurement (532 nm and 355 nm), and a Si avalanche photodiode for altimeter waveform detection (1064 nm). The performance goals are to make ranging measurements to ground targets with about 1 cm accuracy, and altimetry height measurements over ice with 10 cm accuracy. This paper presents an overview of the design concept developed during a phase B study. System engineering issues and trade studies are discussed, with particular attention to error budgets and performance predictions.

Anderson, Kent L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive model using artificial neural network to design phase change material-based ocean thermal energy harvesting systems for powering uncrewed underwater vehicles

Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are a major beneficiary of the phase change material (PCM)-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology for their mission needs. However, this technology relies on different parameters and energy conversion steps that could be critical to the general energy generation efficiency. Sea trials showed that the design performed lower than their laboratory design specifications. This underperformance results from different factors, mainly the UUV’s trajectory, travel time, underwater ocean currents, temperature fluctuations, and biofouling on the heat exchanger due to long term underwater operations. Therefore, there exists a need to continuously monitor the ambient energy harvesting system and predict system performance, for mission planning purposes. Two major parameters influencing the energy harvesting system include the final pressure inside the hydraulic energy storage vessel or accumulator, and the electrical load value. Here, this work focuses on the hydraulic to electric energy conversion system. Therefore, a combination of numerical model and experimental testing is used to develop a predictive model using artificial neural network using MATLAB. After validation with experimental testing, 1000 data samples obtained from the numerical model are used to train the ANN. Compared to the experimental results, the developed ANN model can predict in less than a second the designed benchtop system’s total efficiency with less than 15 percent maximum error range. This predictive model development represents a cost-effective way for optimization and a computational energy efficient mode aboard UUVs for mission planning for deployed UUVs using PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of Ocean Reflected GPS Signals: Theory and Experiment

A number of advanced applications of the Global Positioning System (GPS) have been proposed which use the signal reflected from a smooth ocean surface. The viability of these concepts hinges upon the ability to acquire and code track the reflected signal for an extended period of time over a variety of sea states. The analytical theory of specularly and diffusely reflected radio frequency radiation from a rough surface is reviewed. Experiments to demonstrate tracking of a reflected signal were performed on three aircraft flights over the Chesapeake Bay and the Eastern Shore of Virginia. The experimental hardware consisted of two of-the-shelf receivers configured so that one received the GPS signal in the conventional manner using a right hand circularly polarized (RHCP) antenna on top of the fuselage and the other could receive the reflected signal using a left hand circularly polarized (LHCP) antenna on the bottom of the fuselage. Three tests were performed on the data to verify that the signals received in the bottom antenna were viewed as sea surface reflections; Pseudorange double differences were compared against predicted geometric range double differences; Characteristics of a signal reflected from a random surface were observed in the carrier to noise ratio; Predicted specular points were plotted which demonstrate reflection only from wet areas. These tests indicated tracking of reflected signals for extended periods of time at altitudes of up to 5500 m and sporadic signal acquisition at higher altitudes. The duration of the continuous signal tracking was limited by the receiver's need to maintain carrier tracking.

Garrison, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

Strahan, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting the Redshift 2 H-Alpha Luminosity Function Using [OIII] Emission Line Galaxies

Upcoming space-based surveys such as Euclid and WFIRST-AFTA plan to measure Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAOs) in order to study dark energy. These surveys will use IR slitless grism spectroscopy to measure redshifts of a large number of galaxies over a significant redshift range. In this paper, we use the WFC3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallel Survey (WISP) to estimate the expected number of H-alpha emitters observable by these future surveys. WISP is an ongoing Hubble Space Telescope slitless spectroscopic survey, covering the 0.8 - 1.65 micrometers wavelength range and allowing the detection of H-alpha emitters up to z approximately equal to 1.5 and [OIII] emitters to z approximately equal to 2.3. We derive the H-alpha-[OIII] bivariate line luminosity function for WISP galaxies at z approximately equal to 1 using a maximum likelihood estimator that properly accounts for uncertainties in line luminosity measurement, and demonstrate how it can be used to derive the H-alpha luminosity function from exclusively fitting [OIII] data. Using the z approximately equal to 2 [OIII] line luminosity function, and assuming that the relation between H-alpha and [OIII] luminosity does not change significantly over the redshift range, we predict the H-alpha number counts at z approximately equal to 2 - the upper end of the redshift range of interest for the future surveys. For the redshift range 0.7 less than z less than 2, we expect approximately 3000 galaxies per sq deg for a flux limit of 3 x 10(exp −16) ergs per sec per sq cm (the proposed depth of Euclid galaxy redshift survey) and approximately 20,000 galaxies per sq deg for a flux limit of approximately 10(exp −16) ergs per sec per sq cm (the baseline depth of WFIRST galaxy redshift survey).

Redshift↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based prediction of enzyme substrate scope: Application to bacterial nitrilases

Predicting the range of substrates accepted by an enzyme from its amino acid sequence is challenging. Although sequenc- and structure-based annotation approaches are often accurate for predicting broad categories of substrate specificity, they generally cannot predict which specific molecules will be accepted as substrates for a given enzyme, particularly within a class of closely related molecules. Combining targeted experimental activity data with structural modeling, ligand docking, and physicochemical properties of proteins and ligands with various machine learning models provides complementary information that can lead to accurate predictions of substrate scope for related enzymes. Here we describe such an approach that can predict the substrate scope of bacterial nitrilases, which catalyze the hydrolysis of nitrile compounds to the corresponding carboxylic acids and ammonia. Each of the four machine learning models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and support vector machines) performed similarly (average ROC = 0.9, average accuracy = ~82%) for predicting substrate scope for this dataset, although random forest offers some advantages. Finally, this approach is intended to be highly modular with respect to physicochemical property calculations and software used for structural modeling and docking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Neptune radio emission - Predictions based on planetary scaling laws

In this paper a prediction is advanced concerning Neptune's low-frequency radio emission based on the radiometric Bode's law for radio planets in combination with the magnetostrophic scaling law for magnetized planets. The total emitted radio power is predicted to be about 1.6 x 10 to the 7th W, very nearly the same as that predicted and observed for Uranus. Possible emission spectral shapes, based on Saturn and earth-like models, are shown. Using these models, the radio emission frequency range is predicted to extend from approximately 100 to just over 1000 kHz, with a spectral peak between 350 and 500 kHz. If radiation is beamed approximately in the sunward direction, Neptune should be detectable by the planetary radio astronomy experiment onboard the Voyager spacecraft sometime between 45 and 90 days before closest approach. This detection is likely to represent the first direct evidence of a Neptune magnetic field. Possible implications for Neptune's magnetosphere with regard to the time of first detection are discussed.

Desch, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Hybrid Decompositional Verification for Discovering Failures in Adaptive Flight Control Systems

Adaptive flight control systems hold tremendous promise for maintaining the safety of a damaged aircraft and its passengers. However, most currently proposed adaptive control methodologies rely on online learning neural networks (OLNNs), which necessarily have the property that the controller is changing during the flight. These changes tend to be highly nonlinear, and difficult or impossible to analyze using standard techniques. In this paper, we approach the problem with a variant of compositional verification. The overall system is broken into components. Undesirable behavior is fed backwards through the system. Components which can be solved using formal methods techniques explicitly for the ranges of safe and unsafe input bounds are treated as white box components. The remaining black box components are analyzed with heuristic techniques that try to predict a range of component inputs that may lead to unsafe behavior. The composition of these component inputs throughout the system leads to overall system test vectors that may elucidate the undesirable behavior

Thompson, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS2000

45 Km Horizontal Path Optical Link Experiment

Mountain-top to mountain-top optical link experiments have been initiated at JPL, in order to perform a systems level evaluation of optical communications. Progress made so far is reported. ne NASA, JPL developed optical communications demonstrator (OCD) is used to transmit a laser signal from Strawberry Peak (SP), located in the San Bernadino mountains of California. This laser beam is received by a 0.6 m aperture telescope at JPL's Table Mountain Facility (TMF), located in Wrightwood, California. The optical link is bi-directional with the TMF telescope transmitting a continuous 4-wave (cw) 780 run beacon and the OCD sending back a 840 nm, 100 - 500 Mbps pseudo noise (PN) modulated, laser beam. The optical link path is at an average altitude of 2 km above sea level, covers a range of 46.8 km and provides an atmospheric channel equivalent to approx. 4 air masses. Average received power measured at either end fall well within the uncertainties predicted by link analysis. The reduction in normalized intensity variance (sigma(sup 2, sub I)) for the 4-beam beacon, compared to each individual beam, at SP, was from approx. 0.68 to 0.22. With some allowance for intra-beam mis-alignment, this is consistent with incoherent averaging. The sigma(sup2, sub I) measured at TMF approx. 0.43 +/- 0.22 exceeded the expected aperture averaged value of less than 0.1, probably because of beam wander. The focused spot sizes of approx. 162 +/- 6 microns at the TMF Coude and approx. 64 +/- 3 microns on the OCD compare to the predicted size range of 52 - 172 microns and 57 - 93 microns, respectively. This is consistent with 4 - 5 arcsec of atmospheric "seeing". The preliminary evaluation of OCD's fine tracking indicates that the uncompensated tracking error is approx. 3.3 micro rad compared to approx. 1.7 micro rad observed in the laboratory. Fine tracking performance was intermittent, primarily due to beacon fades on the OCD tracking sensor. The best bit error rates observed while tracking worked were 1E-5 to 1E-6.

Biswas, A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Predicting lettuce canopy photosynthesis with statistical and neural network models

An artificial neural network (NN) and a statistical regression model were developed to predict canopy photosynthetic rates (Pn) for 'Waldman's Green' leaf lettuce (Latuca sativa L.). All data used to develop and test the models were collected for crop stands grown hydroponically and under controlled-environment conditions. In the NN and regression models, canopy Pn was predicted as a function of three independent variables: shootzone CO2 concentration (600 to 1500 micromoles mol-1), photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) (600 to 1100 micromoles m-2 s-1), and canopy age (10 to 20 days after planting). The models were used to determine the combinations of CO2 and PPF setpoints required each day to maintain maximum canopy Pn. The statistical model (a third-order polynomial) predicted Pn more accurately than the simple NN (a three-layer, fully connected net). Over an 11-day validation period, average percent difference between predicted and actual Pn was 12.3% and 24.6% for the statistical and NN models, respectively. Both models lost considerable accuracy when used to determine relatively long-range Pn predictions (> or = 6 days into the future).

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

Closing in on Hydrologic Predictive Accuracy: Combining the Strengths of High-Fidelity and Physics-Agnostic Models

Applications of process-based models (PBM) for predictions are confounded by multiple uncertainties and computational burdens, resulting in appreciable errors. A novel modeling framework combining a high-fidelity PBM with surrogate and machine learning (ML) models is developed to tackle these challenges and applied for streamflow prediction. A surrogate model permits high computational efficiency of a PBM solution at a minimum loss of its accuracy. A novel probabilistic ML model partitions the PBM-surrogate prediction errors into reducible and irreducible types, quantifying their distributions that arise due to both explicitly perceived uncertainties (such as parametric) or those that are entirely hidden to the modeler (not included or unexpected). Using this approach, we demonstrate a substantial improvement of streamflow predictive accuracy for a case study urbanized watershed. Such a framework provides an efficient solution combining the strengths of high-fidelity and physics-agnostic models for a wide range of prediction problems in geosciences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Electrochemical carbon dioxide concentrator: Math model

A steady state computer simulation model of an Electrochemical Depolarized Carbon Dioxide Concentrator (EDC) has been developed. The mathematical model combines EDC heat and mass balance equations with empirical correlations derived from experimental data to describe EDC performance as a function of the operating parameters involved. The model is capable of accurately predicting performance over EDC operating ranges. Model simulation results agree with the experimental data obtained over the prediction range.

Marshall, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Planetary scaling laws and predictions for Neptune

This paper offers a prediction concerning Neptune's low-frequency radio emission based on the radiometric Bode's law in combination with a recent prediction for Neptune's global magnetic field strength. The latter is based on a dynamo scaling relation derived from the magnetospheric balance condition within planetary cores. The radio emission frequency range is predicted to extend from approximately 100 to 1000 kHz, with a spectral peak between 350 and 500 kHz. A crude estimate of the emission spectral shape, based on Saturn and earth-like models, is shown. If radiation is beamed approximately in the sunward direction, Neptune should be detectable by the Planetary Radio Astronomy experiment onboard the Voyager spacecraft sometime between 45 and 60 days before closest approach.

Desch, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1961

Some Recent Studies in Structural Dynamics of Rotor Aircraft

This paper presents a summary of four recent studies relating to the structural-dynamics problems of rotor-powered aircraft. The first study concerns the measurement by means of dynamic models of the forces and moments at the hubs of various rotor configurations. The results of this study show that the periodic components of the forces and moments are highly dependent on both the rotor configuration and the flight condition. The second study treats the problem of resonance amplifications of rotor-blade stress and shows that by using multiple flapping hinges or flex-joints it is possible to control the natural frequencies of the rotor blade so that conditions of resonance between the frequencies of the aerodynamic input forces and the natural frequencies of the lower blade modes are avoided for all rotor speeds. Two studies of the stability of rotor aircraft axe also discussed. One of these involves the mechanical instability or ground resonance of rotorcraft wherein the rotor support in each of two mutually perpendicular directions in the rotor plane is represented as a multiple-degree-of-freedom system in contrast to the system having a "single" degree of freedom normally used in helicopter analysis. The consideration of the rotor support system as a two-degree-of-freedom system predicts additional unstable ranges of rotor speed not predicted by former analyses. The other instability treated is propeller whirl for which the significant motions are the pitching and yawing motions of the propeller disk which are coupled together by gyroscopic forces. The effect of the significant variables on the instability is presented and shows that the speed at which the instability occurs can be increased by increasing the relative stiffness of the propeller in the pitch and yaw directions or by increasing the effective structural damping of the nacelle.

George W Brooks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of late-time neutrino emission on the diffuse supernova neutrino background

In the absence of high-statistics supernova neutrino measurements, estimates of the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) hinge on the precision of simulations of core-collapse supernovae. Understanding the cooling phase of protoneutron star (PNS) evolution (≳ 1 s after core bounce) is crucial, since approximately 50% of the energy liberated by neutrinos is emitted during the cooling phase. We model the cooling phase with a hybrid method by combining the neutrino emission predicted by 3D hydrodynamic simulations with several cooling-phase estimates, including a novel two-parameter correlation depending on the final baryonic PNS mass and the time of shock revival. We find that the predicted DSNB event rate at Super-Kamiokande can vary by a factor of ~2–3 depending on the cooling-phase treatment. Here we also find that except for one cooling estimate, the range in predicted DSNB events is largely driven by the uncertainty in the neutrino mean energy. With a good understanding of the late-time neutrino emission, more precise DSNB estimates can be made for the next generation of DSNB searches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1971

Propellant thermal stratification

The term thermal stratification is used to express nonuniform heat distribution within the bulk propellant. The nonuniform distribution of heat results in significant temperature variations in booster propulsion propellants and causes an undesirable increase in the self-pressurization rate of cryogen storage systems. A semiempirical prediction method has been developed for high gravity environments and is adequate for design purposes; model accuracy is somewhat limited to similarity in tank geometries, and additional work is needed to extend the correlation range. Several low gravity environment models that cover a broad range of predicted results have been developed. There are no applicable data by which any of these models may be selected in preference over the others.

Winstead, T. W.↗