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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1997

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Mog, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Implementation of risk-informed design allows the design team to thoroughly explore the risks of a system while iterating the operations concept, design, and requirements until the system meets mission objects and is achievable within constraints. To arrive at a space system design that is likely to meet all constraints placed upon mass, cost, performance and risk, the system requirements must be understood and traded against each other as early as the conceptual design phase. Depending on the project phase and the goals of the risk analysis, various PRA methodologies could be used to produce quantitative risk estimates to enable such a process. In order to better understand the applicability, advantages, and limitations of various PRA methodologies, a comparative analysis of three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches was performed. The three methods examined are a traditional static fault tree, a fault tree hybrid, and a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation. Each approach was used to assess a generic reaction control system (RCS) thruster pod and mission. The methods are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to the different phases of system development.

Probablistic↗

NASA NTRS2003

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Computer systems design↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Role of Analysis and Testing in the Service Life Assessment of Ion Engines

Experience from tests and flights and engineering analysis represent the two sources of information on which to base conclusions on the reliability or failure risk of aerospace flight systems. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace flight systems or components. The limitations of testing in evaluating failure risk are discussed and an alternate statistical approach which relies on both test experience and analysis to quantitatively assess reliability is outlined. The implementation of this methodology in the service life assessment of ion thrusters is discussed and examples of failure modes being addressed in the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program are given.

Ion↗

NASA NTRS2009

Ares I Static Tests Design

Probabilistic engineering design enhances safety and reduces costs by incorporating risk assessment directly into the design process. In this paper, we assess the format of the quantitative metrics for the vehicle which will replace the Space Shuttle, the Ares I rocket. Specifically, we address the metrics for in-flight measurement error in the vector position of the motor nozzle, dictated by limits on guidance, navigation, and control systems. Analyses include the propagation of error from measured to derived parameters, the time-series of dwell points for the duty cycle during static tests, and commanded versus achieved yaw angle during tests. Based on these analyses, we recommend a probabilistic template for specifying the maximum error in angular displacement and radial offset for the nozzle-position vector. Criteria for evaluating individual tests and risky decisions also are developed.

Carson, William↗

NASA NTRS2008

QuikSCAT follow - on concept study

Global, real-time observations of the speed and direction of winds over the oceans ocean surface vector winds [OSVW]) are high priority measurements for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) weather forecasting, prediction, and hazard warning communities. At present, these data are provided by the experimental National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite sensor, which is operating well beyond its design lifetime. To continue to meet the Nation’s need for operational OSVW observations beyond QuikSCAT, NOAA tasked the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to design and provide costs for a set of QuikSCAT Follow-On mission options. Three scenarios were examined: 1) a QuikSCAT Replacement mission with capabilities commensurate to QuikSCAT, 2) a next-generation Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM), as recommended in the National Research Council’s decadal survey to provide significantly improved all-weather, allwind, high spatial resolution measurements, and 3) an XOVWM Constellation consisting of two XOVWM observatories to provide improved temporal resolution. In parallel, NOAA asked its users to provide a quantitative assessment of each option’s benefit to NOAA. This report presents the JPL design, risk assessment, and cost for each of three options, together with a summary of the NOAA users’ benefit assessment. The report concludes that though all options are technically feasible for immediate implementation and have a risk posture consistent with a NOAA operational mission, the XOVWM options provide significant observational benefits. While a QuikSCAT Replacement option would continue current operational measurement capabilities, there is a strong and clearly defined operational need for improved capabilities in high winds (e.g., hurricanes or extra-tropical cyclones), heavy precipitation, and near coasts to enable significantly improved severe storm and coastal hazard forecasts, which are provided only by the XOVWM options.

Rodriquez, Ernesto↗

DOE OSTI2022

From Qualitative to Quantitative AOP: A Case Study of Neurodegeneration

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) include a sequence of events that connect a molecular-level initiating event with an adverse outcome at the cellular level for human health endpoints, or at the population level for ecological endpoints. When there is enough quantitative understanding of the relationships between key events in an AOP, a mathematical model may be developed to connect key events in a quantitative AOP (qAOP). Ideally, a qAOP will reduce the time and resources spent for chemical toxicity testing and risk assessment and enable the extrapolation of data collected at the molecular-level by in vitro assays, for example, to predict whether an adverse outcome may occur. Here, we review AOPs in the AOPWiki, an AOP repository, to determine best practices that would facilitate conversion from AOP to qAOP. Then, focusing on a particular case study, acetylcholinesterase inhibition leading to neurodegeneration, we describe specific methods and challenges. Examples of challenges include the availability and collection of quantitative data amenable to model development, the lack of studies that measure multiple key events, and model accessibility or transferability across platforms. We conclude with recommendations for improving key event and key event relationship descriptions in the AOPWiki that facilitate the transition of qualitative AOPs to qAOPs.

Sinitsyn, Dennis↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

Abstract Under global warming, dry and hot events have been increasing in recent decades and are projected to increase in the future across global land areas. The impacts of compound dry and hot events may lead to increased stress to the natural and human systems than separate dry or hot events. Thus, quantitative assessments of global land areas affected by these compound events are needed to understand their risks. This study focuses on the variation in global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events for both historical and future periods using observations from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Based on historical observations and simulations, a substantial increase in the spatial extent of these compound events was detected, especially since the 1980s. Climate model projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveal that both global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events will increase to approximately 1.7–1.8 times by the end of the 21st century. Based on different thresholds of compound events, the spatial extent of global land areas during the June–July–August (December–January–February) season will increase by 12.38–17.20% (7.83–11.19%) in 2050–2099 relative to that in 1950–1999, and the spatial extent of global cropland areas will increase by 14.69–19.63% (9.60–14.48%). The increase in areas affected by compound dry and hot events may lead to more losses in different sectors in the future and more efforts are needed to cope with their potential impacts.

Wu, Xinying↗

NASA NTRS2000

Advanced imaging of the macrostructure and microstructure of bone

Noninvasive and/or nondestructive techniques are capable of providing more macro- or microstructural information about bone than standard bone densitometry. Although the latter provides important information about osteoporotic fracture risk, numerous studies indicate that bone strength is only partially explained by bone mineral density. Quantitative assessment of macro- and microstructural features may improve our ability to estimate bone strength. The methods available for quantitatively assessing macrostructure include (besides conventional radiographs) quantitative computed tomography (QCT) and volumetric quantitative computed tomography (vQCT). Methods for assessing microstructure of trabecular bone noninvasively and/or nondestructively include high-resolution computed tomography (hrCT), micro-computed tomography (muCT), high-resolution magnetic resonance (hrMR), and micromagnetic resonance (muMR). vQCT, hrCT and hrMR are generally applicable in vivo; muCT and muMR are principally applicable in vitro. Although considerable progress has been made in the noninvasive and/or nondestructive imaging of the macro- and microstructure of bone, considerable challenges and dilemmas remain. From a technical perspective, the balance between spatial resolution versus sampling size, or between signal-to-noise versus radiation dose or acquisition time, needs further consideration, as do the trade-offs between the complexity and expense of equipment and the availability and accessibility of the methods. The relative merits of in vitro imaging and its ultrahigh resolution but invasiveness versus those of in vivo imaging and its modest resolution but noninvasiveness also deserve careful attention. From a clinical perspective, the challenges for bone imaging include balancing the relative advantages of simple bone densitometry against the more complex architectural features of bone or, similarly, the deeper research requirements against the broader clinical needs. The considerable potential biological differences between the peripheral appendicular skeleton and the central axial skeleton have to be addressed further. Finally, the relative merits of these sophisticated imaging techniques have to be weighed with respect to their applications as diagnostic procedures requiring high accuracy or reliability on one hand and their monitoring applications requiring high precision or reproducibility on the other. Copyright 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

NASA NTRS2022

Treatment of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Stability Margin Reductions for Crewed Missions with Emphasis on Slosh Dynamics

NESC’s perspective for crewed spaceflight: Acceptance of flight control gain/phase stability margin reductions from industry standards should be accompanied by an adequately extensive technical treatment, including: •Analyzing the fundamental physics involved, with applicable simulation tool verification (particularly if results are dissimilar among rules of thumb, linear tools, nonlinear analysis, and flight data) •Conducting sensitivity studies in time and frequency domains to analyze effects of possible parameter and system variations •Studying the effects of the consequence of instability associated with offending modes by running stressing cases in time domain •Assessing alternative flight control designs to demonstrate that present design appropriately balances overall vehicle risk (i.e., quantitatively delineate chosen tradeoffs between various stability margins and vehicle performance in the context of risk/consequence) Work presented here represents an example summary of expected engineering work to flight-certify crewed missions with unstable slosh modes and reduced stability margins

Launch Vehicle Flight Control↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gene Expression Thresholds Derived From Short-term Exposures Identify Rat Liver Tumorigens

Abstract Traditional methods for cancer risk assessment are resource-intensive, retrospective, and not feasible for the vast majority of environmental chemicals. In this study, we investigated whether quantitative genomic data from short-term studies may be used to set protective thresholds for potential tumorigenic effects. We hypothesized that gene expression biomarkers measuring activation of the key early events in established pathways for rodent liver cancer exhibit cross-chemical thresholds for tumorigenesis predictive for liver cancer risk. We defined biomarker thresholds for 6 major liver cancer pathways using training sets of chemicals with short-term genomic data (3–29 days of exposure) from the TG-GATES (n = 77 chemicals) and DrugMatrix (n = 86 chemicals) databases and then tested these thresholds within and between datasets. The 6 pathway biomarkers represented genotoxicity, cytotoxicity, and activation of xenobiotic, steroid, and lipid receptors (aryl hydrocarbon receptor, constitutive activated receptor, estrogen receptor, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α). Thresholds were calculated as the maximum values derived from exposures without detectable liver tumor outcomes. We identified clear response values that were consistent across training and test sets. Thresholds derived from the TG-GATES training set were highly predictive (97%) in a test set of independent chemicals, whereas thresholds derived from the DrugMatrix study were 96%–97% predictive for the TG-GATES study. Threshold values derived from an abridged gene list (2/biomarker) also exhibited high predictive accuracy (91%–94%). These findings support the idea that early genomic changes can be used to establish threshold estimates or “molecular tipping points” that are predictive of later-life health outcomes.

Hill, III,, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spacecraft Complexity Subfactors and Implications on Future Cost Growth

During the last ten years the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has used a set of cost-risk subfactors to independently estimate the magnitude of development risks that may not be covered in the high level cost models employed during early concept development. Within the last several years the Laboratory has also developed a scale of Concept Maturity Levels with associated criteria to quantitatively assess a concept's maturity. This latter effort has been helpful in determining whether a concept is mature enough for accurate costing but it does not provide any quantitative estimate of cost risk. Unfortunately today's missions are significantly more complex than when the original cost-risk subfactors were first formulated. Risks associated with complex missions are not being adequately evaluated and future cost growth is being underestimated. The risk subfactor process needed to be updated.

Mission Design↗

NASA NTRS2013

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Madaras, Eric I↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Refinement and Exploration

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A risk assessment-informed framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk informed capability to quantitatively estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for safety-related DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of safety-related DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the LWRS-developed framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Adding diversity within a system or components is the primary means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases system complexity and may not address all sources of systematic failures. Optimization of diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the proposed framework provides: (a) A best-estimate, risk informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, focusing on software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; (b) A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems; (c) Technical bases and risk informed insights to assist users address the risk informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; and (d) A risk informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The research and development efforts of this project in FY 2023 are focused on refining current methods on software CCF modeling and estimation and exploring additional innovative approaches to risk assessment of DI&C systems to enable a more comprehensive and complete assessment of various safety-related DI&C design architectures. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the methodology, not for the evaluation of an actual digital control system. Results are obtained based on limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1997

Cytogenetic effects of space radiation in lymphocytes of MIR-18 crews

For assessing health risk, the measurement of physical dose received during a space mission, as well as the LETs, energies and charges of particles is important. It is also important to obtain quantitative information regarding the effectiveness of space radiation in causing damage to critical biological targets, e.g., chromosomes, since at present the estimated uncertainty of biological effects of space radiation is more than a factor of two. Such large uncertainty makes accurate health risk assessment very difficult. For this very reason, a study on cytogenetic effects of space radiation in human lymphocytes was proposed and done for MIR-18 mission. This study used FISH technique to score chromosomal translocations and C-banding method to determine dicentrics. Growth kinetics of cells and SCE were examined to ensure that chromosomal aberrations were scored in first mitosis and were induced not by chemical mutagens. Our results showed that chromosomal aberration frequency of post-flight samples was significantly higher than that of pre-flight ones and that SCE frequency was similar between pre- and post-flight samples. Based on a dose-response curve of preflight samples exposed to gamma rays, the absorbed dose received by crews during the mission was estimated to be about 14.5 cSv. Because the absorbed dose measured by physical dosimeters is 4.16 cGy for the entire mission, the RBE is about 3.5.

Mir Project↗

NASA NTRS2002

Nuclear model calculations and their role in space radiation research

Proper assessments of spacecraft shielding requirements and concomitant estimates of risk to spacecraft crews from energetic space radiation requires accurate, quantitative methods of characterizing the compositional changes in these radiation fields as they pass through thick absorbers. These quantitative methods are also needed for characterizing accelerator beams used in space radiobiology studies. Because of the impracticality/impossibility of measuring these altered radiation fields inside critical internal body organs of biological test specimens and humans, computational methods rather than direct measurements must be used. Since composition changes in the fields arise from nuclear interaction processes (elastic, inelastic and breakup), knowledge of the appropriate cross sections and spectra must be available. Experiments alone cannot provide the necessary cross section and secondary particle (neutron and charged particle) spectral data because of the large number of nuclear species and wide range of energies involved in space radiation research. Hence, nuclear models are needed. In this paper current methods of predicting total and absorption cross sections and secondary particle (neutrons and ions) yields and spectra for space radiation protection analyses are reviewed. Model shortcomings are discussed and future needs presented. c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All right reserved.

NASA Center JSC↗