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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Analysis of a Membrane-based Ionic Liquid Desiccant (ILD) Dehumidifier

Air dehumidification through cooling is an energy-intensive process, which consumes about 20-40% of the overall energy for air-conditioning. Liquid desiccant dehumidification can separate dehumidification from space cooling and has potential to improve the cooling efficiency and reduce the overall energy consumption for air-conditioning. However, the drawbacks such as liquid carryover and corrosion, membrane contamination and blocking, limit its application. To eliminate these problems, a new dehumidifier using nonporous membrane and ionic liquid desiccant (ILD) was developed. The dehumidification performance of the new dehumidifier was characterized through a series of lab tests. Test results indicate that the new dehumidifier can achieve a moisture removal rate up to 180.3 g/h and a dehumidification effectiveness up to 12.7%. A parametric study found that the dehumidification performance is sensitive to the flowrates of the air and the ILD solution. A higher mass flow ratio between the ILD solution and the air could result in better dehumidification performance.

Wang, Lingshi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Conduction Cooling Strategies for Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) processing consists of numerous parameters which take time to optimize for various geometries. One aspect of the metal AM process that continues to be explored is the control of thermal energy accumulation during component manufacturing due to the melting and solidification of the feedstock. Excessive energy accumulation causes thermal failure of the component while minimal energy accumulation causes lack of fusion with the build plate or previous layer. The ability to simulate the thermal response of an AM component can increase research efficiency by reducing the time to optimize thermal energy accumulation. This paper presents an effective implementation of finite element analysis to determine the thermal response of a wire arc additive manufactured component with various build plate sizes and cooling methods including, integral build plate cooling, oversized build plates with passive cooling, and non-integral build plate cooling. The use of integral build plate cooling channels was shown to decrease the interpass temperature at the conclusion of the build process by 55% and build plate temperature by 96% compared to the conventionally deposited sample with 20 second dwell time. The use of a tall build plate with passive cooling was shown to reduce the interpass temperature by 32% as compared to the conventionally deposited sample with 20 second dwell time. Each cooling strategy evaluated decreased the interpass temperature within a range of 20–55% which enables higher deposition rates and decreased dwell times during depositions. The cooling strategies are designed to be implemented in a hybrid or retrofit AM platform to mitigate concerns of the thermal input from the additive process having detrimental effects on the precision of the machining process. This paper shows that accurate simulations of all strategies can be used to accurately predict the thermal response of the various strategies discussed. These cooling strategies will allow for increased deposition rates with comparable interpass temperature and decreased dwell time, increasing deposition efficiency. This model and these simulations are verified by experimental results. It is concluded that passive strategies, such as the over-sized tall build plate, can be used when liquid coolant in the AM environment could negatively affect the deposition process. Active cooling strategies, such as the integral build plate cooling could be used if low thermal conductivity materials are deposited or higher material deposition rates are desired. This paper discusses the use of active and passive cooling used during AM and shows how a simulation model can be used to make design choices for cooling strategies. The model also enables verification of select critical process parameters such as dwell times for a desired interpass temperature.

Heinrich, Lauren↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Landau quantization on neutrino emission and absorption

Some neutron stars known as magnetars possess very strong magnetic fields, with surface fields as large as 10 15 G and internal fields that are possibly stronger. Recent observations of the radio pulsar GLEAM-X J1627 suggest it may have a surface field as strong as 10 16 G. In the presence of a strong magnetic field, Leinson and Perez showed and Baiko and Yakovlev confirmed that the energy levels of electrons and protons are quantized and the direct Urca process allows neutron stars to cool rapidly, even at low density. For the case of magnetic fields 𝐵 ≳ 10 16 G, we find features in the emissivity due to energy quantization that are not captured by the frequently employed quasiclassical approximation where energy levels are treated as nearly continuous. Resonances can result in amplification of the neutrino emissivity at specific densities compared to a calculation that neglects quantization, particularly at low temperature. These effects are not important for the thermal evolution of an entire neutron star, but may be relevant for phenomena that depend on behavior at specific densities. Here, we present a fully relativistic calculation of the direct Urca rate in a strong magnetic field using the standard V-A weak Lagrangian incorporating mean field nuclear effects and discuss approaches to the numerical challenge the modified wave functions present and a new semianalytic approximation. These tools are also applicable to calculating neutrino opacities in strong magnetic fields in the ejecta of binary neutron star mergers. We calculate the opacities for neutrinos capturing on free nucleons at subsaturation densities and temperatures exceeding an MeV. We find an enhancement to capture processes of the lowest energy neutrinos by an order of magnitude or more due to suppression of electron Pauli blocking in the case of capture on neutrons, and from the effect of the nucleon magnetic moments in the case of capture on protons.

astrophysical electromagnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling of Spark Plasma Sintering with Advanced Modeling to Enable Process Scale-Up: LDRD Final Project Poster

Electric-field assisted sintering (EFAS) manufacturing techniques reduce energy usage requirements, fabricate near-net-shape parts, and produce bulk nanostructured materials through rapid heating and cooling rates achievable through Joule heating. Process parameters of pulsed DC voltage and constant pressure are applied through stainless steel rams and graphite tooling to the ceramic yttrium oxide powder to be sintered. Our high-fidelity modeling code application advances manufacturing for extreme environments by enabling process-informed design and improving microstructure consistency through multiphysics multiscale process-structure-property-performance correlation simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technoeconomic Benefits of Film-Forming Amine Products Applied to Steam Surface Condensers

In a conventional Rankine cycle, the majority of power plants employ surface condensers that use pumped cooling water to reject heat from the cycle. In such cases, heat rejection occurs in a shell and tube heat exchanger by film-wise condensation of low-pressure steam on stainless steel, titanium, brass, or copper-nickel tubing. To improve the thermal performance of steam surface condensers, a replenishable film-forming substance (FFS) can be ap-plied to the condenser tubing to promote efficient dropwise condensation. Conventionally, film-forming amine prod-uct (FFAP) coatings protect boiler surfaces from oxidative corrosion, which substantially reduces the operation and maintenance costs. To quantify the technical and economic benefits of FFAP coatings applied to condenser tubing due to the promotion of dropwise condensation, a thermal resistance network model was established. Using a rep-resentative steam surface condenser, the improvements in thermal performance (overall heat transfer coefficient) and process parameters (net plant efficiency, cooling water flowrate, and turbine backpressure) were determined due to the enhancement in the condensation heat transfer coefficient. Experimentally measured condensation heat transfer coefficients for common condenser materials were compared with the modeling results and were found to be within attainable bounds. Lastly, the trend in total heat exchanger cost reduction is generalized to understand the trade-off between reduced surface area for heat rejection and increase in coating application costs for a re-plenishable coating system.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-physics Modeling of Radiative Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow for the Reactor Cavity Cooling System

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are notable for their high thermal efficiency and potential for combined heat and power applications. These reactors are particularly appealing due to their advanced passive safety features. HTGRs utilize passive safety systems that function without requiring active components like pumps or compressors during emergencies. These reactor designs depend on a Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) to manage decay heat removal from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accident conditions. The RCCS consists of vertical rectangular channels known as "risers" or riser ducts positioned around the RPV. These risers receive heat from the RPV through both convective and radiative heat transfer mechanisms. Understanding the interplay of multiple physical phenomena, such as fluid dynamics, heat transfer, and neutron interactions, is essential for the effective design and operation of nuclear reactors, particularly for systems like the RCCS. Multi-physics simulations provide a comprehensive approach to studying these interactions, offering detailed insights and enhancing accuracy. They are especially important in RCCS designs, where the interaction between radiative and convective heat transfer can significantly impact system performance. By leveraging multi-physics simulations, complex reactor behaviors can be modeled without compromising the fidelity of the underlying physical processes. This work aims to establish a robust methodology for coupling multiple physical processes in an air-cooled RCCS. By focusing on validating this multi-physics approach, the study involves designing test cases that simulate various conditions to verify the numerical models employed. The outcomes of this research will provide critical insights for accurately modeling and optimizing complex nuclear systems like the RCCS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting melt pool depth and grain length using multiple signatures from in-situ single camera two-wavelength imaging pyrometry for laser powder bed fusion

In laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), the in-situ process signatures are known to have a direct correlation with the microstructural properties of the solidified melt pool (MP). It is known that the MP cooling and heating rates, and laser processing parameters can critically determine the grain structure and thereby affect the part properties. The objective of this work is to study the feasibility of using in-process, high-speed imaging pyrometry for evaluating the solidified MP properties “below” the surface, such as depth and microstructural properties. To accomplish this, we employ an in-house single camera-based two-wavelength imaging pyrometry (STWIP) system for monitoring the printing of single-scan tracks with Inconel 718 on a commercial LPBF printer (EOS M290). Further, the lab designed STWIP system is a coaxial high-speed (>10,000 fps) imaging system capable of monitoring MP temperature, morphology, and intensity profiles. The temperature measurements from STWIP are emissivity independent. The STWIP measured MP signatures of the printed tracks are correlated with the ex-situ microscopy characterized MP depth and the average grain lengths. From the data analysis, using support vector machine (SVM)-based regression models, we found that the MP temperature signatures are crucial for an accurate prediction of MP depth and the grain length, thus validating the novelty and necessity of the developed in-situ monitoring methods and analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

In-Field Testing of Components for Feedback and Control of the ITER Disruption Mitigation System

Here, the shattered pellet injection (SPI) method has been chosen as the disruption mitigation system (DMS) for ITER. To protect the device from plasma disruptions that cause damaging heat and electromagnetic loads, SPI is used to inject high-Z material into the plasma. The process of SPI utilizes cryogenic cooling to form solid pellets. Pellets are accelerated down a barrel and into an angled surface, causing the pellet to shatter prior to entering the tokamak chamber. For the DMS to function reliably, the 27 separate shattered pellet injectors planned for ITER must rely on many components to provide accurate feedback data and for control functions. Each component in the DMS is exposed to an elevated background magnetic field depending on its placement and proximity to the plasma chamber. A Helmholtz coil test stand that is operated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory was utilized to test the components in relevant background field levels to assess component performance. This paper details the test design and results for in-field component operation for a variety of components. This list includes the following components: two different network switches for camera connectivity, a VAT fast shutter valve intended to reduce the flow of SPI propellant gas into the torus, a solenoid control valve intended for use in the pellet formation process, pressure/vacuum switches to be used for feedback and control, a printed circuit board piezo pressure sensor to be used to measure breech pressure, and various relays for the high-voltage pulsed power supply used to drive the SPI propellant valve.

Disruption mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regulating Gas Transport in Molecularly Engineered Polymer Membranes (Final Technical Report)

Energy-efficient separation processes are essential for a wide range of applications ranging from clean fuels (e.g., hydrogen purification) and petroleum refining (e.g., natural gas processing) to water purification and carbon capture. Membrane-mediated separations have shown tremendous promise in providing high productivity and high separation efficiency at significantly lower energy consumption, e.g., up to 90% less energy cost than traditional thermally driven processes such as distillation. Polymeric membranes–the dominant separation membrane materials–have yet to reach their full potential due to their limitations in long-term durability (e.g., productivity loss over the period of their lifetime due to physical aging) or insufficient stability under harsh conditions (e.g., high temperature, chemically complex feeds). This research seeks to establish a new paradigm in polymer membrane material design by harnessing crosslinked model networks with well-defined yet finely tailorable microstructure to facilitate fast and selective gas transport and simultaneously enhance membrane stability. Unlike traditional randomly crosslinked polymers, which suffer from structural inconsistencies and consequently suboptimal gas separation performance, crosslinked model network membranes prepared via a precisely controlled end-linking process enables the creation of previously unattainable microstructure tunability, which, in turn, results in versatile crosslinked membranes with high separation performance that meet the needs of various challenging gas separations. Using model network framework as a fundamental tool by applying this concept in diverse polymer categories, this work has led to the development of various innovative crosslinked membrane structures such as unimodal, bimodal and clustered model networks. These advanced crosslinked polymer membranes not only demonstrate exceptional gas separation performance that significantly outperform existing randomly crosslinked membranes, but also possess excellent long-term durability and robust stability under complex operating conditions. From a fundamental perspective, results from this research provide critical mechanistic insights into gas separation in crosslinked polymer membranes, addressing key knowledge gaps and opening new avenues for membrane design to meet various separation needs. The new membrane materials produced from this research enable the use of polymeric membranes for high temperature gas separations, offering substantial energy and cost savings by eliminating the need for repeated cooling-heating cycles in industrial processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strength and ductility of additively manufactured 316L stainless steel: Impact of neutron irradiation and data variability

Here, this article presents the mechanical properties of additively manufactured (AM) 316L stainless steel processed via the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) method, focusing on the effects of neutron irradiation on mechanical properties and the variability in strength and ductility data. The rapid melting-solidification process and multiple heating-cooling cycles inherent in LPBF typically result in a fine, metastable microstructure with significant local variability. AM 316L builds of varying thicknesses were fabricated, and SS-J3 miniature tensile specimens were machined from six different locations. These specimens were irradiated with fast neutrons to doses of 2 and 10 dpa at target temperatures of 300 °C and 600 °C. Post-irradiation tensile tests were conducted at room temperature, 300 °C, and 600 °C. Compared to conventional 316L stainless steel, AM 316L exhibited higher initial strength but lower ductility. Irradiation at 300 °C caused significant hardening and prompt necking at yield, with limited uniform ductility, although embrittlement was not observed up to 10 dpa. While neutron irradiation, particularly at 600 °C, increased the variability in strength and ductility data, no clear dependence of mechanical properties on build thickness or sampling location was found—contrary to the conventional perception that AM materials may exhibit high property variability. Furthermore, we observed that the variability in property data for LPBF-processed 316L was relatively low compared to that of wrought 316L stainless steel. This reduced variability in AM 316L steel may be attributed to its highly metastable, stress-containing microstructure, which is discussed in the context of general tensile property variations.

Additively manufactured 316L stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Materials for Extreme Environments and Their Use in Nuclear Waste Canisters and Reactors - 20559

The paper focuses on the development of materials which can be utilized in extreme industrial environments. The paper discusses the advancement of materials and their application in components which are utilized in extreme industrial environments as such that of the nuclear field and especially in the nuclear waste field. Nuclear power plants have become an indispensable part of the electricity generation, medical, food processing and many other industries. Though burning small amount of fuel as compared to conventional power plants, they also create waste which is not easy to handle as other types of wastes. The nuclear waste sitting at the bottom of spent fuel tanks around the globe has raised public concerns on how it will be dealt with. Europe has started to give an answer by working on geological repositories. Though till yet, waste has been cooled in spent fuel tanks and after processing, is precisely placed in nuclear waste canisters and casks and transported to sites across the country for further cooling and storage. Though in all this process there had been a great deal of advancement on the type of casks and canisters used and the processes for transporting nuclear material and waste. Often reports about radioactive material leakage, moisture content inside barrels etc. has surfaced. Be it official or unofficial report, there seems a technical failure on how the nuclear waste has been stored and placed at facilities around the globe. The other aspect of this material development is to be beneficial for nuclear reactors. As the technology gets advanced, nuclear reactors change their titles from Gen II to Gen III and so on. The new fleet of upcoming reactors will be exceptionally safer, reliable and more efficient. But these benefits will also bring drawbacks with them. As these reactors will operate at high temperature (above 800 degree Celsius) they also ask for advancement in materials used in the reactor core, fuel used, reactor control etc. The paper tries to answer such concerning questions. The work shows the study done on different material that can be better candidates for extreme environments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast flavor instability in hypermassive neutron star disk outflows

Here, we examine the effect of neutrino flavor transformation by the fast flavor instability (FFI) on long-term mass ejection from accretion disks formed after neutron star mergers. Neutrino emission and absorption in the disk set the composition of the disk ejecta, which subsequently undergoes r-process nucleosynthesis upon expansion and cooling. Here we perform 28 time-dependent, axisymmetric, viscous-hydrodynamic simulations of accretion disks around hypermassive neutron stars (HMNSs) of variable lifetime, using a 3-species neutrino leakage scheme for emission and an annular-lightbulb scheme for absorption. We include neutrino flavor transformation due the FFI in a parametric way, by modifying the absorbed neutrino fluxes and temperatures, allowing for flavor mixing at various levels of flavor equilibration, and also in a way that aims to respect the lepton-number preserving symmetry of the neutrino self-interaction Hamiltonian. We find that for a promptly-formed black hole (BH), the FFI lowers the average electron fraction of the disk outflow due to a decrease in neutrino absorption, driven primarily by a drop in electron neutrino/antineutrino flux upon flavor mixing. For a long-lived HMNS, the disk emits more heavy lepton neutrinos and reabsorbs more electron neutrinos than for a BH, with a smaller drop in flux compensated by a higher neutrino temperature upon flavor mixing. The resulting outflow has a broader electron fraction distribution, a more proton-rich peak, and undergoes stronger radiative driving. Disks with intermediate HMNS lifetimes show results that fall in between these two limits. In most cases, the impact of the FFI on the outflow is moderate, with changes in mass ejection, average velocity, and average electron fraction of order ~10%, and changes in the lanthanide/actinide mass fraction of up to a factor ~2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

TRISO SiC Failure Probability for Reactivity Initiated Accidents in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This work analyzes the failure process of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) during reactivity-initiated accident scenarios for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) with BISON. Two cases are considered—a group control rod withdrawal (CRW) and a control rod ejection (CRE)—reproduced from a previous study. Failure probability is modeled using Weibull statistics, and worst-case scenario Weibull parameters are adopted to simulate the envelopes in BISON with a one-dimensional TRISO model. CRW scenario results are characterized by higher values of maximum energy deposition and final temperature and volumetric strain with respect to the CRE ones, but the latter have remarkably higher SiC failure probability, mainly due to the offset in strain rates between the two cases. This work also confirms the validity and conservatism of the performance envelopes produced in a previous work by replicating the envelope formulation using RELAP5-3D and RAVEN with a different sampling technique and obtaining consistent results. A sensitivity analysis using the Sobol variance decomposition method on SiC failure probability is then performed involving a set of inputs on both CRW and CRE. The two most important parameters are Weibull modulus and characteristic stress, and their relative importance depends on the specific case. The proposed interpretation of the results is that both energy deposition and strain rate influence the relative degree of importance of the failure parameters. Computation of 95% confidence intervals around worst-case scenario SiC failure probability values is also carried out for four different sets of Weibull parameters. Heren a new criterion for SiC TRISO quality classification built upon safety-based ranges of Weibull parameters is proposed to be integrated in future Fuel-Production Quality Assurance Plans.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Flexible Soft X-Ray Image Sensors based on Metal Halide Perovskites With High Quantum Efficiency

Soft X-ray imaging is a powerful tool to explore the structure of cells, probe material with nanometer resolution, and investigate the energetic phenomena in the universe. Conventional soft X-ray image sensors are by and large Si-based charge coupled devices that suffer from low frame rates, complex fabrication processes, mechanical inflexibility, and required cooling below -60 °C. Here, a soft X-ray photodiode is reported based on low-cost metal halide perovskite with comparable performance to commercial Si-based device. Nanothrough network electrode minimized the optical loss due to the shadowing of insensitive layers, while a multidimensional perovskite heterojunction is generated to reduce the photo-generated carrier loss. Further, this strategy promoted a record quantum efficiency of 8 × 10 3 % without cooling, several orders of magnitude greater than the previously achieved. Flexible and curved soft X-ray imaging arrays are fabricated based on this high-performance device structure, demonstrating stable soft X-ray response and sharp imaging capabilities. This work highlights the low-cost and efficient perovskite photodiode as a strong candidate for the next-generation soft X-ray image sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microstructure and properties of a high temperature Al–Ce–Mn alloy produced by additive manufacturing

An Al–10Ce-8Mn (wt%) alloy was designed and fabricated by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (AM). The rapid cooling rates of the AM process produced a refined microstructure with a large fraction of reinforcing intermetallic phases. The tensile properties of the alloy were characterized in the as-fabricated state and following thermal exposure. The properties of the as-fabricated microstructure showed exceptional high-temperature performance and strength retention at elevated temperatures up to 400 °C relative to benchmark wrought Al and AM Al alloy properties. Characterization of the microstructure and thermodynamic modeling of the ternary Al–Ce–Mn system rationalized the solidification and solid-state phase transformations. Finally, analysis of the relevant strengthening mechanisms for both the as-fabricated and thermally exposed conditions was performed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing a Dynamic Segmentation Convolutional Neural Network for Microstructure Analysis of Additively Manufactured Superalloy 718

Additive manufacturing (AM) is revolutionizing almost all industries through the production of intricate geometries previously prohibited by cost or machinability. Ni-based superalloys form a primary alloy class for high temperature applications in the petrochemical, aerospace, and nuclear industries because of their intrinsic resistance to creep and the ability to heat treat the superalloy for high strength. Despite these attractive properties, the extreme work hardening of Ni-based superalloys makes traditional manufacturing of complex shapes difficult and thus, these alloys are an attractive target for AM. Superalloy 718 was chosen as an example superalloy because of the wide variety of precipitates that can form within its composition space from the repetitive heating and cooling cycles of the AM process. The precipitates and other microstructure features, such as grain boundaries and dislocations, will dictate the mechanical properties and thus, there is an extensive challenge to characterize the size, number density, composition, and volume fraction of each microstructural feature from AM fabrication using analytical electron microscopy. This work focused on the application of a pixel-wise classification machine learning (ML) model called a dynamic segmentation convolutional neural network (DSCNN) to identify the microstructural features of an as-fabricated additively manufactured superalloy 718.

Taller, Stephen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divertor Plasma Detachment Control Neural Network

DivControlNN is a state-of-the-art software tool that leverages advanced machine learning techniques to predict and control divertor plasma behavior in fusion reactors. Plasma, a highly energetic and electrically charged gas, requires meticulous management to protect reactor components and maintain optimal energy production. Conventional simulation methods, although extremely detailed, typically demand extensive computational time-making them unsuitable for real-time control scenarios. DivControlNN addresses this challenge by learning from tens of thousands of high-fidelity simulations, thereby creating a rapid surrogate model that can deliver near-instantaneous predictions. At the core of its functionality is a sophisticated technique known as latent space mapping, which condenses complex, high-dimensional plasma data into a compact, lower-dimensional representation. This streamlined representation enables the system to quickly forecast essential plasma properties and determine the precise conditions required for effective detachment. Detachment is a crucial process in which the plasma is cooled before reaching the divertor plates, thereby reducing heat loads and mitigating material erosion. In recent experiments conducted on the KSTAR tokamak in South Korea, DivControlNN successfully guided the detachment process without any fine-tuning-even when applied to a new tungsten divertor configuration. By achieving a computational speed-up of over one hundred million times compared to traditional simulation methods while maintaining low prediction errors, DivControlNN stands to significantly enhance real-time control and diagnostic capabilities in future fusion reactors. This breakthrough paves the way for safer, more reliable reactor operation and represents a major advancement toward realizing fusion energy as a practical, sustainable, and clean power source.

Xu, Xueqiao [Lawrence Livermore National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗