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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Probability of committed warming exceeding 1.5 ∘ C and 2.0 ∘ C Paris targets

Abstract The feasibility of achieving the Paris 1.5 ∘ C target continues to be a complex and hotly debated question. To help resolve this question we calculate probability distributions of the committed warming that would ensue if all anthropogenic emissions were stopped immediately, or at successive future times. We use a simple Earth system model together with a Bayesian approach that incorporates multiple lines of evidence and accounts for known model biases. This analysis reveals a wide range of possible outcomes, including no further warming, but also a 15% chance of overshooting the 1.5 ∘ C target, and 1%–2% chance for 2 ∘ C, even if all emissions had stopped in 2020. If emissions merely stabilize in 2020 and stop in 2040, these probabilities increase to 90% and 17%. The uncertainty arises mainly from that of present forcing by aerosols. Rather than there being a fixed date by which emissions must stop, the probability of reaching either target—which is already below 100%—gradually diminishes with delays in eliminating emissions, by 3%–4% per year for 1.5 ∘ C.

Sherwood, Steven C. (ORCID:0000000174208216)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sampling two-dimensional isometric tensor network states

Sampling a quantum system’s underlying probability distributions is an important computational task, e.g., for quantum advantage experiments and quantum Monte Carlo algorithms. Tensor networks are an invaluable tool for efficiently representing states of large quantum systems with limited entanglement. Algorithms for sampling one-dimensional (1D) tensor networks are well-established and utilized in several 1D tensor network methods. In this paper we introduce two novel sampling algorithms for two-dimensional (2D) isometric tensor network states (isoTNS) that generalize existing 1D tensor network sampling algorithms. Our first proposed algorithm performs independent sampling and yields a single configuration together with its associated probability. The second algorithm employs a greedy search strategy to identify high-probability configurations and their corresponding probabilities. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of these algorithms across quantum states with varying entanglement and system size.

Dumitrescu, Eugene [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158519567)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recovering non-Maxwellian particle velocity distribution functions from collective Thomson-scattered spectra

Collective optical Thomson scattering (TS) is a diagnostic commonly used to characterize plasma parameters. These parameters are typically extracted by a fitting algorithm that minimizes the difference between a measured scattered spectrum and an analytic spectrum calculated from the velocity distribution function (VDF) of the plasma. However, most existing TS analysis algorithms assume that the VDFs are Maxwellian, and applying an algorithm that makes this assumption does not accurately extract the plasma parameters of a non-Maxwellian plasma due to the effect of non-Maxwellian deviations on the TS spectra. We present new open-source numerical tools for forward modeling analytic spectra from arbitrary VDFs and show that these tools are able to more accurately extract plasma parameters from synthetic TS spectra generated by non-Maxwellian VDFs compared to standard TS algorithms. Estimated posterior probability distributions of fits to synthetic spectra for a variety of example non-Maxwellian VDFs are used to determine uncertainties in the extracted plasma parameters and show that correlations between parameters can significantly affect the accuracy of fits in plasmas with non-Maxwellian VDFs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computing an Optimal Entanglement Path with Throughput and Fidelity Considerations

Entanglement distribution is a core function of quantum networks essential for operations including teleportation, distributed quantum sensing, and multisite computation. Entanglement throughput and fidelity are two critical performance measures that depend on the quantum transmission along the links and swapping operations at the repeaters along the path. We study the problem of computing a end-to-end entanglement path that satisfies both fidelity and throughput requirements, leveraging qubit buffers at the nodes and considering the sequential swapping order. We show that the general problem of simultaneously satisfying both metrics to be NP-hard, and develop an algorithm to maximize throughput subject to a given fidelity threshold. We introduce the concepts of entanglement probability distribution and path domination and exploit them in the design of our algorithm. Extensive numerical results show that our algorithm can find optimal solutions in networks with thousands of nodes in less than a second. We also describe practical and possible implementation aspects of this algorithm in terms of devices and architecture support.

Xue, Guoliang [Arizona State University]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal scattering law for structure-dependent-Doppler broadening in FLASSH

Traditional Doppler broadening methods assume that target nuclei velocities follow a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution which inherently assumes that the atoms are a free gas or that their velocities are independent of each other. This approximation is reasonable at high target temperatures and high neutron energies. However, nuclei are not independent: the lattice temperature and chemical binding will define the atomic motion. The thermal scattering law (i.e., TSL or S(α,β)) is a material property which describes the chemical binding and temperature response in terms of available momentum and energy states. In the thermal energy range, this TSL will define the thermal scattering cross sections. In the resonance region, the TSL offers a first-principles description of the probability distribution function for the velocity of the target nuclei. Using the TSL in Doppler broadening captures the structure of the material consistently from the thermal range into the resonance cross sections. In this work, both traditional free-gas and precise TSL Doppler broadening methods for resonance cross section evaluation have been implemented within the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH). This framework provides a generalized formulation for evaluating low-lying resonance data and streamlines nuclear data processing methods. TSL data generated using ab initio lattice dynamics (AILD) can be used to broaden cross section libraries in ENDF format for high-fidelity input into reactor physics calculations. These capabilities are demonstrated for the lowest absorption resonances of {sup 238}U in UO{sub 2}, UC and UN. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Visualization of Critical Points of 2D Scalar Fields for Parametric and Nonparametric Probabilistic Models

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. Here, in this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Description of the multinucleon transfer mechanism for Ca 48 + Pu 244 and Kr 86 + Pt 198 reactions in a quantal transport approach

Multinucleon transfer (MNT) reactions involving heavy projectile and target combinations stand as a promising method for synthesizing new neutron-rich exotic nuclei, which may not be possible using hot or cold fusion reactions or fragmentation. Exploring the mechanisms behind MNT reactions is essential and it requires a comprehensive theoretical framework that can explain the physical observables in these reactions. This work aims to show that the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory is capable of explaining the reaction dynamics observed in MNT reactions. Primary product mass distributions in 48 Ca + 244 Pu reaction at E c.m. = 203.2 MeV and 86 Kr + 198 Pt reaction at E c.m. = 324.2 MeV are calculated and compared with the available experimental data. In this work, we utilize the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations to analyze the mean-field reaction dynamics computationally in the reactions 48 Ca + 244 Pu and 86 Kr + 198 Pt for a broad range of initial angular momenta. Quantal transport description based on the SMF approach is used to calculate quantal diffusion coefficients and mass variances in 48 Ca + 244 Pu and 86 Kr + 198 Pt systems. The primary products arising from quasifission reactions are described by joint probability distribution in the SMF approach and those arising from fusion-fission are estimated by using the statistical deexcitation code gemini + +. Mean values of charge and mass numbers, scattering angles of the primary reaction products, and the total kinetic energies after the collision are calculated within the TDHF framework for a broad range of initial angular momenta. Throughout all the collisions, drift toward the mass symmetry and large mass dispersion associated with this drift are observed. Here, the calculated primary fragment and mass distributions using the SMF approach successfully explain experimental observations for the 48 Ca + 244 Pu and 86 Kr + 198 Pt systems. The primary mass distributions, mean values of binary products, and mass dispersions are determined and results are compared with the available experimental data. The observed agreement between the experimental data and SMF results highlights the effectiveness of the quantal diffusion mechanism based on the SMF approach, which does not include any adjustable parameters other than standard parameters of Skyrme energy density functional.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2020 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2020. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • HPCS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • EPS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS EDG FTLR failure probability • EPS EDG unavailability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining ΛCDM cosmological parameters with Einstein Telescope mock data

ABSTRACT We investigate the capability of Einstein Telescope to constrain the cosmological parameters of the non-flat ΛCDM cosmological model. Two types of mock data sets are considered depending on whether or not a short gamma-ray burst is detected, and associated with the gravitational wave emitted by binary neutron stars merger, using the THESEUS satellite. Depending on the mock data set, two statistical estimators are applied: one assumes that the redshift is known, while the other marginalizes over it assuming a specific redshift prior distribution. We demonstrate that (i) using mock catalogues collecting gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems to which a short gamma-ray burst has been associated, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.40$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.09$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.07$; while (ii) using mock catalogues collecting all gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems for which an electromagnetic counterpart has not been detected, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.04$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.01$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.01$, once the redshift probability distribution of GW events is known from from population synthesis simulations and/or the measure of the tidal deformability parameter. These results show an improvement of a factor 2–75 with respect to earlier results using complementary data sets.

Califano, Matteo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2022 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2022. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time-period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed include subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) HPCS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), and (3) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) EPS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS EDG FTLR failure probability, (3) EPS EDG unavailability, and (4) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating plasma dynamics in Hasegawa–Wakatani turbulence by information geometry

In this work, the impact of adiabatic electrons on drift-wave turbulence, modeled by the Hasegawa–Wakatani equations, is studied using information length. Information length is a novel theoretical method for measuring distances between statistical states represented by different probability distribution functions (PDFs) along the path of a system and represents the total number of statistically different states that a system evolves through in time. Specifically, the time-dependent PDFs of turbulent fluctuations for a given adiabatic index $A$ are computed. The changes in fluctuation statistics are then quantified in time by using information length. The numerical results provide time traces exhibiting intermittent plasma dynamics, and such behavior is identified by a rapid change in the information length. The effects of $A$ are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗