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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Ensemble Optimization Framework for Coupled Design of Hydropower Contracts and Real-Time Reservoir Operating Rules

Often, revenues from hydropower generation depend on the operator's ability to provide firm power in the presence of uncertain inflows. The primary options available for optimizing revenue are negotiation of a firm power contract before operations begin and adjustment of the reservoir release during operations. Contract and release strategy optimization are closely coupled and most appropriately analyzed with stochastic real-time control methods. Here we use an ensemble-based approach to stochastic optimization that provides a convenient way to construct nonparametric revenue probability distributions to explore the implications of uncertainty. The firm power contract is a simplified bilateral fixed price agreement that partially insulates operator and buyer from price fluctuations. The release control laws and firm energy target are jointly optimized to maximize the operator's expected revenue. Revenue probability distributions and related spill performance statistics indicate that predictive operating strategies such as stochastic dynamic programming and model predictive control can give significantly better performance than standard deterministic operating rules. The performance obtained from batch optimization with perfect inflow information establishes a convenient upper bound on potential revenue and provides a baseline for assessing the significance of differences between real-time operating strategies. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the benefits of predictive operational strategies are greatest for reservoirs with medium nondimensional residence times and less important for reservoirs with large residence times. Overall, probabilistic analysis of the coupled hydropower contract-operations problem provides a realistic way to assess revenue and risk for reservoirs that must provide firm power when inflows are uncertain.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Probabilistic Risk Mitigation Model for Cyber-Attacks to PMU Networks

The power grid is becoming more dependent on information and communication technologies. Complex networks of advanced sensors such as phasor measurement units (PMUs) are used to collect real time data to improve the observability of the power system. Recent studies have shown that the power grid has significant cyber vulnerabilities which could increase when PMUs are used extensively. Therefore, recognizing and responding to vulnerabilities are critical to the security of the power grid. This paper proposes a risk mitigation model for optimal response to cyber-attacks to PMU networks. We model the optimal response action as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem to prevent propagation of the cyber-attacks and maintain the observability of the power system.

Cyber-attack↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Safety Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) are being tested by different nuclear vendors and research organizations and their introduction in the US light water reactors fleet is planned for the second half of the 2020`s. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis pathway, researches are being conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory for developing tools and methods that can help the industry quantifying the benefits from the adoption of ATF technology. In this paper we describe the developed risk-informed methodology including the safety analysis codes improvements, and we present some results for selected accident scenarios. The developed methodology combines INL state-of-the-art deterministic Best Estimate code RELAP5-3D, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis tools RAVEN and SAPHIRE. The analyses are performed on a three-loops pressurized water reactor, simulating Station Blackout and LB-LOCA accidents and considering near-term ATFs, or FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads. Finally, we show how, applying our methodology, the new Core Damage Frequency can be assessed. The results indicated that the main benefits in introducing near-term ATFs concern a significant reduction in the hydrogen production during accident conditions. No significant Core Damage Frequency reduction was found.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Safety Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) are being tested by different nuclear vendors and research organization and their introduction in light water reactors fleet is planned for the second half of the 2020`s. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Safety Analysis pathway (LWRS-RISA), research activities are being conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for developing tools and methods that can help the industry in quantifying the ATF introduction benefits. In this paper we describe the developed risk-informed methodology, the codes improvements and we present some results for selected accidental conditions. The developed methodology combines INL state-of-the-art deterministic Best Estimate tools like RELAP5-3D code, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis tools like RAVEN and SAPHIRE codes. The analyses are performed on a three-loops pressurized water reactor (PWR) simulating accidental conditions like Station Blackout and LB-LOCA and considering near-term ATF (FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads). Finally, we show, through our methodologies, how the delta-Core Damage Frequency can be assessed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2018

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2018. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2018 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multivariate Predictive Analytics of Wind Power Data for Robust Control of Energy Storage

Short-term forecasting is frequently identified as an important tool for the effective management of wind generation. However, forecasting errors, inherent to the point forecasts, increase requirements for energy storage and can affect optimal system operation. Probabilistic forecasts can help tackle this issue by providing a proper characterization of forecasting errors in the optimization process. This paper proposes a multivariate model of forecasting data for wind generation. Predictive uncertainty intervals of wind power can be obtained by sampling from the proposed model. The main goal is to use empirical data models without linear or Gaussian approximations of the distributional or temporal variations. The predictive modeling is utilized within a case study of an energy storage system. Finally, a modified robust convex programming is used to maintain the practical robustness and feasibility of the solution based on the sampled scenarios from the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Industry Fire Modeling Enhancement Tools and Methods. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program report

Modeling and implementing fire safety for nuclear power plants is a costly activity. Because of the complexity of fire phenomenon and multiple operational procedures, it is difficult to computationally provide assurance that the mitigation methods are adequate for critical areas using current analysis methods. An economical method to provide more accurate modeling and optimize mitigation methods is needed to improve nuclear power viability. This report describes the background of current fire model strategy; the first stage of a tool to help reduce resources needed in fire analysis and the plan for the next step in advancing fire. The report lays out the path decided upon by Idaho National Laboratory and Industry representatives to best help reduce costs and improve realism in Fire Probabilistic Risk Analysis.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2016

INL Seismic Monitoring Annual Report: January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013

During 2013, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) recorded 14,011 independent triggers and 7,355 triggers were manmade blasts and distant, regional, and local earthquakes. Within the region, the INL Seismic Monitoring program located 2,085 earthquakes and 150 man-made blasts. Near and within the 161-km radius of INL, 38 of these earthquakes had small to moderate size magnitudes that ranged from 3.0 to 4.2. Residents near 19 of the M>3.0 earthquakes reported ground shaking affects of these earthquakes to the U.S. Geological Survey. Also, five new seismic stations with broadband seismometers and accelerometers were installed near INL facility areas. These new stations were installed to collect earthquake data that can be used in future INL probabilistic seismic hazard analyses to reduce uncertainties of ground motion models. In 2013, 1,013 earthquakes were located within the 161-km radius of INL and three occurred within the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP). The earthquakes included three swarms and a mainshock-aftershock sequence. The earthquakes were located northwest of the INL in the Basin and Range regions of Idaho and Montana and southeast of the ESRP in the Basin and Range region along the Idaho-Wyoming border. A swarm of >180 earthquakes occurred at Driggs, Idaho; the largest events had local magnitudes (ML) of 2.8 and 3.1 and were felt by residents. A less intense swarm of 64 earthquakes was located west of Jackson, Wyoming along the Idaho-Wyoming border. The largest event was a MW 3.8 that was felt by local residents. Southeast of Pocatello, Idaho an earthquake of ML 4.2 was followed by 18 aftershocks that included a ML 3.6. Both earthquakes were felt by residents near to the epicenters. Three earthquakes occurred within the ESRP and three other earthquakes were located at the northwest edge of the ESRP. The coda magnitude (Mc) 1.3 earthquake was located in the center of ESRP north of the Great Rift and at a depth of 45 km. To the west, an earthquake of Mc 0.7 was located at a depth of 37 km and at the northwestern end of the Great Rift. Four earthquakes, Mc 0.0, Mc 1.3, Mc 1.8, and Mc 1.1 were located north of the INL along the edge of the ESRP. The Mc 0.0 and 1.1 earthquakes were located just within the ESRP at depths less than 6 km.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probabalistic Modeling of Minibangs and Megabands (Final Report)

This project was original proposed as a fundamental advance in the treatment of probabilistic modeling as it applies to nuclear fission calculations of nuclear database inputs and produced particle distributions in heavy-ion collisions. However, funding decisions made within LLNL and the DOE Office of Science led to the project proceeding through three distinct stages. The first two, probabilistic calculations of the fission and jet energy loss relate follow directly from the proposed research. The fission task led to the development of a proof-of-principle Gaussian Process Emulator for time-dependent generator coordinate method (TDGCM) calculation for the fission of Pu-240. To study energy loss in heavy-ion collisions with a probabilistic model, we generated a training data set using the Pythia event generator superimposed on a heavy-ion background with a single quench-factor parameter. We then used kernel density estimation (KDE) to recover the distribution of quench-factors for a calibration data set. In the third stage, we proceeded to work through collaborations, collecting new data within the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and further developing bayesian methodology within the Jet Energy-loss Tomography with a Statistically and Computationally Advanced Program Envelope (JETSCAPE) Collaboration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variation-Resilient FeFET-Based In-Memory Computing Leveraging Probabilistic Deep Learning

Reliability issues stemming from device level nonidealities of nonvolatile emerging technologies like ferroelectric field-effect transistors (FeFETs), especially at scaled dimensions, cause substantial degradation in the accuracy of in-memory crossbar-based AI systems. Here, in this work, we present a variation-aware design technique to characterize the device level variations and to mitigate their impact on hardware accuracy employing a Bayesian neural network (BNN) approach. An effective conductance variation model is derived from the experimental measurements of cycle-to-cycle (C2C) and device-to-device (D2D) variations performed on FeFET devices fabricated using 28 nm high-k metal gate technology. The variations were found to be a function of different conductance states within the given programming range, which sharply contrasts earlier efforts where a fixed variation dispersion was considered for all conductance values. Such variation characteristics formulated for three different device sizes at different read voltages were provided as prior variation information to the BNN to yield a more exact and reliable inference. Near-ideal accuracy for shallow networks (MLP5 and LeNet models) on the MNIST dataset and limited accuracy decline by ~3.8%–16.1% for deeper AlexNet models on CIFAR10 dataset under a wide range of variations corresponding to different device sizes and read voltages, demonstrates the efficacy of our proposed device-algorithm co-design technique.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Shuttle Strategies for Parallel QCCD Architectures

Trapped ions (TIs) are at the forefront of quantum computing implementation, offering unparalleled coherence, fidelity, and connectivity. However, the scalability of TI systems is hampered by the limited capacity of individual ion traps, necessitating intricate ion shuttling for advanced computational tasks. The quantum charge-coupled device (QCCD) framework has emerged as a promising solution, facilitating ion mobility for universal quantum computation. Current QCCD architectures predominantly feature a linear topology, which is increasingly recognized as inefficient for complex quantum operations. Anticipating the shift toward more efficacious designs, this article introduces an innovative quantum scheduling strategy optimized for parallel QCCD topologies. Our strategy proposes a probabilistic formula for ion movement, alongside ingenious methods for local layer generation and layer compression, yielding a significant reduction in ion shuttle times. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our strategy not only substantially outstrips the linear model but also exhibits better performance over other parallel strategies that employ greedy algorithms. This is achieved through our nuanced resolution of complexities, such as traffic blocks and trap capacity limitations. The consequent reduction in shuttle operations leads to lower energy consumption and an enhancement in the quantum computer's fidelity, ultimately accelerating program execution times.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Advancing Risk‐Informed Decision Making in Managing Defense Nuclear Waste in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for Risk Analysis

Abstract An omnibus spending bill in 2014 directed the Department of Energy to analyze how effectively Department of Energy (DOE) identifies, programs, and executes its plans to address public health and safety risks that remain as part of DOE's remaining environmental cleanup liabilities. A committee identified two dozen issues and associated recommendations for the DOE, other federal agencies, and the U.S. Congress to consider, as well as other stakeholders such as states and tribal nations. In regard to risk assessment, the committee described a risk review process that uses available data, expert experience, identifies major data gaps, permits input from key stakeholders, and creates an ordered set of risks based on what is known. Probabilistic risk assessments could be a follow‐up from these risk reviews. In regard to risk management, the states, in particular, have become major drivers of how resources are driven. States use different laws, different priorities, and challenge DOE's policies in different ways. Land use decisions vary, technology choices are different, and other notable variations are apparent. The cost differences associated with these differences are marked. The net result is that resources do not necessarily go to the most prominent human health and safety risks, as seen from the national level.

Greenberg, Michael R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human Performance Analysis Depending on Operator Expertise (Student vs. Operator) and Simulator Complexity (Rancor Microworld vs. Compact Nuclear Simulator)

Human reliability analysis (HRA) evaluates human errors and provides human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which is a comprehensive safety assessment method for nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, HRA methods estimate HEPs based on human reliability data collected from actual historical measurement, simulator experiments, or expert judgement. Most recent HRA data collection studies focus on collecting data via full-scope main control room (MCR) simulators with actual licensed reactor operators. Contrary to this, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has adopted a different approach, which attempts to collect HRA data based on experiment using simplified simulators and student participants by following the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). This approach has a couple of advantages compared to full-scope data collection. Representatively, it has relatively low entry point for collecting HRA data, and secures large sample sizes with reasonable cost and labor. In the previous studies, we developed the SHEEP framework, then verified whether the data collected through the framework could support a representative full-scope data collection study, i.e., the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) study. Also, we analyzed human performance measurements depending on participant type (i.e., student vs. operator). In this paper, we analyze human performance data collected from an experiment comparing operator expertise and simulator complexity when using the more simplified simulator developed by INL, i.e., Rancor Microworld and the less simplified simulator, i.e., Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests and correlation analysis are used for analyzing the experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al., 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report on High Energy Arcing Fault Experiments: Experimental Results from Open Box Enclosures

This report documents an experimental program designed to investigate High Energy Arcing Fault (HEAF) phenomena. The experiments focus on providing data to better characterize the arc to improve the prediction of arc energy emitted during a HEAF event. An open box experiment allow for direct observation of the arc, which allows diagnostic instrumentation to record the phenomenological data needed for better characterization of the arc energy source term. The data collected supports characterization of the arc and arc jet, enclosure breach, material loss, and electrical properties. These results will be used to better characterizing the hazard for improvements in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) realism. The experiments were performed at KEMA Labs located in Chalfont, Pennsylvania. The experimental design, setup, and execution were completed by staff from the NRC, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and KEMA Labs. In addition, representatives from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) observed some of the experimental setup and execution. The HEAF experiments were performed between August 22, 2020 and September 18, 2020 on near-identical 51 cm (20 in) cube metal boxes suspended from a Unistrut support structure. The three-phase arcing fault was initiated at the ends of the conductors oriented vertically and located at the center of the box. Either aluminum or copper conductors were used for the conductors. The low-voltage experiments used 1 000 volts AC, while the medium-voltage experiments used 6 900 volts AC consistent with other recently completed experiments. Durations of the experiment ranged from 1 s to 5 s with fault currents ranging from 1 kA to 30 kA. Real-time electrical operating conditions, including voltage, current and frequency, were measured during the experiments. Heat fluxes and incident energies were measured with plate thermometers, radiometers, and slug calorimeters at various locations around the electrical enclosures. The experiments were documented with normal and high-speed videography, infrared imaging and photography.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report on High Energy Arcing Fault Experiments: Experimental Results from Low-Voltage Switchgear Enclosures

This report documents an experimental program designed to investigate High Energy Arcing Fault (HEAF) phenomena for low-voltage metal enclosed switchgear containing aluminum conductors. This report covers full-scale laboratory experiments using representative nuclear power plant (NPP) three-phase electrical equipment. Electrical, thermal, and pressure data were recorded for each experiment and documented in this report. This report covers experiments performed on two low-voltage switchgear units with each unit consisting of two vertical sections. The data collected supports characterization of the low-voltage HEAF hazard and these results will be used to support potential improvements in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods. The experiments were performed at KEMA Labs located in Chalfont, Pennsylvania. The experimental design, setup, and execution were completed by staff from the NRC, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and KEMA. In addition, representatives from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) observed some of the experimental setup and execution. The HEAF experiments were performed between August 26 and Augsut 29, 2019 on nearidentical Westinghouse Type DS low-voltage metal-enclosed indoor switchgear. The threephase arcing fault was initiated on the aluminum main bus or in select cases on the copper bus stabs near the breaker. These experiments used either nominal 480 volts AC or 600 volts AC. Durations of the experiments ranged from approximately 0.4 s to 8.3 s with fault currents ranging from approximately 9.2 kA to 19.3 kA. Real-time electrical operating conditions, including voltage, current and frequency, were measured during the experiments. Heat fluxes and incident energies were measured with plate thermometers, radiometers, and slug calorimeters at various locations around the electrical enclosures. Environmental measurements of breakdown, conductivity and electromagnetics were also taken. The experiments were documented with normal and high-speed videography, infrared imaging and photography. The results, while limited, indicated the difficulty in maintaining and sustaining low-voltage arcs on aluminum components of sufficient duration and at a single point as observed operating experience.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗