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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Finite Element Analysis and Techno-economic Modeling of Solar Silicon Molten Salt Electrolysis

A new process is presented for low-cost one-step production of pure solid silicon from natural quartzite by molten salt electrolysis. At a process temperature of 1100°C, a techno-economic model including detailed mass and energy balances estimates energy consumption below 15 kWh/kg, with operating cost of $\$1.74$/kg and capital cost around $\$10,500$ per t/a (tonne annually) of production capacity for a 160,000 t/a plant. Use of an inert solid oxide membrane anode results in a pure oxygen by-product and no direct emissions. As a result, finite element analysis estimates the current density distribution and total current to inform the design of slab-shaped solid silicon cathodes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Durable Module Materials (DuraMAT) Consortium (Final Technical Report)

The DuraMAT Consortium brings together DOE national lab and university research capabilities with the photovoltaic (PV) and supply-chain industries to accelerate a sustainable, just, and equitable transition to zero carbon electricity generation by 2035 through our five core objectives: development of a central data resource for PV modules, multi-scale and multi-physics modeling, disruptive acceleration science, forensic tools for fielded modules, and materials solutions for more durable, reliable, and resilient modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Frequency Analysis of Solar PV Power to Enable Optimal Building Load Control

In this paper, we present a flexibility estimation mechanism for buildings’ thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) to enable the distribution level consumption of the majority of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation by local building TCLs. The local consumption of PV generation provides several advantages to the grid operation as well as the consumers, such as reducing the stress on the distribution network, minimizing voltage fluctuations and two-way power flows in the distribution network, and reducing the required battery storage capacity for PV integration. This would result in increasing the solar PV generation penetration levels. The aims of this study are twofold. First, spectral (frequency) analyses of solar PV power generation together with the power consumption of multiple building TCLs (such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, water heaters, and refrigerators) are performed. These analyses define the bandwidth over which these TCLs can operate and also describe the PV generation frequency bandwidth. Such spectral analyses, in frequency domain, can help identify the flexible components of PV generation that can be consumed by the various TCLs through optimal building load utilization. Second, a quadratic optimization problem based on model predictive control is formulated to allow consuming most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV power locally by building TCLs, while maintaining occupants’ comfort and TCLs’ physical constraints. The solution to the proposed optimization problem is achieved using optimal control strategies. Numerical results show that most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV generation can be consumed locally by building TCLs. The remaining high-frequency content of the PV generation can then be stored/offset using energy storage systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stratospheric aerosol injection can weaken the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method for offsetting greenhouse gas-induced warming by introducing scattering aerosols into the lower stratosphere to reflect sunlight. Here we explore a potentially more efficient alternative: weakening the Earth’s greenhouse effect by deploying absorptive aerosols in the upper stratosphere (~10 hPa). These aerosols warm the carbon dioxide emission level—where outgoing longwave radiation is most sensitive to temperature—thereby enhancing top-of-atmosphere infrared emission without altering atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Idealized climate model simulations indicate that this approach can reduce global temperatures an order of magnitude more efficiently per unit aerosol mass than conventional scattering-based interventions. Although based on simplified model experiments lacking interactive aerosol processes and operational constraints, our results identify a distinct physical mechanism for climate intervention, arguing for further research into the impacts—especially potential unintended side effects—of injecting absorptive aerosols into the upper stratosphere as an alternative solar radiation management strategy.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conductivity Spectroscopy for Investigation and Discovery of Photovoltaic Materials

Conductivity spectroscopy is an extremely powerful set of methods for probing the properties of optoelectronic materials, especially photovoltaics, where photoconductivity is one of the best spectroscopic proxies for performance. Despite this power, they are substantially less commonly used than time-resolved photoluminescence (for instance) because they tend to be more expensive to implement (THz) and/or require specialized knowledge (GHz) to construct instruments, which are not widely available. The goal of this review is to illustrate the utility of these experiments in the discovery and study of photovoltaic absorber materials and simultaneously make them more accessible to the community by providing a central tutorial resource. We provide a comprehensive review of how conductivity spectroscopy has developed over the past decade and been applied in the discovery and development of photovoltaic materials, with a primary focus on emerging solution-processable technologies. Along the way we aim to demystify conductivity spectroscopy with focused tutorial sections that explain the physical models used to fit the data and illustrate how to think about “high-frequency conductivity”.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Challenges of Modeling Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) as Blackstart Resources and for Volt-VAR Optimality

Modeling, testing and instituting Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) as Blackstart Resoucrces presents several challenges due to the fundamental differences between traditional black start resources (e.g., large generators) versus DERs like solar PV systems with battery storage. This paper addresses some of these key challenges. These include intermittency of coordinating DERs to provide continuous power during a black start event, especially during extended periods of cloud cover or when battery energy storage is depleted. This paper additionally addresses the collapsing voltage and stability control challenges specific to maintaining bulk power system stability during black start synchronization These physical and engineering limitations require careful engineering design, modeling and engineering to ensure that DERs can support critical loads and substations during black start events. A variety of additional challenges also exist. Additionally, there are challenges associated with feeder location and low voltage secondary system impacts on DER functions and settings. We compare typical functions and settings for DERs for power factor control and correction. We also demonstrate how voltag control via Volta-VAR power factor correction can be done

Mukherjee, Srijib↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of Onsite Temperature and Solar Forecasting Models to Enable Better Building Design and Operations

Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as the decision inputs. However, most buildings are in environments that are quite different than those at the airport miles away. Tree cover, adjacent buildings, and micro-climate effects caused by the larger surrounding area can all yield deviations in air temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, and wind that are large enough to influence design and operation decisions. In order to overcome this challenge, there are many prior studies on developing weather forecasting algorithms from micro-to meso-scales. Additionally, this paper reviews and complies knowledge on common weather data resources, data processing methodologies and forecasting techniques of weather information. Commonly used statistical, machine learning and physical-based models are discussed and presented as two major categories: deterministic forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Finally, evaluation metrics for forecasting errors are listed and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for New Physics via Low-Energy Electron Recoils with a 4.2 Tonne-Year Exposure from the LZ Experiment

We report results from searches for new physics models through electron recoils using data collected by the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment during its first two science runs, with a total exposure of 4.2 tonne−years. The observed data are consistent with a background-only hypothesis. Constraints are derived for electromagnetic interactions of solar neutrinos, solar axionlike particles (ALPs), mirror dark matter, and the absorption of bosonic dark matter candidates. The inverse Primakoff process for 57 Fe deexcitation solar ALPs is considered for the first time. These results represent the most stringent constraints to date on keV-scale Primakoff and 57 Fe solar ALPs, bosonic dark matter, mirror dark matter, and neutrino millicharge, while remaining competitive for the other signal models investigated.

Axion-like particles↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the Importance of the Convective Urca Process in 3D Simulations of a Simmering White Dwarf

Type Ia supernovae are bright thermonuclear explosions that are important to numerous areas of astronomy. However, the origins of these events are poorly understood. One proposed setting is that of a near Chandrasekhar mass white dwarf that undergoes runaway carbon burning in the core. During the thousand years leading up to the explosion, the white dwarf undergoes a simmering phase where slow carbon burning heats the core and drives convection. A poorly understood aspect of this phase is the convective Urca process, which links convection with weak nuclear reactions. We use the low Mach number code MAESTROeX to perform full 3D simulations as is required to accurately capture the turbulent convection. We present simulations with and without the A=23 convective Urca process, which have relaxed to a steady state. We characterize the effects of the convective Urca process on the neutrino losses, the nuclear energy generation, and the convective boundary. We find that the size of the convection zone is substantially reduced by the convective Urca process, though convection still extends past the Urca shell. Our findings on the structure of the convective zone and the compositional changes can be used to inform 1D stellar models that track the longer-timescale evolution.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining nuclear mass models using 𝑟-process observables with multiobjective optimization

Modeling nuclear masses, particularly for nuclei far from stability, remains a key objective in nuclear physics. One contemporary approach is machine learning (ML), which trains on experimental data, but can suffer large errors when extrapolating toward neutron-rich species. In nature, such masses shape observables for the rapid neutron capture process (𝑟 process), which in principle could inform ML models. Here, we introduce a multiobjective optimization approach using the Pareto front algorithm. We show that this technique, capable of identifying models that generate 𝑟-process abundances aligning with both solar and stellar data, is a promising method to select ML models with reliable extrapolation power.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling of Electron Heating by Magnetization During Reconnection and Applications to Dipolarization Fronts and Super-Hot Solar Flares

Electron ring velocity space distributions have previously been seen in numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection exhausts and have been suggested to be caused by the magnetization of the electron outflow jet by the compressed reconnected magnetic fields (Shuster et al., 2014, https://doi. org/10.1002/2014GL060608). Here, we present a theory of the dependence of the major and minor radii of the ring distributions solely in terms of upstream (lobe) plasma conditions, thereby allowing a prediction of the associated temperature and temperature anisotropy of the rings in terms of upstream parameters. We test the validity of the prediction using 2.5-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations with varying upstream plasma density and temperature, finding excellent agreement between the predicted and simulated values. We confirm the Shuster et al. suggestion for the cause of the ring distributions, and also find that the ring distributions are located in a region marked by a plateau, or shoulder, in the reconnected magnetic field profile. The predictions of the temperature are consistent with observed electron temperatures in dipolarization fronts, and may provide an explanation for the generation of plasma with temperatures in the 10s of MK in super-hot solar flares. A possible extension of the model to dayside reconnection is discussed. Since ring distributions are known to excite whistler waves, the present results should be useful for quantifying the generation of whistler waves in reconnection exhausts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Missing in axion: Where are XENON1T’s big black holes?

We pioneer the black hole mass gap as a powerful new tool for constraining new particles. A new particle that couples to the Standard Model – such as an axion – acts as an additional source of loss in the cores of population-III stars, suppressing mass lost due to winds and quenching the pair-instability. This results in heavier astrophysical black holes. As an example, using stellar simulations we show that the solar axion explanation of the recent XENON1T excess implies astrophysical black holes of ~56M ⊙ , squarely within the black hole mass gap predicted by the Standard Model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nanoscale Imaging of Optical-Frequency Plasmonic Energy Transfer in Individual Nanoparticles and their Assemblies

The nonradiative transfer of energy from plasmonic metal nanostructures to their neighboring environments is a rapidly expanding research area because of its tremendous potential impact on photovoltaics and photocatalysis. Despite the significant progress achieved via optical spectroscopies, understanding the differing and competing energy transfer pathways available to these systems still presents a major challenge due to a lack of insight into their nanoscale optical responses. With the atom-scale spatial resolving power of the electron microscope and its ability to probe optical transitions, electron spectroscopies like EELS are uniquely suited for these challenges. Our proposal addressed STEM/EELS techniques (Camden) to directly measure and even control energy transfer pathways in hybrid plasmon-resonator systems and leveraged detailed theoretical models combined with simulation (Masiello) to understand the essential underlying physics. In particular, the outcome of our proposed studies deepened the fundamental understanding of how surface plasmons shed energy to their environment and the practical knowledge gained here will influence the design of future high-efficiency solar energy-harvesting devices and photocatalysts capable of operating throughout the visible and the infrared.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗