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At least 199 records · Page 11

Sensitivity analysis of high-efficiency silicon solar-cell design parameters

Silicon solar cell design parameters were investigated to determine their bearing on cell efficiency. Among the parameters reviewed were: (1) bulk resistivity, (2) minority carrier lifetime cell thickness, (3) front junction depth, (4) front surface doping concentration, (5) front surface recombination velocity, and (6) back surface contact. The following were concluded: (1) there is good agreement between experimental and simulation results; (2) sheet material quality improvement is needed for high efficiency cells; (3) 20% cell of this design is feasible with 10 ms bulk lifetime material; and (4) for achieving efficiencies higher than 20% new cell designs including thin cells with light trapping and back surface field should be considered.

Mokashi, A. R.↗

Influence of torsional-lateral coupling on stability behavior of geared rotor systems

In high-performance turbomachinery trouble often arises because of unstable nonsynchronous lateral vibrations. The instabilities are mostly caused by oil-film bearings, clearance excitation, internal damping, annular pressure seals in pumps, or labyrinth seals in turbocompressors. In recent times the coupling between torsional and lateral vibrations has been considered as an additional influence. This coupling is of practical importance in geared rotor systems. The literature describes some field problems in geared drive trains where unstable lateral vibrations occurred together with torsional oscillations. This paper studies the influence of the torsional-lateral coupling on the stability behavior of a simple geared system supported by oil-film bearings. The coupling effect is investigated by parameter studies and a sensitivity analysis for the uncoupled and coupled systems.

Schwibinger, P.↗

Thermal control design of the Lightning Mapper Sensor narrow-band spectral filter

The performance of the Lightning Mapper Sensor is dependent on the temperature shifts of its narrowband spectral filter. To perform over a 10 degree FOV with an 0.8 nm bandwidth, the filter must be 15 cm in diameter and mounted externally to the telescope optics. The filter thermal control required a filter design optimized for minimum bandpass shift with temperature, a thermal analysis of substrate materials for maximum temperature uniformity, and a thermal radiation analysis to determine the parameter sensitivity of the radiation shield for the filter, the filter thermal recovery time after occultation, and heater power to maintain filter performance in the earth-staring geosynchronous environment.

Flannery, Martin R.↗

Credible Computations: Standard and Uncertainty

The discipline of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at a crossroad. Most of the significant advances related to computational methods have taken place. The emphasis is now shifting from methods to results. Significant efforts are made in applying CFD to solve design problems. The value of CFD results in design depends on the credibility of computed results for the intended use. The process of establishing credibility requires a standard so that there is a consistency and uniformity in this process and in the interpretation of its outcome. The key element for establishing the credibility is the quantification of uncertainty. This paper presents salient features of a proposed standard and a procedure for determining the uncertainty. A customer of CFD products - computer codes and computed results - expects the following: A computer code in terms of its logic, numerics, and fluid dynamics and the results generated by this code are in compliance with specified requirements. This expectation is fulfilling by verification and validation of these requirements. The verification process assesses whether the problem is solved correctly and the validation process determines whether the right problem is solved. Standards for these processes are recommended. There is always some uncertainty, even if one uses validated models and verified computed results. The value of this uncertainty is important in the design process. This value is obtained by conducting a sensitivity-uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis is generally defined as the procedure for determining the sensitivities of output parameters to input parameters. This analysis is a necessary step in the uncertainty analysis, and the results of this analysis highlight which computed quantities and integrated quantities in computations need to be determined accurately and which quantities do not require such attention. Uncertainty analysis is generally defined as the analysis of the effect of the uncertainties involved in all stages of a process on the final responses. There are two approaches for conducting the uncertainty analysis: experimental and computational. These analyses and approaches are briefly described.

Mehta, Unmeel B.↗

Aeroelastic System Development Using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition and Volterra Theory

This research combines Volterra theory and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) into a hybrid methodology for reduced-order modeling of aeroelastic systems. The out-come of the method is a set of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the modal amplitudes associated with both the structural modes and the POD basis functions for the uid. For this research, the structural modes are sine waves of varying frequency, and the Volterra-POD approach is applied to the fluid dynamics equations. The structural modes are treated as forcing terms which are impulsed as part of the uid model realization. Using this approach, structural and uid operators are coupled into a single aeroelastic operator. This coupling converts a free boundary uid problem into an initial value problem, while preserving the parameter (or parameters) of interest for sensitivity analysis. The approach is applied to an elastic panel in supersonic cross ow. The hybrid Volterra-POD approach provides a low-order uid model in state-space form. The linear uid model is tightly coupled with a nonlinear panel model using an implicit integration scheme. The resulting aeroelastic model provides correct limit-cycle oscillation prediction over a wide range of panel dynamic pressure values. Time integration of the reduced-order aeroelastic model is four orders of magnitude faster than the high-order solution procedure developed for this research using traditional uid and structural solvers.

Lucia, David J.↗

Mars Sample Return Using Commercial Capabilities: Propulsive Entry, Descent, and Landing of a Capsule Form Vehicle

This paper describes a critical portion of the work that has been done at NASA, Ames Research Center regarding the use of the commercially developed Dragon capsule as a delivery vehicle for the elements of a high priority Mars Sample Return mission. The objective of the investigation was to determine entry and landed mass capabilities that cover anticipated mission conditions. The "Red Dragon", Mars configuration, uses supersonic retro-propulsion, with no required parachute system, to perform Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) maneuvers. The propulsive system proposed for use is the same system that will perform an abort, if necessary, for a human rated version of the Dragon capsule. Standard trajectory analysis tools are applied to publically available information about Dragon and other legacy capsule forms in order to perform the investigation. Trajectory simulation parameters include entry velocity, flight path angle, lift to drag Ratio (L/D), landing site elevation, atmosphere density, and total entry mass, in addition engineering assumptions for the performance of the propulsion system are stated. Mass estimates for major elements of the overall proposed architecture are coupled to this EDL analysis to close the overall architecture. Three synodic launch opportunities, beginning with the 2022 opportunity, define the arrival conditions. Results state the relations between the analysis parameters as well as sensitivities to those parameters. The EDL performance envelope includes landing altitudes between 0 and -4 km referenced to the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter datum as well as minimum and maximum atmosphere density. Total entry masses between 7 and 10 mt are considered with architecture closure occurring between 9.0 and 10 mt. Propellant mass fractions for each major phase of the EDL - Entry, Terminal Descent, and Hazard Avoidance - have been derived. An assessment of the effect of the entry conditions on the Thermal Protection System (TPS) currently in use for Dragon missions shows no significant stressors. A useful payload mass of 2.0 mt is provided and includes mass and grow allowance for a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), Earth Return Vehicle (ERV), and mission unique equipment. The useful payload supports an architecture that receives a sample from another surface asset and sends it directly back to Earth for recovery in a high Earth orbit. The work shows that emerging commercial capabilities as well as previously studied EDL methodologies can be used to efficiently support an important planetary science objective. The work also has applications for human exploration missions that will also use propulsive EDL techniques

EDL↗

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed using a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify deficiencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the measured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the definition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares fit of the predicted to the measured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new definition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed us- ing a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify de ciencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the mea- sured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the de nition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares t of the predicted to the mea- sured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new de nition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Modeling and Simulation of a Tethered Harpoon for Comet Sampling

This paper describes the development of a dynamic model and simulation results of a tethered harpoon for comet sampling. This model and simulation was done in order to carry out an initial sensitivity analysis for key design parameters of the tethered system. The harpoon would contain a canister which would collect a sample of soil from a cometary surface. Both a spring ejected canister and a tethered canister are considered. To arrive in close proximity of the spacecraft at the end of its trajectory so it could be captured, the free-flying canister would need to be ejected at the right time and with the proper impulse, while the tethered canister must be recovered by properly retrieving the tether at a rate that would avoid an excessive amplitude of oscillatory behavior during the retrieval. The paper describes the model of the tether dynamics and harpoon penetration physics. The simulations indicate that, without the tether, the canister would still reach the spacecraft for collection, that the tether retrieval of the canister would be achievable with reasonable fuel consumption, and that the canister amplitude upon retrieval would be insensitive to variations in vertical velocity dispersion.

small body↗

Sensitivity of Simulated Radiative Emission from Nitrogen Flows to Chemical Parameters

Numerical models of hypersonic flows rely on chemistry data inferred from experiments and quantum calculations. Experiments from NASA's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) measure the spectral emission of strong shocks in pure nitrogen flows. These spectral profiles are only approximately captured by numerical simulations. To address these discrepancies, one wishes to calibrate some of the chemical parameters to better match experiment. Because there are hundreds of parameters in the numerical model, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the entire chemistry database to determine which parameters are most important to analyze in the future. In order to perform this work it was necessary to generate a consistent chemical database that interfaced with both the CFD and line-by-line radiation solver. Using Monte Carlo methods, the total Sobol index was calculated for important parameters. Twenty parameters were identified as important across the nitrogen system. However, it was noted that in some spectral regions, the parametric uncertainty was unable to bound EAST measurements. Further improvements could be made by increasing the parameter uncertainties or addressing other sources of modeling error.

Kaelan B Hansson↗

Sensitivity of Simulated Radiative Emission from Nitrogen Flows to Chemical Parameters

Numerical models of hypersonic flows rely on chemistry data inferred from experiments and quantum calculations. Experiments from NASA's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) measure the spectral emission of strong shocks in pure nitrogen flows. These spectral profiles are only approximately captured by numerical simulations. To address these discrepancies, one wishes to calibrate some of the chemical parameters to better match experiment. Because there are hundreds of parameters in the numerical model, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the entire chemistry database to determine which parameters are most important to analyze in the future. In order to perform this work it was necessary to generate a consistent chemical database that interfaced with both the CFD and line-by-line radiation solver. Using Monte Carlo methods, the total Sobol index was calculated for important parameters. Twenty parameters were identified as important across the nitrogen system. However, it was noted that in some spectral regions, the parametric uncertainty was unable to bound EAST measurements. Further improvements could be made by increasing the parameter uncertainties or addressing other sources of modeling error.

Kaelan Hansson↗

Derivatives of buckling loads and vibration frequencies with respect to stiffness and initial strain parameters

A uniform variational approach to sensitivity analysis of vibration frequencies and bifurcation loads of nonlinear structures is developed. Two methods of calculating the sensitivities of bifurcation buckling loads and vibration frequencies of nonlinear structures, with respect to stiffness and initial strain parameters, are presented. A direct method requires calculation of derivatives of the prebuckling state with respect to these parameters. An adjoint method bypasses the need for these derivatives by using instead the strain field associated with the second-order postbuckling state. An operator notation is used and the derivation is based on the principle of virtual work. The derivative computations are easily implemented in structural analysis programs. This is demonstrated by examples using a general purpose, finite element program and a shell-of-revolution program.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "A Hydrogeophysical Framework to Assess Infiltration During a Simulated Ecosystem-Scale Flooding Experiment”

This package contains the data and scripts used in "A hydrogeophysical framework to assess infiltration during a simulated ecosystem-scale flooding experiment" (Adebayo et al., 2023). The Geophysics folder contains two subfolders containing Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) datasets acquired between August 23 and August 26, 2021. The GPR subfolder contains raw data (Tempest_Project.GPZ) and processed results using the Sensors and Software EKKO Project software. The ERI subfolder contains two additional subfolders named Static and Timelapse. The Static subfolder contains background resistivity datasets acquired before infiltration, both raw and inverted results using the ResIpy code. The Timelapse subfolder contains repeated resistivity datasets acquired during infiltration on two profiles, along with raw and inverted results using the ResIpy code. The Flow model folder contains ATS model simulation files. The Geophysics-informed subfolder contains simulation datasets for two profiles generated using information from the geophysics data. The National_database-informed subfolder contains simulation datasets for two profiles generated using information from a national soil database. Each subfolder contains initial simulation results, multiple ensembles, and final simulation files. The Sensitivity_analysis folder contains the observation files exported from the flow model, notebooks used in running the code, and sensitivity analysis results showing the sensitivity of different parameters over a 48-hour period. We used mutual information-based global sensitivity analysis for the sensitivity analysis, following Jiang et al., 2022. This study shows a novel approach that integrates geophysical data with hydrological modeling to understand subsurface flow during coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the sensitivity of land-atmosphere coupling strength to boundary and surface layer parameters in the WRF model over Amazon

Modeling tools can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations, but subject to uncertainties associated with parameters in model physical parameterizations. Different sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches may lead to different conclusions about the underlying sensitivities. In this study, we quantify simulation uncertainties related to parameter perturbations, and use different approaches to conduct parameter SA on the WRF model pertaining to L-A coupling strength for simulations over the Amazon region. A total of twenty parameters from the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the revised MM5 surface layer (SL) schemes were selected in this analysis. Three different SA methods, the Morris One-at-A-Time (MOAT) method, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, and the Sobol’ method, were employed to analyze seven WRF-simulated variables and five L-A coupling metrics. Results show that 1) parameter perturbations cause large simulation uncertainties which are comparable to those in the observations; 2) three different SA methods give consistent L-A coupling strength outcomes; 3) six out of the twenty parameters contribute 80%–95% of the total variance in the metrics analyzed, and first-order effects dominate over interaction effects; 4) the twelve variables/metrics of interest show similar sensitivity patterns to the selected parameters, which is consistent across all the methods used. Physical mechanisms for how the sensitive parameters act in determining the L-A coupling strength and associated variables also are illustrated. Our results will help quantifying L-A coupling strength and establishing a basis for parameter calibration over the Amazon region.

Wang, Chen↗

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Impact of system parameters and geospatial variables on the reliability of residential systems with PV and energy storage

A reliable power supply is the foundation of modern society, enabling technologies used to function within a society. Residential systems are places where the end users directly consume power, enabling technologies to sustain life. With the emergence of behind-the-meter resources, the end-users have some control over power supply reliability. The intermittency and variability of these resources impact residential system reliability. In this work, we study the reliability performance of a grid-supplemented residential system with behind-the-meter Distributed Energy Resources(DER) subject to various system parameters and geospatial variables. We propose a multistate reliability model for the behind-the-meter microinverter-based Photo Voltaic (PV) system and integrated inverter-based energy storage (ES) system. A sequential Monte Carlo method is then presented to evaluate the reliability indices for the residential system with behind-the-meter DERs as the main supply and the grid as the backup. The sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the reliability performance of the residential model at the top 100 populous counties of the United States, where actual load and solar irradiance data at the counties is used. In the analysis, the sensitivity of indices to system parameters such as DER size and the sensitivity of the indices to climate zone and gross horizontal irradiation (GHI), which affects the load conditions and the PV output of the residential system, is performed. The analysis results show that the system parameters and the geospatial variables significantly impact the residential system’s reliability. The insights from this analysis will be of immense value to the distribution system planners to provide zone-specific guidelines for DER system sizing and toward the evolution of utility business models. Finally, the methodology developed can be used to extend the analysis to other locations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗