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DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibration of V-Notch and Compound Weirs for Subsurface Drainage Water Level Control Structures

Highlights Accurate discharge estimation is important when evaluating edge-of-field conservation practices. V-notch weir equations were developed for three sizes of subsurface drainage water level control structures. Compound weir equations were developed for subsurface drainage water level control structures. The compound weir equation accurately estimates discharge for flows within and overtopping the V-notch. Abstract.Numerous edge-of-field conservation practices use subsurface drainage water level control structures to monitor water levels and estimate discharge. In a control structure, procedures for calculating discharge when flow depth (head) exceeds the V-notch depth and overflows in the rectangular portion of the compound weir (CW) are ambiguous. In this study, we developed calibration equations for V-notch weirs in Agri Drain inline water level control structures of different sizes for flows within the V-notch and overtopping flow events. The discharge equation for overtopping events (Q CW , L s -1 ) was determined as: Q CW = a 1 (h b1 -h 1 b1 )+a 2 (W e -W v )h 1 b2 , where h and h 1 are heads above vertex/bottom and top of V-notch (cm), respectively, W is the effective crest width of rectangular weir (cm), W v is the top width of V-notch (cm), a 1 and b 1 are parameters for V-notch weir obtained by calibration, and a 2 and b 2 are calibration parameters for rectangular weir obtained from literature. Results were compared with a weir equation available in the literature (Q V+R ), which combines a V-notch equation with a head equal to V-depth and a rectangular weir equation for flow above V-depth. Discharge at overflow was estimated with high accuracy with Q CW, whereas Q V+R underestimated discharge (e.g., PBIAS of 0.67% vs. 17.82% for a 15.2 cm structure). An example using Q V+R resulted in a 14% lower annual estimation of nitrate-N load diverted to a saturated buffer than Q CW due to underestimation of drainage discharge during overflow events. Results suggest that the developed equation (Q CW ) accurately estimates discharge and will thus improve the estimated N load compared to Q V+R . Keywords: Compound weir, Flow monitoring, Subsurface drainage, V-notch weir, Water level control structure, Weir calibration.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intrinsic quality factor extraction of multi-port cavity with arbitrary coupling

In this work, we derived S-parameter based expressions for the intrinsic quality factor of an arbitrary coupled multiport microwave cavity and a non-ideal test fixture. Practical accuracy limitations of the obtained expressions specifically for superconducting accelerator cavities were evaluated both analytically and with the simulation software. The resulting formulas can be used to extract the intrinsic quality factor of normal-conducting and superconducting cavities directly from the calibrated S-parameter measurements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

Cheng, Yanyan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Calibration of Expensive Simulation Models

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

AWSD Reactive Burn Model for the HMX‐Based High Explosive LX‐04

An Arrhenius–Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive burn model is applied to describe shock initiation and detonation properties of the HMX-based high explosive LX-04. The parameters in the model are calibrated to data from multiple sources. The thermodynamic equations of state used in the model are calibrated to a combination of thermochemical calculations for HMX and LX-04 as well as experimentally-measured cylinder expansion results for LX-04. The kinetic parameters are calibrated to velocity data from gas gun experiments performed using EDC-32—a high explosive with the same chemical composition as LX-04 but different structural properties, and scaled rate stick data for PBX 9012. The AWSD model is shown to accurately describe the shock initiation and propagation of LX-04. Very good agreement is observed between the available experimental data and the AWSD model output. The presented results constitute an accurate LX-04 reactive burn model for use in engineering-scale models and simulations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning assisted modeling of mixing timescale for LES/PDF of high-Karlovitz turbulent premixed combustion

Accurate modeling of mixing in the transported probability density function (PDF) method remains a great challenge, especially for turbulent premixed combustion under extreme conditions such as high Karlovitz number Ka. Recently, a power-law based mixing timescale model was developed for the large-eddy simulations (LES)/PDF modeling of high-Ka number turbulent premixed flames. It is found in this work that the power-law mixing timescale model is highly sensitive to the model parameters. It is thus critically needed to develop accurate calibration of these model parameters. The empirical specification of the model parameters developed in Zhang et. al. is found to be inadequate for accurate modeling of the mixing timescale. Here, machine learning is introduced as an attractive alternative in this work for the specification of the model parameters. A high-Ka number DNS jet flame is used as the training and validation of the machine learning models. The choices of the input parameters are discussed and compared for the machine learning models. The effect of differential molecular diffusion on mixing is examined by including the effect of the Lewis number in the training of the machine learning models. The performance of different machine learning algorithms is compared for the specification of the mixing model parameters. Overall, excellent performance of the machine learning models is observed for assisting the mixing modeling. The feasibility, interpretability, applicability, generality, and portability of using machine learning are discussed in general to provide a perspective on applying data-driven machine learning for turbulent combustion modeling studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling localized Noah-MP-Crop model with the WRF model improved dynamic crop growth simulation across Northeast China

Croplands play a critical role in regulating the energy and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere. However, the interactions between cropland and climate are usually poorly represented due to a lack of detailed representation in crop types and field management. Here, we coupled the Noah-MP-Crop model with the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore and evaluate the crop growth dynamics in response to climate variations across Northeast China. The default parameters of the crop model were not exactly suitable for the agricultural ecosystems in Northeast China. The detailed cropland distribution, and crop phenology parameters including growing degree days (GDD) and planting (harvesting) date were first created using multi-source remote sensing products and reanalysis data, and was then successfully used to simulate the growth and yield for corn and soybean and associated energy exchanges. We also optimized and calibrated other crop parameters using the time-series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface products. The modified crop model substantially improved the simulation of crop growth, plant physiology, and biomass accumulation for both corn and soybean. Coupling the localized dynamic crop model into the WRF led to considerable decreases in the simulated mean-absolute-errors (MAEs) and biases of the leaf area index, evapotranspiration, and gross primary production compared with the MODIS observed values. Compared with the statistical yield from each province, the modified crop model underestimated the corn yield from 11.1% to 48.6%, whereas overestimated the soybean yield from 16.5% to 162.6%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Variational inference of effective range parameters for 3 He− 4 He scattering

We use two different methods, Monte Carlo sampling and variational inference (VI), to perform a Bayesian calibration of the effective-range parameters in 3 He– 4 He elastic scattering. The parameters are calibrated to data from a recent set of 3 He– 4 He elastic scattering differential cross section measurements. Analysis of these data for E lab ≤ 4.3 MeV yields a unimodal posterior for which both methods obtain the same structure. However, the effective-range expansion amplitude does not account for the 7/2 − state of 7 Be so, even after calibration, the description of data at the upper end of this energy range is poor. The data up to E lab = 2.6 MeV can be well described, but calibration to this lower-energy subset of the data yields a bimodal posterior. After adapting VI to treat such a multi-modal posterior we find good agreement between the VI results and those obtained with parallel-tempered Monte Carlo sampling.

effective field theory↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Ti–6Al–4V using crystal plasticity, calibrated with multi-scale experiments, to understand the effect of the orientation and morphology of the α and β phases on time dependent cyclic loading

Classically, crystal plasticity modeling has used a range of constitutive equations, in which the incorporation of additional physics-based relationships typically results in additional model parameters. These additional parameters need to be reliably calibrated, which often necessitates the use of a range of experimental data acquired at multiple length scales. In this work, a crystal plasticity based finite element (CPFE) model for a dual-phase Titanium alloy, Ti–6Al–4V, is developed. The α and β phases of the microstructure are explicitly modeled. The model is calibrated using a systematic optimization routine and experimental data that consist of macroscopic stress-strain curves coupled with lattice strains on different crystallographic planes for the two phases. These experimental data were obtained from in situ high energy X-ray diffraction experiments for multiple material pedigrees, with varying crystallographic orientation distribution and β volume fractions. Depending on the thermomechanical-processing route and the heat treatment used to manufacture the alloy, Ti–6Al–4V can exist in a wide number of microstructural forms, which often results in the α and β phases either having well aligned slip systems (following the Burgers orientation relationship (BOR)) or possessing no alignment of the slip systems across the interphase boundary (not following the BOR). In this study, the fully-calibrated CPFE model is used to gain a comprehensive understanding of the deformation behavior of Ti–6Al–4V, specifically, the effect of microstructures that follow the BOR (or not) on time-dependent cyclic loading (including the effects of dwell hold times).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A review of thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of coupled processes in fractured rock: From continuum to discontinuum perspective

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications. Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling. This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions. By comparing various models, one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions, particularly those related to the conceptual models. The review explores how these methodologies have significantly enhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production, and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience. The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specific conditions of applications. The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties, nonlinear THM coupled processes, scale dependence, and computational limitations in representing field scale fractures are discussed. Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization, mathematical modeling, selection of numerical solution strategies, implementation, and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflect the nuanced complexities of geological phenomena. Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical field of study.

Coupling scheme↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗