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NASA NTRS1997

Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

An important put of building mathematical models based on measured date is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. An expression is developed for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates when the output residuals are colored. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle. As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, whereas conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Note About HARP's State Trimming Method

This short note provides some additional insight into how the HARP program works. In some cases, it is possible for HARP to tdm away too many states and obtain an optimistic result. The HARP Version 7.0 manual warns the user that 'Unlike the ALL model, the SAME model can automatically drop failure modes for certain system models. The user is cautioned to insure that no important failure modes are dropped; otherwise, a non-conservative result can be given.' This note provides an example of where this occurs and a pointer to further documentation that gives a means of bounding the error associated with trimming these states.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

NASA NTRS1963

Performance Capability of Single-Cavity Vortex Gaseous Nuclear Rockets

An analysis was made to determine the maximum powerplant thrust-to-weight ratio possible with a single-cavity vortex gaseous reactor in which all the hydrogen propellant must diffuse through a fuel-rich region. An assumed radial temperature profile was used to represent conduction, convection, and radiation heat-transfer effects. The effect of hydrogen property changes due to dissociation and ionization was taken into account in a hydrodynamic computer program. It is shown that, even for extremely optimistic assumptions of reactor criticality and operating conditions, such a system is limited to reactor thrust-to-weight ratios of about 1.2 x 10(exp -3) for laminar flow. For turbulent flow, the maximum thrust-to-weight ratio is less than 10(exp -3). These low thrusts result from the fact that the hydrogen flow rate is limited by the diffusion process. The performance of a gas-core system with a specific impulse of 3000 seconds and a powerplant thrust-to-weight ratio of 10(exp -2) is shown to be equivalent to that of a 1000-second advanced solid-core system. It is therefore concluded that a single-cavity vortex gaseous reactor in which all the hydrogen must diffuse through the nuclear fuel is a low-thrust device and offers no improvement over a solid-core nuclear-rocket engine. To achieve higher thrust, additional hydrogen flow must be introduced in such a manner that it will by-pass the nuclear fuel. Obviously, such flow must be heated by thermal radiation. An illustrative model of a single-cavity vortex system employing supplementary flow of hydrogen through the core region is briefly examined. Such a system appears capable of thrust-to-weight ratios of approximately 1 to 10. For a high-impulse engine, this capability would be a considerable improvement over solid-core performance. Limits imposed by thermal radiation heat transfer to cavity walls are acknowledged but not evaluated. Alternate vortex concepts that employ many parallel vortices to achieve higher hydrogen flow rates offer the possibility of sufficiently high thrust-to-weight ratios, if they are not limited by short thermal-radiation path lengths.

Ragsdale, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The Next Generation Space Telescope

In Space Science in the Twenty-First Century, the Space Science Board of the National Research Council identified high-resolution-interferometry and high-throughput instruments as the imperative new initiatives for NASA in astronomy for the two decades spanning 1995 to 2015. In the optical range, the study recommended an 8 to 16-meter space telescope, destined to be the successor of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and to complement the ground-based 8 to 10-meter-class telescopes presently under construction. It might seem too early to start planning for a successor to HST. In fact, we are late. The lead time for such major missions is typically 25 years, and HST has been in the making even longer with its inception dating back to the early 1960s. The maturity of space technology and a more substantial technological base may lead to a shorter time scale for the development of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). Optimistically, one could therefore anticipate that NGST be flown as early as 2010. On the other hand, the planned lifetime of HST is 15 years. So, even under the best circumstances, there will be a five year gap between the end of HST and the start of NGST. The purpose of this first workshop dedicated to NGST was to survey its scientific potential and technical challenges. The three-day meeting brought together 130 astronomers and engineers from government, industry and universities. Participants explored the technologies needed for building and operating the observatory, reviewed the current status and future prospects for astronomical instrumentation, and discussed the launch and space support capabilities likely to be available in the next decade. To focus discussion, the invited speakers were asked to base their presentations on two nominal concepts, a 10-meter telescope in space in high earth orbit, and a 16-meter telescope on the moon. The workshop closed with a panel discussion focused mainly on the scientific case, siting, and the programmatic approach needed to bring NGST into being. The essential points of this panel discussion have been incorporated into a series of recommendations that represent the conclusions of the workshop. Speakers were asked to provide manuscripts of their presentation. Those received were reproduced here with only minor editorial changes. The few missing papers have been replaced by the presentation viewgraphs. The discussion that follows each speaker's paper was derived from the question and answer sheets, or if unavailable, from the tapes of the meeting. In the latter case, the editors have made every effort to faithfully represent the discussion.

Bely, Pierre-Yves↗

NASA NTRS2001

Physical Limitations of Nuclear Propulsion for Earth to Orbit

An assessment of current nuclear propulsion technology for application in Earth to Orbit (ETO) missions has been performed. It can be shown that current nuclear thermal rocket motors are not sufficient to provide single stage performance as has been stated by previous studies. Further, when taking a systems level approach, it can be shown that NTRs do not compete well with chemical engines where thrust to weight ratios of greater than I are necessary, except possibly for the hybrid chemical/nuclear LANTR (LOX Augmented Nuclear Thermal Rocket) engine. Also, the ETO mission requires high power reactors and consequently large shielding weights compared to NTR space missions where shadow shielding can be used. In the assessment, a quick look at the conceptual ASPEN vehicle proposed in 1962 in provided. Optimistic NTR designs are considered in the assessment as well as discussion on other conceptual nuclear propulsion systems that have been proposed for ETO. Also, a quick look at the turbulent, convective heat transfer relationships that restrict the exchange of nuclear energy to thermal energy in the working fluid and consequently drive the reactor mass is included.

Blevins, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Correlation of Upper-Atmospheric Be-7 With Solar Energetic Particle Events

Surprisingly large concentrations of radioactive Be-7 have been found in the upper atmosphere at levels of one to three orders of magnitude greater than observed in the stratosphere. This phenomenon was originally observed on the LDEF satellite which was recovered in January 1990 following a period of extremely high solar activity in the fall of 1989. We report on follow-up measurements on the Russian COSMOS and RESURS F1 spacecraft during the period of 1996 to 1999 which was a period of minimal to moderate solar activity. The Be-7 concentrations observed on these flights were down substantially from the LDEF observations but were still one to two orders of magnitude higher than stratospheric levels. A significant correlation is observed between the Be-7 activity and the combined fluence of solar energetic protons (SEP) and galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons. The Be-7 activity is not correlated with overall solar activity as represented by the solar x-ray flux. We discuss possible mechanisms for the solar proton correlation. However, it is likely that the Be-7 is ionized and it is unknown how this will affect the calculations. There were several large solar flares in the fall of 1989 that produced extraordinarily intense solar particle events at the Earth and record geophysical disturbances. These may have acted to increase production of Be-7 from spallation in the stratosphere and also to enhance transport to higher altitudes from the effects of heating and expansion of the upper atmosphere. Be-7 in the upper atmosphere may also have been produced directly at the Sun. Be-7 and Li-7 are produced in solar flares when accelerated alpha-particles fuse with He-4 in the solar atmosphere. Under optimistic assumptions for Sun to Earth transport and subsequent insertion into low Earth orbit, a Be-7 density of about 10(exp -7) atom/cubic cm at 310 km is estimated.

Phillips, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Metallic Thermal Protection System Technology Development: Concepts, Requirements and Assessment Overview

A technology development program was conducted to evolve an earlier metallic thermal protection system (TPS) panel design, with the goals of: improving operations features, increasing adaptability (ease of attaching to a variety of tank shapes and structural concepts), and reducing weight. The resulting Adaptable Robust Metallic Operable Reusable (ARMOR) TPS system incorporates a high degree of design flexibility (allowing weight and operability to be traded and balanced) and can also be easily integrated with a large variety of tank shapes, airframe structural arrangements and airframe structure/material concepts. An initial attempt has been made to establish a set of performance based TPS design requirements. A set of general (FARtype) requirements have been proposed, focusing on defining categories that must be included for a comprehensive design. Load cases required for TPS design must reflect the full flight envelope, including a comprehensive set of limit loads, However, including additional loads. such as ascent abort trajectories, as ultimate load cases, and on-orbit debris/micro-meteoroid hypervelocity impact, as one of the discrete -source -damage load cases, will have a significant impact on system design and resulting performance, reliability and operability. Although these load cases have not been established, they are of paramount importance for reusable vehicles, and until properly included, all sizing results and assessments of reliability and operability must be considered optimistic at a minimum.

Dorsey, John T.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Effects of Special Use Airspace on Economic Benefits of Direct Flights

A methodology for estimating the economic effects of Special Use Airspace (SUA) on direct route flights is presented in this paper. The methodology is based on evaluating operating costs of aircraft and analyzing the different ground-track distances traveled by flights under different air traffic scenarios. Using this methodology the following objectives are evaluated: optimistic bias of studies that assume accessible SUAs the maximum economic benefit of dynamic use of SUAs and the marginal economic benefit of the dynamic use of individual SUAs.

Datta, Koushik↗

NASA NTRS2000

Mechanisms of Protonic Nonvolatile Memory Device

A nonvolatile memory device based on protonic transport in oxides has been proposed. The mobile H+ ions are introduced into the SiO2 layer by annealing Si/SiO2/Si structures in H2 at temperatures greater than 500 deg C. This effect has only been observed for confined oxides that have been annealed at greater than or equal to 1100 C prior to the hydrogenation anneal. This includes buried oxides such as Unibond and SIMOX as well as thermal oxides annealed with a polysilicon cap. An applied field moves the charge within the oxide and the charge stops moving when the field is removed. In a memory device, the hydrogen-annealed oxide is the gate oxide and the position of the mobile charge is sensed by the shift of the I-V curve. Much is still not understood about the motion of the charge across the buried oxide. Previous work has assumed that H+ transport and the time it takes to traverse the oxide is governed by interactions within the bulk of the oxide. Based on parameters that affect the transport time, we conclude that H+ trapping and detrapping at the Si/SiO2 interface are more important than H+ interactions within the oxide bulk. These parameters include the applied field, the H+ concentration and the oxide thickness. One consequence is that projections of device write-time based on the previous assumptions of H+ transport mechanisms may be overly optimistic.

P J Macfarlane↗

NASA NTRS2003

Combining Static Analysis and Model Checking for Software Analysis

We present an iterative technique in which model checking and static analysis are combined to verify large software systems. The role of the static analysis is to compute partial order information which the model checker uses to reduce the state space. During exploration, the model checker also computes aliasing information that it gives to the static analyzer which can then refine its analysis. The result of this refined analysis is then fed back to the model checker which updates its partial order reduction. At each step of this iterative process, the static analysis computes optimistic information which results in an unsafe reduction of the state space. However we show that the process converges to a fired point at which time the partial order information is safe and the whole state space is explored.

Brat, Guillaume↗

NASA NTRS2004

Solving Large Problems Quickly: Progress in 2001-2003

This document describes the progress we have made and the lessons we have learned in 2001 through 2003 under the NASA grant entitled "Solving Important Problems Faster". The long-term goal of this research is to accelerate large, irregular scientific applications which have enormous data sets and which are difficult to parallelize. To accomplish this goal, we are exploring two complementary techniques: (i) using compiler-inserted prefetching to automatically hide the I/O latency of accessing these large data sets from disk; and (ii) using thread-level data speculation to enable the optimistic parallelization of applications despite uncertainty as to whether data dependences exist between the resulting threads which would normally make them unsafe to execute in parallel. Overall, we made significant progress in 2001 through 2003, and the project has gone well.

Mowry, Todd C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

On the Directional Dependence and Null Space Freedom in Uncertainty Bound Identification

In previous work, the determination of uncertainty models via minimum norm model validation is based on a single set of input and output measurement data. Since uncertainty bounds at each frequency is directionally dependent for multivariable systems, this will lead to optimistic uncertainty levels. In addition, the design freedom in the uncertainty model has not been utilized to further reduce uncertainty levels. The above issues are addressed by formulating a min- max problem. An analytical solution to the min-max problem is given to within a generalized eigenvalue problem, thus avoiding a direct numerical approach. This result will lead to less conservative and more realistic uncertainty models for use in robust control.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Saturn/Titan Rendezvous: A Solar-Sail Aerocapture Mission

A low-mass Titan orbiter is proposed that uses conservative or optimistic solar sails for all post-Earth-escape propulsion. After accelerating the probe onto a trans-Saturn trajectory, the sail is used parachute style for Saturn capture during a pass through Saturn's outer atmosphere. If the apoapsis of the Saturn-capture orbit is appropriate, the aerocapture maneuver can later be repeated at Titan so that the spacecraft becomes a satellite of Titan. An isodensity-atmosphere model is applied to screen aerocapture trajectories. Huygens/Cassini should greatly reduce uncertainties regarding the upper atmospheres of Saturn and Titan.

Matloff, Gregory L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the ICESat Mission: Science Measurement Performance since Launch

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System is the primary space lidar on NASA's ICESat mission. Since launch in January 2003 GLAS has produced about 544 million measurements of the Earth's surface and atmosphere. It has made global measurements of the Earth's icesheets, land topography and atmosphere with unprecedented vertical resolution and accuracy. GLAS was first activated for science measurements in February 2003. Since then its operation and performance has confirmed many pre-launch expectations and exceed a few of the most optimistic expectations in vertical resolution. However GLAS also suffered an unexpected failure of its first laser, and the GLAS measurements have yielded some surprises in other areas. The talk will give a post launch assessment of the science measurement performance of the GLAS instrument, and compare the science measurements and engineering operation to pre-launch expectations. It also will address some of what has been learned from the GLAS operations and data, which may benefit future space lidar.

Sun, Xiao-Li↗

NASA NTRS2004

ASK Magazine

In this issue, ASK writers explore ways to maintain their balance in their field of Project Management, and even what happens when they don't. From his own experiences. Colby Africa learned that pushing too hard can take a personal toll, even though his project was a success in the end. He looked back and asked himself. At what personal cost? Sometimes one of the most simple - and the most human way - of keeping oneself grounded is not to lose your sense of humor. Ray Morgan's story about a test flight gone bad tells how the sound of their model crashing to the ground was followed by the test team's hysterical laughter. The story, you will see, is much deeper. But the message in the example? Sometimes for no fault of our own. things just don t go as planned. One way of dealing with it is to be able to laugh at ourselves. Of course. a setback itself is not to be taken lightly, but a leader capable of lightening the moment is more likely to set a positive tone for the try, try again. Staying optimistic is important for team morale. specifically when a project is dealt a huge downsizing blow. After his project was cut significantly, Tom Sutliff was able to show his team that all was not lost and to help them focus on the fact that they still had a job to do. He had to balance the new project requirements with the fact that his team had been committed to the original prcject and would be personally affected. He stood back, got a new perspective. and upheld the positivity needed to lead them effectively. Even when you keep your chin up and work to the best of your ability, things still go wrong. It's human nature. People train for years to make it to the Olympics and blow their shot during one crucial second in the spotlight. For Marty Davis, his crucial second was when the contractor dropped his 3,000 pound spacecraft. Rather than point the finger at those around him. Marty stood up like a true leader and acknowledged what he could do better if ever in this situation again.

Laufer, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2005

Low-Cost Innovation in Spaceflight: The Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Shoemaker Mission

On a spring day in 1996, at their research center in the Maryland countryside, representatives from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) presented Administrator Daniel S. Goldin of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with a check for $3.6 million. 1 Two and a half years earlier, APL officials had agreed to develop a spacecraft capable of conducting an asteroid rendezvous and to do so for slightly more than $122 million. This was a remarkably low sum for a spacecraft due to conduct a planetaryclass mission. By contrast, the Mars Observer spacecraft launched in 1992 for an orbital rendezvous with the red planet had cost $479 million to develop, while the upcoming Cassini mission to Saturn required a spacecraft whose total cost was approaching $1.4 billion. In an Agency accustomed to cost overruns on major missions, the promise to build a planetary-class spacecraft for about $100 million seemed excessively optimistic.

McCurdy, Howard E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Palmer Quest: A Feasible Nuclear Fission "Vision Mission" to the Mars Polar Caps

We are engaged in a NASA Vision Mission study, called Palmer Quest after the American Antarctic explorer Nathaniel Palmer, to assess the presence of life and evaluate the habitability of the basal domain of the Mars polar caps. We address this goal through four objectives: 1. Determine the presence of amino acids, nutrients, and geochemical heterogeneity in the ice sheet. 2. Quantify and characterize the provenance of the amino acids in Mars ice. 3. Assess the stratification of outcropped units for indications of habitable zones. 4. Determine the accumulation of ice, mineralogic material, and amino acids in Mars ice caps over the present epoch. Because of the defined scientific goal for the vision mission, the Palmer Quest focus is astrobiological; however, the results of the study make us optimistic that aggressive multi-platform in-situ missions that address a wide range of objectives, such as climate change, can be supported by variations of the approach used on this mission. Mission Overview: The Palmer Quest baseline

Carsey, F. D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

You Can't Get There From Here! Problems and Potential Solutions in Developing New Classes of Complex Systems

The explosion of capabilities and new products within the sphere of Information Technology (IT) has fostered widespread, overly optimistic opinions regarding the industry, based on common but unjustified assumptions of quality and correctness of software. These assumptions are encouraged by software producers and vendors, who at this late date have not succeeded in finding a way to overcome the lack of an automated, mathematically sound way to develop correct systems from requirements. NASA faces this dilemma as it envisages advanced mission concepts that involve large swarms of small spacecraft that will engage cooperatively to acheve science goals. Such missions entail levels of complexity that beg for new methods for system development far beyond today's methods, which are inadequate for ensuring correct behavior of large numbers of interacting intelligent mission elements. New system development techniques recently devised through NASA-led research will offer some innovative approaches to achieving correctness in complex system development, including autonomous swarm missions that exhibit emergent behavior, as well as general software products created by the computing industry.

Hinchey, Michael G.↗