Observing and modeling the upper ocean in Monterey Bay: a test-bed for NEPTUNE
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ocean models upper ocean observations↗
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Modeling and Observations of Outlet Canyons from Lake Overflow Floods on Early Mars
Numerous observations from both orbital remote sensing [1-3] and Mars Curiosity [4] suggest that lakes were once part of the martian landscape. From orbital data, one of the key lines of evidence for past paleolakes is the existence of several hundred valley network-fed basins – usually craters – that have outlet valleys that remain perched above their floors. The existence of outlets requires that water ponded to the point that it overflowed confining topography. Beyond recognizing these landforms, there has been only limited work reconstructing the morphometry, formative hydrology, and incision history for these outlets. Here, we describe our recently published observations of outlets and ongoing numerical modeling looking at these factors.
Fassett, Caleb I.↗
Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.
Oman, L. D.↗
Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling
The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.
Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
Improving parameterization of ice microphysical processes in Arctic clouds using a synergistic modeling and observational approach (Final Report)
The primary goals of the project were to: 1) Improve the fundamental quantitative models of ice growth processes using ARM radar observations. 2) Better understand the growth of ice particle populations through vapor deposition, riming, and aggregation in Arctic clouds using a new particle-property microphysical model. 3) Robustly estimate and constrain key unknown model parameters using ARM radar observations combined with the particle-property model to develop an improved parameterization of ice growth processes for traditional bulk parameterizations used in cloud and climate models.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A Unified SHOC-MF Boundary Layer Parameterization in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model
We present results from a novel extension of the boundary layer parameterization in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. An Eddy Diffusivity-Mass Flux (EDMF) multi-plume updraft scheme was previously implemented in GEOS. Here we replace the K-profile eddy diffusivity scheme of Lock et. al. (2000) with the Simplified Higher Order Closure (SHOC; Bogenschutz and Krueger, 2013). The scheme prognoses turbulent kinetic energy, and derives buoyancy flux, cloud fraction and condensate from a trivariate double-gaussian joint PDF. The original SHOC scheme is modified in two significant respects: (i) contributions from the EDMF updrafts are included in estimates of all higher order moments used to determine the PDF; and (ii) the second and third moments of total water are made prognostic variables, with source terms associated with EDMF updrafts. The predicted higher order moments as well as updraft and environmental properties are compared with large eddy simulations in several case studies. Results indicate that many higher order moments are underestimated when the mass flux contribution is neglected.
Nathan Arnold↗
A Unified SHOC-MF Boundary Layer Parameterization in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model
We present results from a novel extension of the boundary layer parameterization in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. An Eddy Diffusivity-Mass Flux (EDMF) multi-plume updraft scheme was previously implemented in GEOS. Here we replace the K-profile eddy diffusivity scheme of Lock et. al. (2000) with the Simplified Higher Order Closure (SHOC; Bogenschutz and Krueger, 2013). The scheme prognoses turbulent kinetic energy, and derives buoyancy flux, cloud fraction and condensate from a trivariate double-gaussian joint PDF. The original SHOC scheme is modified in two significant respects: (i) contributions from the EDMF updrafts are included in estimates of all higher order moments used to determine the PDF; and (ii) the second and third moments of total water are made prognostic variables, with source terms associated with EDMF updrafts. The predicted higher order moments as well as updraft and environmental properties are compared with large eddy simulations in several case studies. Results indicate that many higher order moments are underestimated when the mass flux contribution is neglected.
Nathan Arnold↗
Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency and recovery dynamics during flash droughts: insights from observations and model simulations
Flash droughts (FD), rapidly emerging in a warming future, disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and water security. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to actual evapotranspiration (AET), balances carbon assimilation and water loss. FD rapidly disrupts this balance, making WUE critical for assessing plant stress and recovery. Here, this study investigates the dynamics of landscape-scale WUE, and the components of GPP and AET under FD utilizing both observed data from the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux site (US-MOz) and version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Earth, Energy, Exascale System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2). Observations and simulations reveal GPP as dominant for WUE during earlier FD events (2005, 2007, 2012), shifting to AET in recent events (2014, 2018). This agreement indicates that the ELM can capture the shifting dynamics of GPP and AET in regulating WUE under FD conditions. However, the ELM systematically underestimates both GPP and AET and does so in a manner that does not preserve their ratio. As a result, WUE is also underestimated, suggesting that GPP is more strongly underestimated than AET. Furthermore, the ELM also underestimates the speed of GPP recovery, producing an artificially prolonged GPP recovery time following FD events. Observed environmental drivers such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and predawn leaf water potential (PLWP) effectively predict WUE, but ELM primarily highlights SM, underestimating VPD’s role. This study demonstrates that relying solely on soil moisture fails to capture the rapid hydraulic recovery observed in PLWP, underscoring the necessity of integrating plant hydraulics into land surface models to improve flash drought predictability.
Evapotranspiration↗
The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling
The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.
Kahre, Melinda A.↗
Observational and Modeling Studies of Radiative, Chemical, and Dynamical Interactions in the Earth''s Atmosphere
A 3-dimensional model was developed to support mechanistic studies. The model solves the global primitive equations in isentropic coordinates, which directly characterize diabatic processes forcing the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the middle atmosphere. It's numerical formulation is based on Hough harmonics, which partition horizontal motion into its rotational and divergent components. These computational features, along with others, enable 3D integrations to be performed practically on RISC computer architecture, on which they can be iterated to support mechanistic studies. The model conserves potential vorticity quite accurately under adiabatic conditions. Forced by observed tropospheric structure, in which integrations are anchored, the model generates a diabatic circulation that is consistent with satellite observations of tracer behavior and diabatic cooling rates. The model includes a basic but fairly complete treatment of gas-phase photochemistry that represents some 20 chemical species and 50 governing reactions with diurnally-varying shortwave absorption. The model thus provides a reliable framework to study transport and underlying diabatic processes, which can then be compared against chemical and dynamical structure observed and in GCM integrations. Integrations with the Langley GCM were performed to diagnose feedback between simulated convection and the tropical circulation. These were studied in relation to tropospheric properties controlling moisture convergence and environmental conditions supporting deep convection, for comparison against mechanistic integrations of wave CISK that successfully reproduce the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) of the tropical circulation. These comparisons were aimed at identifying and ultimately improving aspects of the convective simulation, with the objective of recovering a successful simulation of the MJO in the Langley GCM, behavior that should be important to budgets of upper-tropospheric water vapor and chemical species.
Salby, Murry↗
Possible Martian brines - Radar observations and models
The 1971 and 1973 Goldstone 12.6-cm radar observations of Mars are separate data sets which include reflectivity as a function of latitude, longitude, and season. It has been argued that secular reflectivity variations of Mars' surface are indicated by the data and that shallow subsurface melting is the causal mechanism most compatible with the observations; however, the melting hypothesis conflicts with accepted notions of the state and distribution of water on Mars. The data are examined to identify temporal and spatial domains within which statistically significant changes in measured reflectivity are clustered. Brines which might satisfy the best supported reflectivity variations are out of equilibrium with the chemical megaenvironment. It is unclear whether such a brine, if emplaced in the Martian regolith at a depth shallow enough to affect the radar reflectivity, could survive even a single freeze-thaw cycle. Some combination of unique scattering properties or some as yet unidentified process other than melting is responsible for any genuine reflectivity variations.
Zent, Aaron P.↗
Results of the Workshop on Impact Cratering: Bridging the Gap Between Modeling and Observations
On February 7-9,2003, approximately 60 scientists gathered at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas, for a workshop devoted to improving knowledge of the impact cratering process. We (co-conveners Elisabetta Pierazzo and Robert Herrick) both focus research efforts on studying the impact cratering process, but the former specializes in numerical modeling while the latter draws inferences from observations of planetary craters. Significant work has been done in several key areas of impact studies over the past several years, but in many respects there seem to be a disconnect between the groups employing different approaches, in particular modeling versus observations. The goal in convening this workshop was to bring together these disparate groups to have an open dialogue for the purposes of answering outstanding questions about the impact process and setting future research directions. We were successful in getting participation from most of the major research groups studying the impact process. Participants gathered from five continents with research specialties ranging from numerical modeling to field geology, and from small-scale experimentation and geochemical sample analysis to seismology and remote sensing.With the assistance of the scientific advisory committee (Bevan French, Kevin Housen, Bill McKinnon, Jay Melosh, and Mike Zolensky), the workshop was divided into a series of sessions devoted to different aspects of the cratering process. Each session was opened by two invited t a b , one given by a specialist in numerical or experimental modeling approaches, and the other by a specialist in geological, geophysical, or geochemical observations. Shorter invited and contributed talks filled out the sessions, which were then concluded with an open discussion time. All modelers were requested to address the question of what observations would better constrain their models, and all observationists were requested to discuss how their observations can constrain modeling efforts.
Herrick, Robert↗
Mesospheric Observations and Modeling of the Zeeman Split 233.9 GHz O-18O-16 line
Observations made from Kitt Peak, AZ, of the 233.9 GHz emission line of O-18O-16 in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere are reported. A good model fit to the line is obtained by incorporation of pressure and temperature broadening effects, as well as a Zeeman splitting algorithm that uses a standard geomagnetic field model and a paramagnetic Hamiltonian description of the molecular energy states. These observations are used, along with the well known O-18O-16 mixing ratio, to establish absolute calibration for observations of other chemical species from Kitt Peak. Repeated measurements show no change in this absolute calibration between observation dates. The wide magnetic splitting (+/-1.8 MHz) exhibited by this line with only six Zeeman components provides a unique test of middle atmosphere Zeeman effect model calculations, supporting the use Of 02 lines by microwave atmospheric sounders to measure pressure and temperature.
Sandor, Brad J.↗
Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake
Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.
carbon cycle↗
Plasmaspheric Erosion via Plasmasphere Coupling to Ring Current Plasmas: EUV Observations and Modeling
During a geomagnetic storm on 24 May 2000, the IMAGE Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) camera observed a plasmaspheric density trough in the evening sector at L-values inside the plasmapause. Forward modeling of this feature has indicated that plasmaspheric densities beyond the outer wall of the trough are well below model expectations. This diminished plasma condition suggests the presence of an erosion process due to the interaction of the plasmasphere with ring current plasmas. We present an overview of EUV, energetic neutral atom (ENA), and Far Ultraviolet (FUV) camera observations associated with the plasmaspheric density trough of 24 May 2000, as well as forward modeling evidence of the lie existence of a plasmaspheric erosion process during this period. FUV proton aurora image analysis, convolution of ENA observations, and ring current modeling are then presented in an effort to associate the observed erosion with coupling between the plasmasphere and ring-current plasmas.
Adrian, M. L.↗
A comparison of modeled and observed intensity profiles for C2, C3, CN, and the continuum for P/Halley
Model intensity profiles have been compared with those observed for the C2, C3, CN, and continuum emissions of Comet Halley, in order to constrain the dust and gas parameters. While most of the parameters were consistent with expected values, the lifetimes of C3 and its parent were unexpectedly small. The day:night production rate ratio, which was about 1:1 for the gas, covered the 4:3-1:0 range in the case of the dust.
Ellis, Tracy A.↗
Ice‐Nucleating Particles That Impact Clouds and Climate: Observational and Modeling Research Needs
Abstract Atmospheric ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud freezing processes, with important implications for precipitation formation and cloud radiative properties, and thus for weather and climate. Additionally, INP emissions respond to changes in the Earth System and climate, for example, desertification, agricultural practices, and fires, and therefore may introduce climate feedbacks that are still poorly understood. As knowledge of the nature and origins of INPs has advanced, regional and global weather, climate, and Earth system models have increasingly begun to link cloud ice processes to model‐simulated aerosol abundance and types. While these recent advances are exciting, coupling cloud processes to simulated aerosol also makes cloud physics simulations increasingly susceptible to uncertainties in simulation of INPs, which are still poorly constrained by observations. Advancing the predictability of INP abundance with reasonable spatiotemporal resolution will require an increased focus on research that bridges the measurement and modeling communities. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge and identifies critical knowledge gaps from both observational and modeling perspectives. In particular, we emphasize needs in two key areas: (a) observational closure between aerosol and INP quantities and (b) skillful simulation of INPs within existing weather and climate models. We discuss the state of knowledge on various INP particle types and briefly discuss the challenges faced in understanding the cloud impacts of INPs with present‐day models. Finally, we identify priority research directions for both observations and models to improve understanding of INPs and their interactions with the Earth System.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Application of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry measurements to observational and modeling studies of the low-frequency upper ocean mass and heat circulation in the tropical Pacific
The main purpose of the proposed work is to describe the seasonal and interannual variability of the upper ocean mass and heat transport in the tropical Pacific and to understand the mechanisms responsible for these transports. This will be done through a combination of experimental and modeling approaches. Remotely sensed sea level and derived current, observed on the basin scale, will be compared, analyzed, and combined with routine and enhanced in situ measurements of thermal and current field, as well as with model solutions forced by satellite-derived estimates of momentum and heat fluxes. The practical scientific rationale for this work stems from the unique data sets collected by (or easily available to) the investigator's team and from the team members' complementary backgrounds (physical oceanography and meteorology) and expertise (in situ and satellite-observation analysis and numerical ocean modeling).
Picaut, Joel↗