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At least 199 records · Page 11

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗

In situ TEM observation of calcium silicate hydrate nanostructure at high temperatures

Fire poses a substantial threat to concrete structures because calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) is not thermally stable at high temperatures. Herein, in situ TEM at temperatures from 20 to 800 °C was conducted to study the thermal-induced structural changes in C-S-H. We captured C-S-H shrinks at an average rate of 0.02 μm{sup 2}/{sup o}C upon heating with three stages observed, including induction, constant, and rapid periods. Our observation revealed that an 800 nm pore could be healed during pore structure evolution owing to the reconstruction and deformation among C-S-H blocks. The Ca/Si ratio was dropped at higher temperatures because of the leakage of calcium ions from the C-S-H structure to form CaO precipitates. The temperature-driven phase transformation and degradation were also detected using electron diffraction that C-S-H was transformed into metastable calcium silicate minerals above 800 °C. This work provides insights into the nanoscale transformation of C-S-H at high temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗

Interactions Between the Amazonian Rainforest and Cumuli Clouds: A Large‐Eddy Simulation, High‐Resolution ECMWF, and Observational Intercomparison Study

Abstract The explicit coupling at meter and second scales of vegetation's responses to the atmospheric‐boundary layer dynamics drives a dynamic heterogeneity that influences canopy‐top fluxes and cloud formation. Focusing on a representative day during the Amazonian dry season, we investigate the diurnal cycle of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide at the canopy top, and the transition from clear to cloudy conditions. To this end, we compare results from a large‐eddy simulation technique, a high‐resolution global weather model, and a complete observational data set collected during the GoAmazon14/15 campaign. The overall model‐observation comparisons of radiation and canopy‐top fluxes, turbulence, and cloud dynamics are very satisfactory, with all the modeled variables lying within the standard deviation of the monthly aggregated observations. Our analysis indicates that the timing of the change in the daylight carbon exchange, from a sink to a source, remains uncertain and is probably related to the stomata closure caused by the increase in vapor pressure deficit during the afternoon. We demonstrate quantitatively that heat and moisture transport from the subcloud layer into the cloud layer are misrepresented by the global model, yielding low values of specific humidity and thermal instability above the cloud base. Finally, the numerical simulations and observational data are adequate settings for benchmarking more comprehensive studies of plant responses, microphysics, and radiation.

Vilà‐Guerau de Arellano, J.↗

Carbon Outgassing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Is Supported by Ekman Transport From the Sea Ice Zone in an Observation‐Based Seasonal Mixed‐Layer Budget

Despite its importance for the global cycling of carbon, there are still large gaps in our understanding of the processes driving annual and seasonal carbon fluxes in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. This is due in part to a historical paucity of observations in this remote, turbulent, and seasonally ice-covered region. Here, we use autonomous biogeochemical float data spanning 6 full seasonal cycles and with circumpolar coverage of the Southern Ocean, complemented by atmospheric reanalysis, to construct a monthly climatology of the mixed layer budget of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We investigate the processes that determine the annual mean and seasonal cycle of DIC fluxes in two different zones of the Southern Ocean—the Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and Antarctic Southern Zone (ASZ). We find that, annually, mixing with carbon-rich waters at the base of the mixed layer supplies DIC which is, in the ASZ, either used for net biological production or outgassed to the atmosphere. In contrast, in the SIZ, where carbon outgassing and the biological pump are weaker, the surplus of DIC is instead advected northward to the ASZ. In other words, carbon outgassing in the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which has been attributed to remineralized carbon from deep water upwelled in the ACC, is also due to the wind-driven transport of DIC from the SIZ. These results stem from the first observation-based carbon budget of the circumpolar Southern Ocean and thus provide a useful benchmark to evaluate climate models, which have significant biases in this region.

Sauvé, Jade↗

Investigation of Arctic Cloud Properties and Surface Radiation Based on MOSAiC Shipborne Observations

The Arctic is rapidly changing due to changes of the Earth system. This study investigates cloud fraction, phase partition, cloud type, and their relationships with surface radiation based on yearlong shipborne observations in the Arctic regions. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign provided lidar and radar observations of cloud microphysical properties and surface shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. Cloud and radiative properties were examined at daily and monthly resolutions in four seasons. Low clouds were found to be most prevalent throughout the year, followed by deep clouds. The ice phase is the dominant phase except for summer (June–August). Liquid and mixed phases show more significant monthly and annual mean radiative effects in SW and LW than the ice phase. The clouds show net warming effects due to LW heating in most months, while the SW cooling effects of clouds become more dominant for July and August. The cloud and radiation observations from MOSAiC were used to evaluate simulations of the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. The simulations show large overestimations of the liquid and mixed phases in the Arctic regions from February to September. The simulations also underestimate the percentages of low clouds and overestimate the percentages of deep clouds throughout the year. Altogether, this work provides a unique analysis of cloud and radiation properties based on high-resolution shipborne observations, which can be used to assist future model evaluation and development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei Facilitate Drizzle Formation in Stratocumulus—Insights From a Combined Observation‐Modeling Framework

The mechanism for initiating drizzle drop remains a gap in the current understanding of warm rain formation. One prevalent hypothesis suggests that the presence of Giant Cloud Condensation Nuclei (GCCN) generates drizzle‐sized drops necessary to trigger the Collision‐Coalescence (C‐C) process. Here, in this study, this hypothesis is investigated using a novel framework that integrates in situ observations, remote sensing measurements, and idealized models. Results show that GCCN can efficiently generate drizzle drops through condensation, producing a broad Droplet Size Distribution (DSD) comparable to in situ observations. The large drizzle drop and broad DSD strongly facilitate C‐C, further accelerating drizzle initiation. To compare with observation, the model‐generated DSDs are used to generate radar Doppler spectra where radar reflectivity and Doppler skewness is estimated. The simulated radar quantities correspond well with radar observations, providing critical evidence for the GCCN‐induced drizzle initiation mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO 2 from 2000 to 2010

The climatic impact of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases is usually quantified in terms of radiative forcing, calculated as the difference between estimates of the Earth's radiation field from pre-industrial and present-day concentrations of these gases. Radiative transfer models calculate that the increase in CO 2 since 1750 corresponds to a global annual-mean radiative forcing at the tropopause of 1.82 ± 0.19 W m -2 . However, despite widespread scientific discussion and modelling of the climate impacts of well-mixed greenhouse gases, there is little direct observational evidence of the radiative impact of increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Here in this paper, we present observationally based evidence of clear-sky CO 2 surface radiative forcing that is directly attributable to the increase, between 2000 and 2010, of 22 parts per million atmospheric CO 2 . The time series of this forcing at the two locations-the Southern Great Plains and the North Slope of Alaska-are derived from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer spectra together with ancillary measurements and thoroughly corroborated radiative transfer calculations. The time series both show statistically significant trends of 0.2 W m -2 per decade (with respective uncertainties of ± 0.06 W m -2 per decade and ± 0.07 W m -2 per decade) and have seasonal ranges of 0.1-0.2 W m -2 . This is approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation. These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO 2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements of the Polarization Observables I{sup s} and I{sup c} for {gamma}{sup {yields}p{yields}}p{pi}{sup +{pi}-} using the CLAS Spectrometer

Model predictions regarding the excited baryon spectrum provided by Constituent Quark Models show good agreement with experimental measurements in the low-energy region less than {approx_equal}1.8 GeV. The mass region above {approx_equal}1.8 GeV, however, contains many resonances which are predicted to exist by these models but have not been experimentally verified. The analysis of a double meson final state using linearly polarized photoproduction data allows access to two polarization observables, I{sup s} and I{sup c}(also known as the beam asymmetry {Sigma} for a single meson final state). It has been shown that measurements of these polarizaton observables can provide insight into this missing resonance problem. This analysis was carried out on data taken from the CLAS-g8b data run period conducted at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. The analysis of this data and preliminary measurements of these obsevables will be dicussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observation of coupled vortex gyrations by 70-ps-time- and 20-nm-space-resolved full-field magnetic transmission soft x-ray microscopy

We employed time- and space-resolved full-field magnetic transmission soft x-ray microscopy to observe vortex-core gyrations in a pair of dipolar-coupled vortex-state Permalloy (Ni{sub 80}Fe{sub 20}) disks. The 70 ps temporal and 20 nm spatial resolution of the microscope enabled us to simultaneously measure vortex gyrations in both disks and to resolve the phases and amplitudes of both vortex-core positions. We observed their correlation for a specific vortex-state configuration. This work provides a robust and direct method of studying vortex gyrations in dipolar-coupled vortex oscillators.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Electromagnetic instability of thin reconnection layers: Comparison of three-dimensional simulations with MRX observations

In this study, the influence of current-aligned instabilities on magnetic reconnection in weakly collisional regimes is investigated using experimental observations from Magnetic Reconnection Experiment (MRX) [M. Yamada et al., Phys. Plasmas 4, 1936 (1997)] and large-scale fully kinetic simulations. In the simulations as well as in the experiment, the dominant instability is localized near the center of the reconnection layer, produces large perturbations of the magnetic field, and is characterized by the wavenumber that is a geometric mean between electron and ion gyroradii k~(ρ e ρ i ) -1/2 . However, both the simulations and the experimental observations suggest the instability is not the dominant reconnection mechanism under parameters typical of MRX.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Direct observation of the structural and electronic changes of Li{sub 2}MnO{sub 3} during electron irradiation

This study focuses on the effects of electron beam induced irradiation to the layered oxide Li{sub 2}MnO{sub 3}. Aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy are used to characterize structural and electronic transitions in the material during irradiation, with a focus on changes in Mn valence and O content. This truly in situ irradiation allows for specific particle tracking, dose quantification, and real-time observation, while demonstrating many parallels to the oxide's structure evolution observed during electrochemical cycling. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that typical imaging conditions are not severe enough to induce damage to the pristine oxide.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Observation of an electron band above the Fermi level in FeTe{sub 0.55}Se{sub 0.45} from in-situ surface doping

We used in-situ potassium (K) evaporation to dope the surface of the iron-based superconductor FeTe{sub 0.55}Se{sub 0.45}. The systematic study of the bands near the Fermi level confirms that electrons are doped into the system, allowing us to tune the Fermi level of this material and to access otherwise unoccupied electronic states. In particular, we observe an electron band located above the Fermi level before doping that shares similarities with a small three-dimensional pocket observed in the cousin, heavily electron-doped KFe{sub 2−x}Se{sub 2} compound.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

In-flight observations of low-mode ρR asymmetries in NIF implosions

Charged-particle spectroscopy is used to assess implosion symmetry in ignition-scale indirect-drive implosions for the first time. Surrogate D{sup 3}He gas-filled implosions at the National Ignition Facility produce energetic protons via D+{sup 3}He fusion that are used to measure the implosion areal density (ρR) at the shock-bang time. By using protons produced several hundred ps before the main compression bang, the implosion is diagnosed in-flight at a convergence ratio of 3–5 just prior to peak velocity. This isolates acceleration-phase asymmetry growth. For many surrogate implosions, proton spectrometers placed at the north pole and equator reveal significant asymmetries with amplitudes routinely ≳10%, which are interpreted as ℓ=2 Legendre modes. With significant expected growth by stagnation, it is likely that these asymmetries would degrade the final implosion performance. X-ray self-emission images at stagnation show asymmetries that are positively correlated with the observed in-flight asymmetries and comparable in magnitude, contradicting growth models; this suggests that the hot-spot shape does not reflect the stagnated shell shape or that significant residual kinetic energy exists at stagnation. More prolate implosions are observed when the laser drive is sustained (“no-coast”), implying a significant time-dependent asymmetry in peak drive.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Photoelectron spectroscopy of hexachloroplatinate-nucleobase complexes: Nucleobase excited state decay observed via delayed electron emission

We report low-temperature photoelectron spectra of isolated gas-phase complexes of the hexachloroplatinate dianion bound to the nucleobases uracil, thymine, cytosine, and adenine. The spectra display well-resolved, distinct peaks that are consistent with complexes where the hexachloroplatinate dianion is largely intact. Adiabatic electron detachment energies for the hexachloroplatinate-nucleobase complexes are measured as 2.26-2.36 eV. The magnitudes of the repulsive Coulomb barriers (RCBs) of the complexes are all ∼1.7 eV, values that are lower than the RCB of the uncomplexed PtCl{sub 6}{sup 2−} dianion as a result of charge solvation by the nucleobases. In addition to the resolved spectral features, broad featureless bands indicative of delayed electron detachment are observed in the 193 nm photoelectron spectra of the four clusters. The 266 nm spectra of the PtCl{sub 6}{sup 2−} ⋅ thymine and PtCl{sub 6}{sup 2−} ⋅ adenine complexes also display very prominent delayed electron emission bands. These results mirror recent results on the related Pt(CN){sub 4}{sup 2−} ⋅ nucleobase complexes [A. Sen et al., J. Phys. Chem. B 119, 11626 (2015)]. The observation of delayed electron emission bands in the PtCl{sub 6}{sup 2−} ⋅ nucleobase spectra obtained in this work, as for the previously studied Pt(CN){sub 4}{sup 2−} ⋅ nucleobase complexes, is attributed to one-photon excitation of nucleobase-centred excited states that can effectively couple to the electron detachment continuum, producing strong electron detachment. Moreover, the selective, strong excitation of the delayed emission bands in the 266 nm spectra is linked to fundamental differences in the individual nucleobase photophysics at this excitation energy. This strongly supports our previous suggestion that the dianion within these clusters can be viewed as a “dynamic tag” which has the propensity to emit electrons when the attached nucleobase decays over a time scale long enough to allow autodetachment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Observation of d(t,n) α Neutrons Following d(d,p)t Reactions in a Deuterium Gas Cell: An Attempt to Repeat Ruhlig’s 1938 Observation of Secondary Reactions

In order to benchmark methods used to calculate reaction-in-flight fusion reactions in inertial confinement fusion and address issues related to the first claimed observation of d(t,n)α reactions in 1938, secondary d(t,n)α reactions have been observed following d(d,p)t reactions in deuterium gas. A pulsed 200-nA, 2.2-MeV deuterium beam from the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory FN tandem accelerator was injected into a cylindrical multiatmosphere deuterium gas target. The incident beam traversed along the target cylinder’s 3-cm symmetry axis after its passage through a Havar entrance foil. Two different Havar foil thicknesses were used to obtain 1.5- and 0.6-MeV deuteron beams entering the deuterium cell. The cylinder’s radius was 2 cm to allow for d(d,p)t tritons emitted perpendicular to the beam to range out in the deuterium gas. The neutron emission from the cell was observed via its time of flight to a liquid scintillator placed at various angles to the beam direction, at a distance of 243 cm. Pulse-shape-discrimination techniques were used to separate neutron and gamma-ray signals seen in the liquid scintillator. The observed probability of ~2 × 10 –4 for inducing secondary d(t,n)α fusion in the gas cell per d(d,p)t reaction is consistent with theoretical expectations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SUB-ALFVENIC NON-IDEAL MHD TURBULENCE SIMULATIONS WITH AMBIPOLAR DIFFUSION. II. COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATION, CLUMP PROPERTIES, AND SCALING TO PHYSICAL UNITS

Ambipolar diffusion (AD) is important in redistributing magnetic flux and in damping Alfven waves in molecular clouds. The importance of AD on a length scale l is governed by the AD Reynolds number, R {sub AD} = l/l{sub AD}, where l{sub AD} is the characteristic length scale for AD. The logarithmic mean of the AD Reynolds number in a sample of 15 molecular clumps with measured magnetic fields is 17, comparable to the theoretically expected value. We identify several regimes of AD in a turbulent medium, depending on the ratio of the flow time to collision times between ions and neutrals; the clumps observed by Crutcher in 1999 are all in the standard regime of AD, in which the neutrals and ions are coupled over a flow time. We have carried out two-fluid simulations of AD in isothermal, turbulent boxes for a range of values of R {sub AD}. The mean Mach numbers were fixed at M=3 and M{sub A}=0.67; self-gravity was not included. We study the properties of overdensities-i.e., clumps-in the simulation and show that the slope of the higher-mass portion of the clump mass spectrum increases as R {sub AD} decreases, which is qualitatively consistent with Padoan et al.'s finding that the mass spectrum in hydrodynamic turbulence is significantly steeper than in ideal MHD turbulence. For a value of R {sub AD} similar to the observed value, we find a slope that is consistent with that of the high-mass end of the initial mass function (IMF) for stars. However, the value we find for the spectral index in our ideal MHD simulation differs from theirs, presumably because our simulations have different initial conditions. This suggests that the mass spectrum of the clumps in the Padoan et al. turbulent fragmentation model for the IMF depends on the environment, which would conflict with evidence for a universal IMF. In addition, we give a general discussion of how the results of simulations of magnetized, turbulent, isothermal boxes can be scaled to physical systems. Each physical process that is introduced into the simulation, such as AD, introduces a dimensionless parameter, such as R {sub AD}, which must be fixed for the simulation, thereby reducing the number of scaling parameters by one. We show that the importance of self-gravity is fixed in any simulation of AD; it is not possible to carry out a simulation in which self-gravity and AD are varied independently unless the ionization is a free parameter. We show that our simulations apply to small regions in molecular clouds, generally with l{sub 0} {approx}< 0.4 pc and M {approx}< 25 M {sub sun}. A general discussion of the scaling relations for magnetized, isothermal, turbulent boxes, including self-gravitating systems, is given in the appendix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

LoCuSS: CALIBRATING MASS-OBSERVABLE SCALING RELATIONS FOR CLUSTER COSMOLOGY WITH SUBARU WEAK-LENSING OBSERVATIONS

We present a joint weak-lensing/X-ray study of galaxy cluster mass-observable scaling relations motivated by the critical importance of accurate calibration of mass proxies for future X-ray missions, including eROSITA. We use a sample of 12 clusters at z {approx_equal} 0.2 that we have observed with Subaru and XMM-Newton to construct relationships between the weak-lensing mass (M) and three X-ray observables, gas temperature (T), gas mass (M{sub gas}), and quasi-integrated gas pressure (Y{sub X}), at overdensities of {Delta} = 2500, 1000, and 500 with respect to the critical density. We find that M{sub gas} at {Delta} {<=} 1000 appears to be the most promising mass proxy of the three because it has the lowest intrinsic scatter in mass at a fixed observable, {sigma}{sub ln{sub M}} {approx_equal} 0.1, independent of the cluster dynamical state. The scatter in mass at fixed T and Y{sub X} is a factor of {approx}2-3 larger than at fixed M{sub gas}, which are indicative of the structural segregation that we find in the M-T and M-Y{sub X} relationships. Undisturbed clusters are found to be {approx}40% and {approx}20% more massive than disturbed clusters at fixed T and Y{sub X}, respectively, at {approx}2{sigma} significance. In particular, A 1914-a well-known merging cluster-significantly increases the scatter and lowers the normalization of the relation for disturbed clusters. We also investigated the covariance between the intrinsic scatter in M-M{sub gas} and M-T relations, finding that they are positively correlated. This contradicts the adaptive mesh refinement simulations that motivated the idea that Y{sub X} may be a low-scatter mass proxy, and agrees with more recent smoothed particle hydrodynamic simulations based on the Millennium Simulation. We also propose a method to identify a robust mass proxy based on principal component analysis. The statistical precision of our results is limited by the small sample size and the presence of the extreme merging cluster in our sample. We therefore look forward to studying a larger, more complete sample in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗