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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms
We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.
Bayesian inference in band excitation scanning probe microscopy for optimal dynamic model selection in imaging
The universal tendency in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) over the last two decades is to transition from simple 2D imaging to complex detection and spectroscopic imaging modes. The emergence of complex SPM engines brings forth the challenge of reliable data interpretation, i.e., conversion from detected signals to descriptors specific to tip–surface interactions and subsequently to material’s properties. In this work, we implemented a Bayesian inference approach for the analysis of the image formation mechanisms in band excitation SPM. Compared to the point estimates in classical functional fit approaches, Bayesian inference allows for the incorporation of extant knowledge of materials and probe behavior in the form of corresponding prior distribution and return the information on the material functionality in the form of readily interpretable posterior distributions. We explore the nonlinear mechanical behaviors spatially in a classical ferroelectric material, PbTiO 3 . We observe the non-trivial evolution of the Duffing stiffness term and the nonlinearity of the sample surface, determine spatial clustering of the nonlinear response, and perform a Landau analysis on predicting the nonlinear coefficient, which indicates that ferroelectric behavior can be a cause of the observed results. These observations suggest that the spectrum of anomalous behaviors at the ferroelectric domain walls may be broader than previously believed and can extend to non-conventional mechanical properties in addition to static and microwave conductance.
CERN’s Super Proton Synchrotron 200 MHz cavity regulation upgrade: Modeling, design optimization, and performance estimation
Not Available
Scaling Laws of Graph Neural Networks for Atomistic Materials Modeling
Atomistic materials modeling is a critical task with wide-ranging applications, from drug discovery to materials science, where accurate predictions of the target material property can lead to significant advancements in scientific discovery. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) represent the state-of-the-art approach for modeling atomistic material data thanks to their capacity to capture complex relational structures. While machine learning performance has historically improved with larger models and datasets, GNNs for atomistic materials modeling remain relatively small compared to large language models (LLMs), which leverage billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets to achieve remarkable performance in their respective domains. To address this gap, we explore the scaling limits of GNNs for atomistic materials modeling by developing a foundational model with billions of parameters, trained on extensive datasets in terabytescale. Our approach incorporates techniques from LLM libraries to efficiently manage large-scale data and models, enabling both effective training and deployment of these large-scale GNN models. This work addresses three fundamental questions in scaling GNNs: the potential for scaling GNN model architectures, the effect of dataset size on model accuracy, and the applicability of LLM-inspired techniques to GNN architectures. Specifically, the outcomes of this study include (1) insights into the scaling laws for GNNs, highlighting the relationship between model size, dataset volume, and accuracy, (2) a foundational GNN model optimized for atomistic materials modeling, and (3) a GNN codebase enhanced with advanced LLM-based training techniques. Our findings lay the groundwork for large-scale GNNs with billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets, establishing a scalable pathway for future advancements in atomistic materials modeling.
Superconvergence of Online Optimization for Model Predictive Control
We develop a one-Newton-step-per-horizon, online, lag-L, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for solving discrete-time, equality-constrained, nonlinear dynamic programs. Based on recent sensitivity analysis results for the target problems class, we prove that the approach exhibits a behavior that we call superconvergence; that is, the tracking error with respect to the full horizon solution is not only stable for successive horizon shifts, but also decreases with increasing shift order to a minimum value that decays exponentially in the length of the receding horizon. The key analytical step is the decomposition of the one-step error recursion of our algorithm into algorithmic error and perturbation error. We show that the perturbation error decays exponentially with the lag between two consecutive receding horizons, while the algorithmic error, determined by Newton’s method, achieves quadratic convergence instead. Overall this approach induces our local exponential convergence result in terms of the receding horizon length for suitable values of L. In conclusion, numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.
Design and Cooling Performance of Additively Manufactured Ceramic Turbine Vanes
Ceramic materials are of significant interest in aviation and power generation gas turbine engines due to their low density and ability to withstand high temperatures. Increased cycle thermal efficiency and higher specific power output is possible by incorporating ceramic components that enable high turbine inlet temperatures and lower required cooling airflow levels. However, ceramics can be difficult and costly to form into the complex shapes used in gas turbine components, often requiring specialized multi-step processes. Furthermore, ceramic components in the hottest areas of a gas turbine, such as vanes or blade shroud seals, will still likely require cooling which is challenging to implement in conventional ceramic manufacturing approaches. Therefore, this study presents a multidisciplinary approach that investigates the design, fabrication, and overall cooling effectiveness evaluation of additively manufactured (AM), polymer derived ceramic (PDC) turbine vanes. A thermo-mechanically optimized vane design was generated, ceramic additive manufacturing of the complex cooling configuration was developed, and quantification of the increase in overall cooling effectiveness was performed in a 1X scale, high-speed facility using infrared thermography. This study produced a PDC AM process, capable of printing complex internal cooling schemes in 1X scale turbine vanes. Furthermore, it was found that the optimized vane more than doubled the overall cooling effectiveness observed in the baseline design, which reasonably agreed with thermomechanical optimization model predictions. Additionally, the optimized ceramic vane outperformed an identical metal vane, in terms of area averaged cooling effectiveness, suggesting that the ceramic vane could operate at reduced coolant flowrates to achieve comparable levels of cooling performance.
Design and Cooling Performance of Additively Manufactured Ceramic Turbine Vanes
Ceramic materials are of significant interest in aviation and power generation gas turbine engines due to their low density and ability to withstand high temperatures. Increased cycle thermal efficiency and higher specific power output is possible by incorporating ceramic components that enable high turbine inlet temperatures and lower required cooling airflow levels. However, ceramics can be difficult and costly to form into the complex shapes used in gas turbine components, often requiring specialized multi-step processes. Furthermore, ceramic components in the hottest areas of a gas turbine, such as vanes or blade shroud seals, will still likely require cooling which is challenging to implement in conventional ceramic manufacturing approaches. Therefore, this study presents a multidisciplinary approach that investigates the design, fabrication and overall cooling effectiveness evaluation of additively manufactured (AM), polymer derived ceramic (PDC) turbine vanes. A thermo-mechanically optimized vane design was generated, ceramic additive manufacturing of the complex cooling configuration was developed, and quantification of the increase in overall cooling effectiveness was performed in a 1X scale, high-speed facility using infrared thermography. This study produced a PDC AM process, capable of printing complex internal cooling schemes in 1X scale turbine vanes. It was found that the optimized vane more than doubled the overall cooling effectiveness observed in the baseline design, which reasonably agreed with thermomechanical optimization model predictions. Additionally, the optimized ceramic vane outperformed an identical metal vane, in terms of area averaged cooling effectiveness, suggesting that the ceramic vane could operate at reduced coolant flow rates to achieve comparable levels of cooling performance.
PERKS: a Locality-Optimized Execution Model for Iterative Memory-bound GPU Applications
Iterative memory-bound solvers commonly occur in HPC codes. Typical GPU implementations have a loop on the host side that invokes the GPU kernel as much as time/algorithm steps there are. The termination of each kernel implicitly acts the barrier required after advancing the solution every time step. We propose an execution model for running memory-bound iterative GPU kernels: PERsistent KernelS (PERKS). In this model, the time loop is moved inside persistent kernel, and device-wide barriers are used for synchronization. We then reduce the traffic to device memory by caching subset of the output in each time step in the unused registers and shared memory. PERKS can be generalized to any iterative solver: they largely independent of the solver's implementation. We explain the design principle of PERKS and demonstrate effectiveness of PERKS for a wide range of iterative 2D/3D stencil benchmarks (geomean speedup of 2.12x for 2D stencils and 1.24x for 3D stencils over state-of-art libraries), and a Krylov subspace conjugate gradient solver (geomean speedup of 4.86x in smaller SpMV datasets from SuiteSparse and 1.43x in larger SpMV datasets over a state-of-art library). All PERKS-based implementations available at: https://github.com/neozhang307/PERKS.
Fleet-wide Electrification Impacts Assessment for the Valley Transportation Authority
This report explores the long-term electrification opportunities for the Valley Transit Authority’s (VTA) transit bus fleet. The potential for transit bus electrification at VTA as well as the economic impacts of partial and complete electrification are explored. We use the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization model to determine the optimal charging, operation and lowest capital and operating cost solution to achieve different levels of electrification to meet their existing routes. This study finds that, relying on only depot charging, around 70% of the daily trips by VTA’s transit bus fleet can be replaced with battery electric buses (BEBs) today. The benefits and drawbacks of five methods for improving the electrification potential beyond that achievable with only depot charging are discussed including (1) increase charger power, (2) purchase of larger vehicle batteries, (3) en-route charging, (4) purchasing additional buses and swapping them to enable the existing routes/blocks1 to be met, and (5) route/block redesign. A strategy is developed to enable full fleet electrification by increasing charger power or allowing intraday charging as a proxy for the options mentioned above. This method allows us to develop an understanding of the impacts and trade-offs of full fleet electrification. Two charging strategies are examined. Immediate charging, when the bus is charged as soon as it arrives at a depot or en-route charging station, and smart charging, which uses a controller to determine the best times to charge to achieve the lowest charging cost, while maintaining the same trip schedules. Smart charging is effective at reducing the peak power consumption, which can be reduced by between 31% and 65% compared to immediate charging. This translates directly to lower electricity demand charges and lower costs for possible distribution system upgrades. The total lifetime net present value (NPV) costs for different scenarios are presented in Figure ES-1. Scenarios are separated into three sections. The first stacked bar on the left is the base case (business-as-usual) where all buses are diesel hybrids, the next four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing only immediate charging, and the last four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing smart charging. The results show that smart charging scenarios are within ±4% of the lifetime NPV cost of the diesel-hybrid only (business-as-usual) scenario. The scenarios with full fleet electrification (i.e., including intraday charging) are 4% lower cost and those with partial fleet electrification (i.e., without intraday charging) are 2%–3% higher. However, it is important to note that the intraday charging scenarios do not include any additional costs for the equipment necessary to achieve intraday charging (e.g., additional chargers, larger batteries, new route design). Additionally, it is worth noting that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit received for implementing electric buses is essential to achieving these results.
Using Parameterized Optimization to Model a Slip table.
Abstract not provided.
STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)
To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.
Numerical Modeling and Optimization of the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) Wave Energy Converter (WEC) (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number: CRD-22-22968)
This work generated a first-of-its-kind automated workflow to couple time-domain simulations of wave energy converters written in one software language with a set of design generation and evaluation scripts written in another software language. This automated workflow used an existing optimization package to analyze the sensitivity of different design parameters on the power output of a specific WEC, iProTech’s Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP). Geometric, inertial, and power take-off variables were all varied and optimized to find values that produced the highest amount of power generated over varying wave conditions. The findings on these parameter sensitivity studies are used to inform future design iterations of the PIP WEC. Including more design variables in the optimizations will only increase computational run time and further software development is needed to analyze a larger optimization.
Data-driven Reduced-order Modeling for Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification
Short presentation for the Fellows Day Symposium.
Enabling Real-Time Optimization through Model Reduction and Model Discrepancy Sensitivities
Explore the source record for details and available documents.