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NASA NTRS2013

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗

NASA NTRS2001

Momentum and Energy Assessments with NASA and Other Model and Data Assimilation Systems

Support from the NASA Global Modeling and Analysis Program has been used for the following research objectives: 1) the study of aspects of dynamics of torques and angular momentum based on the Goddard GEOS and other analyses; 2) the study of how models participating in the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-2) have success in simulating certain large-scale quantities; 3) the study of the energetics and momentum cycle from certain runs from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres and other models as well; 4) the assessment of changes in diabatic heating and related energetics in the community climate model (CCM3); 5) the analysis of modes of climate of the atmosphere, especially the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations. Further information on these endeavors will be provided in published works and the Final Report of the project.

Salstein, David↗

NASA NTRS2016

Arctic Sea Ice Simulation in the PlioMIP Ensemble

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Agricultural Breadbaskets Shift Poleward Given Adaptive Farmer Behavior Under Climate Change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

adaptation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OCO-2 Satellite-imposed Constraints on Terrestrial Biospheric CO2 Flux over South Asia

The spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial biospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) flux over South Asia is poorly understood. The inverse model “top-down” CO2 flux estimates which rely on atmospheric CO2 observational data are impeded by sparse in situ measurements over this region. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provides much needed global retrievals of column-average CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) with the finest spatial and temporal resolution and highest sensitivity to surface fluxes available to-date. This study conducted global inverse model simulations as part of the second OCO-2 Multi-model Intercomparison Project assimilating version 9 of the OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals in land nadir (LN) and land glint (LG) observing modes and global in situ (IS) measurements. The four-dimensional variational assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to estimate CO2 fluxes from 2015 to 2018. We then assessed the spatiotemporal variability of optimized CO2 Net ecosystem Exchange (NEE) fluxes aggregated over the South Asia region. The most robust result found by assimilating OCO-2 observations was the constraints imposed on the seasonal cycle of terrestrial biospheric fluxes over South Asia. The seasonality of South Asian NEE estimated by assimilating OCO-2 or global IS data showed a larger seasonal cycle compared to the current understanding of NEE in this region (represented by the prior NEE used in the model). The satellite-in situ joint inversion (IS + LN + LG) led to land flux seasonal amplitude (absolute magnitude of the difference between peak and trough of monthly mean values over a year) of 4.0 PgC yr-1, compared to the prior model (1.5 PgC yr-1). Moreover, OCO-2 data imposed a phase shift in the seasonal cycle, resulting in a large CO2 source in April and a large uptake in September. Most of the features in the seasonal cycle imposed by OCO-2 data are in agreement with previous “top-down” studies assimilating regional aircraft observations. Nevertheless, we recommend a closer examination of the novel features highlighted by the OCO-2 column data over South Asia in future studies by conducting regional inverse modelling with denser in situ and vertically-resolved regional observations along with satellite data.

OCO-2↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗

NASA NTRS1993

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

Kim, J.-H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Modeling Activities and NAME

In this talk I will review global modeling activities in the United States that could contribute to and benefit from NAME activities. I will present some preliminary results from several global atmospheric general circulation model simulation experiments for the initial NAME model intercomparison project period of May-Oct 1990. These include an ensemble of medium resolution simulations, and a high resolution (one half degree) simulation. I will also discuss possible high resolution global data assimilation experiments that could be used to help validate the model simulations and assimilate planned NAME observations.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Modeling Activities and NAME

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an underestimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southem Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1 988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models' seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an under- estimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southern Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations: TOA Radiation Budget and CREs - Part 2

In Part I of this study, the NASA GISS Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and post-CMIP5 (herein called C5 and P5, respectively) simulated cloud properties were assessed utilizing multiple satellite observations, with a particular focus on the southern midlatitudes (SMLs). This study applies the knowledge gained from Part I of this series to evaluate the modeled TOA radiation budgets and cloud radiative effects (CREs) globally using CERES EBAF (CE) satellite observations and the impact of regional cloud properties and water vapor on the TOA radiation budgets. Comparisons revealed that the P5- and C5-simulated global means of clear-sky and all-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) match well with CE observations, while biases are observed regionally. Negative biases are found in both P5- and C5-simulated clear-sky OLR. P5-simulated all-sky albedo slightly increased over the SMLs due to the increase in low-level cloud fraction from the new planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Shortwave, longwave, and net CRE are quantitatively analyzed as well. Regions of strong large-scale atmospheric upwelling/downwelling motion are also defined to compare regional differences across multiple cloud and radiative variables. In general, the P5 and C5 simulations agree with the observations better over the downwelling regime than over the upwelling regime. Comparing the results herein with the cloud property comparisons presented in Part I, the modeled TOA radiation budgets and CREs agree well with the CE observations. These results, combined with results in Part I, have quantitatively estimated how much improvement is found in the P5-simulated cloud and radiative properties, particularly over the SMLs and tropics, due to the implementation of the new PBL and convection schemes.

Model comparison↗

NASA NTRS2012

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P -- E, the net flux of water at the land surface, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021-2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas.

Seager, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗