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NASA NTRS1989

Long-term stability of the earth's climate

The long-term climatic evolution of the earth has been studied on the basis of one-dimensional, globally-averaged climate models yielding only a qualitative understanding of climatic history, and in any case proceeding under a series of potentially invalid assumptions. One such major assumption, which invites comparison with a three-dimensional GCM, is that of fixed relative humidity. A GCM may also be used to study the problem of water loss from both the earth and Venus.

Kasting, James F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Climatology of the Middle Atmosphere Temperature from Long-term Lidar Measurements at Mid- and Low-latitudes

Long term measurements from several lidar instruments, located at 44.0 degree N, 40.6 degree N, 34.4 degree N, and 19.5 degree N, were used to develop a new climatology of the middle atmosphere temperature.

lidar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Proof-of-Concept for a Long-Term Health Metric to Quantify End of Mission Health Status in Astronauts

NASA has long used Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. For spaceflight medical risk, the Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a significant step towards robustly quantifying the risk to crew health during exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively characterize and assess risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the entire Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. To fill this gap, the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project aims to perform risk characterization for the CHP system by assessing performance risk in addition to medical risk. This effort also includes quantifying Long-Term Health (LTH) risk in addition to in-mission risk outcomes within the CHP-PRA results. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. A proof-of-concept LTH risk metric is based on medical condition end-state, as defined by the Evidence Library, capturing the spaceflight specific medical impacts persisting into post-flight[1]. Condition outcomes in the Evidence Library progress through three Clinical Phases (CP): the diagnostic phase (CP1), the treatment/convalescent phase (CP2), and the end-state phase (CP3) which represents the detrimental effects of the condition after the crew member has recovered to the maximal extent. Each CP has an associated Task Impairment (TI), defined as the degree of crew incapacity due to experiencing the condition, and is quantified with a 0-1 range. Conditions with an associated CP3 (e.g. Sepsis, Traumatic Hypovolemic Shock, Sudden Cardiac Arrest, etc.) typically have serious consequences that can cause an astronaut to be fully or partially debilitated throughout the remainder of the mission. Consequently, the Cumulative CP3 TI End-of-Mission Health Status Metric is developed by CHP-PRA to quantify the cumulative effects of all conditions which progressed to the CP3 state throughout the entirety of the mission. Hence, this End-of-Mission Health Status Metric attempts to serve as an indicator of an astronaut’s health state at the time of landing. The severity of the lingering effects of in-mission medical events are dependent on mission activities and the level of available in-mission medical care. This allows the associated cumulative TI metric to be used in comparison with the crew’s end of mission health status for different levels of in-mission resources. This presentation provides the strategy for using CP3 as an LTH metric component, as well as a proof-of-concept demonstration of LTH risk characterization using this component.

long term health↗

NASA NTRS2018

Lessons Learned in Building Long-Term Multi-Satellite Global Precipitation Records

Efforts to construct long-term global precipitation data sets from the decades-long record of satellite (and other) data historically have fallen into one of two categories. Climate Data Records (CDR), such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), prioritize homogeneity over fine-scale accuracy. On the other hand, High Resolution Precipitation Products (HRPP), such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), emphasize the use of data from all available satellites. For both types of products, experience has shown that it is critical to choose the appropriate reference standard to intercalibrate an ever-evolving constellation of satellite sensors. Towards this end, we have used passive microwave (PMW) in developing GPCP, and combined PMW-radar in TMPA.The launch of the TRMM follow-on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2014 gave birth to several nearly-global HRPP's, including the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). Our strategy in refining IMERG has been to first focus on the tropics and mid-latitudes, where we have relatively high confidence, and only more recently begin to expand into the lower-confidence high latitudes. Similarly, although GPCP has provided nearly-global estimates since its inception in the early 1990's, the advent of sensors such as CloudSat has facilitated new efforts to modernize its estimates at high latitudes.For each of these data sets, it is expected that the final merged estimate should tend to track along with its respective calibration standard. Time series depicting GPCP, TMPA, and IMERG will be presented, in order to demonstrate the extent to which this is so. Additionally, comparisons amongst the products will show areas of agreement and highlight areas where further improvements are needed.

Nelkin, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

LightForce Photon-pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

conjunction analysis↗

NASA NTRS2016

Lightforce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 20-kilowatt-class lasers directed by 1.5-meter-diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence, we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planned simulation approach for that effort. For the efficiency analysis of collision avoidance in the current debris environment, we utilize a simulation approach that uses the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalog in LEO for a given day as initial input. These objects are propagated for one year and an all-on-all conjunction analysis is performed. For conjunctions that fall below a range threshold, we calculate the probability of collision and record those values. To assess efficiency, we compare a baseline (without collision avoidance) conjunction analysis with an analysis where LightForce is active. Using that approach, we take into account that collision avoidance maneuvers could have effects on third objects. Performing all-on-all conjunction analyses for extended period of time requires significant computer resources; hence we implemented this simulation utilizing a highly parallel approach on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer.

space debris mitigation↗

NASA NTRS1991

Long-Term Observations of Her X-1 with BATSE

Pulsed emission from Her X-1 has been observed by BATSE during each Main High state throughout the CGRO (Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory) mission . This long observation set by a single instrument provides new information on long-term behavior of the Her X-1 system. The luminosity varies by more than a factor of 3 between different 35d cycles. Frequency and flux histories do not show a simple relationship between the source intensity and spin behavior, but do show that only spindown occurs when the source is in its lowest intensity state. Orbital analyses will be presented, including tests for consistency of the observed orbital epoch with the long-term ephemeris reported by (Deeter 1991). The intensity profile and onset times of cycles observed by both BATSE and the RXTE ASM (All Sky Monitor) will be compared. Behavior of the cycle start times versus source Main High peak intensity will be presented.

Wilson, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Satellite observed long-term averaged seasonal and spatial ozone variations in the stratosphere

Nine years of Nimbus-7 SBUV ozone mixing ratio data (October 1978-September 1987) have been used to analyze the distributions of the long-term average annual and semiannual ozone oscillations in the lower, middle, and upper stratosphere over the region 65 deg S to 65 deg N. It is shown that the derived harmonics are consistent with the result of earlier investigations based on limited sets of data. Year-to-year changes of amplitudes of the annual and semiannual variations are generally small except in the tropical midstratosphere (due to the effect of El Chichon) and the southern subpolar upper stratosphere. Analyses are also presented to show the vertical and seasonal distribution of the zonal ozone variations. It is shown that, for the long-term averaged data, wave 1 is larger during winter than summer and in winter larger in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere. The importance of photochemical and thermal/dynamic processes in modifying the time and zonal variations is discussed.

Perliski, Lori M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Space Radiation Induces Long Term Impact on the Cardiovascular System by the Activation of FYN Through Reactive Oxygen Species

Space radiation can damage the cardiovascular system and thus is an important health risk factor for astronauts during long-term space missions. We utilized publicly available transcriptomic data through NASA's GeneLab platform (genelab.nasa.gov) to determine cardiovascular system response to space radiation. GeneLab is an open repository that houses all NASA related omics experiments including on the International Space Station (ISS) and related radiation ground studies. We analyzed 3 datasets from GeneLab: GLDS-117 and GLDS-109, which are ground studies of cardiomyocytes followed-up for 28 days after exposure to 90cGy of proton at 1GeV and 15cGy of 56Fe at 1GeV; and GLDS-52, human endothelial cells (HUVECs) that were cultured for 10 days on the ISS. The ground studies were designed to characterize the long-term impact following space irradiation on cardiomyocytes for 5 different time points up to 28 days after irradiation. Our analysis was guided by the hypothesis that there are common persistent molecules affecting the cardiovascular system due to radiation effects during spaceflight. Endothelial cells are known to directly regulate the development and activity of cardiomyocytes, and thus their response to spaceflight should be highly correlated with cardiomyocytes. To investigate our hypothesis, we identified the molecular pathways that were modified for all time points compared across both radiation on the ground and the pathways found in HUVECs flown in the ISS. We found the following key results related to the cardiovascular systems: 1) space radiation downregulate ROS functions; and 2) the key/driving genes: FYN, LCK, AKT1 are upregulated and LYN and FOS are downregulated with FYN being the central driver/hub for the cardiovascular response to space radiation. It is worth noting the activation of FYN is a key event which prevents cardiac cell death and ROS production. From our study we thus hypothesize that a feedback loop occurs from the oxidative stress caused by space radiation that upregulates FYN which in turn reduces ROS levels and thus ROS pathways, preventing cardiomyocyte and endothelial cell death and thus protecting the cardiovascular systems. We believe that this is a novel mechanism for space radiation induced cardiovascular risk directly linking radiation ground studies to spaceflight

Beheshti, Afshin↗

NASA NTRS1988

Characterization of the Nimbus-7 SBUV radiometer for the long-term monitoring of stratospheric ozone

Precise knowledge of in-orbit sensitivity change is critical for the successful monitoring of stratospheric ozone by satellite-based remote sensors. This paper evaluates those aspects of the in-flight operation that influence the long-term stability of the upper stratospheric ozone measurements made by the Nimbus-7 SBUV spectroradiometer and chronicles methods used to maintain the long-term albedo calibration of this UV sensor. It is shown that the instrument's calibration for the ozone measurement, the albedo calibration, has been maintained over the first 6 yr of operation to an accuracy of approximately + or - 2 percent. The instrument's wavelength calibration is shown to drift linearly with time. The knowledge of the SBUV wavelength assignment is maintained to a 0.02-nm precision.

Cebula, Richard P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Long-Term Creep of a Thin-Walled Inconel 718 Stirling Power-Convertor Heater Head Assessed

The Department of Energy and NASA have identified Stirling power convertors as candidate power supply systems for long-duration, deep-space science missions. A key element for qualifying the flight hardware is a long-term durability assessment for critical hot section components of the power convertor. One such critical component is the power convertor heater head. The heater head is a high-temperature pressure vessel that transfers heat to the working gas medium of the convertor, which is typically helium. An efficient heater head design is the result of balancing the divergent requirements of thin walls for increased heat transfer versus thick walls to lower the wall stresses and thus improve creep resistance and durability. In the current design, the heater head is fabricated from the Ni-base superalloy Inconel 718 (IN 718, Inco Alloys International, Inc., Huntington, WV). Although IN 718 is a mature alloy system (patented in 1962), there is little long-term (>50,000-hr) creep data available for thin-specimen geometries. Since thin-section properties tend to be inferior to thicker samples, it is necessary to generate creep data using specimens with the same geometry as the actual flight hardware. Therefore, one facet of the overall durability assessment program involves generating relatively short-term creep data using thin specimens at the design temperature of 649 C (1200 F).

Bowman, Randy R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Long-term variability of dMe stars

Photographic B magnitudes of the four spot stars BY Dra (dM0e), CC Eri (K7 Ve), AU Mic (dM2.5e), and YZ CMi (dM4.5e) are reported which considerably extend the time baseline of the photoelectric data on these stars. The long-term variation of the stars in yearly mean light is investigated. It is found that both BY Dra and CC Eri exhibit long-term B-magnitude variations with amplitudes of about 0.3 to 0.4 magnitude and times between maximum and minimum light near 30 yr. No apparent variability is observed for AU Mic and YZ CMi. The possibility is discussed that the variability of BY Dra and CC Eri is connected with a starspot cycle, for which the period would be around 60 yr.

Phillips, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On long-term ozone trends at Hohenpeissenberg

More than 2000 ozone soundings and a large number of Dobson observations have been performed since 1967 in a unique procedure. The achieved very homogeneous data sets were used to evaluate significant long-term trends both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The trend amounts to about plus 2 percent per year in the troposphere and to about minus 0.5 percent per year in the stratosphere. Extremely low ozone records obtained during winter 1991/92 are discussed in the light of the long term series. The winter mean of the ozone column is the lowest one of the series. The ozone deficit occurred mainly in the lower stratosphere. One cause may be the Pinatubo cloud. Even compared with the extreme winter mean following the El Chichon eruption the ozone content was lower. Additionally ozone was reduced by dynamical effects due to unusual weather situations.

Claude, H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Long-term measurement of bone strain in vivo: the rat tibia

Despite the importance of strain in regulating bone metabolism, knowledge of strains induced in bone in vivo during normal activities is limited to short-term studies. Biodegeneration of the bond between gauge and bone is the principle cause of this limitation. To overcome the problem of bond degeneration, a unique calcium phosphate ceramic (CPC) coating has been developed that permits long-term attachment of microminiature strain gauges to bone. Using this technique, we report the first long-term measurements of bone strain in the rat tibia. Gauges, mounted on the tibia, achieved peak or near peak bonding at 7 weeks. Measurements were made between 7-10 weeks. Using ambulation on a treadmill, the pattern and magnitude of strain measured in the tibia remained relatively constant between 7-10 weeks post implantation. That strain levels were similar at 7 and 10 weeks suggests that gauge bonding is stable. These data demonstrate that CPC-coated strain gauges can be used to accurately measure bone strain for extended periods, and provide an in vivo assessment of tibial strain levels during normal ambulation in the rat. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Non-programmatic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Long-Term Changes in Atmospheric Ozone

Ozonesondes have made inexpensive, accurate measurements of ozone from the ground to 30km for more than 50 years. The data are used extensively for trend analyses and for evaluation of satellite and model data products, and are also part of climatologies that are used as a priori data for satellite retrievals. They are essential as a transfer standard when merging shorter satellite-derived time series, and are the most important source of trend-quality long-term records below about 18 km. The importance of long-term ozonesonde records as a stable reference has led to increased attention to quantifying uncertainties and changes in ozonesonde data. Based on past intercomparison data, ECC sondes show a modest (~1-5%) high bias with respect to UV-absorption measurements (including MOZAIC-IAGOS) in the troposphere, with an uncertainty of 5%, but no evidence of a change with time. Other sonde types show an increase of 5-20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970-1995. Agreement in the stratosphere is much better. In the past 20 years ozonesonde precision has improved by a factor of 2, primarily through the adoption of strict standard operating procedures. In addition, many of the most important ozonesonde records have been re-evaluated and corrected, and detailed estimates made of their biases and uncertainties. Corrections to historical data for known issues may reduce biases but simultaneously introduce additional uncertainties. The uncertainty budget for the ozone partial pressure reading has contributions from stoichiometry, cell background current, pump efficiency and temperature, sensing solution type and volume. The much-discussed “background current” has recently been shown to be primarily related to reaction stoichiometry. Several quality assurance issues remain, but are tractable problems that can be addressed with further research. This will be required if the present goal of better than 5% overall uncertainty throughout the global ozonesonde network is to be achieved. Finally, the importance of regular sonde intercomparisons, employing UV photometers traceable to the modern UV-absorption standard, and of regular comparison of operational station records with multiple satellite sensors, is emphasized.

Ozonesondes↗

NASA NTRS2024

Oculometric Biomarkers of Visuomotor Deficits in Clinically Asymptomatic Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Undergoing Long-Term Hydroxychloroquine Treatment

Introduction: This study examines a set of oculomotor measurements, or “oculometric” biomarkers, as potential early indicators of visual and visuomotor deficits due to retinal toxicity in asymptomatic Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) patients on long-term hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) treatment. The aim is to identify subclinical functional impairments that are otherwise undetectable by standard clinical tests and to link them to structural retinal changes. Methods: We measured oculomotor responses in a cohort of SLE patients on chronic HCQ therapy using a previously established behavioral task and analysis technique. We also examined the relationship between oculometrics, OCT measures of retinal thickness, and standard clinical perimetry measures of visual function in our patient group using Bivariate Pearson Correlation and a Linear Mixed-Effects Model (LMM). Results: Significant visual and visuomotor deficits were found in 12 asymptomatic SLE patients on long-term HCQ therapy compared to a cohort of 17 age-matched healthy controls. Notably, six oculometrics were significantly different. The median initial pursuit acceleration was 22%, steady-state pursuit gain 16%, proportion smooth 7%, and target speed responsiveness 31% lower, while catch-up saccade amplitude was 46% and fixation error 46% larger. Excluding the two patients with diagnosed mild toxicity, four oculometrics, all but fixation error and proportion smooth, remained significantly impaired compared to controls. Across our population of 12 patients (24 retinae), we found that pursuit latency, initial acceleration, steady-state gain, and fixation error were linearly related to retinal thickness even when age was accounted for, while standard measures of clinical function (Mean Deviation and Pattern Standard Deviation) were not. Discussion: Our data show that specific oculometrics are sensitive early biomarkers of functional deficits in SLE patients on HCQ that could be harnessed to assist in the early detection of HCQ-induced retinal toxicity and other visual pathologies, potentially providing early diagnostic value beyond standard visual field and OCT evaluations.

eye movements↗

NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Trends in Space-Ground Atmospheric Propagation Measurements

Propagation measurement campaigns are critical to characterizing the atmospheric behavior of a location and efficiently designing space-ground links. However, as global climate change affects weather patterns, the long-term trends of propagation data may be impacted over periods of decades or longer. Particularly, at high microwave frequencies (10 GHz and above), rain plays a dominant role in the attenuation statistics, and it has been observed that rain events over the past 50 years have trended toward increased frequency, intensity, and rain height. In the interest of quantifying the impact of these phenomena on long-term trends in propagation data, this paper compares two 20 GHz measurement campaigns both conducted at NASAs White Sands facility in New Mexico. The first is from the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation campaign from 1994 to 1998, while the second is amplitude data recorded during a site test interferometer (STI) phase characterization campaign from 2009 to 2014.

attenuation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Trends in Space-Ground Atmospheric Propagation Measurements

Propagation measurement campaigns are critical to characterizing the atmospheric behavior of a location and efficiently designing space-ground links. However, as global climate change affects weather patterns, the long-term trends of propagation data may be impacted over periods of decades or longer. Particularly, at high microwave frequencies (10 GHz and above), rain plays a dominant role in the attenuation statistics, and it has been observed that rain events over the past 50 years have trended toward increased frequency, intensity, and rain height. In the interest of quantifying the impact of these phenomena on long-term trends in propagation data, this paper compares two 20 GHz measurement campaigns both conducted at NASA's White Sands facility in New Mexico. The first is from the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation campaign from 1994 - 1998, while the second is amplitude data recorded during a site test interferometer (STI) phase characterization campaign from 2009 - 2014.

Radio Attenuation↗