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At least 199 records · Page 11

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Semi-Supervised Disaggregation of Load Profiles at Transmission Buses with Significant Behind-the-Meter Solar Generations

It is of imperative interests for regional transmission organizations (RTOs) to effectively extract daily load profiles at transmission buses, which remains a gap in existing technology paradigm. This digest proposes an explicit yet efficient linear estimator, to disaggregate metered load profiles at buses with significant behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations in a data driven manner. The proposed estimator is based on utility zonal load profiles and proxy solar irradiance profiles, which in reality is the aggregated waveform at each transmission bus and equivalent to the mix of summed load profiles minus actual BTM solar generation. To overcome technical challenges in the lack of “ground truth” and validate the performance of supervised learning algorithms, we propose semi-supervised mechanisms with parameter tuning, and leverage the unique characteristics of zero-crossing points in BTM solar peaking behaviors.

machine leaning, behind-the-meter, power grid anal↗

Photovoltaic (PV) Impact Assessment for Very High Penetration Levels

This paper describes a granular approach for investigating the impacts of very high photovoltaic (PV) generation penetration. Studies on two real-world distribution feeders connected to PV plants are presented. The studies include both steady-state and time-series power flow analyses, which include the effects of solar variability. The goal of the study is to predict the effects of increasing levels of PV generation as it reaches very high penetration levels. The loss and return of generation with and without regulation is simulated to capture short-term problems such as voltage fluctuations. Impact results from the analyses are described along with potential mitigations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Control and Coordination of Frequency Responsive Residential Water Heaters

Demand-side frequency control can complement traditional generator controls to maintain the stability of large electric systems in the face of rising uncertainty and variability associated with renewable energy resources. This paper presents a hierarchical frequency-based load control strategy that uses a supervisor to flexibly adjust control gains that a population of end-use loads respond to in a decentralized manner to help meet the NERC BAL-003-1 frequency response standard at both the area level and interconnection level. The load model is calibrated and used to model populations of frequency-responsive water heaters in a PowerWorld simulation of the U.S. Western Interconnection (WECC). The proposed design is implemented and demonstrated on physical water heaters in a laboratory setting. A significant fraction of the required frequency response in the WECC could be supplied by electric water heaters alone at penetration levels of less than 15%, while contributing to NERC requirements at the interconnection and area levels.

Williams, Tess L.↗

Variable Time-Step Implementation for Rapid Quasi-Static Time-Series (QSTS) Simulations of Distributed PV

Distribution system analysis with high penetrations of distributed PV require quasi-static time-series (QSTS) analysis to model the variability introduced on the distribution system, but current QSTS algorithms are prohibitively burdensome and computationally intensive. This paper proposes a variable timestep algorithm to calculate the critical time periods when QSTS simulations should be solved at higher or lower time-resolution and to backtrack for any critical periods that were missed. This variable time-step solver is a new method of performing timeseries simulations with high accuracy while performing the simulation more than 50 times faster. The scalability of the algorithm is demonstrated using a real utility distribution system model with thousands of buses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimal Power Flow in DC Networks with Robust Feasibility and Stability Guarantees

With high penetrations of renewable generation and variable loads, there is significant uncertainty associated with power flows in DC networks such that stability and operational constraint satisfaction are of concern. Most existing DC network optimal power flow (DN-OPF) formulations assume exact knowledge of loading conditions and do not provide stability guarantees. Here, in contrast, this paper studies a DN-OPF formulation which considers both stability and operational constraint satisfaction under uncertainty. The need to account for a range of uncertainty realizations in this paper's robust optimization formulation results in a challenging semi-infinite program (SIP). The proposed solution algorithm reformulates this SIP into a computationally tractable problem by constructing a tight convex inner approximation of the stability set using sufficient conditions for the existence of a feasible and stable power flow solution. Optimal generator set-points are obtained by optimizing over the proposed convex stability set. The validity and effectiveness of the propose algorithm is demonstrated through various DC networks adapted from IEEE test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Two-Stage Adaptive Restoration Decision Support System for a Self-Healing Power Grid

Power outages cost American industries and businesses billions of dollars and jeopardize the lives of hospital patients. The losses can be greatly reduced with a fast, reliable, and flexible self-healing tool. This paper is aimed to tackle the challenging task of developing an adaptive restoration decision support system (RDSS). The proposed RDSS determines restoration actions both in planning and real-time phases and adapts to constantly changing system conditions. The comprehensive formulation encompasses practical constraints including ac power flow, dynamic reserve, and load modeling. Here, the combinatorial problem is decomposed into a two-stage formulation solved by an integer L-shaped algorithm. The two stages are then executed online in the RDSS framework employing a sliding window method. The IEEE 39-bus system has been studied under normal and contingency conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed online RDSS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Software-Based Challenges of Developing the Future Distribution Grid

The software that the utility industry currently uses may be insufficient to analyze the distribution grid as it rapidly modernizes to include active resources such as distributed generation, switch and voltage control, automation, and increasingly complex loads. Although planners and operators have traditionally viewed the distribution grid as a passive load, utilities and consultants increasingly need enhanced analysis that incorporates active distribution grid loads in order to ensure grid reliability. Numerous commercial and open-source tools are available for analyzing distribution grid systems. These tools vary in complexity from providing basic load-flow and capacity analysis under steady-state conditions to time-series analysis and even geographical representations of dynamic and transient events. The need for each type of analysis is not well understood in the industry, nor are the reasons that distribution analysis requires different techniques and tools both from those now available and from those used for transmission analysis. In addition, there is limited understanding of basic capability of the tools and how they should be practically applied to the evolving distribution system. The study reviews the features and state of the art capability of current tools, including usability and visualization, basic analysis functionality, advanced analysis including inverters, and renewable generation and load modeling. We also discuss the need for each type of distribution grid system analysis. In addition to reviewing basic functionality current models, we discuss dynamics and transient simulation in detail and draw conclusions about existing software?s ability to address the needs of the future distribution grid as well as the barriers to modernization of the distribution grid that are posed by the current state of software and model development. Among our conclusions are that accuracy, data transfer, and data processing abilities are key to future distribution grid modeling, and measured data sources are a key missing element . Modeling tools need to be calibrated based on measured grid data to validate their output in varied conditions such as high renewables penetration and rapidly changing topology. In addition, establishing a standardized data modeling format would enable users to transfer data among tools to take advantage of different analysis features. ?

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Loads as a Resource: Frequency Responsive Demand

Demand-side frequency control can complement traditional generator controls to maintain the stability of large electric systems in the face of rising uncertainty and variability associated with renewable energy resources. This report presents a hierarchical frequency-based load control strategy that uses a supervisor to flexibly adjust control gains that a population of end-use loads respond to in a decentralized manner to help meet the NERC BAL-003-1 frequency response standard at both the area level and interconnection level. The load model is calibrated and used to model populations of frequency-responsive water heaters in a PowerWorld simulation of the U.S. Western Interconnection (WECC). The proposed design is implemented and demonstrated on physical water heaters in a laboratory setting. A significant fraction of the required frequency response in the WECC could be supplied by electric water heaters alone at penetration levels of less than 15%, while contributing to NERC requirements at the interconnection and area levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Idaho Falls Power Black Start Field Demonstration (Preliminary Outcomes Paper)

This April 2021 field demonstration builds upon a 2017 field demonstration in which it was determined IFP’s HPPs, on their own, can support islanded black start and operation up to 2.5 MW loading. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop testing was used in the intervening period to design an energy storage solution, specifically using ultracapacitors, to reduce likelihood of generators tripping during the field demonstration. Overall, the 2021 field demonstration tested three different options for meeting IFP’s requirements: innovating the hydropower controls, synchronizing multiple HPPs on the system, and integrating an ultracapacitor energy storage system. This report documents the testing performed. Follow-on analysis will provide additional insights, for example, including a complete table of comparative results between the tests and scenarios. The analysis will also propose a refined design for an energy storage system to meet IFP’s grid islanded needs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Consequence Assessment

With consumers’ growing interest in electric vehicles, extreme fast charging stations are poised to provide high-power charging to rapidly recharge light-duty passenger vehicles. High-power charging requires high-level communication between vehicle and charger to govern the charging process. The coupling of power and communication increases the potential scale of cyberattacks. Using a full Western Electricity Coordinating Council planning model, load manipulation from high-power charging infrastructure is investigated. Two cases of load manipulation are studied: (i) a discrete, widespread system event and (ii) loads modulated near the Western Interconnect’s resonant frequency. In (i) some generation trips and in (ii) oscillations are observed on the California Oregon Intertie. Neither scenario results in significant adverse effects to the grid.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Treatment of Solar Generation in Electric Utility Resource Planning (Presentation)

Today's utility planners have a different market and economic context than their predecessors, including planning for the growth of renewable energy. Through interviews and a questionnaire, the authors gathered information on utility supply planning and how solar is represented. Utilities were asked to provide their resource planning process details, key assumptions (e.g. whether DG is represented as supply or negative load), modeling methodology (e.g. type of risk analytics and candidate portfolio development), capacity expansion and production simulation model software, and solar project representation (project size, capacity value and integration cost adder). This presentation aims to begin the exchange of information between utilities, regulators and other stakeholders by capturing utility-provided information about: 1) how various utilities approach long-range resource planning; 2) methods and tools utilities use to conduct resource planning; and, 3) how solar technologies are considered in the resource planning process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Creating a Virtual Utility District: Assessing Quality and Building Energy Impacts of Microclimate Simulations

Buildings in China, India, the United States (US), and United Kingdom (UK) consume 39-45% of each nation's primary energy with fast-growing countries like India projected to use 76% of their primary energy by 2040. In the United States, 73% of all electricity is consumed by buildings. In an effort to better operate electrical grids, needs exist to generate improved load models by better understanding and quantifying weather impacts and microclimate effects on building-specific energy use throughout a city.Scalable methods have been created to allow urban-scale energy modeling – to identify and synthesize a fully-articulated building energy model for every building in an area of interest. This was applied to the 1,385 km2 utility district serviced by the Electric Power Board of Chattanooga, TN. Each building is simulated on the world’s 4th-fastest supercomputer, Titan, using the U.S. Dept. of Energy’s flagship whole-building simulation tool, EnergyPlus, to analyze relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, land cover, and energy use. The Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model was scaled on several High Performance Computing (HPC) resources to simulate microclimate variation under different urban morphologies. We analyze the differences between WRF-based microclimate simulations and measured weather station data. This information is then used to quantify impact of microclimate variation and variable-specific meteorological variables on the electrical consumption for individual buildings and show impacts at the scale of a utility district.

New, Joshua↗

Demand response of loads having thermal reserves

Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.

Ren, Wei↗