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IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Strongly Heated Turbulent Flow in a Channel with Pin Fins

Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the turbulent flow in a channel of height H with a staggered array of pin fins with diameter D = H/2 as a function of heating loads that are relevant to the cooling of turbine blades and vanes. The following three heating loads were investigated—wall-to-coolant temperatures of Tw/Tc = 1.01, 2.0, and 4.0 - where the Reynolds number at the channel inlet was 10,000 and the back pressure at the channel outlet was 1 bar. For the LES, two different subgrid-scale models—the dynamic kinetic energy model (DKEM) and the wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity model (WALE)—were examined and compared. This study was validated by comparing with data from direct numerical simulation and experimental measurements. The results obtained show high heating loads to create wall jets next to all heated surfaces that significantly alter the structure of the turbulent flow. Results generated on effects of heat loads on the mean and fluctuating components of velocity and temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, the anisotropy of the Reynolds stresses, and velocity-temperature correlations can be used to improve existing RANS models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dispatching Grid-Forming Inverters in Grid-Connected and Islanded Mode: Preprint

This paper explores the dispatch-ability of grid-forming (GFM) inverters in grid-connected and islanded mode. Grid-forming (GFM) inverters usually use droop control to automatically share power with other GFM sources (inverters and synchronous generator (SG)) and follow the change of the load demand. However, they can be dispatched like their grid-following (GFL) counterparts to output the target active and reactive power. This will help the grid operator better manage their inverter-based resources (IBRs) for improved operation efficiency and reliability. Therefore, this paper proposes an innovative concept of dispatching GFM sources (inverters and SG) to output the target power for both grid-connected and islanded mode by adjusting their droop intercepts. The fundamental principle of doing so is that the GFM inverter's active and reactive power is dictated by its frequency and voltage, thus, dispatching active and reactve power of a GFM inverter can be achieved through dispatching its frequency and voltage. Moreover, the concept distinguishes the dispatch rules for grid-connected and islanded mode. Finally, the concept is validated with an example microgrid system with two GFM inverters, one diesel generator, one grid-following inverter and loads in both grid-connected and islanded mode. This pioneering work results in a practical guidance for power system energy management system (EMS) development to control a future grid with GFM and GFL inverters.

droop control↗

LANL MLU TRUPACT Loading Survey Document

The following SNL document contains requested radiological survey information, as part of the documentation for the MLU shipment being performed by the LANL MLU team. The survey was performed in TA-5, on October 19th, 2021. This survey was for radiological coverage for the disassembly of two TRUPACTs, the assembly and loading of their payloads, and the reassembly of the TRUPACTs.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Energy management system, method of controlling one or more energy storage devices and control unit for one or more power storage units

Systems, methods and apparatuses are provided for reducing peak energy demand and to smooth intermittent energy profiles from onsite variable energy sources and loads. Some embodiments use system level and device level analysis and optimization to adaptively adjust the operation of a behind the meter energy storage (BMES) to smooth out energy generation variabilities and follow a reference load signal, including at short time resolutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Full-Field Strain Measurement Integrated with Two Dimension Regression Analysis to Evaluate the Bi-Modulus Elastic Properties of Isotropic and Transversely Isotropic Materials

Background: Measuring the physical properties of shale is critical for optimizing engineering activities such as geothermal energy generation and hydraulic fracturing. Shale is a transversely isotropic material. Furthermore, this material can also include micro and macro cracks at different locations and orientations that cause it to behave differently under tensile or compressive loading. Objective: In this work, a combined experimental–numerical approach is proposed to evaluate the bi-modulus elastic properties of isotropic and transversely isotropic materials. Methods: Full-field strain measurements for a circular disk under diametral compression are integrated with a regression analysis technique to evaluate the elastic properties of bi-modulus materials subjected to tensile and compressive loads using two loading configurations on the same specimen. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is used to measure the full-field strains. Subsequently, in the case of an isotropic material, a linear least-squares approach is utilized to process the experimentally determined strains in conjunction with analytical expressions of the stress fields (in terms of far-field loading) to determine the elastic modulus E, the shear modulus G, and the Poisson’s ratio $v$. In the case of a transversely isotopic material, such as shale, a finite element model is implemented to determine the stress fields (again in terms of far-field loading), which is followed by repeating the previous regression analysis in an iterative process to estimate the elastic parameters. Results: The results show that the proposed technique successfully provides a complete set of elastic properties as a function of both the loading condition and the principal material directions. The technique is validated by measurements on a known isotropic material and then applied to determine the properties of shale. Conclusion: In this work, the proposed approach is successfully used to calculate the bi-modulus elastic response of poly(methyl meth- acrylate) (PMMA) and shale. As expected, PMMA exhibits an isotropic response with no bi-modulus effect, however, shale exhibits both transverse isotropy and a bi-modulus effect. Therefore, this approach holds promise for investigating the elastic properties of materials like rocks and fiber-reinforced composite laminates as functions of the principal material directions and the loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Second gadolinium loading to Super-Kamiokande

The first loading of gadolinium (Gd) into Super-Kamiokande in 2020 was successful, and the neutron capture efficiency on Gd reached 50%. To further increase the Gd neutron capture efficiency to 75%, 26.1 tons of Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O was additionally loaded into Super-Kamiokande (SK) from May 31 to July 4, 2022. As the amount of loaded Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O was doubled compared to the first loading, the capacity of the powder dissolving system was doubled. We also developed new batches of gadolinium sulfate with even further reduced radioactive impurities. In addition, a more efficient screening method was devised and implemented to evaluate these new batches of Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O. Following the second loading, the Gd concentration in SK was measured to be 333.5 ± 2.5 ppm via an Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS). From the mean neutron capture time constant of neutrons from an Am/Be calibration source, the Gd concentration was independently measured to be 332.7 ± 6.8(sys.) ± 1.1(stat.) ppm, consistent with the AAS result. Furthermore, during the loading the Gd concentration was monitored continually using the capture time constant of each spallation neutron produced by cosmic-ray muons, and the final neutron capture efficiency was shown to become 1.5 times higher than that of the first loaded phase, as expected.

Gadolinium↗

Evaluation of Optimal Net Load Management in Microgrids Using Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This paper presents the performance evaluation of a net load management (NLM) engine that balances load and generation in an isolated community to power a critical facility after a grid interruption event (e.g., the loss of a large generation unit). This NLM engine is particularly important for microgrid systems because it provides a high-speed, cost-optimal control solution to coordinate grid-forming inverters and to dispatch grid-following inverters and deferrable loads in microgrid systems to enhance grid resilience and reliability. The NLM algorithm cost-optimally dispatches the grid-following inverters and deferrable loads based on the demanded power and load priorities, and the grid-forming inverters use droop control to form system voltages and share active and reactive power. A controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform is developed to evaluate the control performance of the NLM algorithm with two sequential contingency events of lost generation units. The experimental results indicate that the NLM engine can maintain system stability, achieve the targeted system voltage and frequency, and balance load and generation to serve the critical facility with improved system resilience and reliability.

grid-following inverter↗

Evaluation of Optimal Net Load Management in Microgrids Using Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This presentation discusses the performance evaluation of a net load management (NLM) engine that balances load and generation in an isolated community to power a critical facility after a grid interruption event (e.g., the loss of a large generation unit). This NLM engine is particularly important for microgrid systems because it provides a high-speed, cost-optimal control solution to coordinate grid-forming inverters and to dispatch grid-following inverters and deferrable loads in microgrid systems to enhance grid resilience and reliability. The NLM algorithm cost-optimally dispatches the grid-following inverters and deferrable loads based on the demanded power and load priorities, and the grid-forming inverters use droop control to form system voltages and share active and reactive power. A controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform is developed to evaluate the control performance of the NLM algorithm with two sequential contingency events of lost generation units. The experimental results indicate that the NLM engine can maintain system stability, achieve the targeted system voltage and frequency, and balance load and generation to serve the critical facility with improved system resilience and reliability.

droop control↗

Unified model of short- and long-term HIV viral rebound for clinical trial planning

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. Indeed, a recent study showed that approximately 90% of treatment interruption study participants show viral rebound within at most a few months of therapy suspension, but the remaining 10%, showed viral rebound some months, or years, after ART suspension. Some may even never rebound. We investigate and compare branching process models aimed at gaining insight into these viral dynamics. Specifically, we provide a theory that explains both short- and long-term viral rebounds, and post-treatment control, via a multitype branching process with time-inhomogeneous rates, validated with data from Li et al. We discuss the associated biological interpretation and implications of our best-fit model. To test the effectiveness of an experimental intervention in delaying or preventing rebound, the standard practice is to suspend therapy and monitor the study participants for rebound. We close with a discussion of an important application of our modelling in the design of such clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Lifetime fatigue response due to wake steering on a pair of utility-scale wind turbines

Quantifying the impacts on turbine loads during wind farm control is an important consideration in assessing power production benefits. Wake steering controls aim to improve total wind farm performance by coordinating the control actions of individual turbines, wherein an upstream turbine is intentionally yawed at an offset angle from the measured wind direction. Consequently, this redirects its wake for improved power production and potentially reduces fatigue loads of the downstream turbines. This paper studies the lifetime fatigue loads associated with wake steering by using utility-scale wind turbine experimental data to conduct an analysis on a pair of wind turbines. This study was part of a large field experiment in which a group of five GE 1.5-MW SLE CWE turbines were selected as targets for conducting wake steering research. A standard loads instrumentation package and data acquisition system were installed on two turbines within the cluster to measure turbine fundamental loads. The time-series databases were used to calculate loads statistics as well as short-term and lifetime damage equivalent loads. Fatigue calculations followed the guidance in Annex H of the International Electrotechnical Commission standard 61400-1, Edition 4. Lifetime fatigue calculation results are presented in this analysis; three methods of assessing lifetime fatigue were used to determine percent difference for blade root moments, main shaft moments, main shaft torque, and tower top torque. For all three fatigue treatments, some components’ lifetime fatigue increases for the controlled turbine; however, the downwind turbine experienced a reduction in lifetime fatigue and combined effect for the turbine pair results in a reduction of fatigue when wake steering controls are applied.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Optimal Net Load Management in Microgrids Using Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation: Preprint

This paper presents the performance evaluation of a net load management (NLM) engine that balances load and generation in an isolated community to power a critical facility after a grid interruption event (e.g., lost a large generation unit). The NLM engine is a central dispatch control system that provides high-speed cost-optimal coordination of a set of net loads (combination of generation and deferrable loads) connected to the same electrical network. The NLM algorithm cost-optimally dispatches the grid-following inverters and deferrable loads based on the demanded power and load priorities, and the grid-forming inverters use droop control to form system voltages and share active and reactive power. A controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform is developed to evaluate the control performance of the NLM algorithm. The experimental results indicate that the NLM engine can achieve the targeted system voltage and frequency and balance load and generation to serve the critical facility.

droop control↗

Generalizing the compressible pairwise interaction extended point-particle model

Ejecta physics plays an important role in material interfaces that are impacted by a strong shock wave. When a shock impacts a rough surface of solid material and melts it, the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability grows perturbations on the surface, which can eject particles. After release, the ejecta travel through the post-shock compressible flow. To accurately simulate a large number of ejecta particles, an Euler–Lagrange approach is preferred, which requires modeling the subgrid-scale physics involved with fluid–particle interactions. We generalize the previous work from Hsiao et al. (2023) to consider systems of moving particles subject to any loading shock. The following improvements were made: (1) Particles are allowed to move relative to each other (2) Non-planar shocks are accounted for along with allowing for variable shock speeds. As a result, the generalized algorithm was tested with particle-resolved simulations for canonical test cases. The results of these tests are discussed and analyzed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Flexible cryogenic air separation unit—An application for low-carbon fossil-fuel plants

In this study, the rapid integration of intermittent renewable sources into the electricity grid is driving the need for a flexible cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) coupled with a low-carbon fossil-fuel plant. However, the state-of-the-art ASU process is highly integrated and nonlinear, which can significantly restrict its ramping rate. In this work, we study the fundamental dynamics of a state-of-the-art double-column ASU, focusing on the dynamic characteristics of the highly integrated and nonlinear heat and mass transfers, and we propose basic control methods for achieving high process ramping rates. We found that the vapor–liquid countercurrent flows in the low-pressure column are critical to the cryogenic rectification of air, which governs the ramp rate of the ASU. This countercurrent flow structure is created through a complex heat integration process in the ASU. Here, this process is simplified as a countercurrent heat transfer to reduce the complexity of studying the ASU dynamics. To preserve this flow structure, the heat integration is maintained so that its heat duty follows the ASU load, using several basic controllers on the critical stream flowrates. A flow-driven dynamic ASU model is built in Aspen Plus Dynamics to capture the basic ramping dynamics. This model revealed a fundamental mismatch in the dynamics in the ASU column that causes a significant loss of O 2 product purity when ramping down the ASU and slightly increases the purity when ramping up. Based on these findings, we propose a basic control method for rapidly ramping down/up the ASU while maintaining O 2 product purity. Simulation results show the ASU basic dynamic process successfully ramps at a rate up to 10 %/min (40–100 % load) while maintaining the O 2 product purity at 95.2–95.6 mol%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Fidelity Multiphysics Modeling of a Heat Pipe Microreactor Using BlueCrab

Researchers who are actively developing nuclear microreactors are planning to employ innovative designs and features using traditional commercial modeling tools that may be inadequate for their design and licensing activities. The codes developed under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program provide flexibility in terms of geometry modeling and multiphysics coupling and are particularly well suited for modeling novel microreactor concepts. To test the maturity of these codes, this paper introduces a conceptual heat pipe microreactor (HP-MR) designed to gather various technologies of interest to microreactor developers such as control drums, heat pipes, and hydride moderators. Here, the objective of this effort is to demonstrate NEAMS tools capability to perform high-fidelity multiphysics simulations, using coupled neutronics (via the Griffin code), heat conduction (via the BISON code), heat pipe modeling (via the Sockeye code), and hydrogen redistribution in hydride metal moderator (via the SWIFT code). Codes are coupled in-memory through the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, which permits flexible multiphysics data transfer schemes. The analysis confirmed two key aspects of the HP-MR concept: (1) its ability to follow the power load requested from the heat pipe and (2) its ability to avoid heat pipe cascading failure unless designed with high power close to operating failure limits of its heat pipes. The developed computational model was distributed publicly on the Virtual Test Bed for training purposes to accelerate adoption by industry and to provide a high-fidelity multiphysics solution for benchmarking against other tools. Additional multiphysics analyses including other transients and coupled physics were identified as necessary future work, together with a focus on validating multiphysics behavior against experiments.

Microreactor↗

Development of a 300 MWe Utility Scale Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

A 300 MWe direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) oxy-fuel turbine is being developed that will burn natural gas-fired, coal syngas and even hydrogen mixtures capable of 1,150ºC turbine inlet temperature at 300 bar. This design will significantly improve the state-of-the-art for thermal efficiency and results in a high-pressure stream of CO2 with 98%+ carbon capture, making the power plant near emission-free and more efficient than Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture. This power plant will be capable of burning coal through gasification and cleanup of the synthesis gas (syngas). sCO2 power cycles are a transformational technology for the energy industry, providing higher efficiency heat source energy conversion for conventional and alternative energy sources. This novel cycle significantly reduces capital costs because of smaller equipment footprints, design modularity, and allows for rapid cyclic load and source following to balance solar and wind energy power swings. Oxy-fuel sCO2 cycles take these advantages even further, utilizing higher firing temperatures, improved efficiency, and simpler carbon capture strategies. This turbine will require cooled turbine nozzles and blades as well as advanced thermal management systems to accommodate these high temperatures. The cooled blade heat transfer correlations required new test programs at higher Reynolds number than air-breathing gas turbines for impingement, serpentine, and pin-fin regions. Novel blade optimization was performed to maximize aerodynamic efficiency, while minimizing cooling flows. A turbine layout was generated utilizing individual combustor cans with cooled liners feeding into a 6-stage axial flow turbine with cooled stator nozzles and turbine blades. The case design and thermal management preliminary design will be described.

Moore, Jeffrey↗

Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) Ion Exchange Media Performance Evaluations to Support TSCR DSA IX Media Equilibrium Contacts

The primary objective of this work is to calculate the maximum loading expected on the Hanford Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) ion exchange columns. A key consideration in the design of the columns is the amount of 137 Cs that loads onto the Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) and the heat generated by the loaded column during storage. Per request of Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has utilized ZAM, a computer program developed by the research group of Professor Rayford G. Anthony of Texas A&M University, to predict the cesium loading on the CST for a variety of waste compositions expected to be processed by TSCR. The study evaluated cesium loadings for the following waste compositions: 1. Seventeen DFLAW campaign batches to cover projected supernate composition ranges within which TSCR may be expected to operate within the first ten years, 2. Hanford tank AP-105 and AP-107 waste solutions that will be processed by the TSCR system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Rapidly ramp cryogenic air separation unit without loss of O2 product purity—application for low-carbon fossil-fuel plants

The rapid integration of intermittent renewable sources into the electricity grid is driving the need for low-carbon, fossil-fuel power plant capable of rapid ramping. Therefore, a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) as part of low-carbon, fossil-fuel power plant should be capable of rapid ramping. However, highly integrated and nonlinear processes of the ASU would significantly restrict this rapid ramping. To overcome this fundamental issue, we study the basic dynamic process of a state-of-the-art double-column ASU. A flow-driven dynamic model was established in Aspen Plus Dynamics, assuming perfect flow controls, to capture the basic dynamics of ramping ASU. We find the vapor-liquid counter-current flow structure in the low-pressure column is critical to the air separation when rapidly ramping the ASU. This flow structure is established based on a complicated heat integration process. It is simplified as an apparent counter-current heat transfer process in this work, which greatly reduces the complexity for studying the dynamics of ASU. For keeping this basic flow structure, the heat integration is maintained as its heat duty follows the ASU load, through several basic feed-forward and feed-back controllers on the critical stream flowrates. Moreover, we find a fundamental issue of mismatched dynamics in the low-pressure column, resulting in a significant loss of O2 product purity when rapidly ramping down the ASU and an obvious fluctuation of O2 product purity. Based on these explorations, we propose a basic control method for rapidly ramping the ASU without loss of O2 product purity. Results show the ASU basic dynamic process successfully ramps at a rate up to 10%/min (40-100% load) while maintaining the O2 product purity within 95.2-95.6 mol%.

Cheng, Mao↗