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NASA NTRS2017

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

validation↗

NASA NTRS1994

Grain destruction in shocks in the interstellar medium

Destruction of interstellar dust occurs predominantly in supernova shock waves in the warm neutral/ionized medium (density approximately = 0.25/cu cm, temperature approximately = 10(exp 4) K). Recent theoretical developments and laboratory data for sputtering processes and grain-grain collisional vaporization allows us to better evaluate the grain destruction rate in interstellar shocks in the warm medium. We find that, independent of composition, grain denstruction in supernova blast waves is dominated by nonthermal sputtering for shock velocities greater than 50 km/s and less than or equal to 150 km/s and thermal sputtering at higher shock velocities. We use a detailed scheme for the vaporization of grains colliding at high velocities (v(sub s) greater than or equal to 20 km/s) and show that the grain-grain collision destruction process is only dominant for shock velocities of less than or equal to 50-80 km/s and is less important than previously assumed. Nevertheless, the grain-grain destruction rates are of order 30%-90% of the sputtering rates at v(sub s) greater than 100 km/s and less than 200 km/s and are important in vaporizing the cores of grains. Detailed results for grain destruction as a function of grain size and composition are presented. We also present results for silicon carbide, iron, ice, and porous test particles. For carbonaceous grains we find that the fractional destruction is less than or equal to 0.29, and for silicate it is less than or equal to 0.45, for v(sub s) less than or equal to 200 km/s. We have calculated grain lifetimes, using the three-phase model of the interstellar medium, and find lifetimes of 4 x 10(exp 8) yr for carbonaceous grains and 2.2 x 10(exp 8) yr for silicate grains. Given that the typical stardust injection timescale of 2.5 x 10(exp 9) yr, we conclude that efficient mechanisms for grain growth in the interstellar medium must exist in order that a significant fraction of the refractory elements be incorporated in dust, as observed. Therefore, although our improved model has less vaporization of dust due to grain-grain collisions, sputtering still destroys dust efficiently and grain mantle growth in the interstellar medium is required, a conclusion reached in previous models of grain destruction in the interstellar medium. Carbonaceous mantles on silicate grains can protect the silicate cores from sputtering destruction in interstellar shock waves, provided that the protective mantles can efficiently reform in the interstellar medium. Also, if the grains are porous the postshock grain velocities are lower than for solid particles, and grain destruction is reduced. Porosity and mantling may increase the grain lifetime by factors of approximately 3 and approximately 3-4, respectively. The fraction of interstellar silicon in silicate stardust is therefore less than or equal to 0.25, but more silicon might be depleted in the form of a grain mantle.

Jones, A. P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Battery Performance, Thermal, and Life Modeling for Southern California Edison (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

The objective of this project is to develop battery performance models, thermal models and life models for SCE to use in simulation and analysis of grid services involving energy storage. NREL will fit the models to three separate chemistries using test data provided by SCE. The dataset for each chemistry will include electrical, thermal and aging response to different temperatures and cycling conditions, measured under a variety of cell-level and module-level experiments described in SCE test protocol documents. Once tuned to a test dataset, the battery system model software will provide predictions of battery energy and power loss, and thus cycle and calendar life, for any energy storage grid service power profile of interest to SCE. The automated battery life modeling and simulation tool can also be applied to any other grid battery systems as long as necessary input data is available to accelerate battery model development and battery lifetime analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward a long-lifetime polarized photoelectron gun for the Ce+BAF positron source

The addition of spin-polarized, continuous-wave (c.w.) positron beams to the 12 GeV Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) would provide a significant capability to the experimental nuclear physics program at Jefferson Lab. Based on bremsstrahlung and pair-production in a high-Z target, the positron source requires a 120 MeV spin-polarized c.w. electron beam of several milliamperes. While the beam dynamics of the high-current electron beam are tenable, sustaining this current for weeks of user operations requires an unprecedented charge lifetime from a high-polarization GaAs-based photocathode. A promising approach to exceed the kilocoulomb charge lifetime barrier is reducing the ion back-bombardment fluence at the photocathode. By increasing the laser size and managing the emittance growth with an adequate cathode/anode design, significantly enhanced charge lifetime may be achieved. Based upon a new simulation model that qualitatively explains the lifetime data previously measured at different spot sizes, we describe the practical implications on the parameter space available for a kilocoulomb-lifetime polarized photogun design.

Bruker, M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward a long-lifetime polarized photoelectron gun for the Ce+BAF positron source

Bruker, M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Duality defect in a deformed transverse-field Ising model

Physical quantities with long lifetimes have both theoretical significance in the study of quantum many-body systems and practical implications for quantum technologies. In this manuscript, we investigate the roles played by topological defects in the construction of quasiconserved quantities, using as a prototypical example the Kramers-Wannier duality defect in a deformed one-dimensional quantum transverse-field Ising model. We construct the duality defect Hamiltonian in three different ways: half-chain Kramers-Wannier transformation, utilization of techniques in the Ising fusion category, and defect-modified weak integrability breaking deformation. The third method is also applicable for the study of generic integrable defects under weak integrability breaking deformations. We also work out the deformation of defect-modified higher charges in the model and study their slower decay behavior. Furthermore, we consider the corresponding duality defect twisted deformed Floquet transverse-field Ising model and investigate the stability of the isolated zero mode associated with the duality defect in the integrable Floquet Ising model, under such weak integrability breaking deformation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Parameterization of Top-Hat Particle Sensors with Microchannel-Plate-Based Detection Systems and its Application to the Fast Plasma Investigation on NASA's Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission

The most common instrument for low energy plasmas consists of a top-hat electrostatic analyzer geometry coupled with a microchannel-plate (MCP)-based detection system. While the electrostatic optics for such sensors are readily simulated and parameterized during the laboratory calibration process, the detection system is often less well characterized. Furthermore, due to finite resources, for large sensor suites such as the Fast Plasma Investigation (FPI) on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, calibration data are increasingly sparse. Measurements must be interpolated and extrapolated to understand instrument behavior for untestable operating modes and yet sensor inter-calibration is critical to mission success. To characterize instruments from a minimal set of parameters we have developed the first comprehensive mathematical description of both sensor electrostatic optics and particle detection systems. We include effects of MCP efficiency, gain, scattering, capacitive crosstalk, and charge cloud spreading at the detector output. Our parameterization enables the interpolation and extrapolation of instrument response to all relevant particle energies, detector high voltage settings, and polar angles from a small set of calibration data. We apply this model to the 32 sensor heads in the Dual Electron Sensor (DES) and 32 sensor heads in the Dual Ion Sensor (DIS) instruments on the 4 MMS observatories and use least squares fitting of calibration data to extract all key instrument parameters. Parameters that will evolve in flight, namely MCP gain, will be determined daily through application of this model to specifically tailored in-flight calibration activities, providing a robust characterization of sensor suite performance throughout mission lifetime. Beyond FPI, our model provides a valuable framework for the simulation and evaluation of future detection system designs and can be used to maximize instrument understanding with minimal calibration resources.

Instrument-model↗

NASA NTRS1982

Orbital performance of a one-year lifetime superfluid helium dewar based on ground testing and computer modelling

The ground-test results of the 550-liter superfluid-He dewar built for IRAS are presented and discussed, and a computer projection of its orbital performance life is developed. The ground-testing program included flow-swap, cold-flow, power-off, hot/cold-viewport, and strap-thermal-efficiency tests. After one set of trials, some design changes were made, and the thermal-network computer model of the system was modified as well. The driving boundary conditions of dewar orbital operation used in this model are vacuum-shell temperature = 170 K, aperture heating = 8.0 mW, and focal-plane power dissipation = 16.2 mW. An operational lifetime of 319 days and an He loss rate of 2.54 mg/sec are predicted.

Hopkins, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Carbon Back Sputter Modeling for Hall Thruster Testing

Lifetime requirements for electric propulsion devices, including Hall Effect thrusters, are continually increasing, driven in part by NASA's inclusion of this technology in it's exploration architecture. NASA will demonstrate high-power electric propulsion system on the Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission (SEP TDM). The Asteroid Redirect Robotic mission is one candidate SEP TDM, which is projected to require tens of thousands of thruster life. As thruster life is increased, for example through the use of improved magnetic field designs, the relative influence of facility effects increases. One such effect is the sputtering and redeposition, or back sputter, of facility materials by the high energy thruster plumes. In support of wear testing for the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) project, the back sputter from a Hall effect thruster plume has been modeled for the NASA Glenn Research Center's Vacuum Facility 5. The predicted wear at a near-worst case condition of 600 V, 12.5 kW was found to be on the order of 1 micron/kh in a fully carbon-lined chamber. A more detailed numerical Monte Carlo code was also modified to estimate back sputter for a detailed facility and pumping configuration. This code demonstrated similar back sputter rate distributions, but is not yet accurately modeling the magnitudes. The modeling has been benchmarked to recent HERMeS wear testing, using multiple microbalance measurements. These recent measurements have yielded values on the order of 1.5 - 2 micron/kh at 600 V and 12.5 kW.

Propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery-cycling protocols

Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. Here, by combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

LDRD for a high-current polarized-beam photogun

The electron accelerator driving the Ce+BAF conversion target requires a spin-polarized photogun capable of delivering a CW beam current of at least 1 mA. As the high beam current limits the useful operating time of the gun between photocathode reactivations due to ion back-bombardment, it is critical to increase the charge lifetime. A Jefferson Lab LDRD project aims to calibrate the simulation models needed to predict photocathode lifetime as a function of electrostatic optics and drive laser parameters in order to design a gun providing at least 1000 C charge lifetime. A prototype gun demonstrating the validity of the scaling predictions will be built and tested at the Gun Test Stand. I will describe the background and progress of this project and give an outlook on the expected performance.

Bruker, Max [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Parallel Plastic‐to‐X Pathways and Their Role in a Circular Economy for PET Bottles

Abstract The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country and is a top contributor to global plastic pollution. Multiple end‐of‐life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different lifetimes and utilities. Herein, they present a material flow model equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, cost analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator that considers product quality and lifetime. The model is used to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle mechanical downcycling to lower‐quality resin, closed‐loop glycolysis to food‐grade PET, upcycling to glass fiber‐reinforced plastic, and conversion to non‐plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy‐wide basis for the year 2020. A brute force algorithm suggests that a combination of 68% glycolysis, 11% mechanical recycling, 6% upcycling, 9% landfilling, and 5% incineration can minimize the cost and GHG emissions and maximize the circularity of the current PET economy. However, uncertainty around transportation distances, materials recovery facility efficiencies, and recycling yields can result in different “optimal” pathway mixes. This flexible framework enables informed decision‐making to move toward a cost‐ and environment‐conscious circular economy for plastic.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermomechanical Stress and Creep-Fatigue Analysis of a High-Temperature Prototype Receiver for Heating Particles

This work presents a three-dimensional (3D) thermomechanical model of a prototype-scale enclosed light trapping solar receiver for heating particles. Results of the thermoelastic model are used to estimate receiver lifetime under maximum flux conditions. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to predict the temperature fields in a multi-panel assembly under steady operating conditions. Solar flux distributions on the receiver are obtained from the software package SolTrace and applied to the 3D thermal model. The subsequent particle heating is captured through a simplified 1D energy balance. Panel reradiation is considered through a surface-to-surface radiation model and natural convection loss to the surrounding air is captured in a representative fluid domain surrounding the receiver. The resulting temperature fields from the CFD analysis are used as inputs for a thermoelastic mechanical model with representative boundary conditions. With the resultant temperature and stress fields, a creep-fatigue damage and lifetime analysis is performed using the linear damage accumulation (LDA) theory. The Manson-Coffin formula and Larson Miller correlation are used to calculate the fatigue and creep, respectively. A maximum damage (corresponding to a 30-year service life) is defined for design assessment. The model was first developed and verified in detail by comparing with published results in the literature (temperature and stress profiles and distributions, and creep/fatigue damage fractions) for tubular solar receivers with supercritical carbon dioxide as the working fluid. It was then implemented to model a planar-cavity receiver with various design parameters. Specifically, three different design geometries are considered, and the results show that a maximum temperature of approximately 1200 K could be reached for each design with the given incident solar flux, with the main difference being the distribution of these temperatures. Preliminary resulting stresses for the small-scale prototype without design optimization vary from 20 MPa to 250 MPa for each design, with the maximum stresses occurring on the front face and concave geometry on the side of the panel. In future work, the developed methodology shown here will be applied to analyze a full-scale (50-150 MWth) receiver.

concentrated solar power↗

NASA NTRS2001

Semi-Classical Models for Virtual Antiparticle Pairs

Virtual particle-antiparticle pairs of massive elementary particle& are predicted in Quantum Field Theory (QFT) to appear from the vacuum and annihilate each other again within their Heisenberg lifetimes h/4mc(exp 2). In this work, semiclassical models of this process - for the cases of massive leptons, quarks, and the massive weak bosons W and Z - are constructed. It is shown that the dynamical lifetime of the particle- antiparticle system in each case equals the Heisenberg lifetime to good approximation, and obeys appropriate quantization conditions on the field fluctuation action. In other words, the dynamical lifetime of the semiclassical model agrees with QED and QCD to good approximation. But the formula for the dynamical lifetime in each model includes the force strength coupling constant (e in the lepton case, alpha(sup s) (q(exp 2)) in the quark cases), while the Heisenberg lifetime formula does not. Observing the agreement of the Heisenberg and dynamical lifetimes, we may derive the QED and QCD coupling constants in terms of h, c, and numerical factors only.

Batchelor, David↗

NASA NTRS1978

Asteroid collisions, craters, regoliths, and lifetimes

Laboratory experiments and computer modeling are used to predict the development of regoliths on all asteroids more than a few tens of kilometers in diameter, allowing for a wide range in the intrinsic strength of asteroidal surface materials. The high frequency of interasteroid collisions requires nearly all asteroids to be fragments of precursors.

Chapman, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Aerosol Absorption in Global Models From AeroCom Phase III

Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m 2 g −1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.

Aerosol absorption↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lifetime of actin-dependent protein nanoclusters

Protein nanoclusters (PNCs) are dynamic collections of a few proteins that spatially organize in nanometer-length clusters. PNCs are one of the principal forms of spatial organization of membrane proteins, and they have been shown or hypothesized to be important in various cellular processes, including cell signaling. PNCs show remarkable diversity in size, shape, and lifetime. In particular, the lifetime of PNCs can vary over a wide range of timescales. The diversity in size and shape can be explained by the interaction of the clustering proteins with the actin cytoskeleton or the lipid membrane, but very little is known about the processes that determine the lifetime of the nanoclusters. In this paper, using mathematical modeling of the cluster dynamics, we model the biophysical processes that determine the lifetime of actin-dependent PNCs. In particular, we investigated the role of actin aster fragmentation, which had been suggested to be a key determinant of the PNC lifetime, and we found that it is important only for a small class of PNCs. A simple extension of our model allowed us to investigate the kinetics of protein-ligand interaction near PNCs. We found an anomalous increase in the lifetime of ligands near PNCs, which agrees remarkably well with experimental data on RAS-RAF kinetics. In particular, analysis of the RAS-RAF data through our model provides falsifiable predictions and novel hypotheses that will not only shed light on the role of RAS-RAF kinetics in various cancers, but also will be useful in studying membrane protein clustering in general.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗