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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Patient-Specific Mathematical Model of the Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma Microenvironment

The interactions between cells and molecules in the tumor microenvironment can give insight into the initiation and progression of tumors and their optimal treatment options. In this paper, we developed an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mathematical model of the interaction network of key players in the clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) microenvironment. We then performed a global gradient-based sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of the most sensitive parameters of the model on the number of cancer cells. The results indicate that parameters related to IL-6 have high a impact on cancer cell growth, such that decreasing the level of IL-6 can remarkably slow the tumor’s growth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments for Sustainable Rare Earth Recovery from Coal Byproducts using Biosorption

Coal byproducts could be a promising feedstock to alleviate the supply risk of critical rare earth elements (REEs) due to their abundance and REE content. Herein, we investigated the economic and environmental potential of producing REEs from coal fly ash and lignite through an integrated process of leaching, biosorption, and oxalic precipitation on the basis of experimental data and modeling results. Two microbe immobilization systems (polyethylene glycol diacrylate (PEGDA) microbe beads and Si sol–gels) were examined for their efficiency in immobilizing Arthrobacter nicotianae to selectively recover REEs. Techno-economic analysis revealed that North Dakota lignite could be a profitable feedstock when Si sol–gel is used due to its high cell loading and REE adsorption capacity as well as high reuse cycles. Life cycle analysis revealed that Si sol–gel-based biosorption could be more environmental friendly than the prevailing REE production in China due to the use of less toxic chemicals. However, fly ash sourced from Powder River Basin coals was neither profitable nor environmentally sustainable, primarily due to low solubility of high-value scandium at an economical pulp density (100 g ash/L of acid solution). To further improve the proposed biotechnology, future research could focus on scandium recovery, leaching efficiency at a high pulp density, and reuse cycles of the immobilized microbes.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

As integral components of any power plant, transformers supply the generated electricity to the grid. However, a transformer’s cellulose-based paper insulation and the mineral oil in which it is immersed break down over time under standard operating conditions—or more rapidly due to potential faults within the system. As the transformer’s mineral oil breaks down, gases are released that can be measured and monitored. This technical brief exhibits a collection of diagnostic and prognostic techniques that utilities can adopt in lieu of labor-intensive periodic preventive maintenance routines. Furthermore, prognostic models have been incorporated using the latest version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard (IEEE, 2019) for dissolved gas analysis (DGA), thus expanding it to include estimation of the time to maintenance. Overall, four different methodologies are explained, each of which aids in determining a transformer’s state of health. These methodologies include the Chendong model, the IEEE thermal life consumption model (IEEE, 2012), a diagnostic model for DGA, and a prognostic model for DGA that uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. An additional improvement for estimating missing system parameters by using monitoring data (i.e., a tool for parameter estimation utilizing Powell’s method) is presented, enabling the IEEE thermal life consumption model to benefit not only the collaborating power plant, but also the power industry at large.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Industry case studies: Finance

This article, the third in a series on the U.S. Department of Energy and IDEA collaboration, focuses on financial strategies used by institutions to support district energy system modernization and decarbonization. It highlights how effective funding models, long-term cost analysis, and leadership support are critical to implementing large-scale infrastructure upgrades. The case studies show different approaches to financing. Ball State University demonstrates how life-cycle cost analysis and phased funding—supported by state funding, bonds, and grants—enabled a transition to geothermal energy. Penn State’s Hershey Medical Center emphasizes the importance of financial leadership, shifting from reactive budgeting to data-driven, proactive investment in infrastructure. The University of Washington highlights how comprehensive data collection and analytics can justify investments and even create self-sustaining funding mechanisms like green revolving funds. Overall, the article shows that combining strong financial planning, data-driven decision-making, and innovative funding approaches is essential for advancing sustainable district energy systems while managing high upfront costs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Do Remote Camera Arrangements and Image Capture Settings Improve Individual Identification of Golden Eagles?

Individual identification of animals from camera traps has become an important task in wildlife research, but camera deployment methods often do not facilitate this important undertaking. Identification of individual golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is possible using uniquely marked rectrices, but no studies have explored methods to maximize the rate of individual identification from camera images. Furthermore, our objectives were to assess whether different camera heights (1 m vs. 3 m), image capture settings (one image after a 1-min delay vs. burst of 5 images after a 30 sec delay), and arrangements relative to bait (dorsally vs. ventrally aimed) affected views of rectrices on golden eagles and our ability to identify individuals. We conducted our study from 15 December 2016 to 3 March 2017 on the Savannah River Site, South Carolina. First, we developed a scoring system based on views of rectrices and used a linear mixed-effects model to compare image scores among different camera arrangements and image settings. Next, after identifying individual eagles, we used generalized linear mixed-effects models to compare total individual eagle detections, total days an individual was detected, and probability of obtaining an unknown individual identification among camera arrangements and settings. Overall, we scored a total of 27,499 images, with 8,083 providing views of marked rectrices that allowed identification of 18 individual eagles. Average image scores and proportion of images suitable for individual identification were higher from elevated (3 m) camera arrangements than standard arrangements (1 m) across sites. Regardless of camera height, faster frequency of image capture provided more images that could be used to identify individuals and the most trap days per individual. Researchers and managers should consider deploying elevated cameras traps with faster frequency of image capture to improve data quality and potential for analysis of golden eagle populations and trends across the species’ range.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Preliminary Results and Lessons Learned

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado’s “Can Do Colorado” initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, starting in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The nonmotorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO 2 . Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Procedure and Preliminary Results

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado's "Can Do Colorado" initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, start in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The non-motorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO2. Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Respirator Cartridge Performance on Mixed Vapors from Hanford Tank Headspaces and Exhausters - 20427

Between 2016 and 2018, the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor - Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) - conducted a series of tests of air-purifying respirator (APR) chemical cartridges commonly used at Hanford tank farms to determine the period of time for which the cartridges would provide adequate performance when used in APRs and powered-air-purifying respirators (PAPRs) to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of vapors exiting tank headspaces. Although cartridge manufacturers provide service life estimating tools for individual chemical compounds, the projected performance of these cartridges on complex vapor mixtures is not available, and the adequacy of APRs for tank farm applications represents an important workforce concern. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing cartridge service life. The primary function of the WRPS Cartridge Test Program was to obtain objective data to determine service lives for the APR and PAPR cartridges used at Hanford tank farms. WRPS contracted with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to analyze the test data and offer an independent analysis of and recommendations based on respirator cartridge performance. A total of 28 APR and 10 PAPR cartridge tests were conducted between 2016 and 2018 on 12 different tank headspaces and tank farm exhauster slipstreams. Two APR cartridges from SCOTT (now 3M) and two PAPR cartridges from MSA Safety, Inc. and 3M were evaluated using a cartridge testing system specifically designed to measure and monitor test conditions and sample cartridge inlet and outlet vapor streams for important chemical compounds. Testing focused on analysis of approximately 61 tank vapor chemicals of potential concern (COPCs) that have been previously detected in tank vapors at levels above 10% of their occupational exposure limits (OELs). Each test was conducted over 16 hours of run time. Evidence of chemical breakthrough was assessed by comparing inlet and outlet COPC concentrations over the duration of each test. The breakthrough threshold was normally defined as exceeding 10% of the compounds OEL at the cartridge outlet. Ammonia breakthrough was observed in a majority of the cartridge tests and occurred earlier than breakthrough of any other chemical compound. Several other COPCs did exhibit breakthrough behavior, including mercury, 1,3-butadiene, furan, 2,5 dihydrofuran, and N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), but only in a very limited number of cartridge tests and only after ammonia breakthrough had occurred. In addition, tests results suggest that breakthrough of some of these COPCs may have been affected by competition with and breakthrough of other non-COPC organics, such as ethanol and acetone, with substantially lower toxicological hazard. Comparison of cartridge manufacturers' service life estimates with the experimentally derived breakthrough times indicates that manufacturers' estimates are generally conservative, even in the presence of the complex mixed vapor streams experienced in these tests. With consideration of appropriate safety margins, these results provide valuable insights on cartridge performance to inform industrial hygiene professionals in establishing appropriate cartridge change-out schedules for APR and PAPR use in the Hanford tank farms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat Transfer Experiments of a 1st Stage Blade Cascade for Supercritical CO2 Oxy-Combustion Turbine Application

The results of internally cooled 1st stage blade (S1B) cascade testing in a supercritical CO2 environment is presented. The turbine blade design has been previously established for the end application of an oxy-combustion turbine operating in the Allam-Fetvedt cycle with turbine inlet conditions of 305 bar and 1150°C. The internally cooled blade features leading edge (LE) region impingement cooling, mid-section ribbed serpentine passages, and a pin-finned trailing edge (TE) region before cooling ejection holes. The geometry for the tested blade cascade has a cooled central blade with un-cooled blades on either side to match flowpath areas of the actual turbine. The flowpath reuses internal components previously employed for mid-section region ribbed serpentine passage experiments that established Nusselt number enhancement ratios over a range of Reynolds numbers from 100,000-400,000. New components include flow conditioning plates upstream and downstream of the blade cascade to adequately represent the flow field and blade external heat transfer coefficient profiles for the actual turbine. The cooled central blade utilizes uniform crystal temperature sensors (UCTS) with six sensors each on the blade pressure and suction surfaces distributed radially and from LE to TE. The post-processed UCTS quantified the maximum wall temperature seen at each installed sensor location. The test procedure consisted of establishing supercritical CO2 cooling flow temperature and flow rate and maintaining it throughout the test. The flow rate aims to match that for the actual in-service turbine blade design and is maintained through an orifice restriction to keep the pressure differential between internal cooling flow and external hot flow nearly constant. For the sCO2 flow path external to the blade, temperatures were ramped throughout the test via control of the test loop’s natural gas burner heater. The maximum temperature seen was 468°C and held constant for a duration of 10 minutes at which the blade metal temperature was predicted to be at its maximum before ramping down. For the turbine blade design for service inlet conditions, external flow path computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results and an internal cooling 1-D thermal and hydraulic flow network model using experimentally validated correlations served as thermal finite element (FE) boundary conditions to predict blade metal temperatures. These predicted temperatures were subsequently utilized in a structural FE model to predict blade life ratings dictated by Haynes 282 creep strength data, having a strong dependence on temperature. The boundary conditions experienced during testing are used in the same workflow and compared to the experimental results, with the goal of validating the analysis methodology and providing insight on the uncertainty in local metal temperature predictions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life-cycle analysis of sustainable aviation fuel production through catalytic hydrothermolysis

Catalytic hydrothermolysis (CH) is a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway that has been recently approved for use in aircraft fuel production. In alignment with broader sustainable aviation goals, SAF production through CH requires a quantitative assessment of carbon intensity (CI) impacts. In this study, a current-day life-cycle analysis (LCA) was performed on SAF produced via CH to determine the CI. Various oily feedstocks were considered, including vegetable oils (soybean, carinata, camelina and canola) and low-burden oils and greases (corn oil, yellow grease and brown grease). Life-cycle inventory data were collected on all processes within the CH LCA boundary: feedstock cultivation and/or collection, preprocessing, hydrothermal cleanup and CH, biocrude refining, fuel transportation and end use through combustion. Baseline results show that the CH-produced SAF can be generated with CI reductions ranging from 48 to 82% compared with conventional jet fuel. Modest improvements to CI can be achieved through incremental changes to the brown grease CH process, such as relaxing the dewatering specification and implementing renewable natural gas and electricity, which could decrease the CI from 22.9 to 7.9 g CO 2 e/MJ. Total CH fuel production potential was also assessed on the basis of current or near-future feedstock availability and CI. The total biofuel production potential of CH (SAF and renewable fuel co-products) in the US sums to approximately 3487 million gallons per year, with 97% of these volumes having a CI below 50% of that for petroleum jet fuel. The study shows that from an LCA perspective, CH offers a viable SAF pathway that is comparable with existing SAF pathways like hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BLAST-Lite (Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool - Lite) [SWR-22-69] Related to: BLAST aka: BLAST-Py

Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Toolsuite (BLAST) provides a library of battery lifetime and degradation models for various commercial lithium-ion batteries from recent years. Degradation models are identified from publicly available lab-based aging data using NREL's battery life model identification toolkit. The battery life models predicted the expected lifetime of batteries used in mobile or stationary applications as functions of their temperature and use (state-of-charge, depth-of-discharge, and charge/discharge rates). Model implementation is in both Python and MATLAB programming languages. The MATLAB code also provides example applications (stationary storage and EV), climate data, and simple thermal management options. For more information on battery health diagnostics, prediction, and optimization, see NREL's Battery Lifespan webpage.

Smith, Kandler↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of pressure points in modern power systems using transfer entropy

Power shortages disrupt daily life, economic activity, and essential services. In modern power systems, weather is an increasingly important driver of reliability: high temperatures raise demand and limit transmission capacity, and calm or cloudy periods reduce wind and solar supply. Using a data-driven analysis, this study identifies grid infrastructure whose operating patterns help predict power shortages. The results show that reliability risks often emerge from interacting stresses across generation, transmission, and demand, rather than from single bottlenecks. By clarifying how system stress propagates through the grid, this diagnostic perspective helps explain why shortages occur under specific conditions and can complement traditional planning and operational tools to support adaptive reliability strategies, targeted monitoring, and coordinated infrastructure investments.

power systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV in the circular economy, a dynamic framework analyzing technology evolution and reliability impacts

Rapid, terawatt-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) modules is required to decarbonize the energy sector. Despite efficiency and manufacturing improvements, material demand will increase, eventually resulting in waste as deployed modules reach end of life. Circular choices for decommissioned modules could reduce waste and offset virgin materials. We present PV ICE, an open-source python framework using modern reliability data, which tracks module material flows throughout PV life cycles. We provide dynamic baselines capturing PV module and material evolution. PV ICE includes multimodal end of life, circular pathways, and manufacturing losses. We present a validation of the framework and a sensitivity analysis. Results show that manufacturing efficiencies strongly affect material demand, representing >20% of the 9 million tons of waste cumulatively expected by 2050. Reliability and circular pathways represent the best opportunities to reduce waste by 56% while maintaining installed capacity. Shorter-lived modules generate 81% more waste and reduce 2050 capacity by 6%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗