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At least 199 records · Page 11

Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development With the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A Case Study Over the Southern Great Plains

This study demonstrates a specific application of the hierarchical system development (HSD) approach to investigate, analyze, and attribute model issues within the Unified Forecast System (UFS), with a focus on process isolation. By evaluating a non‐precipitating, shallow cumulus case at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in the UFS global forecast against the observation, the investigation identifies a warmer and deeper daytime convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) and misrepresented nocturnal PBL transition. Hypothesis testing, which employs the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) single‐column model (SCM) and uses the same physics as the UFS global model, confirms that these issues are attributed to the model physics and initialization. Specifically, misrepresented PBL processes are linked to problematic surface condition and a lack of cloud formation, which may stem from deficiencies in PBL and cloud microphysics parameterizations and their interactions. The UFS initial condition contributes to an earlier, excessively collapsed daytime convective boundary layer and a lack of decoupling between the stable boundary layer and residual layer late in the afternoon. This work introduces an avenue for the community to engage with the application of HSD, along with the CCPP and CCPP SCM, to understand the interplay of model physics, disentangle the roles of model components, as well as facilitate model and forecast improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Pseudoenzyme β‐Amylase9 From Arabidopsis Activates α‐Amylase3: A Possible Mechanism to Promote Stress‐Induced Starch Degradation

ABSTRACT Starch accumulation in plants provides carbon for nighttime use, for regrowth after periods of dormancy, and for times of stress. Both ɑ‐ and β‐amylases (AMYs and BAMs, respectively) catalyze starch hydrolysis, but their functional roles are unclear. Moreover, the presence of catalytically inactive amylases that show starch excess phenotypes when deleted presents questions on how starch degradation is regulated. Plants lacking one of these catalytically inactive β‐amylases, BAM9, have enhanced starch accumulation when combined with mutations in BAM1 and BAM3, the primary starch degrading BAMs in response to stress and at night, respectively. BAM9 has been reported to be transcriptionally induced by stress although the mechanism for BAM9 function is unclear. From yeast two‐hybrid experiments, we identified the plastid‐localized AMY3 as a potential interaction partner for BAM9. We found that BAM9 interacted with AMY3 in vitro and that BAM9 enhances AMY3 activity about three‐fold. Modeling of the AMY3‐BAM9 complex predicted a previously undescribed alpha–alpha hairpin in AMY3 that could serve as a potential interaction site. Additionally, AMY3 lacking the alpha–alpha hairpin is unaffected by BAM9. Structural analysis of AMY3 showed that it can form a homodimer in solution and that BAM9 appears to replace one of the AMY3 monomers to form a heterodimer. The presence of both BAM9 and AMY3 in many vascular plant lineages, along with model‐based evidence that they heterodimerize, suggests that the interaction is conserved. Collectively these data suggest that BAM9 is a pseudoamylase that activates AMY3 in response to cellular stress, possibly facilitating stress recovery.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Zeolite Nanosheets Stabilize Catalyst Particles to Promote the Growth of Thermodynamically Unfavorable, Small–Diameter Carbon Nanotubes

A challenge in the synthesis of single–wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) is the lack of control over the formation and evolution of catalyst nanoparticles and the lack of control over their size or chirality. Here, zeolite MFI nanosheets (MFI–Ns) are used to keep cobalt (Co) nanoparticles stable during prolonged annealing conditions. Environmental transmission electron microscopy (ETEM) shows that the MFI–Ns can influence the size and shape of nanoparticles via particle/support registry, which leads to the preferential docking of nanoparticles to four or fewer pores and to the regulation of the SWCNT synthesis products. The resulting SWCNT population exhibits a narrow diameter distribution and SWCNTs of nearly all chiral angles, including sub–nm zigzag (ZZ) and near–ZZ tubes. Theoretical simulations reveal that the growth of these unfavorable tubes from unsupported catalysts leads to the rapid encapsulation of catalyst nanoparticles bearing them; their presence in the growth products suggests that the MFI–Ns prevent nanoparticle encapsulation and prologue ZZ and near–ZZ SWCNT growth. Furthermore, these results thus present a path forward for controlling nanoparticle formation and evolution, for achieving size– and shape–selectivity at high temperature, and for controlling SWCNT synthesis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A review of modelling techniques for floating offshore wind turbines

Modelling floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) is challenging due to the strong coupling between the aerodynamics of the turbine and the hydrodynamics of the floating platform. Physical testing at scale is faced with the additional challenge of the scaling mismatch between Froude number and Reynolds number due to working in the two fluid domains, air and water. In the drive for cost-reduction of floating wind energy, designers may be seeking to move towards high-fidelity numerical modelling as a substitute for physical testing. However, the numerical engineering tools typically used for FOWT modelling are considered as mid-fidelity to low-fidelity tools, and currently lack the level of accuracy required to do so. Furthermore, there is a lack of operational FOWT data available for further development and validation. High-fidelity tools, such as CFD, have greater accuracy but are cumbersome tools and still require validation. Physical scale model testing therefore continues to play an essential role in the development of FOWTs both as a source of validation data for numerical models and as an important development step along the path to commercialization of all platform concepts. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of both numerical modelling and physical FOWT scale model testing approaches and to provide guidance on the selection of the most appropriate approach (or combination of approaches). The current state-of-the-art will be discussed along with current research trends and areas for further investigation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗

$\mathrm{RADICAL}$-Pilot and $\mathrm{PMIx}$/$\mathrm{PRRTE}$: Executing Heterogeneous Workloads at Large Scale on Partitioned $\mathrm{HPC}$ Resources

Execution of heterogeneous workflows on high-performance computing (HPC) platforms present unprecedented resource management and execution coordination challenges for runtime systems. Task heterogeneity increases the complexity of resource and execution management, limiting the scalability and efficiency of workflow execution. Re-source partitioning and distribution of tasks execution over portioned re-sources promises to address those problems but we lack an experimental evaluation of its performance at scale. Here this paper provides a performance evaluation of the Process Management Interface for Exascale (PMIx) and its reference implementation PRRTE on the leadership-class HPC plat-form Summit, when integrated into a pilot-based runtime system called RADICAL-Pilot. We partition resources across multiple PRRTE Distributed Virtual Machine (DVM) environments, responsible for launching tasks via the PMIx interface. We experimentally measure the work-load execution performance in terms of task scheduling/launching rate and distribution of DVM task placement times, DVM startup and termination overheads on the Summit leadership-class HPC platform. Integrated solution with PMIx/PRRTE enables using an abstracted, standardized set of interfaces for orchestrating the launch process, dynamic process management and monitoring capabilities. It extends scaling capabilities allowing to overcome a limitation of other launching mechanisms (e.g., JSM/LSF). Explored different DVM setup configurations provide insights on DVM performance and a layout to leverage it. Our experimental results show that heterogeneous workload of 65,500 tasks on 2048 nodes, and partitioned across 32 DVMs, runs steady with resource utilization not lower than 52%. While having less concurrently executed tasks resource utilization is able to reach up to 85%, based on results of heterogeneous workload of 8200 tasks on 256 nodes and 2 DVMs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mixed gauge-global symmetries, elliptic modes, and black hole thermodynamics in Hořava-Lifshitz gravity

In Hořava-Lifshitz gravity, a putative consistent theory of quantum gravity for which there is evidence for both black hole thermodynamics and a holographic construction, spacetime is endowed with a preferred dynamical spacelike foliation. The theory has a leaf reparameterization symmetry that is neither global nor local gauge, hyperbolic and elliptic equations of motion, a lack of splittability, and universal horizon black hole solutions. The reparameterization symmetry is “mixed”: it is a local symmetry in one coordinate yet global on each leaf. More broadly it is an example of both unfree and projectable gauge symmetries. The mixed symmetry and associated charge has not yet been accounted for in calculations of universal horizon thermodynamics in Hořava-Lifshitz gravity. This has led to problems, in particular the failure of the first law in a class of asymptotically AdS solutions where the normal to the leaves of the foliation is not aligned with the time translation Killing vector at infinity. We show how the dynamics of the charge corresponding to this symmetry coupled with the other features above resolves this issue. We then briefly comment how this mixed symmetry, the corresponding charge, and the elliptic equations of motion also conspire to evade recent holographic arguments for only local gauge fields in consistent theories of quantum gravity due to the lack of splittability of the elliptic equation and associated mode.

Global Symmetries↗

What Can and Cannot Be Expected from Tokamak Fusion

This article is a response to the analysis of nuclear fusion by V. V. Orlov and L. I. Ponomarev in their article “Nuclear problems of thermonuclear power generation” [Atomnaya Energiya, 124, No. 2, 105–110 (2018); Atomic Energy, 124, No. 2, 129–138 (2018)], pointing to the decades-long lack-of-progress in thermonuclear energy research. Here, the authors of the article attribute the lack-of-progress to fundamental problems in the nuclear aspects of thermonuclear fusion. Here, the reason for the current stagnation – essentially, the degeneration of thermonuclear fusion that commenced in the 1950s–1970s with rapid development – is presented. The scientific investigations have been and remain within the scope of the Tamm–Sakharov concept of toroidal plasma confinement, which provided the first impetus to progress but soon showed its insufficiency. An additional element is considered – the suppression of plasma cooling by using moving liquid lithium to pump out plasma. For tokamaks this opens up new prospects for obtaining burning plasma suitable for use in hybrid (fission-fusion) reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Minerals limit the deep soil respiration response to warming in a tropical Andisol

Tropical regions hold one third of the world’s soil organic carbon, but few experiments have warmed tropical soils in situ. The vulnerability of these soils to climate change-induced losses is uncertain with many hypothesizing these soils would be less sensitive to climate change because already-high temperatures in tropical systems might limit microbial sensitivity or due to increased mineral protection of organic carbon in highly weathered tropical soils. Here we present the results of a deep soil (0–100 cm) warming experiment in a tropical Andisol. Andisols can store large, persistent pools of soil carbon that are protected from decomposition by poorly and non-crystalline minerals (PNCM). In 20 cm depth intervals, we measured key soil properties including carbon, nitrogen, pH, PNCM, bacterial and fungal richness along with temperature, moisture, and CO 2 production. Over a year of soil warming, CO 2 production significantly increased by 50–300% per degree of warming, but only in the top 40 cm of the soil profile in contrast to the results of other deep soil warming experiments. Multimodal analysis supported our hypothesis that high concentrations of PNCM was the primary driver of the lack of CO 2 response, followed by high relative soil moisture and low bacterial richness, which may be a proxy for organic carbon availability. The lack of elevated CO 2 production in response to warming suggests a limited positive feedback to climate change in Andisols driven by their strong mineral protection of organic matter. Therefore, Andisols should be considered high priority restoration or protection areas when considering the management of soil carbon stocks as part of climate action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial abundances and carbon use under ambient temperature or experimental warming in a southern boreal peatland

Abstract Organic peat soils occupy relatively little of the global land surface area but store vast amounts of soil carbon in northern latitudes where climate is warming at a rapid pace. Warming may result in strong positive feedbacks of carbon loss and global climate change driven by microbial processes if warming alters the balance between primary productivity and decomposition. To elucidate effects of warming on the microbial communities mediating peat carbon dynamics, we explored the abundance of broad microbial groups and their source of carbon (i.e. old carbon versus more recently fixed photosynthate) using microbial lipid analysis (δ 13 C PLFA) of peat samples under ambient temperatures and before/after initiation of experimental peat warming (+ 2.25, + 4.5, + 6.75, and + 9 °C). This analysis occurred over a profile to 2 m depth in an undrained, ombrotrophic peat bog in northern Minnesota. We found that the total microbial biomass and individual indicator lipid abundances were stratified by depth and strongly correlated to temperature under ambient conditions. However, under experimental warming, statistically significant effects of temperature on the microbial community were sporadic and inconsistent. For example, 3 months after experimental warming the relative abundance of Gram-negative bacterial indicators across depth combined and > 50 cm depth and Gram-positive bacterial indicators at 20–50 cm depth showed significant positive relationships to temperature. At that same timepoint, however, the relative abundance of Actinobacterial indicators across depth showed a significant negative relationship to temperature. After 10 months of experimental warming, the relative abundance of fungal biomarkers was positively related to temperature in all depths combined, and the absolute abundance of anaerobic bacteria declined with increasing temperature in the 20–50 cm depth interval. The lack of observed response in the broader microbial community may suggest that at least initially, microbial community structure with peat depth in these peatlands is driven more by bulk density and soil water content than temperature. Alternatively, the lack of broad microbial community response may simply represent a lag period, with more change to come in the future. The long-term trajectory of microbial response to warming in this ecosystem then could either be direct, after this initial lag time, or indirect through other physical or biogeochemical changes in the peat profile. These initial results provide an important baseline against which to measure long-term microbial community and carbon-cycling responses to warming and elevated CO 2 .

Felice, Mark↗

Advanced mass balance characterization and fractionation of algal biomass composition

Abstract Opportunities associated with biomass production and bioproduct isolation from algae-derived feedstocks are plentiful and promising; however, there are challenges associated with realizing these applications. One of the most important, and often overlooked, challenges is the lack of availability of a strong foundation of compositional analysis methods validated on microalgal biomass. Currently, compositional analysis in algae is dominated by the use of interference-prone methods, a lack of full mass balance accounting, and the use of top-down approaches that bin all unaccounted-for mass into a single category, such as carbohydrates. We present here an approach based on a bottom-up algal biomass characterization aimed at moving towards, and highlighting the importance of, full and accurate mass closure to achieve the maximum economic potential from a sustainable and renewable feedstock. Algal biomass representing three genera, Nannochloropsis , Scenedesmus , and Monoraphidium , was subjected to a cell rupture and fractionation process, followed by detailed characterization of each fraction to determine the partitioning of measured and unknown components. The goal of this work is to identify where the missing components partition, and develop a strategy to close the mass balance or identify the unknowns, while utilizing a rigorous characterization approach for characterizing algal biomass. Although only 75–80% of the biomass was accounted for, the fractionation approach utilized here provides key insight into possible chemical components for future investigations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using defects as a ‘fossil record’ to help interpret complex processes during additive manufacturing: as applied to raster-scanned electron beam powder bed additively manufactured Ti–6Al–4V

Abstract Defects in parts produced by additive manufacturing, instead of simply being perceived as deleterious, can act as important sources of information associated with the complex physical processes that occur during materials deposition and subsequent thermal cycles. Indeed, they act as materials-state ‘fossil’ records of the dynamic AM process. The approach of using defects as epoch-like records of prior history has been developed while studying additively manufactured Ti–6Al–4V and has given new insights into processes that may otherwise remain either obscured or unquantified. Analogous to ‘epochs,’ the evolution of these defects often is characterized by physics that span across a temporal length scale. To demonstrate this approach, a broad range of analyses including optical and electron microscopy, X-ray computed tomography, energy-dispersive spectroscopy, and electron backscatter diffraction have been used to characterize a raster-scanned electron beam Ti–6Al–4V sample. These analysis techniques provide key characteristics of defects such as their morphology, location within the part, complex compositional fields interacting with the defects, and structures on the free surfaces of defects. Observed defects have been classified as banding, spherical porosity, and lack of fusion. Banding is directly related to preferential evaporation of Al, which has an influence on mechanical properties. Lack-of-fusion defects can be used to understand columnar grain growth, fluid flow of melt pools, humping, and spattering events. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Revisiting Wagner’s Criteria to Predict Establishment and Retention of Alumina Scales on Ternary NiCrAl Alloys

Despite the advent of numerical modeling approaches and high-performance computing infrastructure, the design and development of corrosion-resistant high temperature alloys (> 500 °C) continue to be largely empirical and typically involve extensive experimentation. This is mainly due to the lack of a single unified physics-based model that can address the impact of multiple competing factors such as time, environment, alloy composition, microstructure, and geometry. The classical Wagner’s criteria have been foundational to estimate the minimum concentrations required of an oxide-forming element to establish and sustain a protective oxide scale. However, the formulation is primarily limited to lower-order alloy systems (binary alloys) and ignores the time dependence of subsurface compositional changes in the alloy. The lack of key data on the temperature and composition dependence of the solubility and transport of oxidants in multicomponent-multiphase alloys further exacerbates the problem. In the present work, a few of these limitations were addressed using a flux-based approach (FLAP) which tracks the spatiotemporal evolution of the fundamental flux balance between oxygen and the oxide-forming elements to enable the prediction of the formation of an external alumina scale in ternary NiCrAl alloys. In conclusion, the modeling results were validated with the literature findings and additional experimental work conducted in the present work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microstructural Development in Inconel 718 Nickel-Based Superalloy Additively Manufactured by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Excellent weldability and high temperature stability make Inconel 718 (IN718) one of the most popular alloys to be produced by additive manufacturing. Here in this study, we investigated the effects of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) parameters on the microstructure and relative density of IN718. The samples were fabricated with independently varied laser power (125 - 350W), laser scan speed (200 - 2200 mm/s), and laser scan rotation (0° - 90°). Archimedes’ method, optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy were employed to assess the influence of LPBF parameters on the relative density and microstructure. Optimal processing windows were identified for a wide range of processing parameters and relative density greater than 99.5% was achieved using volumetric energy density between 50 and 100 J/mm3. Microstructural features including melt pool geometry, lack of fusion defect, keyhole porosity, and sub-grain cellular microstructure were examined and quantified to correlate to LPBF parameters. A simple empirical model was postulated to relate relative sample density and LPBF volumetric energy density. Melt pool dimensions were quantitatively measured and compared to estimations based on Rosenthal solution, which yielded a good agreement with the width, but underestimated the depth, particularly at high energy input, due to lack of consideration for keyhole mode. In addition, the sub-grain cellular-dendritic microstructure in the as-built samples was observed to decrease with increasing laser scan speed. Quantification of the sub-micron cellular-dendritic microstructure yielded estimated cooling rate in the order of 10 5 – 10 7 K/s.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Load shuffling during creep deformation of an additively manufactured AlCuMnZr alloy

Here, the high-temperature deformation behavior of an additively manufactured Al-Cu-Mn-Zr alloy is evaluated in the as-fabricated and heat-treated states using traditional ex-situ and in-situ neutron diffraction creep experiments performed at 300 °C. The dominant reinforcement phase in the alloy, θ-Al 2 Cu, despite its high volume fraction of ~10%, does not provide load transfer strengthening during creep deformation. Instead, the lattice strain evolution suggests a new mechanism we term “load shuffling” wherein the initial load is transferred away from precipitate-free zones along the grain boundaries where most of the θ-Al 2 Cu particles are located to precipitate-strengthened grain interiors. Notwithstanding the lack of load transfer strengthening, the as-fabricated AM Al-Cu-Mn-Zr alloy still possesses improved creep resistance at 300 °C relative to a cast alloy with similar composition. The proposed load shuffling mechanism explains the lack of observed L1 2 -Al 3 Zr strengthening at 300 °C and helps identify several strategies for improvement of elevated-temperature mechanical response of AM Al alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation-based Performance Evaluation of Model Predictive Control for Building Energy Systems

The performance of model predictive control (MPC) can be significantly affected by different choices of controller parameters such as the time intervals for model discretization and control sampling. Due to the lack of a systematic understanding on how these parameters affect control performance, they are usually selected arbitrarily in practice.In this paper, the combined impacts of selected time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on the performance of MPC are comprehensively investigated for the first time through detailed simulations. Specifically, a typical MPC strategy is first designed to improve building operations based on a reduced-order model of building dynamics. Then, the performance of the designed MPC is evaluated against different choices of time intervals for model discretization and control sampling on a simulated office building. The detailed simulation results reveal that the time interval for model discretization has a much greater influence on the performance of MPC than the time interval for control sampling. Although the time interval for control sampling usually receives more attentions in practice, it turns out that the time interval for model discretization affects the prediction performance, cost saving, and computation time simultaneously and more significantly. Therefore, the simulation-based performance evaluation presented here sheds light on the impacts of different time intervals and facilitates their selection for practical applications of MPC to building operations

Huang, Sen↗

A review of machine learning in building load prediction

The surge of machine learning in recent years has been empowering engineer modeling in various fields. The decreasing hardware cost, increasing data accessibility, and advances of building automation system (BAS) allow the collection and storage of a significant amount of building operation data. The two facts provide great opportunities of applying machine learning to building energy systems modeling and analysis. There are a great number of research papers on this topic but there lacks a comprehensive and general review to summarize the current development, limitations, gaps and future trend. In this review paper series, machine learning techniques in building energy system modeling and analysis are reviewed under the organization and logic of the machine learning definition by Tom M. Mitchell: a computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to some class of tasks T and performance measure P if its performance at tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E. This paper is the first part of the review paper series, which focuses on building load prediction. First, the applications of building load prediction model (task T) are reviewed. Then, the modeling algorithms improving machine learning performance and accuracy (performance P) are reviewed. At the same time, the literature on the data perspective for modeling (experience E), including data engineering from sensors level to data level, pre-processing, feature extraction and selection, is reviewed. Finally, what is well-studied and what is lacking but with great potential are concluded; the gaps between present and future utilization of machine learning techniques are identified; the future trend and development are also predicted. The target readers of this paper are not only researchers from the building side who can get exposed to cutting edge machine learning tools, but also those from machine learning side who can understand the potential and challenge to apply machine learning in buildings.

Liang, Zhang↗

Implementation and validation of optimal start control strategy for air conditioners and heat pumps

Commercial buildings are responsible for approximately 20 % of the total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Over 85 % of these buildings lack building automation systems, and many are small (<50,000 square feet), underserved, and use rooftop units (RTUs) for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning needs. Because these buildings lack proper energy management systems, several operational deficiencies lead to excess energy consumption. Studies have shown that managing the RTUs’ heating and cooling set points, schedules, setbacks, and optimal start can result in a 20 % to 25 % reduction in electricity consumption in small commercial buildings. These buildings typically use fixed schedules to start the RTUs 60 to 120 min before occupancy begins, which results in excess energy consumption. This paper presents research that demonstrates and evaluates the performance of four optimal start methods, which utilize data-based modeling as a key element in facilitating adaptive control in response to time-varying inputs while requiring minimal sensor inputs. The evaluation found energy savings in two commercial buildings equipped with RTUs by periodically alternating four different optimal start models during the cooling and heating season. The resulting energy savings are positive for all models and range from 2 to 5 kWh/day/unit. The units on the east side of the building showed higher savings, while interior units showed greater variability in savings due to the differences in capacities and room sizes. Savings were considerably greater during the heating season compared to the cooling season. The performance of all four models on Mondays was poor; models suggested a shorter optimal start time, which resulted in relatively larger errors. Finally, the future work will look at using a different model for the days after weekends and holidays.

42 ENGINEERING↗