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At least 199 records · Page 11

Regulatory utility of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling for assessing food impact in bioequivalence studies: A workshop summary report

This workshop report summarizes the presentations and panel discussion related to the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling approaches for food effect assessment, collected from Session 2 of Day 2 of the workshop titled “Regulatory Utility of Mechanistic Modeling to Support Alternative Bioequivalence Approaches.” The US Food and Drug Administration in collaboration with the Center for Research on Complex Generics organized this workshop where this particular session titled “Oral PBPK for Evaluating the Impact of Food on BE” presented successful cases of PBPK modeling approaches for food effect assessment. Recently, PBPK modeling has started to gain popularity among academia, industries, and regulatory agencies for its potential utility during bioavailability (BA) and/or bioequivalence (BE) studies of new and generic drug products to assess the impact of food on BA/BE. Considering the promises of PBPK modeling in generic drug development, the aim of this workshop session was to facilitate knowledge sharing among academia, industries, and regulatory agencies to understand the knowledge gap and guide the path forward. This report collects and summarizes the information presented and discussed during this session to disseminate the information into a broader audience for further advancement in this area.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Extensions of a classical mechanics “piston-model” for understanding the impact of asymmetry on ICF implosions: The cases of mode 2, mode 2/1 coupling, time-dependent asymmetry, and the relationship to coast-time

As long suspected, low mode asymmetry in inertially confined fusion (ICF) implosions has been implicated as a performance limiting factor [Casey et al., “Evidence of three-dimensional asymmetries seeded by high-density carbon-ablator nonuniformity in experiments at the national ignition facility,” Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 025002 (2021)]. Recently a non-linear, but solvable, theory [Hurricane et al., “An analytic asymmetric-piston model for the impact of mode-1 shell asymmetry on ICF implosions,” Phys. Plasmas 27, 062704 (2020)] based upon the simple picture of a pair of asymmetric pistons has generated new insights and provided some practical formulas for estimating the degradation of an implosion due to mode-1 asymmetry and demonstrated a previously unrecognized connection between measured hot-spot drift velocity, nuclear down-scatter ratio asymmetry, and the concept of residual kinetic energy (RKE). Asymmetry of the implosion “shell,” as opposed to asymmetry of the hot-spot, was key to the classical mechanics model because the majority of the kinetic energy in an implosion is carried by the shell. Herein, the two-piston model is extended to a six-piston model in order to capture mode-2 asymmetry and coupling between mode-1 and mode-2. A key result of this new six-piston model is that the weighted harmonic mean of shell areal density is the fundamental quantity that determines the RKE and performance degradations for a three-dimensional implosion. Agreement is found between the scalings coming from the theory and ICF implosion data from the National Ignition Facility and to large ensembles of detailed simulations. The connection between the piston model's dependence upon the radius of peak velocity and coast-time is also highlighted in this paper. Finally, by extending the two-piston model to include time-dependent “swing,” it is shown in the Appendix that the shell asymmetry at the time of stagnation dominates the solution for RKE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with abrupt forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in an Earth system model. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO 2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO 2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model based on a 9-day lag had significantly fewer nodes than a graph based on monthly means. Furthermore, this demonstrates our method’s ability to perform dimension reduction while still uncovering source-to-impact pathways.

Changepoint detection↗

Ionization Yield in Silicon for eV-Scale Electron-Recoil Processes

The development of single charge resolving, macroscopic silicon detectors has opened a window into rare processes at the O(eV) scale. In order to reconstruct the energy of a given event, or model the charge signal obtained for a given amount of energy absorbed by the electrons in a detector, an accurate charge yield model is needed. In this paper we review existing measurements of charge yield in Silicon, focusing in particular on the region below 1 keV. We highlight a calibration gap between 12-50 eV (referred to as the "UV-gap") and employ a phenomenological model of impact ionization to explore the likely charge yield in this energy regime. Finally, we explore the impact of variations in this model on a test case, that of dark matter scattering off electrons, to illustrate the scientific impact of uncertainties in charge yield.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Simple and Sophisticated Models of Taylor's Cylinder Impact

We present a study based on the simplest possible models for Taylor’s cylinder impact problem, in addition to examination of using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to map cylinder profiles to strength calibrations. We find that the approximate treatments of Taylor and Hawkyard compare well with hydrodynamic simulations using an equivalent assumption of constant flow stress. The CNN models prove to be well suited to successfully infer parameterizations of the Preston-Tonks-Wallace model of plastic deformation based on the deformed profile of an impacted cylinder

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simple and sophisticated models of Taylor’s cylinder impact

We present a study based on the simplest possible models for Taylor’s cylinder impact problem, in addition to examina-tion of using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to map cylinder profiles to strength calibrations. We find that the approximate treatments of Taylor and Hawkyard compare well with hydrodynamic simulations using an equivalent assumption of constant flow stress. The CNN models prove to be well suited to successfully infer parameterizations of the Preston-Tonks-Wallace model of plastic deformation based on the deformed profile of an impacted cylinder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of a Representative Molten Chloride Fast Reactor Model to Assess the Impact of Nuclear Data

The SCALE code system was employed to conduct a preliminary investigation of nuclear data impacts for a fast spectrum molten chloride salt reactor. A computationally effective depletion model that is representative of the reactor system was successfully developed and used to conduct fuel depletion simulations. Development of this model draws from the SLICE method that was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to enable generation of fuel compositions for an advanced reactor core at equilibrium operation. Eigenvalue uncertainty calculations using the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library were performed for the reactor in the fresh fuel state and an irradiated fuel state. It was determined that the primary driver of eigenvalue uncertainty was the uncertainty in the 235U (n, 𝛾) cross section. Uncertainty calculation results from this study were compared to results available for a different fast system, a sodium-cooled fast reactor, to confirm similarities and identify differences with respect to nuclear data impacts between the two fast advanced reactor systems.

Hirji, Rakim [Georgia Institute of Technology]↗

Synthetic residential load models for smart city energy management simulations

The ability to control tens of thousands of residential electricity customers in a coordinated manner has the potential to enact system-wide electric load changes, such as reduce congestion and peak demand, among other benefits. To quantify the potential benefits of demand-side management and other power system simulation studies (e.g. home energy management, large-scale residential demand response), synthetic load datasets that accurately characterize the system load are required. This study designs a combined top-down and bottom-up approach for modelling individual residential customers and their individual electric assets, each possessing their own characteristics, using time-varying queueing models. The aggregation of all customer loads created by the queueing models represents a known city-sized load curve to be used in simulation studies. The three presented residential queueing load models use only publicly available data. An open-source Python tool to allow researchers to generate residential load data for their studies is also provided. The simulation results presented consider the ComEd region (utility company from Chicago, IL) and demonstrate the characteristics of the three proposed residential queueing load models, the impact of the choice of model parameters, and scalability performance of the Python tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improvements to CTF Closure Models for Modelling of Two-Phase Flow

This report documents the efforts to improve the CTF prediction of void fraction and two-phase pressure drop by improving two-phase closure models. Previous validation activities have revealed that CTF tends to overpredict void fraction and two-phase pressure drop. In response to this, two approaches were taken to improve CTF’s predictive capabilities. Based on findings that the interfacial drag and subcooled boiling models significantly impact void prediction, alternative closure models for these physical effects were found and implemented into the code. An extensive assessment was performed by using the existing and newly added two-phase experimental data, which showed that void prediction, wall temperature, and two-phase pressure-drop results are improved by using the newly implemented models. A second approach for improving CTF modeling accuracy involved the use of a Bayesian calibration process that uses CTF validation data to optimize selected modeling coefficients and closure model multipliers to achieve a more accurate prediction of experimental results. A similar assessment was performed with calibrated models that improved the void and pressure-drop prediction for test cases that were both included and not included in the calibration dataset. Results of this study will be used to change the models used in CTF to achieve more accurate BWR analyses moving forward. This study also identified opportunities for improving additional closure models and other opportunities to use calibration techniques to improve CTF.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Improved solar cell performance and reliability through advanced defect characterization and growth studies

When this project began, CIGS and ACIGS solar cells were still well below the Shockley-Queisser efficiency limit for their bandgaps. Literature review from showed that JSC and FF were ~90% of the ideal values depending on the growth, but that VOC was only around 75% of the ideal value, which provided a clear objective to improve CIGS VOC. In polycrystalline CIGS, semiconductor defects (traps) have been shown by many studies to have detrimental impacts on device performance. Thus, the goal of this project was to investigate the sources and impacts of defects in CIGS, model their impact on device performance to predict efficiency improvements, and develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce the overall trap concentrations of these traps.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Methodology for Simulating Supercritical CO2 Heat Transfer Experiments Using Machine Learning Models

To support the growth of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles in the energy industry, this study seeks to train a machine learning model to mirror experimental data to predict new heat transfer data. To do this experimental data was amassed, one preliminary set comprised of 16 test results, and an expanded version comprised of 38 test results. With the goal of predicting experimental apparatus temperatures and pressures, several iterations of models were tested investigating the impact of model hyper-parameters, data inclusion, and data pre-processing on model performance. A total of 15 variations cumulatively of Gaussian Process Regressors, Gradient Boosting Regressors, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were trained and validated on the preliminary set, and the best algorithm of each class was re-trained on the expanded set. These were compared based on test/train R^2 , test/train mean absolute error (MAE), and validation MAE, to identify the successfulness of these models. It was shown temperatures could be predicted within just a few degrees, showing the potential of this approach. Future research has been identified with approaches to improve pressure and temperature predictions going forward.

Grabowski, Owen↗

Model Advancements to Enable Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Streamflow Temperature

With support from the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed new tools that incorporate cutting-edge climate and hydrological science capabilities to assess the potential long-term impacts of future climate conditions on unregulated streamflow and water temperature within watershed-river-reservoir systems. The objectives of this project were achieved by enhancing key hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and transferring them to a high-performance computing environment to provide a high-spatiotemporal resolution, multi-scale modeling framework. The new modeling framework has the potential to quantify risks related climate change impacts on runoff, unregulated streamflow, and water temperature. Initial development and demonstration of the modeling framework was conducted under historical and future climate conditions in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest and the Connecticut River Basin in New England.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Floating solar panels on reservoirs impact phytoplankton populations: A modelling experiment

Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) deployments are increasing globally as the switch to renewable energy intensifies, representing a considerable water surface transformation. FPV installations can potentially impact aquatic ecosystem function, either positively or negatively. However, these impacts are poorly resolved given the challenges of collecting empirical data for field or modelling experiments. In particular, there is limited evidence on the response of phytoplankton to changes in water body thermal dynamics and light climate with FPV. Given the importance of understanding phytoplankton biomass and species composition for managing ecosystem services, we use an uncertainty estimation approach to simulate the effect of FPV coverage and array siting location on a UK reservoir. FPV coverage was modified in 10% increments from a baseline with 0% coverage to 100% coverage for three different FPV array siting locations based on reservoir circulation patterns. Results showed that FPV coverage significantly impacted thermal properties, resulting in highly variable impacts on phytoplankton biomass and species composition. The impacts on phytoplankton were often dependent on array siting location as well as surface coverage. Changes to phytoplankton species composition were offset by the decrease in phytoplankton biomass associated with increasing FPV coverage. We identified that similar phytoplankton biomass reductions could be achieved with less FPV coverage by deploying the FPV array on the water body's faster-flowing area than the central or slower flowing areas. The difference in response dependent on siting location could be used to tailor phytoplankton management in water bodies. Simulation of water body-FPV interactions efficiently using an uncertainty approach is an essential tool to rapidly develop understanding and ultimately inform FPV developers and water body managers looking to minimise negative impacts and maximise co-benefits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling ablator grain structure impacts in ICF implosions

High-density carbon is a leading ablator material for inertial confinement fusion (ICF). This and some other ablator materials have grain structure which is believed to introduce very small-scale (~nm) density inhomogeneity. In principle, such inhomogeneity can affect key ICF metrics like fuel compression and yield, by, for example, acting as a seed for instabilities and inducing mix between ablator and fuel. However, assessments of such effects are uncertain due to the difficulty of modeling this small-scale structure in ICF simulations, typically requiring reduced-resolution modeling that scales these features. We present a grain model and show both the impact of de-resolving grains and the complex mixing dynamics such structures can induce. We find that different methods for de-resolving grains can yield both different total deposition of kinetic energy perturbations and different fuel–ablator mixing. We then show a simple-to-implement approach for approximately conserving the deposition of perturbed kinetic energy and demonstrate that, for the present grain model and test cases, this approach yields a reasonably matched time history of mix width between less and more resolved grain models. The simulations here also demonstrate the complex interaction history between grain-induced mixing and instability around the fuel–ablator interface, showing, for example, that the grain-induced perturbations typically trigger instability of conduction-driven density gradients in the DT fuel, enhancing mix penetration early in the acceleration of the shell. Furthermore simulating both microscale and nanoscale grains, we find initial evidence for larger mixing in the microscale case of the present model, despite smaller deposited kinetic energy perturbation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Langmuir adsorption model to assess the impact of silane coupling on nano-dispersion of silica in SBR

Surface active agents are often used to improve dispersion of nanoparticles. Quantitative correlation between these surface-active molecules and nanoscale dispersion is absent from the literature partly because a quantitative measure of nanoscale dispersion does not exist. Recently, we have developed the Virial-van der Waals method to quantify dispersion in nanocomposites using virial coefficients. In this paper, the Langmuir adsorption model is used to quantify the influence of surface-active agents on nano-scale dispersion in terms of the effective second virial coefficient B 2 *. The impact of silane coupling agent on the nano-dispersion and silica aggregate structure in precipitated silica/SBR nanocomposites is demonstrated. It is shown that the higher viscosity SBR matrix led to a greater silica aggregate structural breakup, while lower viscosity matrix improved surface silanization. The isomeric content of the SBR, which impacts the dielectric behavior, impacted whether the system could be modeled through a mean-field or specific interactions. We earlier showed that larger aggregates improve dispersion, and this is reaffirmed in these results. After account is made for aggregate size, nano-scale dispersion improves with the addition of silane coupling agent. The behavior is well modeled using Langmuir monolayer adsorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EVI-Rental: A Scalable Model to Quantify the Impact of Rental Car Electrification

This fact sheet describes the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Rental Car (EVI-Rental) tool, a flexible and comprehensive simulation tool that addresses key questions about the charging demand, infrastructure needs, and business impacts of adding growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) to rental fleets. To validate the EVI-Rental model, the Athena research team conducted a case study at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) to understand the impact of state-of-charge requirements, different charger types and charging schedules, solar power generation, and behind-the-meter storage on a fully electrified rental car fleet.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗