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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of irradiated graphite property models under high temperatures

Graphite under high temperatures and irradiation is central to advanced reactors. We develop a Bayesian calibration framework for graphite property models that explicitly represents model-data mismatch via a Gaussian-process discrepancy. The approach propagates uncertainty from parameters, experimental noise, and model form, with a hierarchical variance structure to capture group and cross-group noise. Using two predictive models across five grades (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA, NBG-17, 2114) and four properties-irradiation-induced dimension change, creep, Young’s modulus change ratio, and coefficient of thermal expansion change ratio-we obtain average predictive-error reductions of 54%, 65%, 17%, and 17% when discrepancy is included. We illustrate engineering impact with a multiphysics model of a very-high-temperature reactor prismatic reflector brick, analyzing stresses under high fluence and temperature. Accounting for model discrepancy markedly improves predictive accuracy and provides a robust basis for reliable graphite component design in advanced reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control over emergence and alignment of transient blisters in thermo-responsive gels using hierarchically patterned substrates

Surfaces with tunable microscale textures are vital in a large variety of technological applications, including heat transfer, antifouling and adhesion. To facilitate such broad-scale use, there is a need to create surfaces that undergo reconfigurable changes in topology and thus, enable switchable functionality. To date, there is a relative dearth of methods for engineering surfaces that can be actuated to change topography over a range of length scales, and hence, form tunable hierarchically structured layers. Combining modeling and experiments, we design a geometrically patterned, thermo-responsive poly (N-isopropylacrylamide) gel film that undergoes controllable hierarchical changes in topology with changes in temperature. At the bottom, the film is covalently bound to a solid, curved substrate; at the top, the film encompasses longitudinal rectangular ridges that are oriented perpendicular to the underlying cylindrical curves. At temperatures below lower critical solution temperature (LCST), the swollen gel exhibits 3D variations in polymer density and thickness defined by the gel's top and bottom topography. As the temperature rises above LCST, the interplay between the upper ridges and lower curves in the gel drives non-uniform, directional solvent transport, the nucleation and propagation of a phase-separated higher-density skin layer, and the resulting pressure buildup within the film. These different, interacting kinetic processes lead to an instability, which produces transient microscopic blisters in the film. Through simulations, we show how tuning the width of the ridges modifies the propagation of a skin layer and creates localized pressure build-up points, which enables control over the emergence, distribution, and alignment of the microscopic blisters. Futhermore, we provide a simple argument to predict the size of such microscopic features. Experiments confirm our predictions and further highlight how our computational model enables the rational design of topographical transitions in these tunable films. The development of actuatable, hierarchically structured films provides new routes for achieving switchable functionality in actuators, drug release systems and adhesives.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Game theoretic modeling and optimization of competition and collaboration in dual channel electronic waste supply chains

The rapid growth of electronic waste (e-waste) presents critical challenges for sustainable resource recovery and environmental protection. This study develops a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model formulated as a hierarchical Stackelberg game, that integrates dynamic pricing and cost-sharing mechanisms to optimize both economic and environmental outcomes. The model explicitly captures strategic interactions between manufacturer-led and third-party recycling channels, accounting for consumer behavior, regulatory incentives, and market competition. Numerical simulations conducted (implemented over a four-iteration horizon using a commercial optimization solver) show that, relative to the baseline equilibrium, manufacturer profit increases from 11.6 thousand USD to 37.9 thousand USD (+226.8%), total recycled volume rises from 7,848 to 7,942 units (+1.2%), and collector profit nearly doubles under cost-sharing, enabling more equitable profit distribution. Furthermore, scenario-based simulations across Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income economies, and emerging Asian industrial countries reveal that infrastructure quality, policy intensity, and labor costs critically shape recycling efficiency and profit allocation. These findings demonstrate that subsidies alone are insufficient to ensure system efficiency. Instead, coordinated strategies that integrate internal incentive alignment with context-sensitive policy support are required. Overall, this study offers a robust framework for designing resilient, efficient, and regionally adaptable e-waste management systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast microflow kinetics and acid catalyst deactivation in glucose conversion to 5-hydroxymethylfurfural

5-Hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) is an important platform chemical because it can be upgraded to various drop-in and performance-advantaged products. The cascade reaction of HMF production from glucose over a Lewis acid (CrCl 3 ) and a Brønsted acid (HCl) catalyst in aqueous media is investigated in a microreactor at short residence times and high temperatures. We study the formation of various chromium species using UV-visible spectrophotometry and elucidate the Cr(III) speciation. The catalyst reactivity increases sharply at short residence times, and then drops at long times. This indicates that the catalyst treatment plays a vital role in getting optimal reactivity, and recording the catalyst history is necessary. We develop a kinetic model to describe the catalyst speciation as well as the Lewis and Brønsted acid-catalyzed reaction kinetics using a hierarchical approach. Here, the model is in good agreement with experiments. We demonstrate the benefits of tandem Lewis-external added Brønsted acid catalysis in processing time, productivity, and catalyst stability. We apply this model to optimize the HMF yield and obtain ~36% yield at 200 °C in 7 min and report the highest productivity of ~15% yield per min, demonstrating the opportunity of reaching high productivity at short residence times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Bayesian supervised domain adaptation for RNA sequencing data

Abstract Motivation When learning to subtype complex disease based on next-generation sequencing data, the amount of available data is often limited. Recent works have tried to leverage data from other domains to design better predictors in the target domain of interest with varying degrees of success. But they are either limited to the cases requiring the outcome label correspondence across domains or cannot leverage the label information at all. Moreover, the existing methods cannot usually benefit from other information available a priori such as gene interaction networks. Results In this article, we develop a generative optimal Bayesian supervised domain adaptation (OBSDA) model that can integrate RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data from different domains along with their labels for improving prediction accuracy in the target domain. Our model can be applied in cases where different domains share the same labels or have different ones. OBSDA is based on a hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial model with parameter factorization, for which the optimal predictor can be derived by marginalization of likelihood over the posterior of the parameters. We first provide an efficient Gibbs sampler for parameter inference in OBSDA. Then, we leverage the gene-gene network prior information and construct an informed and flexible variational family to infer the posterior distributions of model parameters. Comprehensive experiments on real-world RNA-Seq data demonstrate the superior performance of OBSDA, in terms of accuracy in identifying cancer subtypes by utilizing data from different domains. Moreover, we show that by taking advantage of the prior network information we can further improve the performance. Availability and implementation The source code for implementations of OBSDA and SI-OBSDA are available at the following link. https://github.com/SHBLK/BSDA. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical evaluation framework for assessing climate simulations relevant to the energy-water-land nexus (Final Report)

The overarching goal was to construct a hierarchy of new and well-tested metrics and analysis tools that support both fundamental and use-inspired research. Motivating this goal was a convergence of needs from climate scientists and stakeholders alike for a systematic, robust framework of model evaluation and diagnosis to provide scientific insights, inform model development, support best practices for the use of climate model outputs, and facilitate communication of climate information in the evolving landscapes of multi-model, multi-resolution, and large ensemble simulations that generate terabytes of data for any single climate run. Steps toward attaining these goals benefited from expertise and established capability of the project team, which included leadership of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), development of hierarchical model evaluation approaches, and successful research in the analysis and diagnosis of climate model skill, as well as the understanding and modeling of regional climate processes in North America. As part of the overarching goal, the project worked to disseminate a suite of methodologies, algorithms, and software components that the wider community can employ to advance climate science and applications. With rigorous demonstration, the evaluation framework and the mix of standard and high risk / high reward approaches helped form the basis for future development of a computationally enabled user-friendly system for community use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Renewable energy integration and system operation challenge: control and optimization of millions of devices

The electric power infrastructure, originally designed and built on large-scale power plants, is evolving into a more resilient power generation and delivery system in which millions of smaller units of distributed energy generation resources units will be installed in sub-transmission and distribution networks. In order to control, manage and optimize the future grid, a hierarchical design is presented in this chapter which enables the distributed control on grid edge while inheriting the existing centralized control structure. This layered design of large-scale power system operation and control uses the following principle: reactive power control is treated as a primary control for voltage stability, and the real power control is primarily a grid-level control but can also be a supplementary control for voltage support in the case of insufficient reactive power control capacity. For the purpose of active control and operation at the distribution level, a recursive power network model is derived from nodal injection and branch power flow models. Based on the model, the proposed algorithms of hierarchical control, grid-edge inference and dynamic hosting allowance are developed and presented for multi-level controlled operation. And, a co-simulation architecture of integrated T&D system is presented to validate and demonstrate the feasibility and scalability of proposed algorithms.

Xu, Ying↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational wave imprints of left-right symmetric model with minimal Higgs sector

We study the gravitational wave imprints of left-right symmetric model equipped with universal seesaw mechanism allowing for the natural generation of hierarchical masses of the Standard Model fermions. The scalar sector of this model is the minimal one, consisting of only two Higgs doublets. Following the construction of the full thermal potential for this model, we perform a scan of the entire parameter space and identify the region in which the cosmic phase transition associated with the left-right symmetry breaking gives gravitational wave signals detectable by a variety of planned space-based interferometers. Then we also discuss the relevant collider implications of this beyond the Standard Model scenario.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bridging the Flux Gap: Sap Flow Measurements Reveal Species-Specific Patterns of Water Use in a Tallgrass Prairie

Woody encroachment, the process through which woody plants (trees and shrubs) replace grasses and wildflowers in grassland ecosystems, is occurring globally. Because woody plants use water differently (e.g., rates, soil depths of uptake, and time periods of activity) than grasses, woody encroachment could potentially change the water cycle in grasslands. In order to understand how grassland water use might change with ongoing woody encroachment, we measured continuous rates of water loss in common plant species in a North American grassland. Furthermore, we found that the main encroaching shrub in this grassland used more water over time than grasses or wildflowers. Additionally, this shrub and grasses used a large amount of water at night compared to wildflowers. Finally, we found that different weather conditions had different impacts on how water was used by woody plants, grasses, and wildflowers. We suggest that woody encroachment might reduce the amount of water stored in grasslands, which could alter the composition of grassland plants in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗
DOE OSTI2022

Finding predictive models for singlet fission by machine learning

Singlet fission (SF), the conversion of one singlet exciton into two triplet excitons, could significantly enhance solar cell efficiency. Molecular crystals that undergo SF are scarce. Computational exploration may accelerate the discovery of SF materials. However, many-body perturbation theory (MBPT) calculations of the excitonic properties of molecular crystals are impractical for large-scale materials screening. We use the sure-independence-screening-and-sparsifying-operator (SISSO) machine-learning algorithm to generate computationally efficient models that can predict the MBPT thermodynamic driving force for SF for a dataset of 101 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH101). SISSO generates models by iteratively combining physical primary features. The best models are selected by linear regression with cross-validation. The SISSO models successfully predict the SF driving force with errors below 0.2 eV. Based on the cost, accuracy, and classification performance of SISSO models, we propose a hierarchical materials screening workflow. Three potential SF candidates are found in the PAH101 set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-dilute helium-related defect interactions in the near-surface region of plasma-exposed tungsten

We report a systematic energetic analysis of helium-related defect interactions that mediate helium (He) segregation on surfaces of plasma-exposed tungsten at different levels of He ion implantation. We focus on high He fluences that increase the He content in the plasma-exposed material well beyond the dilute limit of He concentration and employ atomic configurations generated by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of He-implanted tungsten. We perform systematic molecular statics computations of cluster– defect interaction energetics in the highly defect-rich near-surface region of plasma-exposed tungsten for small mobile helium clusters as a function of the cluster distance from the surface. In this region, mobile clusters are also subjected to the stress fields generated by defects such as helium bubbles and other clusters, which govern cluster–defect interactions in addition to the cluster–surface interaction. Based on systematic investigation of individual cluster–defect interactions, we develop a mathematical framework to describe the interaction energy landscapes consisting of elastic interaction potential perturbations to finite-width square-well potentials, where the potential well accounts for cluster trapping by the defect at close range and subsequent coalescence and the perturbation potential is parameterized according to elastic inclusion theory. Superposition of all the relevant interaction potentials provides a comprehensive description of the interaction energy landscape that would be experienced by a small mobile cluster along its migration path toward the plasma-exposed surface at high He fluence. Such descriptions are particularly important for developing atomistically-informed, hierarchical multi-scale models of helium cluster dynamics in plasma-facing materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗