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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Affordable and Accessible Solar for All: Barriers, Solutions, and On-Site Adoption Potential

Solar energy technologies can be used as part of a suite of tools to reduce the energy burden of low-income customers, but to date, low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers have not adopted solar at the same rate as other income groups. This paper summarizes the barriers of LMI solar adoption related to finance and funding, community engagement, site suitability, policy and regulatory, and resilience and recovery and discusses existing and potential future solutions to address these barriers. In addition, we model future LMI on-site solar adoption, using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) dGen model. We model future scenarios assuming no changes in the current LMI solar policy and program environment, and we add two incentives to low-income households for adopting solar: a $\$$3,000 incentive and a full incentive (i.e., the full cost of a PV system). While we model a financial incentive, this dollar reduction in cost could also come from other efforts, for example, reductions in solar soft costs. We find that by 2050, 48-49% of LMI households adopt solar, resulting in $\$$69- $\$$101 billion in first year utility bill savings to these consumers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The prospective impacts of 2019 state energy policies on the U.S. electricity system

Over the past several years state energy policies have been evolving rapidly, and are more frequently including higher targets, including 100% clean energy targets. This study assesses the aggregate impacts of state clean energy standards and emissions policies on national electricity generation, power sector carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and electricity prices and system costs. To do so, we apply the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a detailed electric sector capacity expansion model, to evaluate scenarios with and without state policies and using a range of renewable energy technology cost projections. Across the scenarios analyzed, we find that the state policies drive 1.9%–10.7% of total nationwide clean energy and reduce cumulative power sector CO 2 emissions by 2.6%–5.4% over the 2020–2050 study period. This incremental generation is predominantly, but not exclusively, from renewable energy technologies. In most cases, the state policies result in increases to electricity prices and electricity system costs, and policy costs are sensitive to the future cost of clean energy technologies. Across all scenarios, the levelized cost of incremental policy-driven clean energy generation is estimated to be $17–38/MWh and the average cost of CO 2 abatement from the state-level policies is estimated to be $29–74/metric ton.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

Biomethane↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact Analysis of Future Electric Vehicles Using Model of Real Distribution Feeders

Globally, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) continues to increase. This on-going trend poses challenges for power distribution systems. The inclusion of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) should be compatible with a changing energy system, whose structure is becoming increasingly distributed. The impact of future EVs should be analyzed and considered in the system planning and upgrades. In this study, impact analysis of future EVs is conducted for a utility company of U.S. West Coast. Real data of distribution feeders is converted into the GridLAB-D model for running power flow analysis. An estimation of the additional loading of EVs in 2050 is provided by the utility company. Simple mitigation methods are tested to improve voltage profiles and complete this case study.

Xie, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Report on Fuel Cycle Facility Requirements for Deployment of Demonstration Reactors and Potential Evolutionary Fuel Cycle Scenarios

A series of fuel cycle scenarios studies were performed to inform on fuel cycle capacities and facilities needed for large-scale deployment of the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) reactors and potential future evolutionary fuel cycle scenarios. The reactor deployment and evolutionary fuel cycle scenarios from the present to 2100 were developed based on the following assumptions: 1) achievement of a net-zero emissions economy in the United States by 2050, which requires a nuclear energy generation capacity of ~250 GWe by 2050, 2) the U.S. economic growth of 1% per year from 2051 to 2100, which results in ~340 GWe of nuclear energy capacity in 2100, and 3) commercial-scale recycling and high burnup fuel technologies are available after 2050. Thus, evolutionary fuel cycles with those advanced nuclear technologies start after 2050. A single once-through fuel cycle scenario was assumed from the present to 2050 to achieve a net-zero emissions economy in the United States, and the following four evolutionary fuel cycle scenarios from 2051 to 2100 were considered, 1) Once through fuel cycle with ARDP reactors (Natrium and Xe-100), 2) Once-through fuel cycle with Breed-and-Burn (B&B) fast reactors, 3) Recycling fuel cycle of used metallic fuel in fast reactors, and 4) Recycle fuel cycle of both used uranium oxide and metallic fuels in fast reactors. The projected front-end and back-end fuel cycle capacity demands are compared with the current domestic and global (if needed) fuel cycle capacities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Zero-Emissions Roadmap for Oakland County

This document outlines a strategic pathway for Oakland County, Michigan to achieve zero emissions by 2050 under the Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) Program. The report encompasses analyses and high-level modeling to guide Oakland County in its emission reduction goals. Key methods include establishing an emissions inventory baseline with ongoing evaluation of future projects’ emissions impacts. Core elements include decommissioning old infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency, deploying hybrid and ground-source heat pumps, and transitioning to electric fleets. It is proposed to structure the planning process into 5-year strategic plans to make the decarbonization process manageable. The document also emphasizes the need for reassessment of goals and periodic updates to remain adaptive to technological advancements and funding considerations. A matrixed approach for evaluating projects by cost and emissions savings is suggested to optimize decision-making given finite resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Sustainable Aviation With Efficient Airspace Operations

In November 2021, the Federal Aviation Administration published the United States Aviation Climate Action Plan to accelerate innovation across the U.S. aviation ecosystem. In response, NASA has established the Sustainable Flight National Partnership to engage with industry, academia, and other agencies to accomplish net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. As part of the SFNP Mission, NASA is conducting a series of real world operational demonstrations in the current National Airspace System with a focus on delivering real world sustainability benefits. This paper presents the current work and future plan for the SFNP Ops Demo Series and describes the cloud based infrastructure used for virtual deployment of decision support tools to flight operators and Air Traffic Controllers to help improve operational efficiency of the National Airspace System. Validation results are shared along with the key sustainability benefits such as jet fuel savings and reduction in CO2 emissions. The operational efficiency metrics such as delay savings are also reported.

Sustainable Flight National Partnership↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance and cost analysis of liquid fuel production from H 2 and CO 2 based on the Fischer-Tropsch process

Electro-fuels can be produced from concentrated sources of carbon dioxide and hydrogen using electricity generated from renewable sources; this process enables energy storage at high volumetric energy density. Among the electro-fuels options, FT (Fischer-Tropsch) fuel is attractive for heavy-duty trucks and non-road transportation applications. This study conducts a techno-economic analysis of FT liquid fuel production from H 2 and CO 2 using a detailed performance analysis. Minimum fuel selling price is estimated for a broad range of H 2 and CO 2 prices and for a range of potential CO 2 credits. The analysis indicates that H 2 price has the largest impact on the minimum selling price of FT fuel. FT fuel production with a CO 2 price of $17.3/metric ton requires an H 2 price of $0.8/kg to be cost-competitive with the pre-tax petroleum diesel price of $3.1/gal in 2050 (before the application of any CO 2 credits). When the H 2 price is $2.0/kg from central water electrolysis (2020 target), the minimum selling price of the FT fuel is $5.4–5.9/gal. A sensitivity analysis shows that future system optimization of FT fuel production could focus on improving the H 2 and CO 2 recycle contributions and FT fuel conversion ratio. The analysis results can be combined with various upstream systems for H 2 and CO 2 production.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Key Performance Projections based on Historical Trends and Chemistries

Recent improvements in state-of-the-art (SOA) batteries driven by the automotive sector have led to many electrified aircraft concepts choosing batteries as the preferred energy-storage method. Current SOA batteries are at the point of enabling certain hybrid and all-electric aircraft, particularly small, short range, lower speed aircraft. Higher performance batteries improve aircraft range and can enable larger, higher speed aircraft. In this work, we develop specific energy projections for future electrified aircraft. The projections are developed based on examining historical commercial SOA trends as well as practical limitations of future chemistries. Accurate projections of future specific energy values are important for estimating the timeline for commercial introduction of electrified aircraft. This work estimates nominal cell level specific energies for rechargeable batteries of 489 Wh/kg by 2030, 638 Wh/kg by 2040, and 764 Wh/kg by 2050. More conservative as well as more aggressive estimates are also provided.

Blake Tiede↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology, technology, technology: An integrated assessment of deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian oil sands

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Canada has an ambitious climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The country also holds the world's third largest oil reserves in the Alberta oil sands. Given increasing emissions from the oil sands sector, achieving Canada's net-zero target requires significant oil sands decarbonization. If, while phasing out fossil fuels, there is still a demand for Canadian oil sands, then the decarbonization of the resource production process becomes crucial. In this study, we use an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a detailed unconventional oil sector for Canada, including mining and in situ resources. We ask, what is the future of the oil sands sector in deeply decarbonized global and Canadian economies? We address this question under four mitigation scenarios with varying global net-zero GHG emissions constraints, three additional representative lower carbon extraction technologies available for the oil sands sector, as well as global direct air capture (DAC) deployment. We find that lower carbon technology deployment allows a 20%–44% increase in oil sands production by 2050 for scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2100 or 2075. DAC helps maintain oil sands production in the most ambitious global decarbonization scenario (net-zero GHG by 2050), without which low international oil demand makes Canadian oil sands production uncompetitive. Canadian oil sands production thus depends highly on the availability of lower carbon extraction technologies and international oil demand, which to a certain extent relies on the availability and global deployment of negative emissions technologies.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore wind and wave energy can reduce total installed capacity required in zero-emissions grids

Abstract As the world races to decarbonize power systems to mitigate climate change, the body of research analyzing paths to zero emissions electricity grids has substantially grown. Although studies typically include commercially available technologies, few of them consider offshore wind and wave energy as contenders in future zero-emissions grids. Here, we model with high geographic resolution both offshore wind and wave energy as independent technologies with the possibility of collocation in a power system capacity expansion model of the Western Interconnection with zero emissions by 2050. In this work, we identify cost targets for offshore wind and wave energy to become cost effective, calculate a 17% reduction in total installed capacity by 2050 when offshore wind and wave energy are fully deployed, and show how curtailment, generation, and transmission change as offshore wind and wave energy deployment increase.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of bioenergy feedstock carbon farming on sustainable aviation fuel viability in the United States

Biomass-derived sustainable aviation fuel holds significant potential for decarbonizing the aviation sector. Its long-term viability depends on crop choice, longevity of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, and the biomass-to-biojet fuel conversion efficiency. We explored the impact of fuel price and SOC value on viable biojet fuel production scale by integrating an agroecosystem model with a field-to-biojet fuel production process model for 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), a representative high-performance biojet fuel molecule, from Miscanthus, sorghum, and switchgrass. Assigning monetary value to SOC sequestration results in substantially different outcomes than an increased fuel selling price. If SOC accumulation is valued at $185/ton CO 2 , planting Miscanthus for conversion to DMCO would be economically cost-competitive across 66% of croplands across the continental United States (US) by 2050 if conventional jet fuel remains at $0.74/L (in 2020 US dollars). Cutting the SOC sequestration value in half reduces the viable area to 54% of cropland, and eliminating any payment for SOC shrinks the viable area to 16%. If future biojet fuel prices increase to $1.24/L-Jet A-equivalent, 48 to 58% of the total cultivated land in the United States could support a more diverse set of feedstocks including Miscanthus, sorghum, or switchgrass. Among these options, only 8–14% of the area would be suitable exclusively for Miscanthus cultivation. These findings highlight the intersection of natural solutions for carbon removal and the use of deep-rooted feedstocks for biofuels and biomanufacturing. The results underscore the need to establish clear and consistent values for SOC sequestration to enable the future bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems

Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗