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NASA NTRS2000

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (Tg) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub h)) over wet regions and Tg over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200 /cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub j)) and Tg. Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub t) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in Tg, q(sub h) and q(sub t). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing (Delta)Tg and broad layer (Delta)q(sub l) from 500 hPa to surface and (Delta)q(sub h) from 200 to 500 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations, typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for (Delta)T to about 20% for (Delta)q(sub t). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 mm). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the Tg, have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSTM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (T(sub g)) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub l)) over wet regions and (T(sub g)) over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200/cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub t)) and T(sub g). Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub l) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in T(sub g), q(sub h) and q(sub l). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing Delta(T(sub g)) and broad layer Delta(q(sub l) from .500 hPa to surface and Delta(q(sub h)) from 200 to .300 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations. typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for Delta(T(sub g)) to about 20% for Delta(q(sub l)). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 min). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the T(sub g). have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Multibody dynamics: Modeling component flexibility with fixed, free, loaded, constraint, and residual modes

The assumed-modes method in multibody dynamics allows the elastic deformation of each component in the system to be approximated by a sum of products of spatial and temporal functions commonly known as modes and modal coordinates respectively. The choice of component modes used to model articulating and non-articulating flexible multibody systems is examined. Attention is directed toward three classical Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) methods whereby component normal modes are generated by treating the component interface (I/F) as either fixed, free, or loaded with mass and stiffness contributions from the remaining components. The fixed and free I/F normal modes are augmented by static shape functions termed constraint and residual modes respectively. A mode selection procedure is outlined whereby component modes are selected from the Craig-Bampton (fixed I/F plus constraint), MacNeal-Rubin (free I/F plus residual), or Benfield-Hruda (loaded I/F) mode sets in accordance with a modal ordering scheme derived from balance realization theory. The success of the approach is judged by comparing the actuator-to-sensor frequency response of the reduced order system with that of the full order system over the frequency range of interest. A finite element model of the Galileo spacecraft serves as an example in demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed mode selection method.

Spanos, John T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Coronal heating by the resonant absorption of Alfven waves: The effect of viscous stress tensor

The time-dependent linearized magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations for a fully compressible, low-beta, viscoresistive plasma are solved numerically using an implicit integration scheme. The full viscosity stress tensor (Braginskii 1965) is included with the five parameters eta(sub i) i = 0 to 4. In agreement with previous studies, the numerical simulations demonstrate that the dissipation on inhomogeneities in the background Alfven speed occurs in a narrow resonant layer. For an active region in the solar corona the values of eta(sub i) are eta(sub o) = 0.65 g/cm/s, eta(sub 1) = 3.7 x 10(exp -12) g/cm/s, eta(sub 2) = 4 eta(sub 1), eta(sub 3) = 1.4 x 10(exp -6) g/cm/s, eta(sub 4) = 2 eta(sub 3), with n = 10(exp 10)/cu cm, T = 2 x 10(exp 6) K, and B = 100 G. When the Lundquist number S = 10(exp 4) and R(sub 1) much greater than S (where R(sub 1) is the dimensionless shear viscous number) the width of the resistive dissipation layer d(sub r) is 0.22a (where a is the density gradient length scale) and d(sub r) approximately S(exp -1/3). When S much greater than R(sub 1) the shear viscous dissipation layer width d(sub r) scales as R(sub 1)(exp -1/3). The shear viscous and the resistive dissipation occurs in an overlapping narrow region, and the total heating rate is independent of the value of the dissipation parameters in agreement with previous studies. Consequently, the maximum values of the perpendicular velocity and perpendicular magnetic field scale as R(sub 1)(exp -1/3). It is evident from the simulations that for solar parameters the heating due to the compressive viscosity (R(sub 0) = 560) is negligible compared to the resistive and the shear viscous (R(sub 1)) dissipation and it occurs in a broad layer of order a in width. In the solar corona with S approximately equals 10(exp 4) and R(sub 1) approximately equals 10(exp 14) (as calculated from the Braginskii expressions), the shear viscous resonant heating is of comparable magnitude to the resistive resonant heating.

Ofman, L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

NASA SETI microwave observing project: Sky Survey element

The SETI Sky Survey Observing Program is one of two complimentary strategies that NASA plans to use in its microwave Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). The primary objective of the sky survey is to search the entire sky over the frequency range of 1.0 to 10.0 GHz for evidence of narrow band signals of extraterrestrial intelligent origin. Frequency resolutions of 30 Hz or narrower will be used across the entire band. Spectrum analyzers with upwards of ten million channels are required to keep the survey time approximately 6 years. Data rates in excess of 10 megabits per second will be generated in the data taking process. Sophisticated data processing techniques will be required to determine the ever changing receiver baselines, and to detect and archive potential SETI signals. Existing radio telescopes, including several of NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) 34 meter antennas located at Goldstone, CA and Tidbinbilla, Australia will be used for the observations. The JPL has the primary responsibility to develop and carry out the sky survey. In order to lay the foundation for the full scale SETI Sky Survey, a prototype system is being developed at the JPL. The system will be installed at the new 34-m high efficiency antenna at the Deep Space Station (DSS) 13 research and development station, Goldstone, CA, where it will be used to initiate the observational phase of the NASA SETI Sky Survey. It is anticipated that the early observations will be useful to test signal detection algorithms, scan strategies, and radio frequency interference rejection schemes. The SETI specific elements of the prototype system are: (1) the Wide Band Spectrum Analyzer (WBSA); a 2-million channel fast Fourier transformation (FFT) spectrum analyzer which covers an instantaneous bandpass of 40 MHz; (2) the signal detection processor; and (3) the SETI Sky Survey Manager, a network-based C-language environment that provides observatory control, performs data acquisition and analysis algorithms. A high level description of the prototype hardware and software systems will be given and the current status of the system development will be reported.

Klein, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Linear Estimation of Particle Bulk Parameters from Multi-Wavelength Lidar Measurements

An algorithm for linear estimation of aerosol bulk properties such as particle volume, effective radius and complex refractive index from multiwavelength lidar measurements is presented. The approach uses the fact that the total aerosol concentration can well be approximated as a linear combination of aerosol characteristics measured by multiwavelength lidar. Therefore, the aerosol concentration can be estimated from lidar measurements without the need to derive the size distribution, which entails more sophisticated procedures. The definition of the coefficients required for the linear estimates is based on an expansion of the particle size distribution in terms of the measurement kernels. Once the coefficients are established, the approach permits fast retrieval of aerosol bulk properties when compared with the full regularization technique. In addition, the straightforward estimation of bulk properties stabilizes the inversion making it more resistant to noise in the optical data. Numerical tests demonstrate that for data sets containing three aerosol backscattering and two extinction coefficients (so called 3 + 2 ) the uncertainties in the retrieval of particle volume and surface area are below 45% when input data random uncertainties are below 20 %. Moreover, using linear estimates allows reliable retrievals even when the number of input data is reduced. To evaluate the approach, the results obtained using this technique are compared with those based on the previously developed full inversion scheme that relies on the regularization procedure. Both techniques were applied to the data measured by multiwavelength lidar at NASA/GSFC. The results obtained with both methods using the same observations are in good agreement. At the same time, the high speed of the retrieval using linear estimates makes the method preferable for generating aerosol information from extended lidar observations. To demonstrate the efficiency of the method, an extended time series of observations acquired in Turkey in May 2010 was processed using the linear estimates technique permitting, for what we believe to be the first time, temporal-height distributions of particle parameters.

linear estimation↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Improved Energy Deposition Model in MPACT and Explicit Heat Generation Coupling with CTF

The default energy deposition model in the CASL neutronics code MPACT assumes all fission energy is deposited locally in fuel rods. Furthermore, equilibrium delayed energy release is assumed for both steady-state and transient calculations. These approximations limit the accurate representation of the heat generation distribution in space and its variations over time, which are essential for power distribution and thermal-hydraulic coupling calculations. In this paper, an improved energy deposition model is presented in both the spatial and time domains. Spatially, the energy deposition through fission, neutron capture, and slowing-down reactions are explicitly modeled to account for the heat generation from all regions of a reactor core, and a gamma smearing scheme is developed that utilizes the gamma sources from neutron fission and capture. In the time domain, the delayed energy release is modeled by solving an additional equation of delayed heat emitters, similar to the equation of delayed neutron precursors.To allow the explicit heat generation coupling, the interfaces between MPACT and CTF were updated to transfer separate heat sources for different material regions (fuel, clad, moderator and guide tube). The results show that the distributions of the energy deposition between MPACT and MCNP agree very well for various 2-D assembly and quarter-core problems without TH feedback. The MPACT/CTF coupled calculation for the hot full power quarter-core case exhibited a reduced peak pin power by 2.3% and a reduced peak fuel centerline temperature by 17 K when using the explicit energy deposition and heat transfer. The new model also shows a maximum 100 pcm keff effect on assembly depletion problems and an increased overall energy release by 7% in a PWR reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) problem.

Liu, Yuxuan↗

NASA NTRS1987

Euler solver for three-dimensional supersonic flows with subsonic pockets

A new finite-difference scheme has been developed to solve efficiently the unsteady Euler equations for three-dimensional inviscid supersonic flows with subsonic pockets. The technique utilizes planar Gauss-Seidel relaxation in the marching direction and approximate factorization n the crossflow plane. An 'infinitely large' time step is used in parts of the flowfield where the component of velocity in the marching direction is supersonic - here the Gauss-Seidel sweeps are restricted to the forward direction only, and the procedure reduces to simple space-marching; a finite time step is used in parts of the flowfield where the marching component of velocity is subsonic - here, backward and forward Gauss-Seidel sweeps are employed to allow for upstream and downstream propagation of signals, and a time-asymptotic steady state is obtained. The discretization formulas are based on finite-volume implementation of high accuracy (up to third-order) total variation diminishing formulations. Numerical solutions are obtained for an analytically defined forebody, a realistic fighter configuration, and the Space Shuttle. The results are in very good agreement with available experimental data and numerical solutions of the full-potential equation.

Chakravarthy, Sukumar R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

SQMBox: Interfacing a semiempirical integral library to modular ab initio electronic structure enables new semiempirical methods

Ab initio and semiempirical electronic structure methods are usually implemented in separate software packages or use entirely different code paths. As a result, it can be time-consuming to transfer an established ab initio electronic structure scheme to a semiempirical Hamiltonian. Here we present an approach to unify ab initio and semiempirical electronic structure code paths based on a separation of the wavefunction ansatz and the needed matrix representations of operators. With this separation, the Hamiltonian can refer to either an ab initio or semiempirical treatment of the resulting integrals. We built a semiempirical integral library and interfaced it to the GPU-accelerated electronic structure code TeraChem. Equivalency between ab initio and semiempirical tight-binding Hamiltonian terms is assigned according to their dependence on the one-electron density matrix. The new library provides semiempirical equivalents of the Hamiltonian matrix and gradient intermediates, corresponding to those provided by the ab initio integral library. This enables the straightforward combination of semiempirical Hamiltonians with the full pre-existing ground and excited state functionality of the ab initio electronic structure code. We demonstrate the capability of this approach by combining the extended tight-binding method GFN1-xTB with both spin-restricted ensemble-referenced Kohn–Sham and complete active space methods. We also present a highly efficient GPU implementation of the semiempirical Mulliken-approximated Fock exchange. The additional computational cost for this term becomes negligible even on consumer-grade GPUs, enabling Mulliken-approximated exchange in tight-binding methods for essentially no additional cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Node-Centered and Cell-Centered Unstructured Finite-Volume Discretizations: Inviscid Fluxes

Cell-centered and node-centered approaches have been compared for unstructured finite-volume discretization of inviscid fluxes. The grids range from regular grids to irregular grids, including mixed-element grids and grids with random perturbations of nodes. Accuracy, complexity, and convergence rates of defect-correction iterations are studied for eight nominally second-order accurate schemes: two node-centered schemes with weighted and unweighted least-squares (LSQ) methods for gradient reconstruction and six cell-centered schemes two node-averaging with and without clipping and four schemes that employ different stencils for LSQ gradient reconstruction. The cell-centered nearest-neighbor (CC-NN) scheme has the lowest complexity; a version of the scheme that involves smart augmentation of the LSQ stencil (CC-SA) has only marginal complexity increase. All other schemes have larger complexity; complexity of node-centered (NC) schemes are somewhat lower than complexity of cell-centered node-averaging (CC-NA) and full-augmentation (CC-FA) schemes. On highly anisotropic grids typical of those encountered in grid adaptation, discretization errors of five of the six cell-centered schemes converge with second order on all tested grids; the CC-NA scheme with clipping degrades solution accuracy to first order. The NC schemes converge with second order on regular and/or triangular grids and with first order on perturbed quadrilaterals and mixed-element grids. All schemes may produce large relative errors in gradient reconstruction on grids with perturbed nodes. Defect-correction iterations for schemes employing weighted least-square gradient reconstruction diverge on perturbed stretched grids. Overall, the CC-NN and CC-SA schemes offer the best options of the lowest complexity and secondorder discretization errors. On anisotropic grids over a curved body typical of turbulent flow simulations, the discretization errors converge with second order and are small for the CC-NN, CC-SA, and CC-FA schemes on all grids and for NC schemes on triangular grids; the discretization errors of the CC-NA scheme without clipping do not converge on irregular grids. Accurate gradient reconstruction can be achieved by introducing a local approximate mapping; without approximate mapping, only the NC scheme with weighted LSQ method provides accurate gradients. Defect correction iterations for the CC-NA scheme without clipping diverge; for the NC scheme with weighted LSQ method, the iterations either diverge or converge very slowly. The best option in curved geometries is the CC-SA scheme that offers low complexity, second-order discretization errors, and fast convergence.

Diskin, Boris↗

DOE OSTI2025

Asymptotic-preserving dynamical low-rank method for the stiff nonlinear Boltzmann equation

In kinetic theory, numerically solving the full Boltzmann equation is extremely expensive. This is because the Boltzmann collision operator involves a high-dimensional, nonlinear integral that must be evaluated at each spatial grid point and every time step. The challenge becomes even more pronounced in the fluid (strong collisionality) regime, where the collision operator exhibits strong stiffness, causing explicit time integrators to impose severe stability restrictions. In this paper, we propose addressing this problem through a dynamical low-rank (DLR) approximation. The resulting algorithm requires evaluating the Boltzmann collision operator only r 2 times, where r, the rank of the approximation, is much smaller than the number of spatial grid points. We propose a novel DLR integrator, called the XL integrator, which reduces the number of steps compared to the available alternatives (such as the projector splitting or basis update & Galerkin (BUG) integrator). For a class of problems including the Boltzmann collision operator which enjoys a separation property between physical and velocity space, we further propose a specialized version of the XL integrator, called the sXL integrator. This version requires solving only one differential equation to update the low-rank factors. Furthermore, the proposed low-rank schemes are asymptotic-preserving, meaning they can capture the asymptotic fluid limit in the case of strong collisionality. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methods across a wide range of regimes, from non-stiff (kinetic) to stiff (fluid).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A static quantum embedding scheme based on coupled cluster theory

Here, we develop a static quantum embedding scheme that utilizes different levels of approximations to coupled cluster (CC) theory for an active fragment region and its environment. To reduce the computational cost, we solve the local fragment problem using a high-level CC method and address the environment problem with a lower-level Møller–Plesset (MP) perturbative method. This embedding approach inherits many conceptual developments from the hybrid second-order Møller–Plesset (MP2) and CC works by Nooijen [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 10815 (1999)] and Bochevarov and Sherrill [J. Chem. Phys. 122, 234110 (2005)]. We go beyond those works here by primarily targeting a specific localized fragment of a molecule and also introducing an alternative mechanism to relax the environment within this framework. We will call this approach MP-CC. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MP-CC on several potential energy curves and a set of thermochemical reaction energies, using CC with singles and doubles as the fragment solver, and MP2-like treatments of the environment. The results are substantially improved by the inclusion of orbital relaxation in the environment. Using localized bonds as the active fragment, we also report results for N=N bond breaking in azomethane and for the central C–C bond torsion in butadiene. We find that when the fragment Hilbert space size remains fixed (e.g., when determined by an intrinsic atomic orbital approach), the method achieves comparable accuracy with both a small and a large basis set. Additionally, our results indicate that increasing the fragment Hilbert space size systematically enhances the accuracy of observables, approaching the precision of the full CC solver.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Twisted bilayer graphene. I. Matrix elements, approximations, perturbation theory, and a k · p two-band model

We investigate the twisted bilayer graphene (TBG) model of Bistritzer and MacDonald (BM) [Bistritzer and MacDonald, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108, 12233 (2011)] to obtain an analytic understanding of its energetics and wave functions needed for many-body calculations. We provide an approximation scheme for the wave functions of the BM model, which first elucidates why the BM K M -point centered original calculation containing only four plane waves provides a good analytical value for the first magic angle (θ M ≈ 1°). The approximation scheme also elucidates why most of the many-body matrix elements in the Coulomb Hamiltonian projected to the active bands can be neglected. By applying our approximation scheme at the first magic angle to a Γ M -point centered model of six plane waves, we analytically understand the reason for the small Γ M -point gap between the active and passive bands in the isotropic limit w 0 = w 1 . Furthermore, we analytically calculate the group velocities of the passive bands in the isotropic limit, and show that they are almost doubly degenerate, even away from the Γ M point, where no symmetry forces them to be. Furthermore, moving away from the Γ M and K M points, we provide an explicit analytical perturbative understanding as to why the TBG bands are flat at the first magic angle, despite the first magic angle is defined by only requiring a vanishing K M -point Dirac velocity. We derive analytically a connected “magic manifold” w 1 = $2\sqrt{1 + w^{2}_{0}}$ $-\sqrt{2 + 3w^2_0}$, on which the bands remain extremely flat as w 0 is tuned between the isotropic (w 0 = w 1 ) and chiral (w 0 = 0) limits. We analytically show why going away from the isotropic limit by making w 0 less (but not larger) than w 1 increases the Γ M -point gap between the active and the passive bands. Finally, by perturbation theory, we provide an analytic Γ M point k ∙ p two-band model that reproduces the TBG band structure and eigenstates within a certain w 0 , w 1 parameter range. Further refinement of this model are discussed, which suggest a possible faithful representation of the TBG bands by a two-band Γ M point k ∙ p model in the full w 0 , w 1 parameter range.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2016

Stability of the Early Mars Atmosphere to Collapse into Permanent Polarcaps

The presence of a permanent CO2 polar ice cap on Mars has important consequences for the planet's climate system. The heat balance of such a cap, which is determined mainly by atmospheric heat transport, and the downward solar in infrared radiative fluxes, determines its surface temperature, which through the vapor pressure relation sets the mean annual surface pressure. On Mars today, for example, the south residual CO2 cap is present year-round with a mean annual temperature of approximately 145 K which corresponds to a mean annual CO2 vapor pressure of approximately 600 Pa. On early Mars, permanent polar caps are also possible especially since the sun was less luminous 3.5-4.0 Gya. Thus, the existence of permanent polar caps on early Mars is central to understanding the nature of the planets climate system in those ancient times and whether or not the atmosphere might have been capable of sustaining conditions suitable for liquid water flowing over the surface as is indicated in the geological record. Forget et al [1] showed that for present orbital properties atmospheric collapse into permanent polar caps could only be prevented for surface pressures roughly between 500 - 3000 hPa. Though follow-on studies confirm and extend the Forget et al. results [2], the full sensitivity of this "window" of stability has not been explored. There are many factors to consider such the albedo of the caps, dust content of the atmosphere, and the presence of water ice clouds. However, we begin our exploration of the stability of the early Martian atmosphere by focusing on the role of CO2 ice clouds. In some preliminary simulations with the Ames Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) we found that atmospheric collapse depends on assumptions regarding the fate of CO2 ice clouds. If, for example, we assume the clouds immediately fall to the surface, then in some cases collapse is favored. On the other hand if the clouds are allowed to fall and evaporate, collapse can be averted. This implies that CO2 ice cloud microphysics is important to the overall stability of the atmosphere. Though the Ames GCM has a sophisticated CO2 cloud microphysics package that includes nucleation, growth, and sedimentation (see accompanying poster by Kahre et al. [3]), we have implemented a simpler scheme based on the Forget et al. [1] approach to CO2 ice clouds. Our goal is to reproduce and expand their study. The key parameter in this approach is the concentration and vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), i.e., dust particles. Fewer CCN lead to larger particles which fall faster, while higher CCN concentrations lead to smaller particles and thicker clouds that remain suspended for longer periods of time. We plan to explore the stability of the atmosphere to CCN concentrations and distributions and then assess the capability of thick early atmospheres to loft and distribute dust particles (CCN) around the planet. Thus, our work will shed light on the nature of the coupling between the dust and CO2 cycles and the implications it has for the early Mars climate system.

ice cap↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interplanetary Fast Shocks and Associated Drivers Observed through the Twenty-Third Solar Minimum by WIND Over its First 2.5 Years

A list of the interplanetary (IP) shocks observed by WIND from its launch (in November 1994) to May 1997 is presented. Forty two shocks were identified. The magnetohydrodynamic nature of the shocks is investigated, and the associated shock parameters and their uncertainties are accurately computed using a practical scheme which combines two techniques. These techniques are a combination of the "pre-averaged" magnetic-coplanarity, velocity-coplanarity, and the Abraham-Schrauner-mixed methods, on the one hand, and the Vinas and Scudder [1986] technique for solving the non-linear least-squares Rankine-Hugoniot shock equations, on the other. Within acceptable limits these two techniques generally gave the same results, with some exceptions. The reasons for the exceptions are discussed. It is found that the mean strength and rate of occurrence of the shocks appears to correlated with the solar cycle. Both showed a decrease in 1996 coincident with the time of the lowest ultraviolet solar radiance, indicative of solar minimum and start of solar cycle 23, which began around June 1996. Eighteen shocks appeared to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs). The distribution of their shock normals showed a mean direction peaking in the ecliptic plane and with a longitude (phi(sub n)) in that plane between perpendicular to the Parker spiral and radial from the Sun. When grouped according to the sense of the direction of propagation of the shocks the mean azimuthal (longitude) angle in GSE coordinates was approximately 194 deg for the fast-forward and approximately 20 deg for the fast-reverse shocks. Another 16 shocks were determined to be driven by solar transients, including magnetic clouds. These shocks had a broader distribution of normal directions than those of the CIR cases with a mean direction close to the Sun-Earth line. Eight shocks of unknown origin had normal orientation well off the ecliptic plane. No shock propagated with longitude phi(sub n) >= 220 +/- 10 deg, this would suggest strong hindrance to the propagation of shocks contra a rather tightly winding Parker spiral. Examination of the obliquity angle theta(sub Bn) (that between the shock normal and the upstream interplanetary magnetic field) for the full set of shocks revealed that about 58% was quasi-perpendicular, and some were very nearly perpendicular. About 32% of the shocks were oblique, and the rest (only 10%) were quasi-parallel, with one on Dec. 9, 1996 that showed field pulsations. Small uncertainty in the estimated angle theta(sub Bn) was obtained for about 10 shocks with magnetosonic Mach numbers between 1 and 2, hopefully significantly contributing to studies researching particle acceleration mechanisms at IP shocks, and to investigations where accurate values of theta(sub Bn) are crucial.

Mariani, F.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Large Eddy Simulation of Cirrus Clouds

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) with mesoscale interactive nested-grids and a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) version of RAMS, coupled to two-moment microphysics and a new two-stream radiative code were used to investigate the dynamic, microphysical, and radiative aspects of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event. Wu (1998) describes the results of that research in full detail and is enclosed as Appendix 1. The mesoscale nested grid simulation successfully reproduced the large scale circulation as compared to the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System's (MAPS) analyses and other observations. Three cloud bands which match nicely to the three cloud lines identified in an observational study (Mace et al., 1995) are predicted on Grid #2 of the nested grids, even though the mesoscale simulation predicts a larger west-east cloud width than what was observed. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes in the 26 November 1991 FIRE 11 cirrus event. The LES model is based on the RAMS version 3b developed at Colorado State University. It includes a new radiation scheme developed by Harrington (1997) and a new subgrid scale model developed by Kosovic (1996). The LES model simulated a single cloud layer for Case 1 and a two-layer cloud structure for Case 2. The simulations demonstrated that latent heat release can play a significant role in the formation and development of cirrus clouds. For the thin cirrus in Case 1, the latent heat release was insufficient for the cirrus clouds to become positively buoyant. However, in some special cases such as Case 2, positively buoyant cells can be embedded within the cirrus layers. These cells were so active that the rising updraft induced its own pressure perturbations that affected the cloud evolution. Vertical profiles of the total radiative and latent heating rates indicated that for well developed, deep, and active cirrus clouds, radiative cooling and latent heating could be comparable in magnitude in the cloudy layer. This implies that latent heating cannot be neglected in the construction of a cirrus cloud model. The probability density function (PDF) of w was analyzed to assist in the parameterization of cloud-scale velocities in large-scale models. For the more radiatively-driven, thin cirrus case, the PDFs are approximately Gaussian. However, in the interior of the deep, convectively unstable case, the PDFs of w are multi-modal and very broad, indicating that parameterizing cloud-scale motions for such clouds can be very challenging. The results of this research are described in detail in a paper submitted to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu and Cotton, 1999), which is enclosed as Appendix 2. Using soundings extracted from a mesoscale simulation of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, the radiative effects on vapor deposition/sublimation of ice crystals was studied using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) version of RAMS, coupled to an explicit bin-resolving microphysics. The CRM simulations of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event demonstrate that the radiative impact on the diffusional growth (or sublimation) of ice crystals is significant. In this case, the ice particles experienced radiative warming. Model results show that radiative feedbacks in the diffusional growth of ice particles can be very complex. Radiative warming of an ice particle will restrict the particle's diffusional growth. In the case of radiative warming, ice particles larger than a certain size will experience so much radiative warming that surface ice saturation vapor pressures become large enough to cause sublimation of the larger crystals, while smaller crystals are growing by vapor deposition. However, ice mass production can be enhanced in the case of radiative cooling of an ice particle. For the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, radiative feedback results in significant reduction in the total ice mass, especially in the production of large ice crystals, and consequently, both radiative and dynamic properties of the cirrus cloud are significantly affected. A complete description of this research has been submitted as a paper to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu et al., 1999), and included as Appendix 3.

Wu, Ting↗

NASA NTRS1997

Rendering Three-Dimensional Solar Coronal Structures

An X-ray or EUV image of the corona or chromosphere is a 2D representation of an extended 3D complex for which a general inversion process is impossible. A specific model must be incorporated in order to understand the full 3D structure. We approach this problem by modeling a set of optically-thin 3D plasma flux tubes which we render these as synthetic images. The resulting images allow the interpretation of the X-ray/EUV observations to obtain information on (1) the 3D structure of X-ray images, i.e., the geometric structure of the flux tubes, and on (2) the internal structure using specific plasma characteristics, i.e., the physical structure of the flux tubes. The data-analysis technique uses magnetograms to characterize photospheric magnetic fields and extrapolation techniques to form the field lines. Using a new set of software tools, we have generated 3D flux tube structures around these field lines and integrated the plasma emission along the line of sight to obtain a rendered image. A set of individual flux-tube images is selected by a non-negative least-squares technique to Provide a match with an observed X-ray image. The scheme minimizes the squares of the differences between the synthesized image and the observed image with a non-negative constraint on the coefficients of the brightness of the individual flux-tube loops. The derived images are used to determine the specific photospheric foot points and physical data, i.e., scaling laws for densities and loop lengths. The development has led to Computer efficient integration and display software that is compatible for comparison with observations (e.g., Yohkoh SXT data, NIXT, or EIT). This analysis is important in determining directly the magnetic field configuration, which provides the structure of coronal loops, and indirectly the electric currents or waves, which provide the energy for the heating of the plasma. We have used very simple assumptions (i.e., potential magnetic fields and isothermal corona) to provide an initial test of the techniques before complex models are introduced. We have separated the physical and geometric contributions of the emission for a set of flux tubes and concentrated, in this initial study, on the geometric contributions by making approximations to the physical contributions. The initial results are consistent with the scaling laws derived from Yohkoh SXT data.

Gary, G. Allen↗