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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Mode I, Mode II, and Mixed-Mode Fracture of Plasma-sprayed Thermal Barrier Coatings at Ambient and Elevated Temperatures

The mixed-mode fracture behavior of plasma-sprayed ZrO2-8 wt% Y2O3 thermal barrier coatings was determined in air at 25 and 1316 C in asymmetric four-point flexure with single edge v-notched beam (SEVNB) test specimens. The mode I fracture toughness was found to be K(sub Ic) = 1.15 plus or minus 0.07 and 0.98 plus or minus 0.13 MPa the square root of m, respectively, at 25 and 1316 C. The respective mode II fracture toughness values were K(sub IIc) = 0.73 plus or minus 0.10 and 0.65 plus or minus 0.04 MPa the square root of m. Hence, there was an insignificant difference in either K(sub Ic or K(sub IIc) between 25 and 1316 C for the coating material, whereas there was a noticeable distinction between K(sub Ic) and K(sub IIc), resulting in K(sub IIc) per K(sub Ic) = 0.65 at both temperatures. The empirical mixed-mode fracture criterion best described the coatings' mixed-mode fracture behavior among the four mixed-mode fracture theories considered. The angle of crack propagation was in reasonable agreement with the minimum strain energy density criterion. The effect of the directionality of the coating material in on K(sub Ic) was observed to be insignificant, while its sintering effect at 1316 C on K(sub Ic) was significant.

Choi, Sung R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Directionally Solidified NiAl-Based Alloys Studied for Improved Elevated-Temperature Strength and Room-Temperature Fracture Toughness

Efforts are underway to replace superalloys used in the hot sections of gas turbine engines with materials possessing better mechanical and physical properties. Alloys based on the intermetallic NiAl have demonstrated potential; however, they generally suffer from low fracture resistance (toughness) at room temperature and from poor strength at elevated temperatures. Directional solidification of NiAl alloyed with both Cr and Mo has yielded materials with useful toughness and elevated-temperature strength values. The intermetallic alloy NiAl has been proposed as an advanced material to extend the maximum operational temperature of gas turbine engines by several hundred degrees centigrade. This intermetallic alloy displays a lower density (approximately 30-percent less) and a higher thermal conductivity (4 to 8 times greater) than conventional superalloys as well as good high-temperature oxidation resistance. Unfortunately, unalloyed NiAl has poor elevated temperature strength (approximately 50 MPa at 1027 C) and low room-temperature fracture toughness (about 5 MPa). Directionally solidified NiAl eutectic alloys are known to possess a combination of high elevated-temperature strength and good room-temperature fracture toughness. Research has demonstrated that a NiAl matrix containing a uniform distribution of very thin Cr plates alloyed with Mo possessed both increased fracture toughness and elevated-temperature creep strength. Although attractive properties were obtained, these alloys were formed at low growth rates (greater than 19 mm/hr), which are considered to be economically unviable. Hence, an investigation was warranted of the strength and toughness behavior of NiAl-(Cr,Mo) directionally solidified at faster growth rates. If the mechanical properties did not deteriorate with increased growth rates, directional solidification could offer an economical means to produce NiAl-based alloys commercially for gas turbine engines. An investigation at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field was undertaken to study the effect of the directional solidification growth rate on the microstructure, room temperature fracture toughness, and strength at 1027 C of a Ni-33Al-31Cr-3Mo eutectic alloy. The directionally solidified rates varied between 7.6 and 508 millimeters per hour Essentially fault-free, alternating (Cr, Mo)/NiAl lamellar plate microstructures (left photograph) were formed during growth at and below 12.7 mm/hr, whereas cellular microstructures (right photograph) with the (Cr, Mo) phase in a radial spokelike pattern were developed at faster growth rates. The compressive strength at 1027 C continuously increased with increasing growth rate and did not indicate a maxima as was reported for directionally solidified Ni-33Al-34Cr. Surprisingly, samples with the lamellar plate microstructure (left photograph) possessed a room-temperature fracture toughness of approximately 12 MPa(sup square root of m), whereas all the alloys with a cellular microstructure had a toughness of about 17 MPa(sup square root of m). These results are significant since they clearly demonstrate that Ni-33Al-31Cr-3Mo can be directionally solidified at much faster growth rates without any observable deterioration in its mechanical properties. Thus, the potential to produce strong, tough NiAl-based eutectics at commercially acceptable growth rates exists. Additional testing and alloy optimization studies are underway.

Whittenberger, J. Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2005

Micromechanics, Fracture Mechanics and Gas Permeability of Composite Laminates for Cryogenic Storage Systems

A micromechanics method is developed to investigate microcrack propagation in a liquid hydrogen composite tank at cryogenic temperature. The unit cell is modeled using square and hexagonal shapes depends on fiber and matrix layout from microscopic images of composite laminates. Periodic boundary conditions are applied to the unit cell. The temperature dependent properties are taken into account in the analysis. The laminate properties estimated by the micromechanics method are compared with empirical solutions using constituent properties. The micro stresses in the fiber and matrix phases based on boundary conditions in laminate level are calculated to predict the formation of microcracks in the matrix. The method is applied to an actual liquid hydrogen storage system. The analysis predicts micro stresses in the matrix phase are large enough to cause microcracks in the composite. Stress singularity of a transverse crack normal to a ply-interface is investigated to predict the fracture behavior at cryogenic conditions using analytical and finite element analysis. When a transverse crack touches a ply-interface of a composite layer with same fiber orientation, the stress singularity is equal to 1/2. When the transverse crack propagates to a stiffer layer normal to the ply-direction, the singularity becomes less than 1/2 and vice versa. Finite element analysis is performed to predict the fracture toughness of a laminated beam subjected to fracture loads measured by four-point bending tests at room and cryogenic temperatures. As results, the fracture load at cryogenic temperature is significantly lower than that at room temperature. However, when thermal stresses are taken into consideration, for both cases of room and cryogenic temperatures, the difference of the fracture toughness becomes insignificant. The result indicates fracture toughness is a characteristic property, which is independent to temperature changes. The experimental analysis is performed to investigate the effect of cryogenic cycling on permeability for various composite material systems. Textile composites have lower permeability than laminated composites even with increasing number of cryogenic cycle. Nano-particles dispersed in laminated composites do not show improvement on permeability. The optical inspection is performed to investigate the microcrack propagation and void content in laminated composites and compared the microscopic results before and after cryogenic cycling.

Choi, Sukjoo↗
NASA NTRS2005

Fabrication and Probabilistic Fracture Strength Prediction of High-Aspect-Ratio Single Crystal Silicon Carbide Microspecimens With Stress Concentration

Single crystal silicon carbide micro-sized tensile specimens were fabricated with deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) in order to investigate the effect of stress concentration on the room-temperature fracture strength. The fracture strength was defined as the level of stress at the highest stressed location in the structure at the instant of specimen rupture. Specimens with an elliptical hole, a circular hole, and without a hole (and hence with no stress concentration) were made. The average fracture strength of specimens with a higher stress concentration was larger than the average fracture strength of specimens with a lower stress concentration. Average strength of elliptical-hole, circular-hole, and without-hole specimens was 1.53, 1.26, and 0.66 GPa, respectively. Significant scatter in strength was observed with the Weibull modulus ranging between 2 and 6. No fractographic examination was performed but it was assumed that the strength controlling flaws originated from etching grooves along the specimen side-walls. The increase of observed fracture strength with increasing stress concentration was compared to predictions made with the Weibull stress-integral formulation by using the NASA CARES/Life code. In the analysis isotropic material and fracture behavior was assumed - hence it was not a completely rigorous analysis. However, even with these assumptions good correlation was achieved for the circular-hole specimen data when using the specimen data without stress concentration as a baseline. Strength was over predicted for the elliptical-hole specimen data. Significant specimen-to-specimen dimensional variation existed in the elliptical-hole specimens due to variations in the nickel mask used in the etching. To simulate the additional effect of the dimensional variability on the probabilistic strength response for the single crystal specimens the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) was used with CARES/Life.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Mechanistic Study of Delamination Fracture in Al-Li Alloy C458 (2099)

Delamination fracture has limited the use of lightweight Al-Li alloys. In the present study, electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) methods were used to characterize crack paths in Al-Li alloy C458 (2099). Secondary delamination cracks in fracture toughness samples showed a pronounced tendency for fracture between grain variants of the same deformation texture component. These results were analyzed by EBSD mapping methods and simulated with finite element analyses. Simulation procedures include a description of material anisotropy, local grain orientations, and fracture utilizing crystal plasticity and cohesive zone elements. Taylor factors computed for each grain orientation subjected to normal and shear stresses indicated that grain pairs with the largest Taylor factor differences were adjacent to boundaries that failed by delamination. Examination of matching delamination fracture surface pairs revealed pronounced slip bands in only one of the grains bordering the delamination. These results, along with EBSD studies, plasticity simulations, and Auger electron spectroscopy observations support a hypothesis that delamination fracture occurs due to poor slip accommodation along boundaries between grains with greatly differing plastic response.

Tayon, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

Ellman, R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Extravehicular Suit Impact Load Attenuation Study for Use in Astronaut Bone Fracture Prediction

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fracture of the proximal femur is a traumatic injury that would likely result in loss of mission if it were to happen during spaceflight. The low gravity exposure causes decreases in bone mineral density which heightens the concern. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have quantified bone fracture probability during spaceflight with a probabilistic model. It was assumed that a pressurized extravehicular activity (EVA) suit would attenuate load during a fall, but no supporting data was available. The suit impact load attenuation study was performed to collect analogous data. METHODS: A pressurized EVA suit analog test bed was used to study how the offset, defined as the gap between the suit and the astronaut s body, impact load magnitude and suit operating pressure affects the attenuation of impact load. The attenuation data was incorporated into the probabilistic model of bone fracture as a function of these factors, replacing a load attenuation value based on commercial hip protectors. RESULTS: Load attenuation was more dependent on offset than on pressurization or load magnitude, especially at small offsets. Load attenuation factors for offsets between 0.1 - 1.5 cm were 0.69 +/- 0.15, 0.49 +/- 0.22 and 0.35 +/- 0.18 for mean impact forces of 4827, 6400 and 8467 N, respectively. Load attenuation factors for offsets of 2.8 - 5.3 cm were 0.93 +/- 0.2, 0.94 +/- 0.1 and 0.84 +/- 0.5, for the same mean impact forces. Reductions were observed in the 95th percentile confidence interval of the bone fracture probability predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in uncertainty and improved confidence in bone fracture predictions increased the fidelity and credibility of the fracture risk model and its benefit to mission design and operational decisions.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Lunar Floor-Fractured Craters: Classification, Distribution and Implications for Magmatism and Shallow Crustal Structure

Floor-fractured craters (FFCs) are a class of lunar craters defined by their distinctly shallow, often plate-like floors, and combinations of radial, con-centric, and polygonal floor-fractures; a variety of other interior features are often observed, such as moats, ridges, small dark-haloed pits, and patches of mare material. They were first classified by Schultz [1] , who recognized eight overall types of floor-fractured crater. These eight subtypes have widely differing appearances, a factor that could provide insight into formation mechanisms (different manifestations of the same mechanism, or indicators of varying formation mechanisms). Two formation mechanisms for FFCs were initially proposed: 1) magmatic intrusion [1], in which magma rising toward the surface in dikes encountered low-density breccia lenses beneath crater floors and spread laterally to form sills, raising and fracturing the crater floor. 2) viscous relaxation [2], in which the properties of the crust permitted viscous flow in the vicinity of the crater, causing long-wavelength relaxation of the topography and uplift and fracturing of the crater floor. Critical to distinguishing between these two end-member hypotheses and identifying others is a quantitative assessment of the topography of FFCs and knowledge of their regional and local settings. The purpose of this study is to use newly available Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) altimeter and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) image data to provide an updated global catalog of the locations, classes, morphometric and morphologic characteristics of all lunar floor-fractured craters. We use the excellent 8-class system initially described in Schultz [1] as a starting point for classification and the enhanced LOLA/LROC data sets to examine and categorize all FFCs; we found evidence for a new FFC class, discernably different from the previously existing types. Our approach, and the global categorization of all FFCs, permits the spatial distribution of each FFC-subtype to be plotted and assessed allowing for further investigation into FFC formation mechanisms. Upon completion, the data set will be made available on our web site at http://www.planetary.brown.edu/html_pages/data.htm.

Jozwiak, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Intralaminar and Interlaminar Mode-I Fracture Toughness of Unidirectional IM7/8552 Graphite/Epoxy Composite

The intralaminar and interlaminar mode-I fracture-toughness of a unidirectional IM7/8552 graphite/epoxy composite were measured using compact tension (CT) and double cantilever beam (DCB) test specimens, respectively. Two starter crack geometries were considered for both the CT and DCB specimen configurations. In the first case, starter cracks were produced by 12.5 micron thick, Teflon film inserts. In the second case, considerably sharper starter cracks were produced by fatigue precracking. For each specimen configuration, use of the Teflon film starter cracks resulted in initially unstable crack growth and artificially high initiation fracture-toughness values. Conversely, specimens with fatigue precracks exhibited stable growth onset and lower initiation fracture toughness. For CT and DCB specimens with fatigue precracks, the intralaminar and interlaminar initiation fracture toughnesses were approximately equal. However, during propagation, the CT specimens exhibited more extensive fiber bridging, and rapidly increasing R-curve behavior as compared to the DCB specimens. Observations of initiation and propagation of intralaminar and interlaminar fracture, and the measurements of fracture toughness, were supported by fractographic analysis using scanning electron microscopy.

Czabaj, Michael W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Mixed Mode Fracture of Plasma Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coatings: Effects of Anisotropy and Heterogeneity

The combined mode I-mode II fracture behavior of anisotropic ZrO2-8wt%Y2O3 thermal barrier coatings was determined in asymmetric flexure loading at both ambient and elevated temperatures. A fracture envelope of KI versus KII was determined for the coating material at ambient and elevated temperatures. Propagation angles of fracture as a function of KI/KII were also determined. The mixed-mode fracture behavior of the microsplat coating material was modeled using Finite Element approach to account for anisotropy and micro cracked structures, and predicted in terms of fracture envelope and propagation angle using mixed-mode fracture theories.

Zhu, Dongming↗
NASA NTRS2013

Applications of Automation Methods for Nonlinear Fracture Test Analysis

As fracture mechanics material testing evolves, the governing test standards continue to be refined to better reflect the latest understanding of the physics of the fracture processes involved. The traditional format of ASTM fracture testing standards, utilizing equations expressed directly in the text of the standard to assess the experimental result, is self-limiting in the complexity that can be reasonably captured. The use of automated analysis techniques to draw upon a rich, detailed solution database for assessing fracture mechanics tests provides a foundation for a new approach to testing standards that enables routine users to obtain highly reliable assessments of tests involving complex, non-linear fracture behavior. Herein, the case for automating the analysis of tests of surface cracks in tension in the elastic-plastic regime is utilized as an example of how such a database can be generated and implemented for use in the ASTM standards framework. The presented approach forms a bridge between the equation-based fracture testing standards of today and the next generation of standards solving complex problems through analysis automation.

Allen, Phillip A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discrete fracture network model benchmarks developed and applied in a DECOVALEX-2023 repository performance assessment study

This study presents newly developed benchmarks for modeling flow and transport within discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and useful methods for analyzing the results. The new benchmarks are designed to test modeling approaches for use in probabilistic performance assessment models of deep geologic repositories in fractured rock. The benchmarks simulate flow and transport through a 1 km 3 block of fractured rock. The first simulates migration of a short pulse of tracer through a simple network of four intersecting fractures. The second adds 1089 stochastically generated fractures. The third changes the pulse to a continuous point source. Evaluation of model performance relies on moment analysis and comparison of the results of different models. The expected nondimensional first moment of the conservative tracer for each benchmark is 1. The benchmarks were simulated by teams from Canada, Czechia, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United States as part of a DECOVALEX-2023 study (decovalex.org). The teams used various approaches, including explicit DFN modeling, DFN upscaling to an equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM), and a combination of both methods. Transport mechanisms are modeled using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Results demonstrate strong agreement among the models in breakthrough behavior up to the 75th percentile. Significant deviations in first moments and well-clustered outputs led to the identification of inaccuracies in several models. Such findings exemplify the benefit of exercising these benchmarks and using the presented methods to test DFN flow and transport models.

Benchmark↗
NASA NTRS1987

Compartment syndrome of the thigh complicating surgical treatment of ipsilateral femur and ankle fractures

A 26-year-old man presented with ipsilateral femur and ankle fractures. The patient was treated with interlocking nail of his femur fracture, followed by open reduction and internal fixation of his ankle fracture under tourniquet control. Postoperatively, the patient developed compartment syndrome of his thigh with elevated pressures, requiring decompressive fasciotomies. This case illustrates the possible complication of treating a femur fracture with intramedullary nailing and then immediately applying a tourniquet to treat an ipsilateral extremity fracture. Because of the complication with this patient, we feel the procedure should be staged, or a tourniquet should be avoided if possible.

Case Reports↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 5-2565: Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions by United States Geological Survey, presented by Tamara Jeppson. This video slide presentation, by the USGS, discusses the determination of how thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) processes affect the sustainability of fracture networks in geothermal reservoirs. This includes (1) the qualification of rates of change of fracture properties, (2) the parameterization of modes of reaction, (3) the development of micromechanical and empirical fracture models, and (4) extended THMC models for laboratory- and reservoir-scale models. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the roles of welding residual stresses in determination of fracture toughness in austenitic stainless steel SUS 304 pipeline girth welds

Welding residual stresses especially the high tensile stresses are proved to have negative impacts on the fatigue and fracture behaviors of welded structures. In this study, a virtual fabrication of test specimens from welding process to specimen preparation was carried out by numerical simulation. An austenitic stainless steel multi-pass pipe welding was simulated by transient thermal–mechanical finite element analysis, the residual stresses were then mapped into the test specimen to evaluate fracture toughness. The findings in this study confirmed that, residual stress can be high in a sub-sized compact tensile specimen, which may accelerate or hinder the crack propagation during actual fatigue and fracture tests as reported in recent years. The influence of the cutting location and orientation of the specimen on fracture performance was investigated systematically to provide a fundamental understanding of welding residual stress and necessary insights into the specimen preparation procedure. Considering the limitation of measuring techniques and the complexity of the stress distribution, the developed numerical model can be a very useful tool to elucidate the stress evolution and quantify the effect of remaining welding stress on fracture toughness.

Fracture behavior↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D seismic imaging of a fracture damage zone controlling reservoir compartmentalization at the Raft River EGS using multi-azimuth walkaway VSP

Accurate imaging of steeply dipping fracture zones in crystalline enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) is critical for constraining permeability architecture and guiding stimulation design. However, such structures remain poorly resolved by conventional surface seismic methods. We present a fully three-dimensional (3D) elastic-waveform inversion-migration workflow applied to multi-azimuth walkaway vertical seismic profiling (VSP) data acquired in a deviated borehole at the Raft River EGS. The workflow integrates first-arrival traveltime tomography, multi-scale elastic waveform inversion (EWI), and elastic least-squares reverse-time migration (ELSRTM) to recover high-resolution compressional-and shear-wave velocity models and to image structural discontinuities in the crystalline basement. The results reveal a laterally continuous low-velocity anomaly, with shear-wave velocity reductions of 25-30%, consistent with fractureinduced mechanical weakening. Two steeply dipping discontinuities bound a 50-80 m wide fracture damage zone. Independent constraints from microseismic clustering and geochemical compartmentalization corroborate the geometry and structural significance of this feature. Synthetic modeling further confirms that structures of this scale are resolvable (~30 m). These findings indicate that the Narrows structure is a distributed fracture damage zone rather than a discrete fault plane. By resolving fracture-zone geometry at the tens-of-meters scale using a single borehole, this workflow provides a practical and transferable approach for improving structural characterization, reducing uncertainty in permeability architecture, and supporting reservoir modeling and stimulation design in fractured crystalline EGS reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗