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At least 199 records · Page 11

Resilient buildings for fire-adapted landscapes: EE and flexible loads integrated with solar and storage microgrids

Energy efficiency (EE) and flexible loads can be part of a resilient buildings packagewhen they are combined with solar and storage in a clean energy microgrid to reduce the carbonfootprint of buildings and enable resilience to extreme events. Recent large wildfires and an emerging understanding of the fire-adapted landscapes in the American West underscore the urgency of work towards scaling and commercializing these systems. For example, a recent power shutoff in Northern California (October 9-12, 2019) resulted in 738k customers disconnected at the peak of the outage and is emblematic of challenges to come. Our paper reports on insights from a clean energy microgrid deployment pilot that integrates a 50 kWAC PV array, a 109 kW / 174 kWh battery system, switchgear to safely isolate from the regional power system, and communicating controllers for HVAC and refrigeration. The project will be commissioned in May 2020 and is sited at a critical infrastructure site in rural Northern California – in this case a gasoline station with convenience store. Our experience and results shed light on capabilities of integrated microgrids to provide value to customers during blue sky conditions and resilience during black sky days with high fire risk, and what opportunities and barriers exist for scaling these integrated microgrid systems in the near term. We use a simulation model to estimate how EE and flexibility can extend the run time of solar and storage, improving the reliability of power at critical sites.

Alstone, Peter↗

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

Towards Plume Impingement Modeling in Space Environments

After 30 years human presence in low-earth orbit, NASA is returning to the moon and eventually will go to Mars. To this end, NASA is constructing the Lunar Gateway, an ISS-like space station to act as a home base for Lunar exploration. A large space station must be assembled while in orbit, using a “piecemeal” approach. In this context, it means that the different modules will arrive at different times and attach to what is already in service. The ISS provides an excellent example of this approach, and the proposed Lunar Gateway will undergo a similar assembly process. This assembly is achieved via “docking” maneuvers between modules, which are made possible by sequential firings of the onboard reaction control system (RCS) thrusters. They work by firing hot gases to produce adverse thrust and the needed change in velocity to safely finish the docking approach. The issue is that the gas from these thrusters' forms flow structures described as “plumes” and can impinge onto the outer surfaces of the space station, causing unwanted forces and moments, heat loads, sediment deposition, and in extreme cases, even surface erosion. All mechanisms that can damage the space station and must be avoided. Both permanent and visiting modules will have these RCS thruster exhaust impingement problems. Accurately and efficiently modeling these plume is an involved multi-physics calculation but also an important tool when designing the control algorithms of approaching modules. This poster presents progress towards this simulation on two fronts. First is the verification of OpenFOAM for rarefied plume impingement calculations by direct comparison to published DAC cases. Second is the estimation of plume impingement strikes over the time scale of an entire docking event. This is done by using a simple plume source flow model and a prescribed motion visualizer—coded in Python. Together these tools help push NASA's capabilities for simulating these plume impingement effects.

Rarefied Flows↗

Simulation of ENSO Teleconnections to Precipitation Extremes over the United States in the High-Resolution Version of E3SM

Abstract We evaluate the simulated teleconnection of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to winter season precipitation extremes over the United States in a long (98 years) 1950 control high-resolution version (HR; 25-km nominal atmosphere model horizontal resolution) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The model bias and spatial pattern of ENSO teleconnections to mean and extreme precipitation in HR overall are similar to the low-resolution model’s (LR; 110 km) historical simulation (four-member ensemble, 1925–59). However, over the southeastern United States (SE-U.S.), HR produces stronger El Niño–associated extremes, reducing LR’s model bias. Both LR and HR produce weaker than observed increase in storm track activity during El Niño events there, but HR improves the ENSO-associated variability of moisture transport over SE-U.S. During El Niño, stronger vertical velocities in HR produce stronger large-scale precipitation, causing larger latent heating of the troposphere that pulls in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE-U.S. This positive feedback also contributes to the stronger mean and extreme precipitation response in HR. Over the Pacific Northwest, LR’s bias of stronger than observed La Niña associated extremes is amplified in HR. Both models simulate stronger than observed moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean into the region during La Niña years. The amplified HR bias there is due to stronger orographically driven vertical updrafts that create stronger large-scale precipitation, despite weaker La Niña–induced storm track activity. Significance Statement New high-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) solve mathematical equations of fluid flow at much smaller spatial scales than prevalent ESMs, and thus are prohibitively expensive to compute. However, they can be useful for simulating accurate details of regional climate extremes that are driven by naturally occurring climate oscillations like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we evaluate the simulation of ENSO-driven precipitation extremes over the United States in the high-resolution version of the U.S. Department of Energy’s new Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1. We find that the high-resolution model improves upon its low-resolution counterpart over the southeastern United States by producing a better transport of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico during El Niño. Over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the high-resolution model simulates the atmospheric flow in more detail over the complex mountainous terrain. However, it also brings in more moisture from the Pacific Ocean just like the low-resolution model. This causes it to produce precipitation extremes during La Niña years there that are stronger than that observed in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extended Magnetohydrodynamics with Embedded Particle-in-Cell Simulation of Ganymede's Magnetosphere

We have recently developed a new modeling capability to embed the implicit particle-in-cell (PIC) model iPIC3D into the Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. The MHD with embedded PIC domains (MHO-EPIC) algorithm Is a two-way coupled kinetic-fluid model. As one of the very first applications of the MHD-EPIC algorithm, we simulate the Interaction between Jupiter's magnetospherlc plasma and Ganymede's magnetosphere. We compare the MHO-EPIC simulations with pure Hall MHD simulations and compare both model results with Galileo observations to assess the Importance of kinetic effects In controlling the configuration and dynamics of Ganymede's magnetosphere. We find that the Hall MHD and MHO-EPIC solutions are qualitatively similar, but there are significant quantitative differences. In particular. the density and pressure inside the magnetosphere show different distributions. For our baseline grid resolution the PIC solution is more dynamic than the Hall MHD simulation and it compares significantly better with the Galileo magnetic measurements than the Hall MHD solution. The power spectra of the observed and simulated magnetic field fluctuations agree extremely well for the MHD-EPIC model. The MHO-EPIC simulation also produced a few flux transfer events (FTEs) that have magnetic signatures very similar to an observed event. The simulation shows that the FTEs often exhibit complex 3-0 structures with their orientations changing substantially between the equatorial plane and the Galileo trajectory, which explains the magnetic signatures observed during the magnetopause crossings. The computational cost of the MHO-EPIC simulation was only about 4 times more than that of the Hall MHD simulation.

Toth, Gabor↗

Expanding Ketamine Application for Treatment of Acute Suicidality in Long-Duration Spaceflight

Introduction. The transition to exploration missions places a heightened risk on behavioral health in spaceflight. Although serious psychiatric emergencies during spaceflight have been rare, longer duration missions increase the possibility of emergence in latent mental health disorders due to genetic predisposition, increased autonomy, isolation, helplessness, loss of family member, or catastrophic events. Complicated grief and bereavement have the highest rate of suicidal ideation. Recently, ketamine has been used as an emergent intervention for acute suicidality, promoting its stability, ease of administration, favorable safety profile, and outcomes for reduction of suicidal intent. The goal of this study was to review current literature and collate the understanding of ketamine as a safe, effective pharmacological adjunct for acute suicidality in spaceflight. Methods. This literature review was conducted to collate data on ketamine use for acute suicidality and inform on stability, limitations and utilization of ketamine within extreme environments. Results. 122 publications were reviewed for relevance including 23 randomized-control trials for ketamine use in behavioral emergencies. Discussion. Ketamine is a diverse pharmaceutical with multiple advantageous indications, including acute suicidality, pain, and sedation. Terrestrial use of ketamine suggests a rapidly efficacious medication for reduction in acute suicidality. As behavioral stressors expand related to extended missions, contingencies for behavioral emergencies become increasingly important. Although this review is not intended to re-develop current International Space Station (ISS) protocols, it is the first to discuss the benefits of ketamine in spaceflight as a potential safe, effective multifaceted tool for future exploration missions and treatment for acute suicidal ideation.

Ketamine, Suicidality, Spaceflight↗

Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate

Global warming is altering flood risks induced by rain-on-snow events. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how rain-on-snow induced extreme floods could be altered with warming. Here, storyline analyses using a kilometer-scale land surface model reveal diverse responses of four historically-impactful, decision-relevant rain-on-snow induced extreme flood events over the contiguous U.S. to warming, due to alterations in their water budgets. For the 2017-Feb California floods, runoff first increases and then decreases with warming, peaking under the +3 K scenario, while runoff of the 2017-Jan California floods increases monotonically by ~53%/K. Contrastingly, runoff of the 1996-Jan Mid-Atlantic floods decreases gradually with warming. Despite these differences, warming generally shifts flood-generating regimes along elevation profiles. High elevations could experience notably increased runoff, while low elevations encounter a shift from rain-on-snow-driven to rainfall-dominated runoff. These findings underscore the need for flood control planning to quantify region- and elevation-specific changes in rain-on-snow events in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coastal Community Resiliency Enhancement Using Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Resources and Networked Microgrids

Enormous challenges are inherent in the operation of modern distribution grids. In particular, distribution feeders can be severely compromised under extreme conditions such as large-scale weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, and other types of natural disasters). To combat this problem, they turn to local energy support from distributed energy resources, such as solar and wind, marine hydrolinetic (MHK), and other types of energy. In this report, we investigate the actual characteristics of MHK resources to enhance coastal community resiliency. Two typical types of MHK resources (i.e., wave and tidal resources) illustrate the coastal resilience enhancement framework. By identifying their operational characteristics, such as target time-scales and potential power generation variations, we detail a holistic coastal community resiliency enhancement framework that integrates both optimization and control efforts. The optimization problem is formulated to significantly minimize the power outage time at the critical infrastructures in coastal communities by implementing multiple autonomous and dynamic microgrids around MHK resources. Therefore, during severe power outages caused by natural disasters (e.g., floods, hurricanes), the coastal community load profiles can be satisfied using local MHK resources in each microgrid with limited or no power support from upstream power grids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Valuing Resilience Benefits of Microgrids for an Interconnected Island Distribution System

Extreme climate-driven events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more intense in areas exposed to these threats, requiring approaches to improve the resilience of the electrical infrastructure serving these communities. Long-duration outages caused by such high impact events propagate to economic, health, and social consequences for communities. As essential service providers, electric utilities are mandated to provide safe, economical and reliable electricity to their customers. The public is becoming less tolerant to these more frequent disruptions, especially in view of technological advances that are intended to improve power quality, reliability and resilience. One promising solution is state-of-the-art microgrids and the advanced controls employed therein. This paper presents and demonstrates an approach to technoeconomic analysis that can be used to value the avoided economic consequences of grid resilience investments, as applied to the islands of Vieques and Culebra in Puerto Rico. This valuation methodology can support policies to incorporate resilience value into any investment decision-making process, especially those which serve the public interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tamped Richtmyer–Meshkov Instability Experiments to Probe High-Pressure Material Strength

Abstract Dynamic interface instabilities such as Rayleigh–Taylor, Kelvin–Helmholtz, and Richtmyer–Meshkov are important in a number of physical phenomena. Besides meriting study because of their role in natural events and man-made applications, they can also be used to study constitutive properties of materials in extreme conditions. Both RTI and RMI configurations have been used to study the strength of solids at high strain rates, though RMI has largely been limited to zero or ambient pressure. Recently, advances in imaging have allowed tamped RMI experiments to be performed in which the pressure is maintained above ambient. In this study, we examine the tamped RMI for determining material strength. Through simulation, we explore the behavior of the jetting material and examine the sensitivity of jetting to material properties. We identify simple scaling laws that relate the key physical parameters controlling jetting, which are compared to previous results from the literature. We use these scaling law and other considerations to examine issues associated with tamped RMI experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Burning and Suppression of Solids–II (BASS-II) Summary Report

The Burning and Suppression of Solids (BASS) experiment hardware is a small flow duct that provides containment for small scale burning of solid samples within the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) aboard the International Space Station (ISS). A video camera with a data overlay and a 35-mm still camera record the combustion events. The controls (ignition, fan speed, etc.) are operated by an astronaut while the principal investigator team monitors the experiment from the ground and communicates directly with the astronaut. For the first time on ISS, BASS–II utilized MSG working volume dilution with gaseous N2. We developed a perfectly stirred reactor model to determine the N2 flow time and flow rate to obtain the desired reduced O2 concentration in the working volume for each test. We calibrated the model with the Compound Specific Analyzer-Combustion Products (CSA-CP) O2 readings offset using the Major Constituents Analyzer reading of the ISS ambient atmosphere data for that day. This worked out extremely well for operations, and added a new vital variable, ambient O2 level, to our test matrices. The main variables tested in BASS–II were ambient O2 concentration, ventilation flow velocity, and fuel type, thickness, and geometry. BASS–II also utilized the onboard CSA-CP for O2 and CO readings, and the Carbon Dioxide Monitor for CO2 readings before and after each test. Readings from these sensors allow us to evaluate the completeness of the combustion. The O2 and CO2 readings before and after each test were analyzed and compared very well to stoichiometric ratios for a one-step gas-phase reaction. The CO versus CO2 followed a linear trend for some datasets, but not for all the different geometries of fuel and flow tested. We calculated the heat release rates during each test from the O2 consumption and burn times, using the constant 13.1 kJ of heat released per gram of O2 consumed. The results showed that most of the tests had heat release rates well below 100 W. Lastly, the global equivalence ratio for the tests is estimated to be fuel rich, 1.3 on average using mass loss and O2 consumption data.

Microgravity↗

Bias Correction for Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Profiles of Temperature and Humidity

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short‐term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. Forecasts are against ERA reanalyses.

Blakenship, Clay↗

Bias Correction for Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Profiles of Temperature and Humidity

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short-term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. This paper will describe the bias correction technique and results from forecasts evaluated by validation against a Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product from CIRA and against Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses.

Blankenship, Clay↗

Envisioning the Future Renewable and Resilient Energy Grids—A Power Grid Revolution Enabled by Renewables, Energy Storage, and Energy Electronics

Today’s power grids are facing tremendous challenges because of the ever-increasing power demand, system complexity, infrastructure cost, knowledge base, and policy and regulatory issues to achieve supply–demand power balance and resiliency with respect to more frequent extreme weather events and cyberattacks. It is particularly challenging when the transition toward 100% intermittent renewable energy sources is considered. Many countries are calling for building up more transmission and distribution lines to increase power delivery capacities. This article is an attempt to answer two urgent questions: Is more transmission and distribution infrastructure really needed to meet the increasing power demand? What kind of future grid infrastructure should we envision and build? This article attempts to answer these questions and proposes the concept of community-centric asynchronous renewable and resilient energy grids. By clearly differentiating the concepts of grid resilience and reliability, the importance of building resilient power electronics’ devices and robust system-level control algorithms to achieve 100% renewable energy integrated resilient grids is presented. To identify the shortcomings and propose advancements, power electronics’ technologies are categorized using the proposed concepts of natural source frequencies (NSf), energy storage, direct energy conversion/control and fault protection (DeCaFp), and high-efficiency energy consumption and buffering (heECaB) technology. The ability of networked microgrids to greatly reduce power outages and power system restoration time is demonstrated by leveraging robust decentralized and centralized control algorithms, identified through a comprehensive literature review. Future research areas are proposed to further enhance grid stability, controllability, cybersecurity, and protection against faults in the presence of 100% renewable sources by leveraging the advanced capabilities of NSf, DeCaFp, and heECaB devices and system-level control algorithms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Antecedent conditions determine the biogeochemical response of coastal soils to seawater exposure

Coastal landscapes are increasingly exposed to seawater due to sea level rise and extreme weather events. The biogeochemical responses of these vulnerable ecosystems are poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict how their role in local and global biogeochemical cycles will shift under future conditions. Here we evaluate how antecedent conditions influence the biogeochemical response of soil to seawater inundation events based on a 42-day laboratory incubation experiment with soils collected from a natural salinity gradient across a coastal floodplain. We quantified influences of seawater inundation on intact soil cores through high-frequency carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) gas fluxes measurements as well as ultrahigh resolution characterization of organic matter chemistry and metabolites. Mean CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes were higher after inundation compared to control cores for soils that had low in situ salinity. Soils with low in situ salinity also exhibited significant shifts in organic matter profiles after inundation, with surficial soils (0-7.5 cm) becoming more enriched in phenolic compounds, compared to deeper soils (7.5-15 cm). The number of biochemical transformations inferred from mass spectrometry increased significantly after inundation for soils with low in situ salinity, and a trend of decreasing thermodynamic favorability with increasing salinity was observed, suggesting an increase in microbial activity following inundation. Our results suggest that seawater inundation of low-salinity terrestrial environments can lead to increased microbial activity, preferential depletion of more thermodynamically favorable compounds, and increased soil carbon release. Finally, we conclude that the biogeochemical impacts of future seawater exposure will be modulated by antecedent conditions associated with landscape position within coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning method for enforcing variable independence in background estimation with LHC data: ABCDisCoTEC

A novel solution is presented for the problem of estimating the backgrounds of a signal search using observed data while simultaneously maximizing the sensitivity of the search to the signal. The 'ABCD method' provides a reliable framework for background estimation by partitioning events into one signal-enhanced region (A) and three background-enhanced control regions (B, C, and D) via two smoothly varying, statistically independent variables. In practice, even slight correlations between the two variables can significantly undermine the method's performance. Thus, choosing appropriate variables by hand can present a formidable challenge, especially when background and signal differ only subtly. To address this issue, the ABCD with distance correlation (ABCDisCo) method was developed to construct two learned variables via a neural network trained to provide strong signal-background discrimination with small values of the distance correlation (DisCo) measure between the two learned variables. However, relying solely on minimizing the DisCo can result in learned variables that may not have distributions of background events that are smoothly varying and localized at extreme values, as necessary for the validity of the background estimation. The ABCDisCo training enhanced with closure (ABCDisCoTEC) method is introduced to solve this issue by directly minimizing the nonclosure, expressed as a dedicated differentiable loss term. This extended method is applied to a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Additionally, given the complexity of the minimization problem with constraints on multiple loss terms, the modified differential method of multipliers is applied and shown to greatly improve the stability and robustness of the ABCDisCoTEC method, compared to grid search hyperparameter optimization procedures.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air-Operated Valves 1998–2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air-operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The AOV failure modes considered are failure-to-open/close (FTOC), failure to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following trends were identified for the most recent 10-year period: o Extremely statistically significant increasing trend for the frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year) for low-demand (= 20 demands per year) AOVs o Extremely statistically significant increasing trend for the frequency of FTOC demands for high-demand (> 20 demands per year) AOVs o Highly statistically significant decreasing trend for the failure rate of FTOP for low-demand AOVs o Highly statistically significant decreasing trend for the frequency of FTOP events (failures per reactor year) for low-demand AOVs o Statistically significant decreasing trend for the failure rate of SO for low-demand AOVs o Statistically significant decreasing trend for the frequency of SO events (failures per reactor year) for low-demand AOVs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

What can neutron stars reveal about the equation of state of dense matter?

Neutron stars are astrophysical objects of extremes, reaching the highest densities we can observe in the cosmos, and probing matter under conditions that cannot be recreated in terrestrial experiments. In August 2017, the first neutron-star merger has been observed, which provided compelling evidence that these events are an important site for r-process nucleosynthesis. Furthermore, the gravitational-wave signal of such events might shed light upon the nature of strongly interacting matter in the neutron-star core. To understand these remarkable events, reliable nuclear physics input is essential. In this contribution, I explain how to use chiral effective field theory and advanced many-body methods to provide a consistent and systematic approach to strongly inter- acting systems from nuclei to neutron stars with controlled theoretical uncertainties. I will discuss recent results for the equation of state relevant for the nuclear astrophysics of neutron stars and neutron-star mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗