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At least 199 records · Page 11

Effect of a Fine-Scale Layered Structure of the Atmosphere on Infrasound Signals from Fragmenting Meteoroids

We investigate the influence of a fine-scale (FS) layered structure in the atmosphere on the propagation of infrasound signals generated by fragmenting meteoroids. Using a pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) approach, we model broadband acoustic signals from point sources at altitudes of 35–100 km. The presence of FS fluctuations in the stratosphere (37–45 km) and the lower thermosphere (100–120 km) modifies ray trajectories, causing multiple arrivals and prolonged signal durations at ground stations. In particular, meteoroids fragmenting at 80–100 km can produce two distinct thermospheric arrivals beyond 150 km range, while meteoroids descending to 50 km or below yield weak, long-lived arrivals within the acoustic shadow zone via antiguiding propagation and diffraction. Comparison with observed infrasound data confirms that FS-layered inhomogeneities can account for multi-arrival “N-waves,” broadening potential interpretations of meteoroid signals. The results also apply to other atmospheric-entry objects, such as sample return capsules, emphasizing how FS structure impacts shock wave propagation. In conclusion, our findings advance understanding of wavefield evolution in a layered atmosphere and have broad relevance for global infrasound monitoring of diverse phenomena (e.g., re-entry capsules, rocket launches, and large-scale explosions).

Aeroacoustics↗

Searching for Exploding black holes

Abstract The observation of the final stages of the evaporation of a light black hole, which Hawking referred to as “black hole explosion”, would offer critical insights on quantum gravity and high-energy physics phenomena. Here, we explore, review, and revisit the observational features and rates expected for nearby, light, evaporating black holes, and we assess and compare the expected sensitivity of a broad range of observatories. We then focus on the search for candidate black hole explosions in archival data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope and Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, and outline possible future observational campaigns.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Pulsating aurora induced by upper atmospheric barium releases

The paper reports the apparent generation of pulsating aurora by explosive releases of barium vapor near 250 km altitude. This effect occurred only when the explosions were in the path of precipitating electrons associated with the visible aurora. Each explosive charge was a standard 1.5 kg thermite mixture of Ba and CuO with an excess of Ba metal which was vaporized and dispersed by the thermite explosion. Traces of Sr, Na, and Li were added to some of the charges, and monitoring was achieved by ground-based spectrophotometric observations. On March 28, 1976, an increase in emission at 5577 A and at 4278 A was observed in association with the first two bursts, these emissions pulsating with roughly a 10 sec period for approximately 60 to 100 sec after the burst.

Deehr, C.↗

Narrow-Band Least-Squares Infrasound Array Processing

Infrasound data from arrays can be used to detect, locate, and quantify a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources from local to remote distances. However, many array processing methods use a single broad frequency range to process the data, which can lead to signals of interest being missed due to the choice of frequency limits or simultaneous clutter sources. In this work, we introduce a new open-source Python code that processes infrasound array data in multiple sequential narrow frequency bands using the least-squares approach. We test our algorithm on a few examples of natural sources (volcanic eruptions, mass movements, and bolides) for a variety of array configurations. Our method reduces the need to choose frequency limits for processing, which may result in missed signals, and it is parallelized to decrease the computational burden. Improvements of our narrow-band least-squares algorithm over broad-band least-squares processing include the ability to distinguish between multiple simultaneous sources if distinct in their frequency content (e.g., microbarom or surf vs. volcanic eruption), the ability to track changes in frequency content of a signal through time, and a decreased need to fine-tune frequency limits for processing. We incorporate a measure of planarity of the wavefield across the array (sigma tau, στ) as well as the ability to utilize the robust least trimmed squares algorithm to improve signal processing and insight into array performance. Our implementation allows for more detailed characterization of infrasound signals recorded at arrays that can improve monitoring and enhance research capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Type II Supernova Energetics and Comparison of Light Curves to Shock-Cooling Models

During the first few days after explosion, Type II supernovae (SNe) are dominated by relatively simple physics. Theoretical predictions regarding early-time SN light curves in the ultraviolet (UV) and optical bands are thus quite robust. We present, for the first time, a sample of 57 R-band SN II light curves that are well-monitored during their rise, with greater than 5 detections during the first 10 days after discovery, and a well-constrained time of explosion to within 13 days. We show that the energy per unit mass (E/M) can be deduced to roughly a factor of five by comparing early-time optical data to the 2011 model of Rabinak Waxman, while the progenitor radius cannot be determined based on R-band data alone. We find that SN II explosion energies span a range of EM = (0.2-20) x 10(exp 51) erg/(10 M stellar mass), and have a mean energy per unit mass of E/ M = 0.85 x 10(exp 51) erg(10 stellar mass), corrected for Malmquist bias. Assuming a small spread in progenitor masses, this indicates a large intrinsic diversity in explosion energy. Moreover, E/M is positively correlated with the amount of Ni-56 produced in the explosion, as predicted by some recent models of core-collapse SNe. We further present several empirical correlations. The peak magnitude is correlated with the decline rate (Delta m(sub15), the decline rate is weakly correlated with the rise time, and the rise time is not significantly correlated with the peak magnitude. Faster declining SNe are more luminous and have longer rise times. This limits the possible power sources for such events.

supernovae: general↗

Radiocarbon ages of lacustrine deposits in volcanic sequences of the Lomas Coloradas area, Socorro Island, Mexico

Extensive eruptions of alkalic basalt from low-elevation fissures and vents on the southern flank of the dormant volcano, Cerro Evermann, accompanied the most recent phase of volcanic activity on Socorro Island, and created the Lomas Coloradas, a broad, gently sloping terrain comprising the southern part of the island. We obtained 14C ages of 4690 +/- 270 BP (5000-5700 cal BP) and 5040 +/- 460 BP (5300-6300 cal BP) from lacustrine deposits that occur within volcanic sequences of the lower Lomas Coloradas. Apparently, the sediments accumulated within a topographic depression between two scoria cones shortly after they formed. The lacrustine environment was destroyed when the cones were breached by headward erosion of adjacent stream drainages. This was followed by the eruption of a thin basaltic flow from fissures near the base of the northernmost cone. The flow moved downslope for a short distance and into the drainages that presently bound the study area on the east and west. The flow postdates development of the present drainage system and may be very recent. Our 14C data, along with historical accounts of volcanic activity over the last century, including submarine eruptions that occurred a few km west of Socorro in early 1993, underscore the high risk for explosive volcanism in this region and the need for a detailed volcanic hazards plan and seismic monitoring.

NASA Center ARC↗

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Station 6: Focused Experiments

This station, the second of four on the inside portion of the exhibit, explains focused experiments at Los Alamos. The station consists of a title monitor, main monitor, pushbuton monitor, and tabletop.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Description of the Gas Sampling and Circulation System for the LYNM PE1-A Experiment

A series of multiphysics experiments, referred to as Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) is underway at the U.S. Nevada National Security Site. The PE1 series includes detonations of three underground chemical explosions. As the name implies, there are a number of experiments investigating the signals generated by the explosion. The experiment series objectives are outlined in a report from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.1 One of the experiments is a gas migration experiment. Gas tracers were imbedded in the explosives and gas sampling boreholes were installed in the formation in the test bed. Connected to the monitoring points is a circulation system that moves gas to a central measurement location. This report does not describe the gas analysis or collection systems, but rather the circulation system that provides the gas for measurement. Here, we have combined four project documents into a single report that describes the design, build, installation, testing, and operation of the gas sampling network.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Monitoring harmful gases

Instruments are developed for monitoring presence of hydrazine and nitrogen dioxide in air. Nitrogen dioxide and hydrazine are highly toxic and explosive substances used in propellants for rocket engines. Instruments discussed are inexpensive and most useful for detecting above substances in concentrations as low as few parts per million.

Helms, W. R.↗

Geotail Measurements Compared with the Motions of High-Latitude Auroral Boundaries during Two Substorms

Geotail plasma and field measurements at -95 R(sub E) are compared with extensive ground-based, near-Earth, and geosynchronous measurements to study relationships between auroral activity and magnetotail dynamics during the expansion phases of two substorms. The studied intervals are representative of intermittent, moderate activity. The behavior of the aurora and the observed effects at Geotail for both events are harmonized by the concept of the activation of near-Earth X lines (NEXL) after substorm onsets, with subsequent discharges of one or more plasmoids down the magnetotail. The plasmoids must be viewed as three-dimensional structures which are spatially limited in the dawn-dusk direction. Also, reconnection at the NEXL must proceed at variable rates on closed magnetic field lines for significant times before beginning to reconnect lobe flux. This implies that the plasma sheet in the near-Earth magnetotail is relatively thick in comparison with an embedded current sheet and that both the NEXL and distant X line can be active simultaneously. Until reconnection at the NEXL engages lobe flux, the distant X line maintains control of the poleward auroral boundary. If the NEXL remains active after reaching the lobe, the auroral boundary can move poleward explosively. The dynamics of high-latitude aurora in the midnight region thus provides a means for monitoring these processes and indicating when significant lobe flux reconnects at the NEXL.

Maynard, N. C.↗

Assessing the Expansion of Ground-Motion Sensing Capability in Smart Cities via Internet Fiber-Optic Infrastructure

Monitoring ground motion in smart cities can improve the public safety by providing critical insights on natural and anthropogenic hazards, for example, earthquakes, landslides, explosions, infrastructure failures, and so forth. Although seismic activity is typically measured using dedicated point sensors (e.g., geophones and accelerometers), techniques such as distributed acoustic sensing have demonstrated the utility of using fiber-optic cable to detect seismic activity over comparable distances. In this article, we present the results of a study that quantifies the expansion in an area monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events by augmenting existing point sensors with the internet fiber-optic cable infrastructure. Here we begin by describing our methodology, which utilizes geospatial data on point sensors and internet optical fiber deployed in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. We extend these data to identify the area that can be monitored by (1) considering the observed seismic noise data in target locations, (2) applying the model from Wilson et al. (2021) to understand the potential coverage area gains using optical fiber sensing, and (3) optimizing the selection of fiber segments to maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs. We implement our methodology in ArcGIS to assess the additional area that can be monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events (i.e., magnitude >0.5) by utilizing internet fiber-optic cables in the 100 most populous MSAs in the United States. We find that the addition of internet fiber-based sensors in MSAs would increase the area monitored on average by over an order of magnitude from 1% to 12%, if the subset of fiber cable segments that maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs is chosen even if only 20% of all fibers are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D↗

Measurements of radioxenon activities during periods of gaseous release from an advanced gas-cooled reactor

Activities of radioxenon isotopes are reported from an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR) during periods of gaseous release. Xenon isotopes are relevant to the monitoring regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). These releases may affect detections from the International Monitoring System (IMS) by influencing the radioxenon background. Time series activity plots have been produced from both in-core monitoring and direct measurement at the point of release using a stack monitor system. Ratio plots using both data sets have been produced with results compared with a commonly chosen nuclear explosion “discrimination line.” The reported results improve the understanding of radionuclide emissions from civil nuclear power plants. This work is being performed as part of the Xenon Environmental Nuclide Analysis at Hartlepool (XENAH) collaboration between the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE, UK), EDF Energy (UK), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL, USA), and the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Isolating the Source Region of Infrasound Travel Time Variability Using Acoustic Sensors on High-Altitude Balloons

High-altitude balloons carrying infrasound sensor payloads can be leveraged toward monitoring efforts to provide some advantages over other sensing modalities. On 10 July 2020, three sets of controlled surface explosions generated infrasound waves detected by a high-altitude floating sensor. One of the signal arrivals, detected when the balloon was in the acoustic shadow zone, could not be predicted via propagation modeling using a model atmosphere. Considering that the balloon’s horizontal motion showed direct evidence of gravity waves, we examined their role in infrasound propagation. Implementation of gravity wave perturbations to the wind field explained the signal detection and aided in correctly predicting infrasound travel times. Our results show that the impact of gravity waves is negligible below 20 km altitude; however, their effect is important above that height. The results presented here demonstrate the utility of balloon-borne acoustic sensing toward constraining the source region of variability, as well as the relevance of complexities surrounding infrasound wave propagation at short ranges for elevated sensing platforms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗