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DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Resilience Planning in Distribution System Planning

Electric utilities, regulators, and stakeholders face increasing risks of severe storms, freezes, floods, and heat waves damaging grid infrastructure and causing power outages—and increasing risks of utility equipment igniting wildfires. At the same time, customer electricity rates have risen substantially in recent years, due in part to replacing aging infrastructure and improving resilience to natural hazards and physical threats. To address these challenges, utilities are beginning to move beyond traditional, siloed planning processes to balance resilience with other fundamental grid objectives such as affordability, reliability, safety, and serving new loads. This study presents a framework for states and utilities that want to advance integration of resilience and distribution planning processes to improve planning efficiency, better prioritize cost-effective grid expenditures, and balance planning objectives. The framework includes 7 key integration points between these planning processes: -Strategy process -Data -Threat assessments -Solution identification and prioritization -Optimization opportunities -Consideration of other grid needs -Metrics Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reviewed utility distribution system plans and interviewed subject matter experts to identify emerging practices for each of the 7 integration points. This report presents these practices, which can be used as a guide toward more holistic planning and cohesive investment strategies. It also includes 3 case studies to provide practical examples of how utilities apply such integrated planning processes: two pole hardening programs and one microgrid planning effort. The report concludes by identifying opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Conference Support, 32nd Western Photosynthesis Conference 2023

This DOE-BES award provided conference support for the 32nd Western Photosynthesis Conference (WPC2023), held January 5–8, 2023 at the Bodega Bay Marine Laboratory in Bodega Bay, California. The Western Photosynthesis Conference is one of three regional photosynthesis meetings held annually in the United States and serves as a primary venue for early-career scientists—graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and undergraduates—to present research and build professional networks alongside established investigators in the field. Photosynthesis research is central to the DOE Office of Science's Basic Energy Sciences mission, underpinning fundamental understanding of solar energy conversion, biofuels, and the biological transformation of light into chemical energy. DOE-BES funds were used, as proposed, to support registration and housing costs for 20 early-career participants (9 postdoctoral researchers, 9 graduate students, and 2 undergraduates) and to help defray travel costs for two junior invited speakers based outside California, for a total DOE-BES expenditure of $10,060. The meeting was executed as planned, with no significant deviations from the approved program, budget, or schedule. WPC2023 drew 76 registrants across six scientific topic areas, featured 8 of 9 invited/keynote speakers, and provided extensive opportunities for early-career scientists to present talks and posters, compete for recognition awards, and network with senior researchers in the field.

conference↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Efficiency 2-Bladed Utility Wind Turbine Enhanced by CoFlow Jet Active Flow Control

The aerodynamic performance and power output of a high efficiency Co-Flow Jet (CFJ) 2-bladed Wind Turbine is studied in this paper. CFJ is a Zero-Net-Mass-Flux (ZNMF) active flow control method that dramatically increases airfoil lift coefficient and suppresses flow separation at a low energy expenditure. The 3D Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with one-equation Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model are solved to simulate the 3D flows of the wind turbines. The CFJ-Wind Turbine in this paper is modified from the NREL 3-bladed 3.4 MW reference wind turbine with the same RPM, blade length, distribution of chord, twist, and bending. The CFJ 2-bladed wind turbine utilizes the CFJ-NACA 64 series airfoils at most of the blade span from 31.88\% to the tip. The CFJ injection and suction slots are implemented along the full blade span to enhance the effectiveness and power output. The study shows that the 2-bladed CFJ turbine significantly increases power output compared with the 3-bladed baseline turbine at all wind speeds by 15.8\% at the wind speed of 9.8 m/s and by 25.9\% at 4 m/s respectively. The efficiency enhancement is substantially more at the low wind speed than at high wind speed. This would be very beneficial to increase the annual power output or capacity factor as wind turbines work at the speeds lower than the rated speed for most of the time. The results show that the flow field around the blade surface presents a significant enhanced suction peak near the blade leading edge, which results in a very high tangential force and thus increased wind turbine net power coefficient. Consistent with the previous study for the small NREL Phase VI research wind turbine, this paper demonstrates that CFJ 2-bladed wind turbine is an effective technology to extract more power from the wind at all speeds. This study is just an initial effort to demonstrate the advantage of the CFJ blade with no design optimization. It is believed that there is more potential to further enhance the efficiency improvement.

active flow control↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low-Income Energy Affordability Data - LEAD Tool - 2018 Update

The Low-Income Energy Affordability Data (LEAD) Tool was created by the Better Building's Clean Energy for Low Income Communities Accelerator (CELICA) to help state and local partners understand housing and energy characteristics for the low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities they serve. The LEAD Tool provides estimated LMI household energy data based on income, energy expenditures, fuel type, housing type, and geography, which stakeholders can use to make data-driven decisions when planning for their energy goals. From the LEAD Tool website, users can also create and download customized heat-maps and charts for various geographies, housing, and energy characteristics. Datasets are available for 50 states plus Puerto Rico and Washington D.C., along with their cities, counties, and census tracts. The file below, "1. Description of Files," provides a list of all files included in this dataset. A description of the abbreviations and units used in the LEAD Tool data can be found in the file below titled "2. Data Dictionary 2018". The Low-Income Energy Affordability Data comes primarily from the 2018 U.S. Census American Community Survey 5-Year Public Use Microdata Samples and is calibrated to 2018 U.S. Energy Information Administration electric utility (Survey Form-861) and natural gas utility (Survey Form-176) data. The methodology for the LEAD Tool can viewed below (3. Methodology Document). For more information, and to access the interactive LEAD Tool platform, please visit: https://www.energy.gov/eere/slsc/low-income-energy-affordability-data-lead-tool For more information on the Better Building's Clean Energy for Low Income Communities Accelerator (CELICA), visit: https://betterbuildingsinitiative.energy.gov/accelerators/clean-energy-low-income-communities

affordability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low-Income Energy Affordability Data - LEAD Tool - 2022 Update

The Low-Income Energy Affordability Data (LEAD) Tool was created by the Better Building's Clean Energy for Low Income Communities Accelerator (CELICA) to help state and local partners understand housing and energy characteristics for the low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities they serve. The LEAD Tool provides estimated LMI household energy data based on income, energy expenditures, fuel type, housing type, and geography, which stakeholders can use to make data-driven decisions when planning for their energy goals. From the LEAD Tool website, users can also create and download customized heat-maps and charts for various geographies, housing, energy characteristics, and population demographics and educational attainment. Datasets are available for 50 states plus Puerto Rico and Washington D.C., along with their cities, counties, and census tracts, as well as tribal areas. The file below, "01. Description of Files," provides a list of all files included in this dataset. A description of the abbreviations and units used in the LEAD Tool data can be found in the file below titled "02. Data Dictionary 2022". A list of geographic regions used in the LEAD Tool can be found in files 04-11. The Low-Income Energy Affordability Data comes primarily from the 2022 U.S. Census American Community Survey 5-Year Public Use Microdata Samples and is calibrated to 2022 U.S. Energy Information Administration electric utility (Survey Form-861) and natural gas utility (Survey Form-176) data. The methodology for the LEAD Tool can viewed below (3. Methodology Document). For more information, and to access the interactive LEAD Tool platform, please visit the "10. LEAD Tool Platform" resource link below. For more information on the Better Building's Clean Energy for Low Income Communities Accelerator (CELICA), please visit the "11. CELICA Website" resource below.

AMI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Production of Algal Biofuels by Techno-Economic Optimization of Co-Product Suites

Recent techno-economic analysis (TEA) has underscored that for algal biofuels to be cost competitive with petroleum fuels, co-products are necessary to offset the cost of fuel production. The co-product suite must scale with fuel production while also maximizing value from the non-fuel precursor components. The co-product suite also depends on algal biomass composition, which is highly dynamic and depends on environmental conditions during cultivation. Intentional shifts in composition during cultivation are often associated with reduced biomass productivity, which can increase feedstock production costs for the algae-based biorefinery. The optimal algae-based biorefinery configuration is thus a function of many factors. We have found that comprehensive TEA, which requires the construction of process models with detailed mass and energy balances, along with a complete accounting of capital and operating expenditures for a commercial-scale production facility, provides invaluable insight into the viability of a proposed biorefinery configuration. This insight is reflected in improved viability for one biorefining approach that we have developed over the last 10 years, namely, the Combined Algal Processing (CAP) approach. This approach fractionates algal biomass into carbohydrate-, lipid-, and protein-rich fractions, and tailors upgrading chemistry to the composition of each fraction. In particular, transitioning from valorization of only the lipids to a co-product suite from multiple components of high-carbohydrate algal biomass can reduce the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) from more than $8/gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE) to $2.50/GGE. This paper summarizes that progress and discusses several surprising implications in this optimization approach.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Perspectives of Open-Air Processing to Enable Perovskite Solar Cell Manufacturing

We report high throughput open-air processing techniques for the scalable production of all device and barrier layers for perovskite photovoltaics (PV). This work discusses and resolves some of the most formidable barriers to module-level scaling that the perovskite community has been facing. Our advanced technoeconomic manufacturing analysis indicates that vacuum-based processes with high capital expenditures (CapEx) and low throughputs dominate the cost of production. Open-air fabrication methods offer low CapEx routes to manufacturing, but achieving reproducibility in ambient conditions with varying relative humidity has been a persistent challenge. The use of rapid processing methods with plasma curing to convert films from the solution-state enables reproducibility, moisture immunity, and the highest perovskite PV efficiency produced in open-air. These methods are readily translatable to in-line processing where layers are sequentially deposited without the need for lengthy post-annealing steps that reduce throughput and involve additional equipment. Significant progress is demonstrated in reduced manufacturing costs as perovskites contend as a commercially viable next-generation thin film PV technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for enhancing MLCommons efforts while leveraging insights from educational MLCommons earthquake benchmarks efforts

MLCommons is an effort to develop and improve the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem through benchmarks, public data sets, and research. It consists of members from start-ups, leading companies, academics, and non-profits from around the world. The goal is to make machine learning better for everyone. In order to increase participation by others, educational institutions provide valuable opportunities for engagement. In this article, we identify numerous insights obtained from different viewpoints as part of efforts to utilize high-performance computing (HPC) big data systems in existing education while developing and conducting science benchmarks for earthquake prediction. As this activity was conducted across multiple educational efforts, we project if and how it is possible to make such efforts available on a wider scale. This includes the integration of sophisticated benchmarks into courses and research activities at universities, exposing the students and researchers to topics that are otherwise typically not sufficiently covered in current course curricula as we witnessed from our practical experience across multiple organizations. As such, we have outlined the many lessons we learned throughout these efforts, culminating in the need for benchmark carpentry for scientists using advanced computational resources. The article also presents the analysis of an earthquake prediction code benchmark while focusing on the accuracy of the results and not only on the runtime; notedly, this benchmark was created as a result of our lessons learned. Energy traces were produced throughout these benchmarks, which are vital to analyzing the power expenditure within HPC environments. Additionally, one of the insights is that in the short time of the project with limited student availability, the activity was only possible by utilizing a benchmark runtime pipeline while developing and using software to generate jobs from the permutation of hyperparameters automatically. It integrates a templated job management framework for executing tasks and experiments based on hyperparameters while leveraging hybrid compute resources available at different institutions. The software is part of a collection called cloudmesh with its newly developed components, cloudmesh-ee (experiment executor) and cloudmesh-cc (compute coordinator).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decarbonization of Residential Building Energy Supply: Impact of Cogeneration System Performance on Energy, Environment, and Economics

Electrical and thermal loads of residential buildings present a unique opportunity for onsite power generation, and concomitant thermal energy generation, storage, and utilization, to decrease primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide intensity. This approach also improves resiliency and ability to address peak load burden effectively. Demand response programs and grid-interactive buildings are also essential to meet the energy needs of the 21st century while addressing climate impact. Given the significance of the scale of building energy consumption, this study investigates how cogeneration systems influence the primary energy consumption and carbon footprint in residential buildings. The impact of onsite power generation capacity, its electrical and thermal efficiency, and its cost, on total primary energy consumption, equivalent carbon dioxide emissions, operating expenditure, and, most importantly, thermal and electrical energy balance, is presented. The conditions at which a cogeneration approach loses its advantage as an energy efficient residential resource are identified as a function of electrical grid’s carbon footprint and primary energy efficiency. Compared to a heat pump heating system with a coefficient of performance (COP) of three, a 0.5 kW cogeneration system with 40% electrical efficiency is shown to lose its environmental benefit if the electrical grid’s carbon dioxide intensity falls below 0.4 kg CO 2 per kWh electricity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Distributed Wind in an Isolated System

Remote communities are increasingly adopting renewable energy, such as wind, as they transition away from diesel energy generation. It is important to understand the benefits and costs of wind energy to isolated systems so that decision-makers can optimize their choices in these communities. There are few examples of valuation of wind energy as a distributed resource and numerous differences in valuation approaches, especially in the inclusion of environmental and economic impacts. We apply a distributed wind valuation framework to calculate the benefits and costs of wind in St. Mary’s, Alaska, to the local electric cooperative and to society, finding that the project does not have a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio unless societal benefits are included, in which case the benefit-to-cost ratio is nearly double. Government funding is important to reducing the initial capital expenditures of this wind project and will likely be the case for projects with similar characteristics. Additional fuel savings benefits are potentially possible for this project through technological additions such as energy storage and advanced controls.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Performance and Total Cost of Ownership of a Fuel Cell Hybrid Mining Truck

The main objective of this work was to investigate the potential of hydrogen and fuel cells replacing diesel and internal combustion engines in the ultraclass haul trucks deployed in the mining sector. Performance, range, durability, and cost are the main criteria considered for comparing the two fuels and engine options. Fuel cell system (FCS) performance is characterized in terms of heat rejection, efficiency, and fuel consumption for a hybrid platform equivalent to a 3500 hp diesel engine operating on a representative open pit mining duty cycle. A hybrid platform was chosen because the heat rejection, with a constrained radiator frontal area, limits the maximum fuel cell-rated power by about 50% compared to that of the diesel truck. The hybrid powertrain was 81–88% more efficient than the diesel powertrain on the truck duty cycle. A liquid hydrogen storage system is required for an equal range or time between refilling, but the packaging remains a challenge. Fuel cell and battery durability were evaluated for their performance degradation and lifetime. Achieving a fuel cell lifetime comparable to the time between major overhauls for diesel trucks necessitates the oversizing of the membrane-active area, catalyst overloading, and voltage clipping. For an equal lifetime, the battery must be oversized to control its depth of discharge and charge/discharge rates. A total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis considering the initial capital expenditures, as well as the lifetime cost of fuel, operation, and maintenance, indicates that fuel cells and hydrogen can compete with diesel. A breakeven fuel cost for TCO parity is obtained if H2 is available at USD 5.79–6.85/kg vs. diesel at USD 3.25/gal and the FCS-specific cost is USD 323/kW e relative to USD 250/kW for a diesel genset. Volume manufacturing is required for FCS cost reduction. High volume is possible through the standardization, modularity, and proliferation of class 8 long-haul truck systems across different heavy-duty applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of a Compressed-Air Energy Storage System Integrated with a Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Plant

To address the rising electricity demand and greenhouse gas concentration in the environment, considerable effort is being carried out across the globe on installing and operating renewable energy sources. However, the renewable energy production is affected by diurnal and seasonal variability. To ensure that the electric grid remains reliable and resilient even for the high penetration of renewables into the grid, various types of energy storage systems are being investigated. In this paper, a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) system integrated with a natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant is investigated where air is extracted from the gas turbine compressor or injected back into the gas turbine combustor when it is optimal to do so. First-principles dynamic models of the NGCC plant and CAES are developed along with the development of an economic model. The dynamic optimization of the integrated system is undertaken in the Python/Pyomo platform for maximizing the net present value (NPV). NPV optimization is undertaken for 14 regions/cases considering year-long locational marginal price (LMP) data with a 1 h interval. Design variables such as the storage capacity and storage pressure, as well as the operating variables such as the power plant load, air injection rate, and air extraction rate, are optimized. Results show that the integrated CAES system has a higher NPV than the NGCC-only system for all 14 regions, thus indicating the potential deployment of the integrated system under the assumption of the availability of caverns in close proximity to the NGCC plant. The levelized cost of storage is found to be in the range of 136–145 $/MWh. Roundtrip efficiency is found to be between 74.6–82.5%. A sensitivity study with respect to LMP shows that the LMP profile has a significant impact on the extent of air injection/extraction while capital expenditure reduction has a negligible effect.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards Net Zero: Modeling Approach to the Right-Sized Facilities

As the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere increases, the concerns about carbon emissions are growing. Several net-zero initiatives are taking place around the globe to achieve a balance between the GHGs put into the atmosphere and those taken out. While most efforts present a sectorized approach, this paper describes the importance of integrating information across different sectors for effective modeling of carbon emissions and holistic reduction opportunity analysis. Using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) campus as a test case, this work provides a web-based tool for INL stakeholders to use when engaging in strategic planning to achieve carbon emissions reduction. This net-zero engineering support tool (NEST) uses historical data as foundational information for applying the modeling framework. Prediction of CO 2 emissions throughout project completion integrates various approaches and schedules aimed at energy conservation, fleet decarbonization, and other GHG reduction activities. Using NEST, stakeholders can visualize carbon emissions, electricity consumption, and costs for decision making when planning the pathway for reaching carbon net zero. The INL’s initiative to transition into an EV fleet was used to demonstrate the developed framework and the advantages of using NEST. It was shown that electrifying different fossil-fueled campus vehicles before 2030 with aggressive replacement schedules require high annual capital expenditure (CAPEX), which may not be available. The tool allows decision makers to test different replacement schedules and prioritize those that yield CAPEX below a certain threshold while meeting target milestones. While the demonstration focused on vehicle electrification, the developed framework lays the foundation for further quantitative analysis of other GHG reduction activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a Robust, In-Situ Surface Treatment for Pipeline Solids Deposition Mitigation in Flowing Systems

Abstract The formation/precipitation and deposition of pipeline solids, such as gas hydrates, asphaltenes, and waxes have long plagued production fields. Given the vast differences in chemistries of these solids, any current prevention or mitigation strategy, particularly for cases where multiple issues are a concern, is likely to involve an extensive assortment of undefined chemical additives that are both costly and add complexity to the system. Surface treatments (coatings), on the other hand, present a relatively new viable option for management strategies. A chemically and physically robust surface treatment with the ability to address deposition issues for multiple pipeline solids could not only decrease the operating expenditures for a field through material cost savings and obviation of downstream separation, but could also simplify produced fluids by eliminating additional chemicals from the mixture. The purpose of this study is to explore the feasibility of a particular surface treatment as part of a solids management strategy. This work utilizes an omniphobic surface treatment to probe its effects on gas hydrate, asphaltene, and wax deposition. Specifically, high pressure rocking cells are employed to study gas hydrate nucleation and deposition. A bench-scale flowloop filled with crude oil and heptane is used to quantify the deposition of crude oil and asphaltenes after a set time period. Lastly, a mechanical shear device measures the adhesion force of wax deposits on untreated/treated surfaces. The gas hydrate rocking cell tests demonstrate an increase in induction time and occasional elimination of hydrate nucleation with the surface treatment. Moreover, the same apparatus indicates that the critical shear to avoid hydrate deposition may be lowered in the presence of the surface treatment compared to untreated pristine carbon steel coupons. A custom-built asphaltene flowloop then establishes that this surface treatment is effective in dramatically reducing the deposition of the aliphatic components of a crude oil, with a moderate reduction in the asphaltene fraction. Finally, mechanical adhesion force measurements for solidified paraffin wax display trends in agreement with the asphaltene results. The surface treatment on both pristine and corroded surfaces is able to reduce the adhesion of wax deposits to values below a pristine, untreated surface.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surface Treatment Strategies for Mitigating Gas Hydrate & Asphaltene Formation, Growth, and Deposition in Flowloops

Abstract Numerous solids including gas hydrates, waxes, and asphaltenes have the potential to form in the production lines of gas and oil fields. This creates a highly non-ideal scenario as the accumulation of said species leads to flow assurance issues, especially with long-term processes like deposition. Since an ever-increasing amount of material is deposited in place at the pipe surface, production stoppage or active mitigation efforts become inevitable. The latter production issues result in increased safety risks and operational expenditures. Therefore, a cost-effective, passive deposition mitigation technology, such as a pipeline coating or surface treatment is especially appealing. The ability to address multiple pipeline flow assurance issues simultaneously without actively disrupting production would represent a dramatic step forward in this area. This study is part of a long-term ongoing effort that evaluates the performance and application of an omniphobic surface treatment for solids deposition prevention in industrially relevant systems. In particular, this specific work concentrates on the efficacy and robustness of the treatment under fully flowing conditions. The apparatuses utilized for this include two flowloops: a lab-scale, high-pressure flowloop for gas hydrate and surface treatment durability studies, and a bench-scale, atmospheric pressure loop for crude oil and asphaltene experiments. Film growth in high-pressure flowloop tests corroborated previous reports of delayed gas hydrate nucleation observed in rocking cells. Without the aid of the memory effect, treated oil-dominated experiments never experienced hydrate formation, spending upwards of a week in the hydrate stability zone (at the subcooled/fluid test conditions). Subsequent tests which utilized the memory effect then revealed that the hydrate formation rate reduced in the presence of the surface treatment compared to a bare stainless-steel surface. This testing was part of a larger set of trials conducted in the flowloop, which lasted about one year. The surface treatment durability under flowing conditions was evaluated during this time. Even after experiencing ∼4000 operating hours and 2 full pressure cycles, no evidence of delamination or damage was detected. Finally, as part of an extension to previous work, corroded surface asphaltene deposition experiments were performed in a bench-top flowloop. Treated experiments displayed an order of magnitude reduction in both total oil (all fractions of crude oil) and asphaltene fraction deposited.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Medium- and heavy-duty value of technology improvement

Improvements in vehicle technology impact the purchase price of a vehicle and its operating cost. In this study, the monetary benefit of a technology improvement includes the potential reduction in vehicle price from using cheaper or smaller components, as well as the discounted value of the fuel cost savings. As technology progresses over time, the value and benefit of improving technology varies as well. In this study, the value of improving a few selected technologies (battery energy density, electric drive efficiency, tire rolling resistance, aerodynamics, light weighting) is studied and the value of the associated cost saving is quantified. The change in saving as a function of time, powertrain selection and vehicle type is also quantified. For example, a 10% reduction in aerodynamic losses is worth $24,222 today but only $8,810 in 2030 in an electric long haul truck. The decrease in value is primarily due to expected battery cost reduction over time. The same loss reduction in a 2030 conventional long haul truck is worth $5,117 and is primarily driven by a reduction in diesel expenditure. For conventional vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to increase over time as diesel price is expected to increase over the next decades while for electric vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to decrease as battery energy density increases and cost decreases. The study focuses on medium- and heavy-duty applications where cost of driving is of paramount importance. The savings realized from each technology improvement serve as an upper limit for how much can be spent to acquire that improvement in technology.

Freyermuth, Vincent↗

DOE OSTI2025

Viability Assessment of Wind and Solar Renewable Energy Generation in Support of Nationwide Vehicle Electrification

In 2022, the U.S. transportation sector was the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, with the combination of passenger and commercial vehicles contributing 80% of these emissions. As adoption of passenger electric vehicles continues to climb, sights are being set on the electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicle (HDCV) fleets. The sustainability of these shifts relies in part on the addition of significant renewable energy generation resources to both bolster the grid in the face of increased demand, and to prevent a shift in the source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the grid, as opposed to a true net reduction. Additionally, it is necessary to quantify the variations in economic viability across the country for these technologies as it pertains to their productive capabilities. Doing so will encourage investment and ensure that the transition to electrified HDCV fleets is commercially viable, as well as sustainable. In an effort to meet these goals, multiple computational frameworks are used to locate suitable land for renewable infrastructure development, and to quantify spatiotemporal variations in the potential energy generation and financial viability of development sites across the Unites States. First, the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion tool (OR-SAGE) is used to assess the suitability of land for potential wind and solar energy development across the contiguous U.S. From there, resource data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) are used in concert with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Potential (ReV) model to calculate the variation in potential generation capacity for each resource. Additionally, the capital and operational expenditures are calculated for an example configuration of each renewable technology. These measures are then used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of potential sites. All of these results are then processed and analyzed to determine where in the U.S. solar and wind energy are most viable. This viability is based on available generation potential, consistency and stability of energy generation over time, and economic viability with respect to LCOE.

Miller, Brandon [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000300169201)↗

DOE OSTI2020

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗