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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Early-time measure in eternal inflation

In a situation like eternal inflation, where our data is replicated at infinitely-many other space-time events, it is necessary to make a prior assumption about our location to extract predictions. The principle of mediocrity entails that we live at asymptotic late times, when the occupational probabilities of vacua has settled to a near-equilibrium distribution. In this paper we further develop the idea that we instead exist during the approach to equilibrium, much earlier than the exponentially-long mixing time. In this case we are most likely to reside in vacua that are easily accessed dynamically. Using first-passage statistics, we prove that vacua that maximize their space-time volume at early times have: 1. maximal ever-hitting probability; 2. minimal mean first-passage time; and 3. minimal decay rate. These requirements are succinctly captured by an early-time measure. The idea that we live at early times is a predictive guiding principle, with many phenomenological implications. First, our vacuum should lie deep in a funneled region, akin to folding energy landscapes of proteins. Second, optimal landscape regions are characterized by relatively short-lived vacua, with lifetime of order the de Sitter Page time. For our vacuum, this lifetime is ~ 10 130 years, which is consistent with the Standard Model estimate due to Higgs metastability. Third, the measure favors vacua with small, positive vacuum energy. This can address the cosmological constant problem, provided there are sufficiently many vacua in the entire ensemble of funnels. As a concrete example, we study the Bousso-Polchinski lattice of flux vacua, and find that the early-time measure favors lattices with the fewest number of flux dimensions. This favors compactifications with a large hierarchy between the lightest modulus and all other Kähler and complex structure moduli.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic and phenotypic characterization of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Reading isolates involved in a turkey-associated foodborne outbreak

Salmonella is a global bacterial foodborne pathogen associated with a variety of contaminated food products. Poultry products are a common source of Salmonella -associated foodborne illness, and an estimated 7% of human illnesses in the United States are attributed to turkey products. From November 2017 to March 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a turkey-associated outbreak of multidrug-resistant (MDR; resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes) Salmonella enterica serovar Reading ( S . Reading) linked to 358 human infections in 42 US states and Canada. Since S . Reading was seldom linked to human illness prior to this outbreak, the current study compared genomic sequences of S . Reading isolates prior to the outbreak (pre-outbreak) to isolates identified during the outbreak period, focusing on genes that were different between the two groups but common within a group. Following whole-genome sequence analysis of five pre-outbreak and five outbreak-associated turkey/turkey product isolates of S . Reading, 37 genes located within two distinct chromosomal regions were identified only in the pre-outbreak isolates: (1) an ~5 kb region containing four protein-coding genes including uidA which encodes beta-glucuronidase, pgdA encoding peptidoglycan deacetylase, and two hypothetical proteins and (2) an ~28 kb region comprised of 32 phage-like genes and the xerC gene, which encodes tyrosine recombinase (frequently associated with phage genes). The five outbreak isolates also had a deletional event within the cirA gene, introducing a translational frame shift and premature stop codon. The cirA gene encodes a protein with dual receptor functions: a siderophore receptor for transport of dihydroxybenzoylserine as well as a colicin Ia/b receptor. Significant differences for the identified genetic variations were also detected in 75 S . Reading human isolates. Of the 41 S . Reading isolates collected before or in 2017, 81 and 90% of the isolates contained the uidA and pgdA genes, respectively, but only 24% of the isolates collected after 2017 harbored the uidA and pgdA genes. The truncation event within the cirA gene was also significantly higher in isolates collected after 2017 (74%) compared to before or in 2017 (5%). Phenotypic analysis of the S . Reading isolates for colicin and cefiderocol sensitivities (CirA) and β-methyl-D-glucuronic acid utilization (UidA and accessory proteins) supported the genomic data. Overall, a similar genome reduction pattern was generally observed in both the turkey and human isolates of S . Reading during the outbreak period, and the genetic differences were present in genes that could potentially promote pathogen dissemination due to variation in Salmonella colonization, fitness, and/or virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optical follow-up observation for GW event S190510g using Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam

Abstract A gravitational wave event, S190510g, which was classified as a binary-neutron-star coalescence at the time of preliminary alert, was detected by LIGO/Virgo collaboration on 2019 May 10. At 1.7 hours after the issue of its preliminary alert, we started a target-of-opportunity imaging observation in the Y band to search for its optical counterpart using the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) on the Subaru Telescope. The observation covers a 118.8 deg2 sky area corresponding to $11.6\%$ confidence in the localization skymap released in the preliminary alert and $1.2\%$ in the updated skymap. We divided the observed area into two fields based on the availability of HSC reference images. For the fields with the HSC reference images, we applied an image subtraction technique; for the fields without the HSC reference images, we sought individual HSC images by matching a catalog of observed objects with the PS1 catalog. The search depth is 22.28 mag in the former method and the limit of search depth is 21.3 mag in the latter method. Subsequently, we performed visual inspection and obtained 83 candidates using the former method and 50 candidates using the latter method. Since we only have the one-day photometric data, we evaluated the probability of candidates being located inside the 3D skymap by estimating their distances with photometry of associated extended objects. We found three candidates are likely located inside the 3D skymap and concluded they could be a counterpart of S190510g, while most of the 133 candidates were likely to be supernovae because the number density of candidates was consistent with the expected number of supernova detections. By comparing our observational depth with a light-curve model of such a kilonova reproducing AT2017gfo, we show that early deep observations with the Subaru/HSC can capture the rising phase of the blue component of a kilonova at the estimated distance of S190510g (∼230 Mpc).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Microseismicity and Reactivated Fault Size to Assess the Potential for Felt Events by CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

The results of monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection at the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project (IBDP) and the companion Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Sources (IL-ICCS) project—have shown that reservoir response to fluid pressure changes can vary significantly at different injection locations within the same reservoir. Predrill reservoir characterization is important to identify potentially seismogenic faults. However, interpretations of newly reprocessed 3D seismic reflection data illustrate the challenges related to their identification in a region dominated by faulting with small vertical offsets. Faults interpreted in the 3D seismic volume range from ~300 to 1200 m wide and are in the same size range as faults that could have been the source of historical events up to Mw 2.7 in central Illinois. The array of monitoring sensors that was installed for the IBDP continues to collect data, as injection operates in IL-ICCS, the second injection well. CO 2 injection rates for the IL-ICCS well are on average 1.7 times the rates injected in the IBDP well, but a significantly reduced rate of induced seismicity is observed. This article presents results of passive seismic monitoring for the duration of the project to date, integrating active and passive seismic data to develop a new interpretation of the subsurface structure at the Decatur site that explicitly identifies pathways for fluid flow into the basement leading to induced seismicity, and provides a geological explanation for the sharp reduction of induced seismicity during injection at higher rates into the second well. The use of seismic moment to estimate the length of seismogenic slip planes in the local subsurface suggests that faults large enough to produce felt seismicity are unlikely to be present at or near the Decatur site.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Thickness and Stratigraphy of Ejecta Materials at the Chang’e-4 Landing Site

The landing site of China’s Chang’e-4 (CE-4) probe is located on the mare basalts on the floor of the Von Kármán crater on the lunar far side. The Von Kármán crater is inside the ancient and highly cratered South Pole–Aitken basin, which has experienced complex emplacement sequences of both near and distant ejecta materials. These issues complicated the interpretation of the CE-4 surface in situ measurements of the visible and near-infrared spectrometer and the lunar penetrating radar (LPR) onboard Yutu-2 rover. To evaluate the sources and amounts of all principle foreign materials at the CE-4 landing site, we thoroughly examine the ejecta delivered by crater-forming events that occurred later than the formation of the mare basalts at the CE-4 landing site. We found a total of 16 craters that may have delivered ejecta thicker than 10 cm level superposed on the mare basalts at the CE-4 landing site. Crater Finsen, Von Kármán L, Von Kármán L′, and Maksutov are the top four major foreign material sources, and each of them contributed ejecta thicker than 1 m. Our surveys confirm that the ejecta from Finsen crater are the most dominant foreign materials in the uppermost few meters at the CE-4 landing site and the total impact ejecta deposited upon the mare basalts at the landing site is estimated to be thinner than 30 m. We found that the estimations from Pike’s model are the most consistent with the Yutu-2 LPR observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introduction: Neuromorphic Materials

The explosive growth in data collection and the need to process it efficiently, as well as the desire to automate increasingly complex tasks in transportation, medical care, manufacturing, security and many other fields have motivated a growing interest in neuromorphic computing. Unlike the binary, transistorbased ON/OFF logic gates and separate logic and memory functionalities employed in digital computing, neuromorphic computing is inspired by animal brains that use interconnected synapses and neurons to perform processing, storage and transmission of information at the same location, while only consuming ~20 W or less of power. Motivated by the brain’s efficiency, adaptability, self-learning and resiliency qualities, neuromorphic computing can be broadly defined as an approach to processing and storing information using hardware and algorithms inspired by models of biological neural systems. Present research in neuromorphic computing encompasses approaches that vary significantly in their degree of neuro-inspiration, from systems that only incorporate features such as asynchronous, event-driven operation or use crossbar arrays of non-volatile memory (NVM) elements to accelerate deep neural networks (DNNs), to designs that embrace the extreme parallelism, sparsity, reconfigurability, adaptability, complexity and stochasticity observed in nervous systems. The term ‘neuromorphic’ computing is often credited to Carver Mead, who in the 1980s investigated Si-based analog electronics to replicate functions of the animal retina. Earlier important advances in this field include the work of Frank Rosenblatt, who proposed the concept of the perceptron, Bernard Widrow, who used this concept to build one of the first analog neural networks, the Adaline and many other researchers (see ref. 6 for an historical perspective on neuromorphic computing). With the recent increase in the use of artificial intelligence and large language models, and rising concerns over the associated energy costs, interest in neuromorphic hardware has expanded rapidly. According to some estimates, driven largely by the drastic growth in the training use of artificial intelligence (AI) models using the current computing architectures, the energy cost of computing is projected to reach the energy supply worldwide by 2045. Furthermore, while this is not a realistic outcome, it means that, if more efficient computing technologies are not developed -- soon -- the world will soon become one where demand for energy and market constraints limit the continued increase of societal access to AI and cloud services from data centers. Data centers used for training and use of these models consume hundreds of terawatt hours of electricity, already past 4% of the US electricity demand.

Circuits↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA

Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Advanced, Radiation Resistant, Optical-based Detector Technology for Future Experiments.

The primary objective of this project has been to advance the design of high-performance electromagnetic (EM) calorimeters for future particle physics experiments, to identify and measure the timing, position and energy of electrons, positrons and gamma rays, particularly in high-luminosity environments with intense radiation and pileup conditions. To meet such challenges, the proposed research has focused on the development of ultra-compact, radiation-hard calorimeter modules, to provide excellent timing, spatial, and energy resolution. The work aligns with the DOE’s Basic Research Needs (BRN) for High Energy Physics (HEP) Instrumentation and the research team contributes actively to the Coordinating Panel on Advanced Detectors (CPAD) RDC9 calorimetry collaboration in the USA and the European Committee on Future Accelerators (ECFA) DRD-CALO calorimetry collaboration at CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics located in Geneva, Switzerland. The research builds on the RADiCAL (radiation-hard, ultra-compact) modular sampling calorimeter approach, developed by the research team, which employs dense and very bright optical materials such as LYSO:Ce scintillator plates that are interleaved with very dense tungsten plates to minimize detector size while optimizing performance. The modules are comparable in size to a human index finger, dimensionally 14 mm x 14 mm in cross section and 135 mm in length. And despite the small size, the structure is capable of providing excellent timing and energy resolution. This is facilitated through the use of specialized quartz capillaries filled with wavelength-shifting filaments, positioned at various depths along the length of a module, to collect and guide light signals to silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) which detect and convert the optical signals to electronic signals for analysis. The primary goals of this project have been: (1) Achieve a timing resolution to σ t ≤ 30 ps for high-energy electrons and photons, important for their association with specific events produced in colliding-beam experiments and for the detection of decays-in-flight of long-lived particles. The project has achieved this goal in beam tests of a single RADiCAL module at CERN, during which a timing resolution of σ t = 27 ps was measured for electrons of energy E = 150 GeV. Based upon a mathematical fit to the data measured over a broad energy range from low energy to high energy, a resolution of σ t ≤ 18 ps has been estimated for electrons of very high (TeV) energy. From these measurements and with further expected technical improvements, the timing resolution should reach σ t ≤ 10 ps, important for searches for discovery physics in upcoming and future experiments. (2) Achieve an energy resolution of σ E / E ≤ 10% / $\sqrt{E}$. The project has yet to achieve this goal, but is close to it, having measured a value of σ E / E ≤ 15.9% / $\sqrt{E}$ using a modular array. Ultimately, the resolution goal is expected to be reached by adjustments to material thicknesses within the modules, which will improve the sampling fraction to measure more precisely the shower energy for lower energy particles. The versatility of the modular RADiCAL approach enables the testing of advanced materials, photosensors and electronics, developed in collaboration with CPAD RDC and ECFA DRD-CALO groups. The structure can distinguish electrons, positrons and gamma rays from hadrons and muons and beam-induced backgrounds, making it a valuable tool in a variety of detector environments, including future circular colliders (FCC-ee, FCC-hh) proposed for the European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN), the muon-collider proposed for Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), and searches for new physics in beam-dump, fixed target and forward-physics experiments. And, while designed with particle physics applications in mind, the technologies developed in this project have the potential for application more broadly in particle and nuclear physics, materials science, and medical physics, underscoring the far-reaching potential of this line of instrumentation research and development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Results from New Tensor Borehole Optical Fiber Strainmeter Installations in Oklahoma and Utah

The time evolving strain field contains a wealth of information that can be used to interpret subsurface behavior. For example, injecting or removing fluids from reservoirs or aquifers causes deformation that can be used as a diagnostic signal in some cases, while it can interfere with geodetic interpretations in other cases. We've previously demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the strain tensor at a depth of 30m caused by injection into a reservoir at 530m. The observed strain signals were interpreted using four independent analytic and numerical methods that resulted in estimates of the poroelastic properties and geometry of the reservoir that was consistent with data from well logs. However, studies like these are only possible if these deformations can be reliably measured. Years of lab and field work has culminated in the development of a novel borehole strainmeter capable of resolving multiple components of strain using embedded optical fibers configured as Michelson interferometers. It features four horizontal gauges separated by 45° to resolve the horizontal strain tensor as well as a vertical strain gauge and a sixth null component for state-of-health monitoring. The downhole sensing package also includes an open pipe through its center for grout circulation during single-trip deployments and a fully welded stainless steel exterior for robustness and longevity. These instruments have a resolution of 2x10-13 strain that can easily measure the solid earth tides. Preliminary data are available from four strainmeters in shale at our Oklahoma site and four in compacted sand and gravel in Utah. These are deployed from 40-60m, except one of the strainmeters in Oklahoma is deployed at 500m. The data include strains from the initial grout curing, comparisons to predicted earth tide models and in-situ calibration results, barometric pressure admittances and spectral analyses as well as signals from underground injections and surface waves from teleseismic events. Preliminary analyses indicate behavior consistent with other strainmeter deployments, and comparison to data from a Gladwin strainmeter at the Oklahoma site validate the performance of the new design. Analyses from a suite of six well tests at the Oklahoma site show for the first time how the strain tensor field varies with location during well testing.

DeWolf, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint Inversion of Regional Waveform, First-Motion Polarity, and Synthetic Aperture Radar Surface Displacement for the Fourth and Sixth North Korean Declared Nuclear Explosions

Here, this study analyzed the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) fourth (DPRK4, 6 January 2016 M w 4.49) and sixth (DPRK6, 7 September 2017 M w 5.2) declared nuclear tests, employing a joint seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) inversion to improve understanding of these events and enhance moment tensor (MT) inversion capabilities. The recent efforts have focused on employing seismic waveform and InSAR geodetic deformation data separately to analyze these and the previous nuclear tests (e.g., Chiang et al., 2018; Myers et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). Building upon our previous work (Chi-Durán et al., 2021), we performed a joint regional waveform, first-motion (FM) polarity, and surface displacement inversion, which demonstrated improved source-type discrimination, a revised MT solution with reduced scalar moment uncertainty, and an independently constrained location. In this article, we build on the previous results for DPRK6 by including an analysis using a four-layered velocity model with free-surface topography to compute the near-source static deformation Green’s functions. The model consists of a 50 m basalt layer (⁠V P = 2.07 km/s, V S = 1.2 km/s⁠), a 250 m stratified volcanic deposit layer (⁠V P = 1.73 km/s, V S = 1.0 km/s⁠), a 700 m weathered granodiorite layer (⁠V P = 2.5 km/s, V S = 1.3 km/s⁠⁠), and a granodiorite half-space (⁠V P = 5.35 km/s, V S = 3.09 km/s⁠⁠). The half-space shares the velocity of the regional MDJ2 velocity model (Ford et al., 2010), which has proven effective for waveform inversion in the region. This model considers the range of reported values for various lithologies and weathering effects. Our findings show that using the layered velocity model enhances the recovery of source location and depth for both the explosions by improving fits and reducing uncertainties. The joint inversion also improves source-type discrimination and better constrains the scalar seismic moment necessary for downstream yield estimation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving coastal water level estimation by merging nadir-only satellite altimetry data into a hydrodynamic model

Providing robust real time flood warnings is of paramount importance to coastal communities. Although state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models are capable of robustly predicting Coastal Water Levels (CWL), unresolved drivers affecting level fluctuations are often not represented by the model governing equations. This work evaluates a novel method to improve the performance of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model by assimilating observations from four nadir-only satellite altimetry missions against a set of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gauge stations located across the entire U.S. East Coast. Two different types of simulations were performed – Open Loop (OL) and Data Assimilation (DA). Five different simulations were performed where four different satellite altimetry observations were assimilated individually and combined with two different scenarios – with and without considering the data quality flags. Results indicate that, despite their limited spatial coverage, merging nadir-only observations into ADCIRC from the newly launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT)’s nadir altimeter can improve the model performance at 76% of the gauge locations, whereas Sentinel-6 improves 73% of the total locations, Jason-3 74%, and SARAL 21%. Furthermore, combining observations from SWOT-nadir, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 can improve the ADCIRC performance at more than 80% of the gauge locations for 107-day simulation. Nadir-only satellite altimetry observations can be useful for improving the model performance even if flagged as “poor quality” near the coast. When the flagged data are disregarded, SWOT can improve ADCIRC at 78%, Sentinel-6 at 73%, Jason-3 at 53%, and SARAL at 21% of the gauge locations. The ability to improve the model simulations largely depends on the availability of a satellite overpass nearby. Therefore, model performance can be further enhanced if satellite observations are available during a storm surge event, stressing the importance of frequent satellite overpasses.

Aafnan Bhuiyan, Soelem↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive geoneutrino analysis with Borexino

This paper presents a comprehensive geoneutrino measurement using the Borexino detector, located at Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS) in Italy. The analysis is the result of 3262.74 days of data between December 2007 and April 2019. The paper describes improved analysis techniques and optimized data selection, which includes enlarged fiducial volume and sophisticated cosmogenic veto. The reported exposure of ( 1.29 ± 0.05 ) × 10 32 protons × year represents an increase by a factor of two over a previous Borexino analysis reported in 2015. By observing 52.6 - 8.6 + 9.4 ( stat ) - 2.1 + 2.7 ( sys ) geoneutrinos (68% interval) from U 238 and Th 232 , a geoneutrino signal of 47.0 - 7.7 + 8.4 ( stat ) - 1.9 + 2.4 ( sys ) TNU with - 17.2 + 18.3 % total precision was obtained. This result assumes the same Th/U mass ratio as found in chondritic CI meteorites but compatible results were found when contributions from U 238 and Th 232 were both fit as free parameters. Antineutrino background from reactors is fit unconstrained and found compatible with the expectations. The null-hypothesis of observing a geoneutrino signal from the mantle is excluded at a 99.0% C.L. when exploiting detailed knowledge of the local crust near the experimental site. Measured mantle signal of 21.2 - 9.0 + 9.5 ( stat ) - 0.9 + 1.1 ( sys ) TNU corresponds to the production of a radiogenic heat of 24.6 - 10.4 + 11.1 TW (68% interval) from U 238 and Th 232 in the mantle. Assuming 18% contribution of K 40 in the mantle and 8.1 - 1.4 + 1.9 TW of total radiogenic heat of the lithosphere, the Borexino estimate of the total radiogenic heat of the Earth is 38.2 - 12.7 + 13.6 TW , which corresponds to the convective Urey ratio of 0.78 - 0.28 + 0.41 . These values are compatible with different geological predictions, however there is a ~ 2.4 σ tension with those Earth models which predict the lowest concentration of heat-producing elements in the mantle. In addition, by constraining the number of expected reactor antineutrino events, the existence of a hypothetical georeactor at the center of the Earth having power greater than 2.4 TW is excluded at 95% C.L. Particular attention is given to the description of all analysis details which should be of interest for the next generation of geoneutrino measurements using liquid scintillator detectors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to a high of 40-50%. The analysis builds on hourly wholesale energy and capacity prices in different VRE scenarios for four wholesale markets in the United States for the year 2030 (CAISO, ERCOT, NYISO, and SPP). The principal question for this exploration is whether private and public electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE scenario with 40-50% wind and solar? This scoping report evaluates the impacts of changing patterns of peak system needs on the benefits of demand reductions by examining the altered value of different energy efficiency (EE) measures. Similarly, we investigate new opportunities for large energy consumers that may arise from periods with very low wholesale electricity prices. We calculate the value of new process investments (e.g., hydrogen production and other generalized electro-commodities), showcase the varying value of new product storage investments (such as reservoir extensions at a desalination plant), and estimate the benefits of increased process flexibility that uses electricity as a process-input in addition to traditional fossil fuels (e.g., district energy systems). Finally, many decentralized decision-makers and end-use customers are not directly exposed to wholesale electricity prices but instead receive price signals from their retail electricity rates. As wind and solar shares increase, we compare the economic efficiency of flat retail rates relative to more dynamic time-of-use tariffs with and without critical peak-pricing events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

National Spherical Torus eXperiment - Upgrade NSTX-U: Structural Analysis of Passive Plates Support Brackets

The objective of this analysis is to estimate and assess the stresses in the passive plates caused by a limiting plasma disruption. The objective of this calculation is also to address observed damage to mounting hardware after completion of NSTX operation. These observations initiated diagnostic efforts during the Upgrade project to monitor the severity of the disruptions that were causing the damage, and planned instrumentation to trend the behavior of the mounting hardware. The Recovery Project mission for the passive plate hardware is to appropriately reinforce the passive plates with stainless steel ribs mounted on the back of the plate to reduce their flexure and stress and reinforcements of the “biscuit” components of the bracketry to transfer loads without damage to bolts, biscuits, and bracket plates and welds. Mid-plane disruptions and quenches were manageable with NSTX vintage hardware. The Vertical Displacement Event (VDE) disruptions position the plasma closer to the passive plates and are more severe than the centered plasma. Earlier work pointed to the P1-P5 VDE as limiting. This has been confirmed by A. Brooks work in support of the load generation effort in reference. During vertical displacement large counter currents are generated in the plate as the plasma approaches it. - as would be expected from passive plates. When the plasma disrupts the currents in the plates are reversed, which also reverses the loading on the plates. This report documents the methodology and results of transient structural analysis on the plasma, passive plates support brackets. The loads induced by eddy and halo currents have been considered, and were generated using a separate electromagnetic analysis (NSTXU_1_11_2_1_CALC_051). The structural model also incorporates the effects from preload. Calculation was performed with the assumption that existing biscuits are not participating in the load bearing except the biscuits connected to jumper bolts, which are fully engaged. Results show that with the planned reinforcements, Passive plates and mounting structures satisfy static and fatigue criteria in all areas except welds, where separate analysis was performed. Both symmetric and asymmetric (with locating block) designs were analyzed, and although stresses were higher without locating block they still satisfy NSTX design criteria.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗