Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error impact analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

Keitz, J. F.↗

ILRS Analysis Activities After the Adoption of ITRF2020

"The contribution of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) to the most recent realization of the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) was the result of an analysis strategy with two major modifications compared to the operational products: a modeling for stations long-term systematic errors (biases reported in the ILRS Data Handling File) and an updated model of the target signature error (satellite Centre of Mass model). Both refined models were used as input information for the ILRS contribution to the ITRF2020 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2020). Thereafter, the ILRS Analysis Standing Committee (ASC) focused its effort on implementing the new reference frame in its operational products, define a strategy to improve the ongoing monitoring of the systematic errors, compute the ILRS contribution to the planned ITRF2020 update, and to include LARES-2 among the considered satellites for the operational products. The ILRS ASC implemented the ITRF2020/SLRF2020 into all its official operational products (TRF, Earth Orientation Parameters, predicted and combined satellite orbits) and its impact was evaluated. The operational products benefit from the continuous monitoring of the station systematic errors and the frequent updates of the Data Handling File whenever a significant change in the station systematic error is observed. In the future, a change-point detection algorithm, jointly estimating the times and the number of discontinuities, will be implemented to detect potential new discontinuities in the range bias series. The inclusion of LARES-2 among the satellites whose data are operationally analyzed will furtherly increase the robustness of the estimated parameters. Finally, the ILRS ASC activities include the benchmarking of a new analysis center (CNES) which will formally begin its own contribution in 2024."

Satellite Laser Ranging↗

Radiometric calibration analysis of SIR-B imagery

The second flight of the NASA Spaceborne Imaging Radar (SIR-B) collected nearly 8 hours of digital synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) data of the earth's surface. This paper analyzes the performance of the SAR to determine the accuracy of the relative radiometric calibration of these data. Procedures are presented for deriving accuracy estimates as well as limitations under which these estimates are valid. The impact on calibration of an RF breakdown in the primary antenna feed system cable is evaluated. An analysis of the platform stability based on the SAR echo data is also presented in conjunction with its resultant effect on the calibration accuracy. Finally, numerical error bounds are derived with guidelines on their utilization.

Wall, Stephen D.↗

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.

decadal climate↗

San Francisco Bar Pilot Fatigue Study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent of fatigue among San Francisco Bar Pilots (Maritime Pilots) and its potential impact on safety, and to make recommendations concerning how the risk of fatigue could be managed. Information was gathered via a literature review, observations of Bar Pilots at work, surveys, a task analysis, and an analysis of dispatch records.The work of San Francisco Bar Pilots involves an unusual mix of activities and job demands. Their work calls for situational awareness, reasoning, communication, and perceptual abilities comparable to those required by airline pilots and air traffic controllers. Errors can have severe consequences for public safety and the environment, as well as significant financial costs. Fatigue is increasingly recognized as a hazard that must be managed by the transportation industry. The reduced sleep quality and quantity experienced by personnel who work at night, in conjunction with human circadian rhythms can lead to an operationally significant level of cognitive impairment. The cognitive impact of fatigue includes functions that are critical to safe maritime piloting, such as vigilance, judgment, reaction time and communication. The surveys distributed to Bar Pilots did not uncover evidence of widespread fatigue. The survey results also suggested that fatigue was not a major concern of Bar Pilots. Bar Pilots had overall low scores on the subjective fatigue measures used in the survey, and generally assessed the safety risk due to fatigue as low. Compared to air traffic controllers, Bar Pilots gave significantly lower ratings on questions concerning the prevalence and impact of fatigue. The application of fatigue modeling software to Bar Pilot dispatch records identified that in most cases, pilot's cognitive effectiveness was predicted to be acceptable during their duty periods. However, these results could not be verified with objective data.The study identified a number of fatigue issues that deserve attention. These include Bar Pilot work periods that frequently infringe on the circadian low, consecutive work periods without a significant break, consecutive periods of night work, unpredictable work schedules, start time variability, the potential for sleep inertia, and the number of pilots on the board at any given time.

fatigue↗

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Using NASA GEOS: Estimation of Air-Sea Interface State Variables

Air-sea interface variables, such as the skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are essential for atmosphere-ocean coupling. In the NASA GMAO Data Assimilation System (DAS), the skin SST and 3-D atmospheric state are jointly estimated [1]. This presentation is focused on the prior or background error covariance that is used in this analysis. The GEOS DAS uses an ensemble-variational assimilation strategy. In that, specification of a climatological background (CB) error covariance for SST relies on the NOAA's OI SST, with estimates of standard deviation and correlation length scales based on weekly analyses of the bulk SST at 1 degree resolution. However, present analysis system is striving to resolve SST diurnal variability with six hourly analyses and assimilates a vast number of in-situ and satellite observations. The first part of this presentation re-derives the CB error covariance using OSTIA SST analyses and illustrates the impact of this update on assimilating satellite observations. In a hybrid assimilation system the CB error covariances are appended with a flow-dependent background error covariance estimate implied by the underlying ensemble. The second part of this presentation refers to: a. treatment of the skin SST in the ensemble members, b. corresponding ensemble spread, and c. impact of these additions on the data assimilation system. [1] S. Akella, et al. (2017), doi:10.1002/qj.2988

Akella, Santha↗

Meteorological Inventory of Rain-On-Snow Events in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Satellite Detection Assessment Using Passive Microwave Data

The spatial and temporal distributions of rain-on-snow (ROS) events across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) remain poorly understood owing to their sporadic nature in time and space. This situation motivated the development of remote sensing detection algorithms. This paper uses a large meteorological dataset across the CAA to adapt an existing ROS-detection algorithm developed in a previous study by our group. Results highlight the spatial distribution and evolution of ROS occurrences reported since 1985 at 14 weather stations across the CAA. Results show that >600 ROS events were inventoried since 1985, for which >70% were classified as pure rain (liquid form) and 30% as mixed precipitation (solid/liquid). Of the pure rain events, 75% occurred during spring, 14% during fall, 8% during summer and <1% during winter. Such events can have significant impacts on ungulate grazing conditions through the creation of ice layers, causing serious problems for caribou calf survival, especially during the migration period. This paper introduces an adaptation for larger scale Arctic application of a detection algorithm (sensitivity analysis on the detection threshold) with an error of ~5%. The validation, however, remains limited due to a short study period and limited number of sites.

Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA)↗

Assessment and Verification of SLS Block 1-B Exploration Upper Stage State and Stage Disposal Performance

One of the SLS Navigation System's key performance requirements is a constraint on the payload system's delta-v allocation to correct for insertion errors due to vehicle state uncertainty at payload separation. The SLS navigation team has developed a Delta-Delta-V analysis approach to assess the effect on trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) design needed to correct for navigation errors. This approach differs from traditional covariance analysis based methods and makes no assumptions with regard to the propagation of the state dynamics. This allows for consideration of non-linearity in the propagation of state uncertainties. The Delta-Delta-V analysis approach re-optimizes perturbed SLS mission trajectories by varying key mission states in accordance with an assumed state error. The state error is developed from detailed vehicle 6-DOF Monte Carlo analysis or generated using covariance analysis. These perturbed trajectories are compared to a nominal trajectory to determine necessary TCM design. To implement this analysis approach, a tool set was developed which combines the functionality of a 3-DOF trajectory optimization tool, Copernicus, and a detailed 6-DOF vehicle simulation tool, Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C (MAVERIC). In addition to delta-v allocation constraints on SLS navigation performance, SLS mission requirement dictate successful upper stage disposal. Due to engine and propellant constraints, the SLS Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) must dispose into heliocentric space by means of a lunar fly-by maneuver. As with payload delta-v allocation, upper stage disposal maneuvers must place the EUS on a trajectory that maximizes the probability of achieving a heliocentric orbit post Lunar fly-by considering all sources of vehicle state uncertainty prior to the maneuver. To ensure disposal, the SLS navigation team has developed an analysis approach to derive optimal disposal guidance targets. This approach maximizes the state error covariance prior to the maneuver to develop and re-optimize a nominal disposal maneuver (DM) target that, if achieved, would maximize the potential for successful upper stage disposal. For EUS disposal analysis, a set of two tools was developed. The first considers only the nominal pre-disposal maneuver state, vehicle constraints, and an a priori estimate of the state error covariance. In the analysis, the optimal nominal disposal target is determined. This is performed by re-formulating the trajectory optimization to consider constraints on the eigenvectors of the error ellipse applied to the nominal trajectory. A bisection search methodology is implemented in the tool to refine these dispersions resulting in the maximum dispersion feasible for successful disposal via lunar fly-by. Success is defined based on the probability that the vehicle will not impact the lunar surface and will achieve a characteristic energy (C3) relative to the Earth such that it is no longer in the Earth-Moon system. The second tool propagates post-disposal maneuver states to determine the success of disposal for provided trajectory achieved states. This is performed using the optimized nominal target within the 6-DOF vehicle simulation. This paper will discuss the application of the Delta-Delta-V analysis approach for performance evaluation as well as trajectory re-optimization so as to demonstrate the system's capability in meeting performance constraints. Additionally, further discussion of the implementation of assessing disposal analysis will be provided.

Patrick, Sean↗

Ballistic intercept missions to Comet Encke

The optimum ballistic intercept of a spacecraft with the comet Encke is determined. The following factors are considered in the analysis: energy requirements, encounter conditions, targeting error, comet activity, spacecraft engineering requirements and restraints, communications, and scientific return of the mission. A baseline model is formulated which includes the basic elements necessary to estimate the scientific return for the different missions considered. Tradeoffs which have major impact on the cost and/or scientific return of a ballistic mission to comet Encke are identified and discussed. Recommendations are included.

Mumma, M.↗

Terminal - Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSafe)

The Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (TSAFE) has been previously tested as a conflict detection and resolution tool in the en-route phase of flight. Fast time simulations of a terminal version of this tool called Terminal TSAFE (T-TSAFE) have shown promise over the current conflict detection tools. It has shown to have fewer false alerts (as low as 2 per hour) and better prediction to conflict time than Conflict Alert. The tool will be tested in the simulated terminal area of Los Angeles International Airport, in a Human-in-the-loop experiment to identify controller procedures and information requirements. The simulation will include comparisons of T-TSAFE with NASA's version of Conflict Alert. Also, some other variables such as altitude entry by the controller, which improve T-TSAFE's predictions for conflict detection, will be tested. T-TSAFE integrates features of current conflict detection tools such as Automated Terminal Proximity Alert used to alleviate compression errors in the final approach phase. Based on fast-time simulation analysis, the anticipated benefits of T-TSAFE over Conflict Alert include reduced false/missed alerts and increased time to predicted loss of separation. Other metrics that will be used to evaluate the tool's impact on the controller include controller intervention, workload, and situation awareness.

Verma, Savita Arora↗

Impact of Bias in the Marine Air Temperature Observation Set on Atmospheric Reanalyses

Marine air temperature observations are collected by volunteer observing ships carrying automatic meteorological sensor packages. Close proximity of the package mount to a dark colored ship's deck is known to introduce a warm bias on sunny afternoons in summer under low wind conditions. This observation set is used as an influential constraint in the MERRA-2 reanalysis, as well as several other reanalyses, in the poorly sampled surface marine boundary layer. Here we explore the consequences of bias in the marine air temperature observation set during the 36 year period 1980-2015. Marine air temperature observations have mainly been collected along major shipping routes, with the densest coverage in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In the first part of this presentation we review the historical observation coverage and compare air temperature and contemporaneous SST measurements to identify systematic differences. The comparison suggests the presence of diurnal bias in the air temperature observations peaking in subtropics and midlatitudes latitudes in mid-afternoon local time. In the second part we explore the impact of the marine air temperature observations on MERRA-2 through analysis of the terms in the temperature forecast tendency equation, the equation which describes the contributions to changes in temperature during each analysis cycle. Examination of the temperature forecast tendency equation allows us to separate systematic errors due to such processes and radiation, mixing, and advection and allows us to identify the major source of systematic forecast tendencies. The results show that the marine air temperature measurements introduce an error that can reach 0.4K/dy which also peaks in local afternoon at subtropical latitudes. This bias varies with season and has gradually reduced from the beginning of the MERRA-2 reanalysis in 1980. In the final part we conduct numerical experiments with a version of the MERRA-2 analysis system, comparing experiments when the marine air temperature observations are included or withheld from the analysis system.

Akella, Santharam↗

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Evaluating the Impact of Geostationary Sounders in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder (GXS) on its central satellite, joining international counterparts. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a lone sounder in a GEO orbit and as part of a global ring of such instruments. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, the ability of GXS and the global ring to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was assessed both globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Over CONUS, the FSOI metric showed the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica L. McGrath-Spangler↗

Evaluating the Impact of Geostationary Sounders in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder (GXS) on its central satellite, joining international counterparts. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a lone sounder in a GEO orbit and as part of a global ring of such instruments. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, the ability of GXS and the global ring to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was assessed both globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Over CONUS, the FSOI metric showed the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Examining Dense Data Usage near the Regions with Severe Storms in All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation and Impacts on GEOS Hurricane Analyses

Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers assimilate radiances affected by clouds and precipitation from microwave sensors, with the expectation that these data can provide critical constraints on meteorological parameters in dynamically sensitive regions to make significant impacts on forecast accuracy for precipitation. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center assimilates all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave sensors such as all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), which includes the GEOS atmospheric model, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) atmospheric analysis system, and the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS). So far, most of NWP centers apply same large data thinning distances, that are used in clear-sky radiance data to avoid correlated observation errors, to all-sky microwave radiance data. For example, NASA GMAO is applying 145 km thinning distances for most of satellite radiance data including microwave radiance data in which all-sky approach is implemented. Even with these coarse observation data usage in all-sky assimilation approach, noticeable positive impacts from all-sky microwave data on hurricane track forecasts were identified in GEOS-5 system. The motivation of this study is based on the dynamic thinning distance method developed in our all-sky framework to use of denser data in cloudy and precipitating regions due to relatively small spatial correlations of observation errors. To investigate the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance on hurricane forecasts, several hurricane cases selected between 2016-2017 are examined. The dynamic thinning distance method is utilized in our all-sky approach to understand the sources and mechanisms to explain the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave radiance sensors like Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU-A), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and GMI on GEOS-5 analyses and forecasts of various hurricanes.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗

SPACEFLIGHT ASSOCIATED NEURO-OCULAR SYNDROME (SANS): 2023 CLINICAL UPDATE

INTRODUCTION Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS) is a condition unique to long-duration spaceflight, with an unclear pathogenesis and pathophysiology, and no perfect terrestrial analog. Approximately 66% of long duration spaceflight (LDSF) astronauts present with the earliest indication of SANS, which is defined as development of any of the following signs in at least one eye during or immediately following spaceflight: 1) optic disc edema (ODE; represented by an increase of ≥ 20 microns in peripapillary total retinal thickness [ΔTRT]); 2) chorioretinal folds; 3) globe flattening; and 4) excessive shift in refractive error (≥ +0.75D). Each of these signs presents potential risk to a crewmember’s vision and mission effectiveness, with ODE posing the highest risk overall. It is not yet known what severity and/or duration of these signs might lead to acute or permanent impacts to ocular anatomy or visual performance. Brain anatomical changes also occur during long-duration spaceflight and are being monitored in the astronaut population; however, these changes have not yet been associated with functional decrements or with SANS. An update will be provided on the latest SANS clinical analyses, diagnostics, and program initiatives. METHODS Data were obtained from clinical records and SANS subject matter experts (SMEs) to compile a SANS clinical update. Areas of interest include: 1) prevalence of SANS signs, 2) defining clinical thresholds for SANS, and 3) an overview of current and planned SANS clinical efforts. DISCUSSION SANS Sign Prevalence: Analysis at the time of this abstract submission indicates that the approximate prevalence of primary SANS findings in USOS LDSF crewmembers is: 64% for ODE (≥ 20-micron ΔTRT), 15% for chorioretinal folds, 26% for globe flattening, and 14% for hyperopic shifts in refractive error (≥ +0.75D). Clinical Thresholds:  The Earliest Indication of SANS was presented publicly for the first time at the 2020 NASA Human Research Program Investigators’ Workshop. See definition in Introduction section (above).  Clinically Concerning SANS – Development of any of the following signs during or immediately following spaceflight: 1) ODE (≥ 55-micron ΔTRT* and/or Frisèn grade ≥1*), 2) sharp chorioretinal folds in the vicinity of the macula, or 3) moderate globe flattening.  Pathological SANS with an Acute Functional Impact – Development of any of the following signs/symptoms during or immediately following spaceflight: 1) visual field loss (e.g., enlarged blindspot), 2) distorted centralvision, or 3) shift in refractive error beyond power of available correction (e.g., “space anticipation glasses”).  Pathological SANS affecting Long-Term Health – Development of any of the following signs/symptoms during or following spaceflight: 1) permanent visual field loss, 2) reduced retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, 3) permanently distorted central vision, 4) atrophy of retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) or photoreceptors, or 5) choroidal neovascularization. Current & Planned Clinical Efforts (accurate at time of abstract submission): All SANS diagnostic hardware are performing nominally onboard the International Space Station: vision screening, fundoscope, optical coherence tomography (OCT) device, ultrasound, and tonometer. The Goggle-Based Visual Field (GBVF) device is nearing completion of its clinical validation study at Ohio State University and is planned for parabolic flight testing in fiscal year 2023 (FY23); pending positive results, this sequence may pave the way towards an ISS technology demonstration in FY24.

T J Brunstetter↗

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗