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DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Power Systems Operation with Newly Electrified and Flexible Loads

The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is a multi-year study designed to analyze the impacts of widespread electrification in the U.S. energy system. In this webinar we present the detailed power systems operational analysis from the final report in the EFS series. For this analysis, we simulate multiple 2050 power systems for the conterminous United States to assess how variations in the magnitude and shape of electricity demand driven by electrification, and the extent of load participation to more-actively provide grid services, might impact the hourly operation, operational costs, and emissions of various power systems in 2050. The impacts of electrification and demand flexibility are overlayed across systems with significantly greater penetrations of variable renewable energy than today. Overall, we find that the high electrification scenarios envisioned in the EFS with significant VRE penetration (66% of annual national generation) can be operated to meet future increased levels of electrified demand. We also find that demand-side flexibility can enhance operational efficiency and reduce overall annual production costs by $5-$10 billion. The complementary relationship between flexible electric vehicle charging loads and solar generation is particularly pronounced, but in the absence of demand-side flexibility electrification can lead to increased wind and solar curtailment. By helping to reduce renewable curtailment, flexibility can also reduce power sector CO2 emissions. The analysis highlights the value of increased integration and coordination of demand- and supply-side resources in future electric system planning and operations—particularly under high electrification futures.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Energy, Utility Scale: 30 Proven Strategies to Increase VPP Enrollment [Slides]

After decades of low or declining growth in electricity demand, the U.S. now faces a significant near-term need for new generation capacity and transmission and distribution infrastructure. Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) can meet a large portion of the gap between electricity supply and growing demand, but only if deployed at an increased scale. This study provides 30 proven strategies for scaling VPPs through increased enrollment based on in-depth interviews with utilities and VPP solutions providers that have achieved considerable scale or rapid growth in program deployment. The study includes specific actions for regulators, utilities, and VPP solutions providers to increase VPP enrollment and deliver important customer and utility benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seasonality and trade in hydro-heavy electricity markets: A case study with the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

Hydroelectric power plants account for 25% of West Africa's total installed capacity. In general, electricity generated by these plants is seasonal and intra-annual fluctuation has a considerable impact on electricity supply and cross-border electricity trade. We soft-linked a global hydrologic model to a multi-region capacity expansion and planning model for the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) to examine the effects of seasonality in hydropower electricity generation on electricity trade, as well as the economic benefits of unconstrained cross-border electricity trade. We found that transitioning from rainy to dry season decreases hydroelectricity generation by an average of 40% in a normal year across the region. Between 2018 and 2050, satisfying the region's electricity demand will require significant capital investment; nevertheless, extending from current bilateral electricity trade agreements to a fully competitive cross-border electricity trade will result in net annual savings of $3 billion in 2015 USD. To achieve year-round energy security, countries should plan ahead and diversify their energy sources to ensure that supply reliability can be maintained in the case of lower supply during the dry season.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part I: Sector Overviews

“Sector coupling” is a concept that addresses potential designs for the future power industry. Traditionally, the energy sectors, i.e., electricity supply, transport, and industry, have functioned largely independently from one another. Thus, the concept of sector coupling means that the electricity sector would become the central pillar of the energy system, supplying the other sectors – transportation and industry – with energy in various ways, a scheme described by the term “Power-to-X”. This report delves into the ambitious goal set by the United States to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with a pivotal milestone of making half of all passenger vehicles sold in America zero-emission by 2030. Central to achieving this objective is the electrification of the transportation sector, resulting in complex interactions between this sector and the electric industry. As electric vehicles become more prevalent, a shift in the dependency on electricity for vehicle charging emerges, alongside a reduction in the electricity demand associated with maintaining the fossil fuel supply chain. Both the electricity and fossil fuel have been identified as critical infrastructure sectors, the transportation sector's historical reliance on fossil fuels, and the mature supply chain supporting them are explored. This study emphasizes the existing sectoral coupling between the electric energy and transportation sectors, extending beyond vehicle charging to essential operations at refineries, pipeline facilities, storage, and fuel extraction. Recognizing the critical dependency of fossil fuel supply chain operations on the electric sector, this research underscores the need for a comprehensive view of the evolving dynamics between the transportation and electric sectors. This study has been split into two segments, Part-I provides an overview of the existing fossil fuel supply chain architecture and the electrical sector. We provide an in-depth analysis of the grid-transportation sectoral coupling, its interactions, the vulnerabilities and essential take-aways that would help us to address them and apply towards an electrified transportation sector in the future. We engaged with stakeholders to understand their expectations in enabling an electrified transportation. We accumulate the understandings from the current fossil fuel-based system in developing a risk matrix, by identifying all the threats and vulnerabilities and how would they apply to both the current and future transportation systems in Part-II of this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field Demonstration and Adoption Impacts of an Affordable Thermoelectric Heat Pump

This study presents the design, field validation, and utility impacts of an air source heat pump that uses thermoelectric (TE) technology to provide supplemental heating at outside air temperatures below 17°F. Conventional heat pumps experience reduced heating capacity and COP at low outdoor temperatures due to the temperature difference between the source and demand sides of the vapor compression cycle. Consequently, during colder months, supplemental heating such as electric resistance or natural gas furnace is often needed to provide additional warmth, which increases the overall equipment and energy costs. To address this challenge, a TE subcooler (an array of solid-state, thermoelectric modules that provides heat pumping using non-vapor compression technique) is fabricated and integrated with the vapor compression cycle of a conventional air-source heat pump. In colder ambient conditions, TE subcooler exchanges heat with the refrigerant to provide additional subcooling, thereby enhancing the capacity of the heat pump. The operation of thermoelectric-integrated heat pump was demonstrated in an occupied single-family home in Nashville, TN. The TE subcooler increased the system’s heating capacity at 15°F outdoor temperature by 25–30% and reduced electricity demand by 10%. It also met the heating load in the house without supplemental electric resistance down to 5°F outdoors, delivering the additional heat at nearly 80% greater efficiency compared to electric resistance heating. With a modest first cost increment of 10–15% over conventional single-speed heat pumps, this approach offers a promising, energy-efficient solution to accelerate residential heat pump adoption in the U.S.

KRISHNAMOORTHY, Sreenidhi [Electric Power Research↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Energy Storage Potential of Unconventional Shale Reservoirs Using Numerical Simulation of Cyclic Gas Injection

Compressed air energy storage (CAES) stores energy as compressed air in underground formations, typically salt dome caverns. When electricity demand grows, the compressed air is released through a turbine to produce electricity. CAES in the US is limited to one plant built in 1991, due in part to the inherent risk and uncertainty of developing subsurface storage reservoirs. As an alternative to CAES, we propose using some of the hundreds of thousands of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells to store energy as compressed natural gas in unconventional shale reservoirs. To store energy, produced or “sales” natural gas is injected back into the formation using excess electricity and is later produced through an expander to generate electricity. To evaluate this concept, we performed numerical simulations of cyclic natural gas injection into unconventional shale reservoirs using cmg-gem commercial reservoir modeling software. We tested short-term (diurnal) and long-term (seasonal) energy storage potential by modeling well injection and production gas flowrates as a function of bottom-hole pressure. First, we developed a conceptual model of a single fracture stage in an unconventional shale reservoir to characterize reservoir behavior during cyclic injection and production. Next, we modeled cyclic injection in the Marcellus shale gas play using published data. Results indicate that Marcellus unconventional shale reservoirs could support both short- and long-term energy storage at capacities of 100–1000 kWe per well. The results indicate that energy storage in unconventional shale gas wells may be feasible and warrants further investigation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Stochastic Charging Station Deployment Model for Electrified Taxi Fleets in Coupled Urban Transportation and Power Distribution Networks

Metropolitansworldwide are increasingly adopting electric taxis (ET) to address concerns about transportation-related emissions. However, the widespread deployment of electric taxis presents challenges in terms of increased electricity demand and changing demand profiles. This transition impacts both the urban transportation network (TN) and the electricity power distribution network (PDN), highlighting the interdependence between these two systems. Here, in this paper, we propose a two-stage stochastic programming planning model that aims to optimize both the TN and PDN, enabling efficient deployment of charging stations and grid upgrades. Our model seeks to strike a balance between meeting ET drivers' charging preferences, minimizing the costs associated with infrastructure deployment and grid expansion, and harmonizing the coordination between the TN and PDN. Additionally, we explore the potential benefits of utilizing an autonomous ET fleet to enhance overall system performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Load Forecasting for the Moroccan Electricity Sector

The Moroccan electricity sector is undergoing rapid transformation as it seeks to increase its utilization of renewable energy from its abundant domestic supply. Key to implementing variable renewable energy is understanding current electricity demand and forecasting this demand on the long, medium, and short timescales. This report leverages existing Moroccan electricity sector data to build basic load forecasts on these timescales. Taking these forecasts, the report recommends next steps in terms of additional algorithms, mathematical models, data collection, and scenarios (such as vehicle electrification or high levels of distributed generation) that should be examined for advanced load forecasts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fleet-wide Electrification Impacts Assessment for the Valley Transportation Authority

This report explores the long-term electrification opportunities for the Valley Transit Authority’s (VTA) transit bus fleet. The potential for transit bus electrification at VTA as well as the economic impacts of partial and complete electrification are explored. We use the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization model to determine the optimal charging, operation and lowest capital and operating cost solution to achieve different levels of electrification to meet their existing routes. This study finds that, relying on only depot charging, around 70% of the daily trips by VTA’s transit bus fleet can be replaced with battery electric buses (BEBs) today. The benefits and drawbacks of five methods for improving the electrification potential beyond that achievable with only depot charging are discussed including (1) increase charger power, (2) purchase of larger vehicle batteries, (3) en-route charging, (4) purchasing additional buses and swapping them to enable the existing routes/blocks1 to be met, and (5) route/block redesign. A strategy is developed to enable full fleet electrification by increasing charger power or allowing intraday charging as a proxy for the options mentioned above. This method allows us to develop an understanding of the impacts and trade-offs of full fleet electrification. Two charging strategies are examined. Immediate charging, when the bus is charged as soon as it arrives at a depot or en-route charging station, and smart charging, which uses a controller to determine the best times to charge to achieve the lowest charging cost, while maintaining the same trip schedules. Smart charging is effective at reducing the peak power consumption, which can be reduced by between 31% and 65% compared to immediate charging. This translates directly to lower electricity demand charges and lower costs for possible distribution system upgrades. The total lifetime net present value (NPV) costs for different scenarios are presented in Figure ES-1. Scenarios are separated into three sections. The first stacked bar on the left is the base case (business-as-usual) where all buses are diesel hybrids, the next four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing only immediate charging, and the last four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing smart charging. The results show that smart charging scenarios are within ±4% of the lifetime NPV cost of the diesel-hybrid only (business-as-usual) scenario. The scenarios with full fleet electrification (i.e., including intraday charging) are 4% lower cost and those with partial fleet electrification (i.e., without intraday charging) are 2%–3% higher. However, it is important to note that the intraday charging scenarios do not include any additional costs for the equipment necessary to achieve intraday charging (e.g., additional chargers, larger batteries, new route design). Additionally, it is worth noting that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit received for implementing electric buses is essential to achieving these results.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biopower: Impact of Biofuels Deployment to Replace Petroleum Liquids in Stationary Power Applications

Petroleum-based liquids are used in a portion of power generation applications in the United States, predominantly in the New England, Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Pacific-Noncontiguous regions. Power plants that burn petroleum liquids, such as distillate or residual fuel oils, are generally used for short periods to accommodate peak electricity demands. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the U.S. consumption of petroleum liquids for electricity generation at 27 million barrels in 2018, representing a cost of $2.4 billion annually. This study assesses the potential to displace all or part of the petroleum liquids in U.S. power generation with biofuels. The biofuels for this application are assumed to be derived from terrestrial feedstocks, with conversion routes of both fast pyrolysis (bio-oil) and hydrothermal liquefaction (bio-crude). Regional models were used to assess the availability and cost of three different base materials: clean wood, forest residues, and corn stover; each was evaluated in the laboratory at small or experimental scales for conversion to bio-oil or bio-crude. The estimated biofuel production quantities depend on equivalent heating versus the current heavy fuel. In this report, the availability of each type of biomass for each section of the U.S. Census division is estimated using a conservative broker price (in each case) of $ 80 per dry tonne. The results show that the petroleum-liquid power generation in each of the Census Divisions could be supplied by one or more of the feedstocks evaluated. For all regions, clean wood supplies (only) could provide ample supply. For all but two regions (Middle Atlantic and New England), forest residues alone are sufficient. Finally, for all regions but three (Middle Atlantic, New England, and South Atlantic), corn stover alone is adequate. The Minimum Fuel Selling Price (MFSP) of bio-oil and bio-crude were also estimated for each feedstock type and Census Division. This analysis showed that fast pyrolysis bio-oil projections to be lower (14% on average) than current wholesale petroleum-based heating oil prices in each of the regions, assuming 100 dry tonnes/day processing capacity. However, bio-crude predictions were significantly higher (2X) in all cases. The effect of biorefinery size was also quantified. Based on the preliminary results in this study, it is apparent the biofuels could be an economical alternative for current petroleum liquids in U.S. power generation. However, additional research is needed to determine the necessary biofuel characteristics to support existing generation equipment. It is recommended that both power generation and biofuel production stakeholders to be engaged to outline the research and testing needed to identify the technical hurdles to enable the opportunity.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Space Heating Options on Electricity Rates and Affordability

Electricity prices have increased in many regions of the U.S., with a national average of 18 cents/kWh projected for 2026, up from 16 cents/kWh in 2020. While the increases can be attributed to a number of factors, increasing electricity use in an efficient and strategic manner - with energy efficient building envelope upgrades and high performance HVAC systems - has the potential to increase revenue for utilities without significantly increasing electricity demand, and therefore could help moderate rate increases. This effect has been studied for electric vehicle charging[1] and dual-fuel heat pumps in Minnesota[2]. Leveraging a recently developed system cost methodology and FERC data on utility revenue, spending, and profits, this poster will present the direction and relative magnitude of rate impacts for efficient space heating upgrades in utility balancing areas across the contiguous U.S., using current prices and showing how the rate impacts would evolve under future grid scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Opportunities and Recommendations for the Integration of Advanced Reactors for Industrial Heat and Electricity Users

Nuclear power in the United States has been used traditionally to provide baseload electric power to the grid. Advancements in nuclear power to create smaller and safer reactors have renewed interest in nuclear as a source of both heat and electricity for a variety of applications. There is great interest in coupling nuclear reactors with industrial applications because nuclear power is a low carbon energy source that can be utilized for process heating, hydrogen generation, on-site electricity demand, and more. Idaho National Laboratory is developing guidelines to identify and assist industrial heat and electricity decarbonization by integrating with nuclear power plants (NPPs) to provide clean, abundant, and dispatchable energy. Considerations include specific industrial hazards which impact NPP siting, heat transport requirements and associated technologies, and implementation feasibility based on site-specific demand profiles. To assess integration feasibility, facility process models are developed based on real data obtained from a survey of baseline requirements and process information from industrial facilities in the United States. An assessment of safety and siting requirements is also performed to determine how nuclear industrial pairings could meet licensing requirements for NPPs. In addition, site characterization of an industrial plant is essential to determining the feasibility and suitable integration methods for each industry. Characterization includes facility distance from the nearest population center, site size, rail or water transport availability, and proximity to undeveloped land. These characteristics are important to determine reactor- or industry-side design requirements for safe, efficient operation. The siting and technical data assessment will reveal opportunities for single-use nuclear integration and co-location opportunities for industries to share benefits from a single reactor. In addition to existing facilities, this “energy-park” style cooperation could include new construction like data centers which can cost-share energy investments or provide a stable demand-and-revenue stream to the investor. Deliverables will contain a library of documents and models to guide various industries toward understanding nuclear technologies based on their users’ needs. This paper is a summary of the current project status, and provides insights on suitable pairings for specific industries and reactor technologies

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aligning Electric Vehicle Customer Charging with Grid Needs

This talk to the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) focuses on "Aligning Electric Vehicle Customer Charging with Grid Needs" to highlight the opportunities associated with managed electric vehicle charging and its value for consumers and the power system. Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing a rapid rise in popularity and adoption, and growing EV adoption offers an opportunity to increase electricity demand. With expected widespread EV adoption, supporting charging will require investments in generation, transmission, and distribution systems. Uncoordinated charging of EVs will lead to increased system peak load, possibly exceeding the maximum power that can be supported by distribution systems and generally increasing power system stress. However, vehicles are underutilized assets parked ~96% of the time: managed EV charging can satisfy mobility needs while also supporting the grid. EVs are not a burden for the grid, but a resource: The demand-side flexibility provided by managed EV charging offers significant potential benefits for the grid over multiple timescales and applications., especially for high-renewable systems. Managed charging can support power system planning and operations during normal and extreme conditions, benefitting EV owners and other electricity consumers. Managed charging is shown to consistently provide hundreds of dollars in cost savings per EV each year.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗