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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Membrane Strategies for Water Electrolysis

Hydrogen holds great promise as a clean energy resource to help the global carbon-free energy goal. Here, green hydrogen production from renewable energy-powered water electrolysis can decarbonize hard-to-abate industries and transport applications. Ion-exchange membranes are an essential component of membrane-based water electrolysis, enabling high hydrogen production efficiency through a zero-gap configuration. While perfluorosulfonic acids are the standard polymer electrolyte membrane material, research efforts for membrane alternatives have increased over the years to drive down the cost of electrolyzers and improve devices’ durability without sacrificing performance and efficiency. Here we present our perspectives on acidic, alkaline, and bipolar membranes for water electrolyzers and discuss future research directions to develop advanced membranes for green hydrogen production technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field Study of 120-volt Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Big Easy

To meet long-term goals for reducing carbon emissions and lessen the impacts of climate change, the U.S. plans to decarbonize its building stock, which includes the replacement of fossil fuel-burning end uses with energy efficient electric alternatives. As part of this strategy, the replacement of fossil fuel water heaters with heat pump water heaters (HPWH) has the potential to avoid substantial carbon emissions. An estimated 10-15 million single-family homes with fossil fuel water heaters do not have the electrical panel capacity to install a 240-volt, 30-amp HPWH. For these homes, a technology recently introduced to the market, the 120-volt plug-in HPWH, can provide energy efficient electrification of water heating without an expensive panel and wiring retrofit. This paper presents the results of an ongoing 120-volt HPWH field study conducted in 17 homes in New Orleans, LA. Key installation scenarios are profiled for retrofitting from gas-fired water heaters to 120-volt HPWHs, accounting for space, air volume, air temperature, condensate drainage, and electrical. Each HPWH had its surrounding air temperature, relative humidity, inlet and outlet water temperature, flow, and energy consumption monitored. Using these data, hot water delivery and energy efficiency performance were analyzed based on home characteristics. Hot water run outs were investigated to understand how hot water usage, inlet water temperature, and surrounding air temperature impact the HPWH’s ability to meet load. From these results, best practices for 120-volt HPWH siting, sizing, and installation were developed. In addition, results are explored further to add insight for electrification policies and product development.

heat pump water heater, 120-volt, Residential buil↗

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop

Decarbonization refers to a large-scale shift away from fossil fuel sources for energy production and toward energy sources, energy end-use practices, and land management approaches that do not result in a net increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Decarbonization in the Southeastern United States is distinguished from that of other regions in the country by its potential impact on historically underserved populations and the ways this region’s human–environmental systems are predicted to fare in a climate-altered world. In parallel, ensuring a clean energy transition requires the ability to engage entire communities that are motivated to learn, build, and encourage the spread of so-called clean tech. In contrast to other technology trends from the past century, the foundation of clean tech is a shared sense of purpose—a collective strategy to mitigate the threats of climate change and support a better environment for everyone. As seen in the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s (OSTP’s) Net-Zero Technology Action Plan (2023), decarbonization is best accelerated by simultaneous investments in Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment of technology in tandem with intentional policy and community-based solutions. The 2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop, hosted by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), aimed to bring together members of our communities and a group of regional experts to strategize about opportunities in this important area, as well as to incorporate the important pillar of System Interactions to bridge the gap between clean tech’s intent and its impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California

Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reducing the cost of home energy upgrades in the US: An industry survey

Decarbonizing the US residential building stock requires a substantial acceleration in home energy upgrades. Numerous barriers exist to accelerating adoption of efficient and electric building technologies, but foremost among these is high upfront costs. This study uses an industry survey delivered to a sample of home energy professionals to examine promising cost reduction strategies across a range of project types, including HVAC, water heating, and envelope/insulation projects. The survey included quantitative and qualitative questions to collect evidence on the estimated cost reduction potential of these strategies and their likelihood of use in the construction industry. The 167 survey respondents included contractors, energy consultants, architects, manufacturers, and others with experience in delivering energy upgrades in single-family and multifamily buildings in the US. Results show that significant cost reductions are achievable by minimizing additional infrastructure costs (such as replacing electric panels), streamlining project planning/management, and deploying innovations that simplify installation. We find that for a typical deep retrofit project, including heat pumps for space and water heating in addition to envelope upgrades, the strategies could result in a total installed cost reduction of nearly 50%, dramatically improving the customer economics of such a project. This research makes a novel contribution to the literature on strategies to reduce the costs of residential retrofits. We discuss how our study's insights on the highest-value cost reduction strategies for home energy upgrades can further accelerate their uptake in the US housing stock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California [Slides]

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector and Implications for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis

Increasing development of wind and solar generation in the power sector can create economic opportunities for the deployment of water electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. Temporal variation in the marginal cost of energy in future decarbonized grids can make it favorable for electrolyzers to dispatchably ramp hydrogen production up and down in response to low- and high-cost times. Using this strategy, low-cost hydrogen production is enabled by electrolyzers that are low-capital cost and tolerant to frequent on/off cycling. Ramping down hydrogen production to a designated turndown ratio can avoid performance degradation caused by on/off cycling by not shutting the electrolyzer completely off. This comes with a slight cost penalty which can be minimized if the turndown ratio is low (i.e., the system ramps down hydrogen production to close to zero). These results suggest that electrolyzers integrated into future power systems are likely to benefit from the ability to ramp operation up and down quickly and operate in a standby mode. This analysis forms a basis for comparative tradeoffs between electrolyzer capital cost, operating strategy, and system durability and demonstrates the importance of considering all three factors in technoeconomic analysis.

capital cost↗

DOE OSTI2020

Addressing the challenge of carbon-free energy

This century will witness a major transformation in how energy is acquired, stored, and utilized globally. The impetus for this change comes from the deep impacts that both developed and developing societies have had on our planet's environment during the past century, and the projections going forward of what will happen if we do not act transformativelywithin the next 2 decades. This paper describes the basis for a meeting held in October 2018 on the need for decarbonization in our energy landscape, and specifically the status and challenges of the science that provides the foundation for such technology. Within the realm of decarbonization in energy generation lies the science of solar energy conversion using new or improved photovoltaic materials and artificial photosynthesis for water splitting and other energy-storing reactions. The intimately related issue of renewable energy storage is being addressed with new strategies, materials, and approaches under current investigation and development. The need to improve the interactions between scientists working on these connected but separately considered challenges and on the transition of scientific achievement to practical application was also addressed, with specific efforts enumerated.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen 101: Frequently Asked Questions About Hydrogen for Decarbonization

Hydrogen is emerging across the world as a potential low-carbon energy carrier that can provide an alternative to fossil fuels. With the increasing deployment of renewable energy, the role of low-carbon power generation in hydrogen production through electrolysis is expected to increase. Hydrogen can also play a role in reducing carbon emissions in several strategic sectors such as chemicals, iron, steel, and long-haul transport like heavy-duty trucks and shipping. As a result of these possibilities, many countries have included hydrogen as a central part of their energy strategies. This growing interest has led to many questions among various stakeholders, including policymakers, planners, regulators, system operators, utilities, and investors. This fact sheet provides answers to some of the most frequently asked questions related to hydrogen production, transportation, storage, cross-sectoral utilization, and its role in power sector decarbonization.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Strategies for Laboratories Through Energy Modeling

Laboratories are often overlooked in demand flexibility research due to constraints on their operations as mission critical facilities, despite the major role they play in an organization's emissions. Laboratories consume 3-4 times more energy than a typical office building and are commonly the largest energy users on any campus. Consequently, most laboratories in the United States are significant contributors to their organization's carbon footprint if their energy needs are met through the combustion of fossil fuels. As part of the initiative to decarbonize laboratories, this report documents an analysis on specifically grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) opportunities for reducing energy costs and emissions associated with laboratory operations. The goal of this initiative was to provide a case study and guidance on how to use OpenStudio and REopt as modeling tools for GEB technologies and strategies in laboratory environments across different climate zones in the United States. The analysis found that efficiency-based GEB strategies had the most significant impact on laboratory operations, while load-shedding and load-shifting GEB strategies produced smaller results. The culmination of these approaches applied across all five climate zones generated on average: 1) 28% energy cost savings and 30% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, and 2) 4% enhanced energy cost savings under a time-of-use (TOU) pricing schedule compared to traditional pricing schemes. Grid-interactive efficiency building measures were found to produce the greatest energy savings in both electricity and natural gas, particularly in regions with high electrical loads, such as warm climates for cooling. Laboratories that had high levels of natural gas consumption, meanwhile, experienced the greatest emission reductions. The report concludes with an analysis on the opportunities for flexible loads in lab spaces and how small-scale measures in addition to opaque pricing structures for peak demand could become barriers to demand flexibility planning. The report also explores how electrifying laboratory buildings with heat pumps could reduce energy costs and GHG emissions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Grid-Renewable Strategies for Green Steel Production under Electricity Market Uncertainty

Volatility in grid spot prices is expected to rise with climate change-driven demand pressures and the intermittency of renewable generation. This volatility poses financial risks for green hydrogen-based steel production. The Direct Reduced Iron− Electric Arc Furnace (H 2 -DRI-EAF) is a promising pathway to decarbonize steel, which accounts for ∼8% of global GHG emissions. This study assesses how increased grid spot price volatility influences the optimal sizing and operation of H2-DRIEAF plants under three operational scenarios: grid-connected, fully behind-the-meter (islanded), and mixed-mode (semi-islanded). Our analysis identifies the semi-islanded configuration as the most cost-effective solution, achieving a Levelized Cost of Steel (LCOS) 10−35% lower than sourcing energy solely from the grid. Modeling also shows hydrogen storage or selective electricity purchases at high prices (>$1000/MWh) generally outperform battery storage, except under extreme volatility. Additionally, the study explores cost reduction strategies to strengthen the economic viability and sustainability of green steel production.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the Building Sector: A Human-Centered Study Focused on Small/Light Commercial Building Energy Equity

Decarbonization of the building sector is no small feat; buildings account for 40% of primary energy consumption, and fossil-fuel combustion in buildings leads to roughly 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency, electrification and smart technologies are fundamental strategies to reduce consumption and shift away from fossil-fuel use in buildings. This energy transition carries significant societal risks unless the shift is carried out with equity and justice as a top priority. Low-income, vulnerable and communities of color have higher energy burdens compared to affluent populations. Furthermore, systemic racism and historic exclusionary policies have resulted in increased risks (environmental, climatic, economic, and social) to low-income and communities of color, and underserved communities often do not have financial resources for, or access to, advanced building technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is funding research to characterize and develop solutions to the challenges of equity and justice that complicate the ability of communities to contribute to goals for decarbonization. Our project has a specific focus on small commercial buildings and the businesses that occupy them. Significantly less is known about the burdens and risks these businesses experience or the challenges they face in pursuing decarbonization, or how those are affected by income and race, in comparison to research on energy equity and justice for diverse households. The project team includes the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Arizona State University and Clark Atlanta University. Researchers are conducting semi-structured interviews with small business owners in underserved communities in Phoenix and Atlanta, followed by a survey distributed to the larger community to learn more about the equity and justice issues that communities with different racial, economic, and cultural backgrounds face. Results will help inform an actionable and replicable framework for engaging small commercial building owners/operators to catalyze the reduction of energy burdens and increase equity.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Innovative Technologies for a Low Carbon Electricity System

The electricity sector represents the centerpiece of decarbonization pathways for the state. Decrease in the cost of renewable electricity generation, combined with ample solar energy, wind and other renewable resources, presents a realistic way to achieve electricity generation that is nearly free of CO 2 emissions by mid-century. Expansion of renewable electricity supply could allow replacement of many CO 2 -emitting technologies with ones that use electricity—in transportation, buildings, and possibly industry. Key elements of the path for California’s electricity sector are: restrain electricity demand through higher efficiency, rapidly expand renewable electricity generation, develop electricity storage to complement renewable electricity, manage flexible electricity loads for a low-carbon electricity system, electrify where appropriate to reduce CO 2 emissions, and maintain reliable and resilient electricity supply. This report provides an overview of a multitude of innovative technologies in each of the above areas that have the potential to help the state meet its decarbonization goals, while lowering costs and promoting greater reliability. The information presented provides a portrait of the landscape of technology innovation that can help policymakers, state agencies, and interested parties develop strategies to meet the state’s goals and to target efforts to support and nurture technology innovation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fossil Fuel Transitions Framework: Case studies of the decision-making process for energy and economic development pathways

The Net Zero World Initiative leverages expertise across U.S. government agencies and the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) national laboratories, in partnership with other governments and philanthropies, to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. This whole-of-government approach supports countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by co-creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put just and sustainable net-zero solutions within reach. The Net Zero World Initiative enables country partners to harness the convening power and technical expertise of U.S. and international industry, think tanks, and technical institutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗