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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

LYNM-PE1 Seismic Parameters from Borehole Log, Laboratory, and Tabletop Measurements

The goal of this work is to provide a database of quality-checked seismic parameters that can be integrated with the Geologic Framework Model (GFM) for the LYNM-PE1 (Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring – Physical Experiment 1) testbed. We integrated data from geophysical borehole logs, tabletop measurements on collected core, and laboratory measurements. We reviewed for internal consistency among each measurement type, documented the caveats of measurement conditions, and integrated lithologic logs to check the validity of outlier values. The resulting consolidated parameter tables can be used as inputs for modeling and analysis codes and are designed to interface with the GFM, which is being actively developed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Twin

Real-Twin is a unified, model-agnostic scenario generation tool designed to streamline and standardize the evaluation of emerging mobility technologies. It provides an end-to-end framework that includes robust workflows, integrated tools, and comprehensive metrics to generate, calibrate, and benchmark microscopic traffic simulation scenarios across multiple platforms. Key Features of Real-Twin include: - Unified Scenario Generation: generate transferable, simulation-ready scenarios from heterogeneous data sources using a consistent workflow. - Automated Calibration Workflow: bridges simulation and real-world data, minimizing manual effort and making traffic simulation more accessible to researchers and engineers. - Model-Agnostic Compatibility: supports SUMO, VISSIM, and AIMSUN for cross-platform scenario generation and benchmarking. Enables reliable comparisons and reproducibility across different simulation tools. - Consistent Scenarios across Different Simulators: generate comparable simulation scenarios across different microscopic traffic simulators, providing users the ability to conduct benchmarking and cross-validation that are crucial for ensuring the reliability and reproducibility of simulation results. - Emerging Technology Support: includes a scenario database and pipeline for studying autonomous vehicles (AVs), with planned extensions to CAVs, EVs, and other advanced technologies.

Wang, Chieh (Ross) [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2024

Providing Experimental Infrastructure for Accelerating Advanced Reactor Demonstrations through the National Reactor Innovation Center

A suite of experimental infrastructure projects has been developed by the National Reactor Innovation Center to accelerate advanced reactor demonstrations and facilitate their development, addressing crucial gaps in data, materials characterization, and modeling. First, the Molten Salt Thermophysical Examination Capability (MSTEC) provides a specialized platform for post-irradiation characterization of molten salt reactor fuel, coolant salts, and structural materials, essential for supporting the design and operation of advanced reactors and future commercial molten salt reactor development and licensing. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) complements these efforts by leveraging advanced modeling and simulation tools to evaluate reactor performance and safety. Serving as a library of reference models, the VTB offers a database of multiphysics reactor models, facilitating rapid safety evaluations and includes continuous software quality assurance, crucial for accelerating deployment while maintaining reliability. Additionally, the Helium Component Test Facility (HeCTF) addresses the need for high-temperature helium-cooled reactor component testing. As the first-of-its-kind facility in the United States, HeCTF emulates high-temperature gas reactor conditions, reducing time and cost associated with component validation, thereby accelerating reactor development. Finally, In-cell Thermal Creep Frames provide a unique solution for obtaining thermal creep data from irradiated materials, critical for materials qualification and licensing. Developed by the National Reactor Innovation Center, these compact frames enable the examination of previously irradiated materials, overcoming traditional limitations and enhancing the understanding of mechanical properties crucial for reactor development. Collectively, these experimental infrastructure projects form a comprehensive framework aimed at expediting advanced reactor demonstrations, fostering innovation, and ensuring the viability of next-generation nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

UBW (USLCI-Brightway2) [SWR-25-169]

Life cycle inventory (LCI) data are critical for robust life cycle assessment (LCA), yet many widely used datasets such as the U.S. Life Cycle Inventory (USLCI) are not natively compatible with advanced modeling frameworks like Brightway2. This work presents an automated pipeline to transform USLCI data into a fully functional Brightway2 project. The workflow performs systematic data cleaning, resolves duplicate process and exchange identifiers, and applies allocation to multi-output processes. Technosphere and biosphere flows are harmonized through unit conversions and a bridge mapping to the biosphere3 database, with comprehensive logging of missing flows and cutoff issues. The resulting Brightway2 database is validated using matrix diagnostics to ensure consistency of the technosphere, and is benchmarked via life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods such as ReCiPe and IPCC GWP. Outputs include reproducible CSV exports of corrected processes, elementary flows, characterization factors, and LCIA results, alongside backup utilities for project sharing. This pipeline lowers barriers for integrating USLCI data into open-source LCA workflows, enabling reproducible, validated LCA inventories within the Brightway 2 framework.

Ghosh, Tapajyoti [National Laboratory of the Rocki↗
DOE OSTI2020

iPNHOT: a knowledge-based approach for identifying protein-nucleic acid interaction hot spots

The interaction between proteins and nucleic acids plays pivotal roles in various biological processes such as transcription, translation, and gene regulation. Hot spots are a small set of residues that contribute most to the binding affinity of a protein-nucleic acid interaction. Compared to the extensive studies of the hot spots on protein-protein interfaces, the hot spot residues within protein-nucleic acids interfaces remain less well-studied, in part because mutagenesis data for protein-nucleic acids interaction are not as abundant as that for protein-protein interactions. In this study, we built a new computational model, iPNHOT, to effectively predict hot spot residues on protein-nucleic acids interfaces. One training data set and an independent test set were collected from dbAMEPNI and some recent literature, respectively. To build our model, we generated 97 different sequential and structural features and used a two-step strategy to select the relevant features. The final model was built based only on 7 features using a support vector machine (SVM). The features include two unique features such as ΔSASsa 1/2 and esp3, which are newly proposed in this study. Based on the cross validation results, our model gave F1 score and AUROC as 0.725 and 0.807 on the subset collected from ProNIT, respectively, compared to 0.407 and 0.670 of mCSM-NA, a state-of-the art model to predict the thermodynamic effects of protein-nucleic acid interaction. The iPNHOT model was further tested on the independent test set, which showed that our model outperformed other methods. Here, by collecting data from a recently published database dbAMEPNI, we proposed a new model, iPNHOT, to predict hotspots on both protein-DNA and protein-RNA interfaces. The results show that our model outperforms the existing state-of-art models. Our model is available for users through a webserver: http://zhulab.ahu.edu.cn/iPNHOT/.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of Canister Loading Patterns in Dual Purpose Canisters for Criticality Suppression

This report documents work performed in support of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition, Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology, under work breakdown structure element 1.08.01.03.05, “Direct Disposal of Dual Purpose Canisters.” In particular, this report fulfills milestone M3SF-22PN010305094, “Application of AI/ML techniques to optimize DPC loading,” within work package SF-22PN01030509, “Direct Disposal of Dual Purpose Canisters - PNNL.” This report continues the process of examining the potential for using loading optimization as a disposal criticality suppression technique. This latest update to the report added: 1. A validation of the artificial neural network (ANN) reactivity prediction tool against as-loaded dual-purpose canisters from the UNF-ST&DARDS database 2. Refinement of the algorithm to incorporate an additional DPC design to improve the predictions 3. Investigation of a storage and transportation focused loading optimization algorithm. A key result from this year’s work is that the ANN performance was significantly improved by including the additional model for the NUHOMS canisters and it is apparent that fuel type specific modeling considerations should be incorporated into the ANN in future work. The GRASP-enabled adaptive multi-objective memetic algorithm with partial clustering (GAMMA-PC) algorithm was evaluated as a tool for storage and transportation oriented optimization. The GAMMA-PC optimization routine considers decay heat at loading, the time between loading and when the canister is eligible for transportation and minimizes the number of casks loaded. Future work will develop a dose minimization optimization routine.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Research Survey and Overview: Preliminary Data Platform Construction for the Nuclear Energy University Program

Since the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy initiated the Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) in 2009, there are 29 NEUP projects focusing on high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) research up to July 2022. The resultant research product, either experimental or computational, were published as final NEUP reports, journal articles and conference proceedings. However, these federally funded products have been scattered and sometimes cannot be easily accessed. To improve access to this valuable HTGR validation data and optimize the return on the significant investment made by the Department of Energy, the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) program started a survey of completed and ongoing HTGR NEUP projects to develop a public-access database specific for HTGRs applications that can be used to retrieve computational fluid dynamics and system code validation data. This effort will help guide future NEUP-funded research, define new state of the ART Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT), and promote the usage of this data in the codes validation matrices. This report provides an overview of the NEUP-funded HTGR-related research projects from Fiscal Year (FY) 2009–2021 and identifies validation knowledge gaps still existing in HTGR thermal-fluid research. A preliminary data platform has been developed for the 29 NEUP projects investigating HTGR thermal hydraulics, including their final reports as well as the available scientific publications. As an ultimate goal for this work, the ART-GCR program will create a central database at Idaho National Laboratory to identify, organize, and store these datasets generated by experimental investigations or computational models, experimental facility descriptions, and publicly-available academic products from the HTGR-related NEUP projects and provide future guidance for the storage and transmission of important project documentations for later NEUP projects as well.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Frozen Chemistry for Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs)

Understanding accident progression and the potential/conditions for fission product release from fuel is necessary to evaluate safety for any nuclear reactor system. Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) under development need such analysis to support safety evaluations. Fission product chemistry specific to MSR concepts is a critical area that introduces distinct considerations relative to the current state-of-knowledge in reactor safety, primarily developed for water-moderated nuclear reactor systems. In Light Water Reactor (LWR) systems, it is necessary to capture the chemical interaction of fission products with the reactor evironment, containment and confinement systems. The overall effects at this point are relatively well understood for the purposes of performing safety evaluations. A key insight from LWR studies is that fission product chemical behavior can be reasonably captured by modeling approaches where the chemistry is "frozen". These modeling approaches assume that radionuclide reaction and speciation can be represented by chemical classes, each with characteristic transport behavior that is invariant under a broad range of thermochemical conditions. However, radionuclides can exhibit a range of behavior in the liquid salt-melt phase of the coolant used in MSRs. Radionuclides, salt, and the metal containment surfaces (i.e. pipes) can co-exist in dynamic equilibrium that could evolve with small system mass changes. A detailed investigation to the degree the equilibrium state can dynamically evolve with changes in the conditions of the molten salt mixture has not been previously conducted. It is currently not well understood where frozen chemistry assumptions are valid. Expanding the state-of-knowledge in this regard is relevant to better assessing the range of chemical effects that should be incorporated as part of MSR safety assessments. This investigation used the Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) module of the Standardized Computer-Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code to generate simulated radionuclide inventories for the MSR Experiment (MSRE) and then modeled reactor chemical speciation using the Molten Salt Thermodynamic Database – Thermochemical (MSTDB-TC) coupled with Thermochimica. The effect of composition variation during decay of fission product inventory in a molten salt over a period of 500 days prolonged post- at multiple temperatures was studied. Mass fractions for fluorine and berilium were varied in order to probe the effects of free fluorine control. Finally, speciation of fluoride reactors were showed by comparing MSRE readionuclide inventories with a FLiBe based molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR). The results showed that fission product mass change has little effect on phase mass changes and vapor pressures for fluoride species, but differ with varying carrier and fuel salt compositions. However, iodine species were found to have a vapor pressure not only dependent on temperature, but also the free fluorine potential, releasing iodine when the free fluorine potential is equal to the iodine inventory. This observation, however, arose under free fluorine potentials that are very unlikely to be realized in typical molten salt mixtures. Despite this observation, temperature was found to be the dominant parameter that drove phase change and fission product species vapor pressure. The results indicate that the current frozen chemistry approach is adequate for MSR analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in prediction of tokamak experiments with theory-based models

The successful validation of theory-based models of transport, MHD stability, heating and current drive, with tokamak measurements over the last 20 years, has laid the foundation for a new era where these models can be routinely used in a "predict first" approach to design and predict the outcomes of experiments on tokamaks today. The capability to predict the plasma confinement and core profiles with a quantified uncertainty, based on a multi-machine, international, database of experience, will provide confidence that a proposed discharge will remain within the operational limits of the tokamak. Developing this predictive capability for the first generation of burning plasma devices, beginning with ITER, and progressing to tokamak demonstration reactors, is a critical mission of fusion energy research. Major advances have been made implementing this predict first methodology on today's tokamaks. In this work, an overview of several of these recent advances will be presented, providing the integrated modeling foundations of the experimental successes. The first steps to include boundary plasmas, and tokamak control systems, have been made. A commitment to predicting experiments as part of the planning process is needed in order to collect predictive accuracy data and evolve the models and software into a robust whole discharge pulse design simulator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unsupervised Learning Based Interaction Force Model for Nonspherical Particles in Incompressible Flows

This project provides a neural network-based interaction force model for gas-solid flows from low to intermediate Reynolds numbers and concentration, which can be linked to MFiX-DEM. We have constructed a database of the interaction force between the irregular-shaped particles using a spherical harmonic method and the fluid phase based on the particle-resolved direct numerical simulation (PR-DNS) with immersed boundary-based gas kinetic scheme. Unsupervised learning method, i.e., variational auto-encoder (VAE) has been applied to extract the primitive shape factors determining the drag force, lifting forces, and torque. The interaction force model has been trained and validated with a simple but effective multi-layer feed-forward neural network: multi-layer perceptron (MLP), which will be concatenated after the encoder of the previously trained VAE for geometry feature extraction for single, irregular particles. We have trained transpose convolutional neural networks with the PR-DNS data to predict the velocity and pressure gradient of the single particle systems and utilized them to calculate drag force of multi-particle systems. This model can provide high computational efficiency because it does not require collecting multiparticle system data from PR-DNS.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decision Tree Regression to Identify Representative Road Sections for Evaluating Performance of Connected and Automated Class 8 Tractors

Currently, connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology is being developed for Class 8 tractor trucks aimed at improved safety and fuel economy and reduced CO2 emissions. Despite extensive efforts conducted across the world, the reported efficiency gains were varied from different research groups, raising concerns about the fidelity of models, the performance of control, and the effectiveness of the experimental validation. One root cause for this variation stems from the fact that the efficiency gain obtained from the CAV is sensitive to real-world conditions, including surrounding traffic and road grade. This study presents an approach aimed at identifying representative public road sections and facilitating CAV research from this perspective. By employing the decision tree regression (DTR) method to the Fleet DNA database, the most representative road sections can be identified. High-level metrics and detailed information of the derived road sections are also illustrated and discussed, which demonstrate their representativeness and the effectiveness of the approach. Meanwhile, the capability of this approach can be easily extended by integrating specific constraints into the DTR algorithm. As an example, a specific representative road section with an aggressive road grade profile was also provided via this approach.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of prediction capability of operating space for plasma initiation in MAST-U

DYON is a plasma initiation modelling code that solves the differential equation system of the full circuit equations (plasma current, active coil currents and eddy currents in full passive structures) and 0D global energy and particle balance equations (Kim 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 126012). In order to test the capability of the full electromagnetic plasma initiation model to predict individual discharges in experiments and thus the operating space in the device, a dedicated experimental database was built in MAST-U by scanning the prefilled gas pressure p 0 and the induced loop voltage V loop . In the experimental operating space of p 0 and V loop the lower and the upper limits of p 0 are determined by the plasma breakdown failure and the plasma burn-through failure, respectively. The lower limit of V loop is determined by the plasma burn-through failure. By directly reading the control room data used in each discharge (i.e. currents in the solenoid, poloidal field coils, and toroidal field coils, p 0 , and gas puffing rate), the full electromagnetic DYON consistently predicted the failed breakdown, failed burn-through, and successful plasma initiation discharges in the experimental database, demonstrating its capability to predict the operating space for inductive plasma initiation. The Paschen curve calculated with the effective connection length in MAST-U indicates a much higher p 0 required for plasma breakdown than the experimental data, indicating that individual field line evaluation is necessary to calculate the quantitative requirements for Townsend breakdown. The demonstration in this paper shows that the full electromagnetic DYON could be a useful simulation tool to assess the feasibility of inductive plasma initiation and to optimise operating scenarios in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of Thermal Runaway Metrics of High-Nickel Oxide Cathodes by Machine Learning Models

The pursuit of higher energy density in lithium-ion batteries has made high-nickel (Ni) layered oxides leading cathode candidates for next-generation electric vehicles. However, their poor thermal stability, particularly at Ni contents ≥ 90%, increases the risk of cathode-initiated thermal runaway. Furthermore, we present a data-driven framework combining linear and nonlinear machine learning models to predict key thermal runaway descriptors from a high-throughput differential scanning calorimetry database. With cathode composition and state of charge (SOC) as input features, the ensemble model accurately predicts peak temperature, heat release, and peak heat flow. SHAP analysis identifies Ni content and SOC as the dominant factors controlling thermal runaway temperature, while SOC primarily governs heat release and peak heat flow. Al, Mg, and Mn improve thermal stability by strengthening metal–oxygen bonding and delaying structural transformation, whereas B mainly reduces heat release through surface passivation. Validation with a new cathode composition confirms accurate prediction of SOC-dependent thermal runaway behavior and critical SOC.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗