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At least 199 records · Page 11

Towards a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models and Knowledge Products: Design and Improvement

This paper presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. We envision new data, models and knowledge products that could accelerate the innovation process that is needed to achieve the goal of achieving sustainable local, regional and global food security. We identify desirable features for models, and describe some of the potential advances that we envisage for model components and their integration. We propose an implementation strategy that would link a "pre-competitive" space for model development to a "competitive space" for knowledge product development and through private-public partnerships for new data infrastructure. Specific model improvements would be based on further testing and evaluation of existing models, the development and testing of modular model components and integration, and linkages of model integration platforms to new data management and visualization tools.

Agricultural systems↗

Cross sections for the formation of Rb84m,g, Rb83, and Rb82m in Sr86(d,x) reactions up to deuteron energies of 49 MeV: Competition between α-particle and multinucleon emission processes

Cross sections of Sr86(d,x) reactions leading to the products Rb84m,g, Rb83, and Rb82m were measured by the stacked-sample activation technique up to deuteron energies of 49 MeV. Nuclear model calculations were performed using the codes talys and empire, which combine the statistical, precompound, and direct interaction components. In all cases, the empire results were much higher than the talys calculation. Fairly good agreement was obtained between measured data and the talys calculation after some optimization of the input model parameters. Insight into competition between α-particle and multinucleon emission in the Y88 compound-nucleus system was also gained.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

Low-Cost Sulfur Thermal Storage for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Industrial process heat (IPH) is one of the largest energy demands in U.S., representing about 10% of all domestic energy consumption. Fuel costs to generate this industrial process heat are generally a top three cost for industry, a major component in American manufacturing competitiveness. Roughly 60% of US IPH demand (about 6,500 TBtu annually) falls in the medium-temperature range of 100–250 °C. While concentrated solar thermal (CST) technologies can provide a cost-effective source of heat in this temperature range, solar intermittency limits their adoption in industries that operate 24/7. Element 16 Technologies, Inc. developed a low-cost sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) technology to bridge this gap by capturing excess solar heat during the day and dispatching it reliably during non-solar hours. The core innovation is the use of sulfur, an abundant, industrial waste byproduct that costs ten times less than molten salt used in commercial TES systems. The overall goal of the project was to advance the design and development of molten sulfur TES to a manufacturing-relevant prototype stage for solar industrial process heat applications, while establishing and validating a realistic pathway to commercial success. Key tasks included corrosion and mechanical durability testing to identify cost-effective materials, design investigations using physics-based simulation tools, techno-economic evaluations of system lifetime costs, and pilot-scale testing for performance verification. Corrosion testing of steel alloys under cyclic molten sulfur conditions showed that austenitic stainless steels in the 300 series performed particularly well, with no structural degradation of welds or joints. Thermal cyclic testing of pilot sulfur TES units up to 1.5 MWh quantified charge/discharge rates, heat losses, round-trip efficiency and validated the system's capability to operate effectively under intermittent charging conditions. A techno-economic model, informed by sulfur TES performance model validated using pilot test data, showed that hybrid solar+sulfur TES+NG boiler systems are economically competitive with incumbent natural gas boilers for multiple locations in the southwest US. In summary, this project established molten sulfur TES as a technically viable pathway to improve economic competitiveness of American manufacturing by lowering the cost of solar industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity

Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.

Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗

Comparative Modeling Studies of Boreal Water and Carbon Balance

The coordination of the modeling and field efforts for an Intensive Field Campaign (IFC) may resemble the chicken and egg dilemma. This session's theme advocates that early and proactive involvement by modeling teams can produce a scientific and operational benefit for the IFC and Experiment. This talk will provide some examples and suggestions originating from the NASA funded IFC's of the FIFE First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment, Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) and predominately Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Experiments. In February 1994 and prior to the final selection of the BOREAS study sites, a group of funded BOREAS investigators agreed to run their models with data for five community types representing the proposed tower flux sites. All participating models were given identical initial values and boundary conditions and driven with identical climate data. The objectives of the intercomparison exercise were: 1) compare simulation results of participating terrestrial, hydrological, and atmospheric models over selected time frames; 2) learn about model behavior and sensitivity to estimated boreal site and vegetation definitions; 3) prioritize BOREAS field data collection efforts supporting modeling studies; 4) identify individual model deficiencies as early as possible. Out of these objectives evolved some important coordination and science issues for the BOREAS Experiment that can be generalized to IFCs and long term archiving of the data. Some problems are acceptable because they are endemic to maintaining fair and open competition prior to the peer review process. Others are logistical and addressable through application of planning, management, and information sciences. This investigator has identified one source of measurement and model incompatibility that is manifest in the IFC scaling approach. Although intuitively obvious, scaling problems are already more formally defined in the Geography literature. An example of the scaling problem will be demonstrated with Vegetation/Ecosystem Mapping and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and OTTER data.

Coughlan, J.↗

Engineering a Multimission Approach to Navigation Ground Data System Operations

The Mission Design and Navigation (MDNAV) Section at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) supports many deep space and earth orbiting missions from formulation to end of mission operations. The requirements of these missions are met with a multimission approach to MDNAV ground data system (GDS) infrastructure capable of being shared and allocated in a seamless and consistent manner across missions. The MDNAV computing infrastructure consists of compute clusters, network attached storage, mission support area facilities, and desktop hardware. The multimission architecture allows these assets, and even personnel, to be leveraged effectively across the project lifecycle and across multiple missions simultaneously. It provides a more robust and capable infrastructure to each mission than might be possible if each constructed its own. It also enables a consistent interface and environment within which teams can conduct all mission analysis and navigation functions including: trajectory design; ephemeris generation; orbit determination; maneuver design; and entry, descent, and landing analysis. The savings of these efficiencies more than offset the costs of increased complexity and other challenges that had to be addressed: configuration management, scheduling conflicts, and competition for resources. This paper examines the benefits of the multimission MDNAV ground data system infrastructure, focusing on the hardware and software architecture. The result is an efficient, robust, scalable MDNAV ground data system capable of supporting more than a dozen active missions at once.

Mission Design and Navigation (MDNAV)↗

Exploring competitive metal binding and crystallization of UO 2 2+ and Cu 2+ tetrahydrofuran-2,3,4,5-tetracarboxylic acid complexes

Solvent extractions are used to separate actinide elements from fission products in nuclear waste streams and the successful isolation of specific species utilize subtle differences in metal ligand binding. Metal ligand binding is also important in crystallization of metal organic materials and herein we explore the importance of competitive binding in the tetrahydrofuran-2,3,4,5-tetracarboxylic acid (THFTCA) system. This ligand has been previously evaluated for the selective extraction of uranium from other lanthanides and actinides and in the current research, we evaluate the crystallization of uranyl-THFTCA complexes in the presence of Cu 2+ , Sr 2+ , Th 4+ , and Ce 3+ . Three major phases were formed in the crystallization experiments and characterized with single crystal X-ray diffraction, powder X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, and Raman spectroscopy. Two of the resulting phases were novel (UTHF1 ((C 4 H 10 N 2 )[UO 2 (C 8 H 8 O 9 ) 2 ]∙2H 2 O) and UTHF2 (Na[(UO 2 )(C 8 H 5 O 9 )(H 2 O)]∙ 3.5 H 2 O)), whereas the third (CuTHF1) was previously reported in the literature. Raman spectroscopy was utilized to evaluate spectral changes in the mother liquor of UTHF1, UTHF2, and CuTHF1 over time to assess the crystallization process. Further, isothermal titration calorimetry was used to determine the binding constants for UO 2 2+ and Cu 2+ to the THFTCA ligand in solution and evaluate the role of competitive metal binding in this system. The thermodynamic parameters and the crystallographic data were used to justify the formation of a weaker UO 2 2+ -THFTCA complex. Formation of a weaker UO 2 2+ -THFTCA complex supports our findings that UTHF1 only forms in homomeric systems, but suggests that the crystallization of UTHF2 and CuTHF1 is reliant on the presence of additional counter ions and ligands to change the amount of available THFTCA ligand.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Getting to the Root of Plant–Mediated Methane Emissions and Oxidation in a Thermokarst Bog

Vascular plants are important in the wetland methane cycle, but their effect on production, oxidation, and transport has high uncertainty, limiting our ability to predict emissions. In a permafrost–thaw bog in Interior Alaska, we used plant manipulation treatments, field–deployed planar optical oxygen sensors, direct measurements of methane oxidation, and microbial DNA analyses to disentangle mechanisms by which vascular vegetation affect methane emissions. Vegetation operated on top of baseline methane emissions, which varied with proximity to the thawing permafrost margin. Emissions from vegetated plots increased over the season, resulting in cumulative seasonal methane emissions that were 4.1–5.2 g m –2 season –1 greater than unvegetated plots. Mass balance calculations signify these greater emissions were due to increased methane production (3.0–3.5 g m –2 season –1 ) and decreased methane oxidation (1.1–1.6 g m –2 season –1 ). Minimal oxidation occurred along the plant–transport pathway, and oxidation was suppressed outside the plant pathway. Our data indicate suppression of methane oxidation was stimulated by root exudates fueling competition among microbes for electron acceptors. This contention is supported by the fact that methane oxidation and relative abundance of methanotrophs decreased over the season in the presence of vegetation, but methane oxidation remained steady in unvegetated treatments; oxygen was not detected around plant roots but was detected around silicone tubes mimicking aerenchyma; and oxygen injection experiments suggested that oxygen consumption was faster in the presence of vascular vegetation. In conclusion, root exudates are known to fuel methane production, and our work provides evidence they also decrease methane oxidation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The global spectrum of tree crown architecture

Abstract Trees can differ enormously in their crown architectural traits, such as the scaling relationships between tree height, crown width and stem diameter. Yet despite the importance of crown architecture in shaping the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, we lack a complete picture of what drives this incredible diversity in crown shapes. Using data from 374,888 globally distributed trees, we explore how climate, disturbance, competition, functional traits, and evolutionary history constrain the height and crown width scaling relationships of 1914 tree species. We find that variation in height–diameter scaling relationships is primarily controlled by water availability and light competition. Conversely, crown width is predominantly shaped by exposure to wind and fire, while also covarying with functional traits related to mechanical stability and photosynthesis. Additionally, we identify several plant lineages with highly distinctive stem and crown forms, such as the exceedingly slender dipterocarps of Southeast Asia, or the extremely wide crowns of legume trees in African savannas. Our study charts the global spectrum of tree crown architecture and pinpoints the processes that shape the 3D structure of woody ecosystems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

A Stochastic Framework for Estimating Load Profiles at EV Fast Charging Stations

This paper formulates a methodology for estimating the average daily load profiles of EV fast charging stations over a planning horizon of five to ten years. The developed methodology uses historic vehicle registration data, state-level EV adoption targets, seasonal driving patterns, local demographics, competition, and traffic volume information to predict average station usage. Through Monte Carlo simulations, an average daily load profile is obtained for each month in the planning horizon, and prediction uncertainty is quantified. The proposed framework will facilitate the accurate estimation of energy and demand costs incurred by the charging station over the planning period, thereby informing return-on-investment calculations.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

Automatic cloud tracking applied to GOES and Meteosat observations

An improved automatic processing method for the tracking of cloud motions as revealed by satellite imagery is presented and applications of the method to GOES observations of Hurricane Eloise and Meteosat water vapor and infrared data are presented. The method is shown to involve steps of picture smoothing, target selection and the calculation of cloud motion vectors by the matching of a group at a given time with its best likeness at a later time, or by a cross-correlation computation. Cloud motion computations can be made in as many as four separate layers simultaneously. For data of 4 and 8 km resolution in the eye of Hurricane Eloise, the automatic system is found to provide results comparable in accuracy and coverage to those obtained by NASA analysts using the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System, with results obtained by the pattern recognition and cross correlation computations differing by only fractions of a pixel. For Meteosat water vapor data from the tropics and midlatitudes, the automatic motion computations are found to be reliable only in areas where the water vapor fields contained small-scale structure, although excellent results are obtained using Meteosat IR data in the same regions. The automatic method thus appears to be competitive in accuracy and coverage with motion determination by human analysts.

Endlich, R. M.↗

Supply Chain for Energy Technologies

Understanding manufacturing cost implications of technologies is critical to aid adoption of next-generation energy solutions. It is important to understand not only of the manufacturing costs and value-add along the supply chain, but also gain understanding of manufacturing location decisions. By identifying a technology's competitive strengths and weaknesses, analyses give researchers and program decision makers the data and insights needed to create strategies and plans that better promote U.S. economic growth and pursue R&D activities that have the greatest long-term potential to yield significant energy savings for U.S. consumers. In this talk, we present examples of analysis from a variety of energy technologies to demonstrate how manufacturing cost analysis can be used to answer specific policy or research questions. In addition, we present case studies showing the importance of understanding trade flow, manufacturing locations, and capacity and utilization to inform economic growth and potential for technology adoption.

benchmarking↗

Solar Forecasting, Net Load Forecasting, and Data-Driven Distributed Solar Visibility Prizes (Final Technical Report)

The American-Made Solar Forecasting Prize, Net Load Forecasting Prize, and Data-Driven Distribution (3D) Solar Visibility Prize is a multimillion-dollar prize competition designed to energize U.S. solar innovation through a series of contests that accelerate the entrepreneurial process from years to months. The activities incentivized by these three prizes will support the governmentwide approach to increase American energy dominance by promoting innovation and early deployment of energy technologies, resulting in wider adoption, which is critical for secure, affordable, and reliable solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Laboratory for Atmospheres 2002 Technical Highlights

How can we improve our ability to predict the weather-tomorrow, next week, and into the future? How is the Earth's climate changing? What causes such change? And what are its costs? What can the atmospheres of distant planets teach us about our own planet and its evolution? The Laboratory for Atmospheres is helping to answer these and other scientific questions about our planet and its neighbors. The Laboratory conducts a broad theoretical and experimental research program studying all aspects of the atmospheres of the Earth and other planets, including their structural, dynamical, radiative, and chemical properties, with the overarching goal to provide better understanding and to improve prediction of the Earth's climate. Vigorous research is central to NASA's exploration of the frontiers of knowledge. NASA scientists play a key role in conceiving new space missions, providing mission requirements, and carrying out research to explore the behavior of planetary systems, including, notably, the Earth's. Our Laboratory's scientists also supply outside scientists with technical assistance and scientific data to further investigations not immediately addressed by NASA itself. Laboratory scientists submit competitive research proposals with diverse scientific or technological approaches to NASA and other Federal agencies to acquire research support. The Laboratory management strives to provide a working environment that promotes creativity, competition, and openness. The Laboratory for Atmospheres is a vital participant in NASA's research program. Our Laboratory often has relatively large programs, sizable satellite missions, or observational campaigns that require the cooperative and collaborative efforts of many scientists. We ensure an appropriate balance between our scientists' responsibility for these large collaborative projects and their need for an active individual research agenda. This balance allows members of the Laboratory to continuously improve their scientific credentials. The Laboratory places high importance on promoting and measuring quality in its scientific research. We strive to assure high quality through peer-review funding processes that support approximately 90% of the work in the Laboratory. The overall quality of our scientific efforts is evaluated periodically by committees of advisors from the external scientific community, as detailed in Appendix 2 of this document. Members of the Laboratory interact with the general public to support a wide range of interests in the atmospheric sciences. Among other activities, the Laboratory raises the public's awareness of atmospheric science by presenting public lectures and demonstrations, by making scientific data available to wide audiences, by teaching, and by mentoring students and teachers. Section 6 presents details of the Laboratory's outreach activities during 2002. The Laboratory is also committed to addressing the demographic imbalances that exist today in the atmospheric and space sciences. We must address these imbalances for our field to enjoy the full benefit of all of the Nation's talent. The Laboratory makes substantial efforts to attract new scientists to the fields of atmospheric and space sciences. We strongly encourage the establishment of partnerships with Federal and state agencies that have operational responsibilities to promote the societal application of Earth sciences.

Steven E. Platnick↗

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗

Low-Complexity Lossless Compression of Hyperspectral Imagery Via Adaptive Filtering

A low-complexity, adaptive predictive technique for lossless compression of hyperspectral data is presented. The technique relies on the sign algorithm from the repertoire of adaptive filtering. The compression effectiveness obtained with the technique is competitive with that of the best of previously described techniques with similar complexity.

lossless data compression↗

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Constraints on the normal branch of DGP gravity from SPT galaxy clusters with DES and HST weak-lensing mass calibration and from P l a n c k PR4 CMB anisotropies

We present constraints on the normal branch of the Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati (nDGP) braneworld gravity model from the abundance of massive galaxy clusters. On scales below the nDGP crossover scale r c , the nDGP model features an effective gravitylike fifth force that alters the growth of structure, leading to an enhancement of the halo mass function (HMF) on cluster scales. The enhanced cluster abundance allows for constraints on the nDGP model using cluster samples. We employ the South Pole Telescope (SPT) cluster sample, selected through the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with the SPT and with mass calibration using weak-lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The cluster sample contains 1,005 clusters with redshifts 0.25 < z < 1.78 , which are confirmed with the multicomponent matched filter algorithm using optical and near-infrared data. Weak-lensing data from DES and HST enable a robust mass measurement of the cluster sample. We use DES Year 3 data for 688 clusters with redshifts z < 0.95 , and HST data for 39 clusters with redshifts 0.6 < z < 1.7 . We account for the enhancement in the HMF through a semi-analytic correction factor to the standard cosmology HMF derived from the spherical collapse model in the nDGP model. We then further calibrate this model using N -body simulations. In addition, for the first time, we analyze the primary CMB temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from Planck PR4 within the nDGP model. We obtain a competitive constraint from the joint analysis of the SPT cluster abundance with the Planck PR4 data, and report an upper bound of 1 / H 0 r c < 1.41 at 95% when assuming a cosmology with massive neutrinos.

Vogt, S. M.L. [Munich U. Observ.; LMU Munich (main↗