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DOE OSTI2023

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fault Slip and Fluid Flow: Seismic Source Analysis to Assess Role of Multiple Slip Patches in Fault Permeability

The relationship between fault reactivation, microearthquakes (MEQs), and permeability evolution during fluid injection plays a critical role in energy harvesting and waste disposal. Recent studies have demonstrated the possibility of predicting fault permeability using cumulative seismic moments of MEQs quantitatively. To understand the underlying physical processes, we conduct fault reactivation experiments using Utah FORGE granitoid and analyze acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during stepwise increases in fluid injection pressure. Frequency analysis of thousands of calibrated AE signals reveals that fault reactivation produces multiple AE source patches with millimeter-scale radii—smaller than the sample fault radius. The cumulative area of the reactivated patches covers the fault multiple times over (∼10x–50x area) for each pressure step. These findings provide mechanistic insight that measured permeability enhancement is not driven by a single large slip event, but by the sequential and interacting activation of multiple slip patches that create a continuous flow pathway.

Nurshal, M. E. M. [Pennsylvania State University, ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions

Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities are being considered strategies to reduce global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share of importers imposing such restrictions and the potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they could result in negative economic implications for producers and consumers. We quantify future emissions and economic implications of oil palm and soybean import restrictions. Current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact due to the EU’s otherwise small and diminishing share of global palm and soy demand. If extended beyond the EU, such import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative LUC emissions by 2050 in key oil crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $\$$4.1-$\$$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Author Correction: US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements

Correction to: Naturehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07117-5 Published online 13 March 2024 In the version of the article initially published, several errors were present and have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article and Supplementary Information. The main results, conclusions, and our interpretations of the data remain unchanged. See the new Supplementary Information Section S15 for a more detailed description of the errors corrected and the resulting effects on the analysis. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. The following practices may help researchers conducting similar analyses avoid making similar errors: 1, Clear, accessible documentation explaining the interpretation of all columns in data input tables and all internal variables within the model, 2, Simple cross-check calculations computed before and after unit conversions.

Sherwin, Evan D↗

DOE OSTI2020

Intercropping kura clover with prairie cordgrass mitigates soil greenhouse gas fluxes

Prairie cordgrass (PCG) ( Spartina pectinata Link) has a high tolerance to soil salinity and waterlogging, therefore, it can thrive on marginal lands. Optimizing the nitrogen (N) input is crucial to achieving desirable biomass production of PCG without negatively impacting the environment. Thus, this study was based on the hypothesis that the use of legumes such as kura clover ( Trifolium ambiguum M. Bieb.) (KC) as an intercrop with PCG can provide extra N to the crop reducing the additional N fertilizer and mitigating soil surface greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specific objective of the study was to assess the impact of PCG managed with different N rates [0 kg N ha -1 (PCG-0N), 75 kg N ha -1 (PCG-75N), 150 kg N ha -1 (PCG-150N), and 225 kg N ha -1 (PCG-255N)], and PCG intercropped with KC (PCG-KC) on GHG fluxes and biomass yield. The experimental site was established in 2010 in South Dakota under a marginally yielding cropland. The GHG fluxes were measured from 2014 through 2018 growing seasons using the static chamber. Net global warming potential (GWP) was calculated. Data showed that cumulative CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes were similar for all the treatments over the study period. However, the PCG-KC, PCG-0N, and PCG-75N recorded lower cumulative N 2 O fluxes (384, 402, and 499 g N ha -1 , respectively) than the PCG-150N (644 g N ha -1 ) and PCG-255N (697 g N ha -1 ). The PCG-KC produced 85% and 39% higher yield than the PCG-0N in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and similar yield to the other treatments (PCG-75N, PCG-150N, and PCG-255N) in these years. Net GWP was 52% lower for the PCG-KC (112.38 kg CO 2 -eq ha -1 ) compared to the PCG-225N (227.78 kg CO 2 -eq ha -1 ), but similar to other treatments. Soil total N was 15%% and 13% higher under PCG-KC (3.7 g kg -1 ) than that under PCG-0N (3.2 g kg -1 ) and PCG-75N (3.3 g kg -1 ), respectively. This study concludes that intercropping prairie cordgrass with kura clover can enhance biomass yield and reduce fertilizer-derived N 2 O emissions and net global warming potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning forecasts the spatiotemporal evolution of fluid-induced microearthquakes

Microearthquakes generated by subsurface fluid injection record the evolving stress state and permeability of reservoirs. Forecasting their spatiotemporal evolution is therefore critical for applications such as enhanced geothermal systems, carbon dioxide sequestration and other geoengineering applications. Here we propose a transformer neural network model that ingests hydraulic stimulation history and prior microearthquake observations to forecast four key quantities: cumulative microearthquake count, cumulative logarithmic seismic moment, and the 50th- and 95th-percentile extents of the microearthquake cloud. Applied to the EGS Collab Experiment 1 dataset, the model achieves R2 > 0.98 for the 1-s forecast horizon and R2 > 0.88 for the 15-s forecast horizon across all targets, and supplies uncertainty estimates through a learned standard deviation term. These accurate, uncertainty-quantified forecasts enable real-time inference of fracture propagation and permeability evolution, demonstrating the strong potential of deep-learning approaches to improve seismic-risk assessment and guide mitigation strategies in future fluid-injection operations.

Chung, Jaehong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic origin of criticality at macroscale in QCD chiral phase transition

We reveal that the criticality of the chiral phase transition in QCD at the macroscale arises from the microscopic energy levels of its fundamental constituents, the quarks. We establish a novel relation between cumulants of the chiral order parameter (i.e., chiral condensate) and correlations among the energy levels of quarks (i.e., eigenspectra of the massless Dirac operator), which naturally leads to a generalization of the Banks-Casher relation. Based on this novel relation and through (2+1)-flavor lattice QCD calculations using the HISQ action with varying light quark masses in the vicinity of the chiral phase transition, we demonstrate that the correlations among the infrared part of the Dirac eigenspectra exhibit same universal scaling behaviors as expected of the cumulants of the chiral condensate. We find that these universal scaling behaviors extend up to the physical values of the up and down quark masses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium expectations for non-Gaussian fluctuations near a QCD critical point

With the highly anticipated results from the Beam Energy Scan II program at RHIC being recently revealed, an understanding of particle-number fluctuations and their significance as a potential signature of a possible QCD critical point is crucial. Early works that embarked on this endeavor sought to estimate the fluctuations due to the presence of a critical point assuming they stay in equilibrium. From these results came the proposal to focus efforts on higher, non-Gaussian, moments of the event-by-event distributions, in particular of the number of protons. These non-Gaussian moments are especially sensitive to critical fluctuations, as their magnitudes are proportional to high powers of the critical correlation length. As the equation of state provides key input for hydrodynamical simulations of heavy-ion collisions, we estimate equilibrium fluctuations from the BEST equation of state (EoS) that includes critical features from the 3D Ising Model. In particular, the proton factorial cumulants and their dependence on non-universal mapping parameters is investigated within the BEST EoS. Furthermore, the correlation length, as a central quantity for the assessment of fluctuations in the vicinity of a critical point, is also calculated in a consistent manner with the scaling equation of state. An understanding of the equilibrium estimates of proton factorial cumulants will be useful for further comparison to estimates of out-of-equilibrium fluctuations in order to determine the magnitude of the observable fluctuations to be expected in heavyion collision experiments, in which the time spent near a critical point is short.

Karthein, Jamie M. [Massachusetts Institute of Tec↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fission Product Yield Modeling and Evaluation

Although independent and cumulative fission product yields have been a part of evaluated libraries for decades, there have been few updates over the years. The fission product yield sub-library in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library is still largely based on the evaluation of England and Rider from the mid-90’s, with only more recent updates to the energy dependence of 239 Pu below 2 MeV and fixes to isomeric states and missing fission products. Over the past several years, there have been a wealth of new measurements of independent and cumulative fission product yields, particularly those with short half-lives, and there have been significant improvements in the modeling of prompt and delayed fission observables. Here, we describe recent progress in the improvement of fission product yield calculations, using the BeoH code and the underlying Hauser Fesh-bach Fission Fragment Decay (HF 3 D) model, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. We will describe our recent calculations for consistent prompt and delayed fission observables for major and minor actinides, including new work investigating isomeric ratios. We will detail the ongoing evaluation process for energy-dependent fission product yields from thermal up to 20 MeV incident neutron energy and some validation work that has been performed for these new fission product yield calculations. Additionally, we will discuss future perspectives of this work, highlighting the need for additional data.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Too big, too small, or just right? A benchmark assessment of density functional theory for predicting the spatial extent of the electron density of small chemical systems

Multipole moments are the first-order responses of the energy to spatial derivatives of the electric field strength. The quality of density functional theory prediction of molecular multipole moments thus characterizes errors in modeling the electron density itself, as well as the performance in describing molecules interacting with external electric fields. However, only the lowest non-zero moment is translationally invariant, making the higher-order moments origin-dependent. Therefore, instead of using the 3 × 3 quadrupole moment matrix, we utilize the translationally invariant 3 × 3 matrix of second cumulants (or spatial variances) of the electron density as the quantity of interest (denoted by K). The principal components of K are the square of the spatial extent of the electron density along each axis. A benchmark dataset of the principal components of K for 100 small molecules at the coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples at the complete basis set limit is developed, resulting in 213 independent K components. The performance of 47 popular and recent density functionals is assessed against this Var213 dataset. Several functionals, especially double hybrids, and also SCAN and SCAN0 predict reliable second cumulants, although some modern, empirically parameterized functionals yield more disappointing performance. The H, Li, and Be atoms, in particular, are challenging for nearly all methods, indicating that future functional development could benefit from the inclusion of their density information in training or testing protocols.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of two-particle properties within finite-temperature self-consistent one-particle Green’s function methods: Theory and application to GW and GF2

One-particle Green’s function methods can model molecular and solid spectra at zero or non-zero temperatures. One-particle Green’s functions directly provide electronic energies and one-particle properties, such as dipole moment. However, the evaluation of two-particle properties, such as $\langle$S 2 $\rangle$ and $\langle$N 2 $\rangle$, can be challenging because they require a solution of the computationally expensive Bethe–Salpeter equation to find two-particle Green’s functions. We demonstrate that the solution of the Bethe–Salpeter equation can be completely avoided. Applying the thermodynamic Hellmann–Feynman theorem to self-consistent one-particle Green’s function methods, we derive expressions for two-particle density matrices in a general case and provide explicit expressions for GF2 and GW methods. Such density matrices can be decomposed into an antisymmetrized product of correlated one-electron density matrices and the two-particle electronic cumulant of the density matrix. Cumulant expressions reveal a deviation from ensemble representability for GW, explaining its known deficiencies. We analyze the temperature dependence of $\langle$S 2 $\rangle$ and $\langle$N 2 $\rangle$ for a set of small closed-shell systems. Interestingly, both GF2 and GW show a non-zero spin contamination and a non-zero fluctuation of the number of particles for closed-shell systems at the zero-temperature limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parametrized ion-distribution model for extended x-ray absorption fine-structure analysis at high-energy-density conditions

Experiments today can compress solids near isentropically to pressures approaching 100 × 106 atmospheres; however, determining the temperature of such matter remains a major challenge. Extended x-ray absorption fine-structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy is one of the few techniques sensitive to the bulk temperature of highly compressed solid matter, and the validity of this temperature measurement relies on constraining the local ion structure from the EXAFS spectrum. At high-energy-density (HED) conditions, the local ion structure often becomes distorted, which must be accounted for during the EXAFS analysis. Described here is a technique, using a parametrized ion-distribution model to directly analyze EXAFS spectra that provides a better constraint on the local structure than traditional second- or third-order cumulant expansion techniques at HED conditions. The parametrized ion-distribution model is benchmarked by analyzing EXAFS spectra from nickel molecular-dynamics simulations at ∼100 GPa and shown to provide a 10%–20% improvement in constraining the cumulants of the true ion distribution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cross-correlating radial peculiar velocities and CMB lensing convergence

We study, for the first time, the cross correlation between the angular distribution of radial peculiar velocities (PV) and the lensing convergence of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons. We derive theoretical expectations for the signal and its covariance and assess its detectability with existing and forthcoming surveys. We find that such cross-correlations are expected to improve constraints on different gravitational models by partially breaking degeneracies with the matter density. We identify in the distance-scaling dispersion of the peculiar velocities the most relevant source of noise in the cross correlation. For this reason, we also study how the above picture changes assuming a redshift-independent scatter for the PV, obtained for example using a reconstruction technique. Our results show that the cross correlation might be detected in the near future combining PV measurements from DESI and the convergence map from CMB-S4. Using realistic direct PV measurements we predict a cumulative signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 3.8σ using data on angular scales 3 ≤ ℓ ≤ 200. For an idealized reconstructed peculiar velocity map extending up to redshift z = 0.15 and a smoothing scale of 4 Mpc h -1 we predict a cumulative signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 27σ from angular scales 3 ≤ ℓ ≤ 200. We conclude that currently reconstructed peculiar velocities have more constraining power than directly observed ones, even though they are more cosmological-model dependent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Full-Shape analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum of DESI DR1 LRG and QSO samples

We present the first joint analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum using the Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), focusing on Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and quasars (QSOs) across a redshift range of 0.4 ≤ z ≤ 2.1. By combining the two- and three-point statistics, we are able to partially break the degeneracy between the logarithmic growth rate, f(z), and the amplitude of dark matter fluctuations, σ s8 (z), which cannot be measured separately in analyses that only involve the power spectrum. In comparison with the (fiducial) Planck ΛCDM cosmology we obtain f/f fid = {0.888 -0.089 +0.186 ,0.977 -0.220 +0.182 ,1.030 -0.085 +0.368 }, σ s8 /σ fid s8 = {1.224 -0.133 +0.091 ,1.071 -0.163 +0.278 ,1.00 0 -0.223 +0.088 } respectively for the three LRG redshift bins, corresponding to a cumulative 10.1% constraint on f, and of 8.4% on σ s8 , including the systematic error budget. Additionally, we obtain constraints for the ShapeFit compressed parameters describing the isotropic scaling parameter, α iso (z), the Alcock-Paczyński parameter, α AP (z), the combined growth of structure parameter fσ s8 (z), and the combined shape parameter m(z)+n(z). Their cumulative constraints from our joint power spectrum-bispectrum analysis are respectively σ αiso = 0.9% (9% improvement with respect to our power spectrum-only analysis); σ α AP = 2.3% (no improvement with respect to power spectrum-only analysis, which is expected given that the bispectrum monopole has no significant anisotropic signal); σ fσs8 = 5.1% (9% improvement); σ m+n = 2.3% (11% improvement). These results are fully consistent with the main DESI power spectrum analysis, demonstrating the robustness of the DESI cosmological constraints, and compatible with Planck ΛCDM cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

WEST full tungsten operation with an ITER grade divertor

The mission of WEST (tungsten-W Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) is to explore long pulse operation in a full tungsten (W) environment for preparing next-step fusion devices (ITER and DEMO) with a focus on testing the ITER actively cooled W divertor in tokamak conditions. Following the successful completion of phase 1 (2016-2021), phase 2 started in December 2022 with the lower divertor made entirely of actively cooled ITER-grade tungsten mono-blocks. A boronization prior the first plasma attempt allowed for a smooth startup with the new divertor. Despite the reduced operating window due to tungsten, rapid progress has been made in long pulse operation, resulting in discharges with a pulse length of 100 s and an injected energy of around 300 MJ per discharge. Plasma startup studies were carried out with equatorial boron nitride limiters to compare them with tungsten limiters, while Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating assisted startup was attempted. High fluence operation in attached regime, which was the main thrust of the first campaigns, already showed the progressive build up of deposits and appearance of dust, impacting the plasma operation as the plasma fluence increased. In total, the cumulated injected energy during the first campaigns reached 43 GJ and the cumulated plasma time exceeded 5 h. Demonstration of controlled X-Point Radiator regime is also reported, opening a promising route for investigating plasma exhaust and plasma-wall interaction issues in more detached regime. This paper summarises the lessons learned from the manufacturing and the first operation of the ITER-grade divertor, describing the progress achieved in optimising operation in a full W environment with a focus on long pulse operation and plasma wall interaction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

First result of boronization assisted by the ICWC on EAST with full metal wall

Boron (B), a low-Z (atomic number) material, has been widely utilized in wall conditioning to improve plasma performance in fusion devices. In 2023, boronization was successfully conducted on EAST featuring an ITER-like tungsten divertor and fully metallic first wall. The process employed predischarge coating with carborane (C 2 B 10 H 12 ) as the working material, assisted by ion cyclotron wall conditioning (ICWC). After one time 12 g boronization, it was found the thickness of B film was approximately 120 nm. Post-boronization observations indicated that substantial hydrogen (H) release during initial plasma discharges compared with the consumed W/B wall, attributed to H co-deposition during the ICWC-boronization processing, which led to uncontrollable divertor neutral pressure and plasma density. The H/(H + D) ratio demonstrated a gradual reduction from ∼85% to 30% over more than 1850 s of deuterium plasma, with a cumulative injected energy of 2325 MJ. The B coating significantly enhanced the stored energy in plasma and improved confinement performance. The stored energy in plasma showed an increase of about 20%, primarily due to a reduction in impurity radiation, including oxygen (O) and heavy impurities such as tungsten (W), iron (Fe), and copper (Cu). The effective ion charge (Z eff ) decreased from 2.3 to 2.0. Following ICWC-boronization, the line-integrated radiation profile decreased by nearly 35% in the plasma core, plasma density and electron temperature exhibited an increase of ∼7% and 12% due to enhanced wall fueling and reduced impurity radiation. The lifetime of boronization, as evaluated by the line emissions from boron and other impurity radiation, was about 1700 s of deuterium plasma, with a cumulative injected energy of 2125 MJ on EAST. These findings provide significant insights for evaluating ICWC-boronization applicability in ITER with full W wall structure.

EAST↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind Farm Wakes and Farm-to-Farm Interactions: Lidar and Wind Tunnel Tests

Recent experimental and numerical evidence has shown that the cumulative wake generated from the overlapping of multiple wakes within a wind farm could reduce power performance and enhance fatigue loads of wind turbines installed in neighboring downstream wind farms and may also extend up to distances one order of magnitude larger than those typically considered for intra-farm wake interactions. Similar to individual wind turbine wakes, wind farm wakes have a velocity deficit and added turbulence intensity, both affected by the turbine rotor thrust forces and the incoming turbulence intensity. Therefore, the evolution of wind farm wakes will vary for different operational and atmospheric conditions. In this paper, lidar measurements collected during the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) and wind tunnel tests of wind farms reproduced by porous disks are leveraged to investigate wind farm wakes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard

Abstract Mandates, like the renewable fuel standard (RFS), for biofuels from corn and cellulosic feedstocks, impact the environment in multiple ways by affecting land use, nitrogen (N)-leakage, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze the differing trade-offs these different types of biofuels offer among these multi-dimensional environmental effects and convert them to a monetized value of environmental damages (or benefits) that can be compared with the economic costs of extending these mandates over the 2016–2030 period. The discounted values of cumulative net benefits (or costs) are then compared to those with a counterfactual level of biofuels that would have been produced in the absence of the RFS over this period. We find that maintaining the corn ethanol mandate at 56 billion l till 2030 will lead to a discounted cumulative value of an economic cost of $199 billion over the 2016–2030 period compared to the counterfactual scenario; this includes $109 billion of economic costs and $85 billion of net monetized environmental damages. The additional implementation of a cellulosic biofuel mandate for 60 billion l by 2030 will increase this economic cost by $69 billion which will be partly offset by the net discounted monetized value of environmental benefits of $20 billion, resulting in a net cost of $49 billion over the 2016–2030 period. We explore the sensitivity of these net (economic and environmental) costs to alternative values of the social costs of carbon and nitrogen and other technological and market parameters. We find that, unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels can result in positive net benefits if the monetary benefits of GHG mitigation are valued high and those of N-damages are not very high.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗