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Results for “covariance and correlation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1996

Optimum Combining of Residual Carrier Array Signals in Correlated Noises

An array feed combining system for the recovery of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) loss due to antenna reflector deformation has been implemented and is currently being evaluated on the Jet Propulsion Laboratory 34-m DSS-13 antenna. The current signal-combining system operates under the assumption that the white Gaussian noise processes in the received signals from different array elements are mutually uncorrelated. However, experimental data at DSS 13 indicate that these noise processes are indeed mutually correlated. The objective of this work is to develop a signal-combining system optimized to account for the mutual correlations between these noise processes. The set of optimum combining weight coefficients that maximizes the combined signal SNR in the correlated noises environment is determined. These optimum weights depend on unknown signal and noise covariance parameters. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed to estimate these unknown parameters to obtain estimates of the optimum weight coefficients based on residual carrier signal samples. The actual combined signal SNR using the estimated weight coefficients is derived and shown to converge to the maximum achievable SNR as the number of signal samples increases. These results are also verified by simulation. A numerical example shows a significant improvement in SNR performance can be obtained, especially when the amount of correlation increases.

Tan, H. H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Variational Method for Analyzing Vortex Flows in Radar-Scanned Tornadic Mesocyclones. Part III: Sensitivities to Vortex Center Location Errors

Abstract When the vortex center location is estimated from a radar-scanned tornadic mesocyclone, the estimated location is not error-free. This raises an important issue concerning the sensitivities of analyzed vortex flow (VF) fields by the VF-Var (formulated in Part I of this paper series and tested in Part II) to vortex center location errors, denoted by Δ x c . Numerical experiments are performed to address this issue with the following findings: The increase of |Δ x c | from zero to a half of vortex core radius causes large analysis error increases in the vortex core but the increased analysis errors decrease rapidly away from the vortex core especially for dual-Doppler analyses. The increased horizontal-velocity errors in the vortex core are mainly in the Δ x c -normal component, because this component varies much more rapidly than the other component along the Δ x c direction in the vortex core. The vertical variations of Δ x c distort the vertical correlation structure of Δ x c -dislocated VF-dependent background error covariance, which can increase the analysis errors in the vortex core. The dual-Doppler analyses have adequate accuracies outside the vortex core even when |Δ x c | increases to a half of vortex core radius, while single-Doppler analyses can also have adequate accuracies outside the vortex core mainly for the single-Doppler-observed velocity component. The sensitivities to Δ x c are largely unaffected by the vortex slanting. The above findings are important and useful for assessing the accuracies of analyzed VFs for real radar-observed tornadic mesocyclones. Significance Statement When the vortex center location is estimated from a radar-scanned tornadic mesocyclone, the estimated location is not error-free. This raises an issue concerning the sensitivity of analyzed vortex flow (VF) by the VF-Var (formulated in Part I of this paper series and tested with simulated radar observations in Part II) to vortex center location error. This issue and its required investigations are very important for the VF-Var to be applied to real radar-observed tornadic mesocyclones, especially in an operational setting with the WSR-88Ds. Numerical experiments are performed to address this issue. The findings from these experiments are important and useful for assessing the accuracies of VF-Var analyzed VF fields for real radar-observed tornadic mesocyclones.

Xu, Qin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Data Covariances and Sampling

In this report, we present an overview of the task of producing sample nuclear data sets for the purpose of exploring the effects of nuclear data uncertainties on physics simulations. These sample data sets (or, as we sometimes call them variations) are produced based on uncertainties specified in the ENDF/B-VIII nuclear data library, although the principles discussed here apply to sampling based on similar libraries, such as JENDL. The uncertainties in ENDF and similar libraries are given in the form of mean values (a mean vector) and a covariance matrix. The components of the mean vector are what are normally thought of as the values of the nuclear data (cross sections, $\bar{v}$, the prompt fission neutron spectrum, etc.) and the covariance matrix contains the information about the uncertainties in these values and correlations between them, including correlations across different energies in a single channel and correlations across different channels.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1976

On estimating gravity anomalies: A comparison of least squares collocation with least squares techniques

The least squares collocation algorithm for estimating gravity anomalies from geodetic data is shown to be an application of the well known regression equations which provide the mean and covariance of a random vector (gravity anomalies) given a realization of a correlated random vector (geodetic data). It is also shown that the collocation solution for gravity anomalies is equivalent to the conventional least-squares-Stokes' function solution when the conventional solution utilizes properly weighted zero a priori estimates. The mathematical and physical assumptions underlying the least squares collocation estimator are described, and its numerical properties are compared with the numerical properties of the conventional least squares estimator.

Argentiero, P.↗

NASA NTRS1977

On estimating gravity anomalies - A comparison of least squares collocation with conventional least squares techniques

Argentiero, P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Remote sensing of earth terrain

A mathematically rigorous and fully polarimetric radar clutter model used to evaluate the radar backscatter from various types of terrain clutter such as forested areas, vegetation canopies, snow covered terrains, or ice fields is presented. With this model, the radar backscattering coefficients for the multichannel polarimetric radar returns can be calculated, in addition to the complex cross correlation coefficients between elements of the polarimetric measurement vector. The complete polarization covariance matrix can be computed and the scattering properties of the clutter environment characterized over a broad range of incident angle and frequencies.

Kong, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Evapotranspiration from combined reflected solar and emitted terrestrial radiation - Preliminary FIFE results from AVHRR data

The relation between remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices and thermal IR measurements is studied. Land surface evapotranspiration is evaluated based on this relationship. Analysis of the AVHRR data, obtained in Kansas in 1987, reveal a strong correlation between the spectral vegetation indices and surface temperature and this relation covaries with surface moisture conditions. It is noted that the relation between remotely sensed measurements of canopy green foliage and surface temperature is useful for examining variations in the interface thermal inertia and energy balance Bowen ratio.

Goward, S. N.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Parametric Analysis of a Hover Test Vehicle using Advanced Test Generation and Data Analysis

Large complex aerospace systems are generally validated in regions local to anticipated operating points rather than through characterization of the entire feasible operational envelope of the system. This is due to the large parameter space, and complex, highly coupled nonlinear nature of the different systems that contribute to the performance of the aerospace system. We have addressed the factors deterring such an analysis by applying a combination of technologies to the area of flight envelop assessment. We utilize n-factor (2,3) combinatorial parameter variations to limit the number of cases, but still explore important interactions in the parameter space in a systematic fashion. The data generated is automatically analyzed through a combination of unsupervised learning using a Bayesian multivariate clustering technique (AutoBayes) and supervised learning of critical parameter ranges using the machine-learning tool TAR3, a treatment learner. Covariance analysis with scatter plots and likelihood contours are used to visualize correlations between simulation parameters and simulation results, a task that requires tool support, especially for large and complex models. We present results of simulation experiments for a cold-gas-powered hover test vehicle.

Gundy-Burlet, Karen↗

NASA NTRS2014

Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

Carbon Uptake↗

NASA NTRS2017

Tropospheric Ozonesonde Profiles at Long-Term U.S. Monitoring Sites: 2. Links Between Trinidad Head, CA, Profile Clusters and Inland Surface Ozone Measurements

Much attention has been focused on the transport of ozone (O3) to the western U.S., particularly given the latest revision of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard to 70 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) of O3. This makes quantifying the contributions of stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange, local pollution, and pollution transport to this region essential. To evaluate free-tropospheric and surface O3 in the western U.S., we use self-organizing maps to cluster 18 years of ozonesonde profiles from Trinidad Head, CA. Three of nine O3 mixing ratio profile clusters exhibit thin laminae of high O3 above Trinidad Head. The high O3 layers are located between 1 and 6 km above mean sea level and reside above an inversion associated with a northern location of the Pacific subtropical high. Ancillary data (reanalyses, trajectories, and remotely sensed carbon monoxide) help identify the high O3 sources in one cluster, but distinguishing mixed influences on the elevated O3 in other clusters is difficult. Correlations between the elevated tropospheric O3 and surface O3 at high-altitude monitors at Lassen Volcanic and Yosemite National Parks, and Truckee, CA, are marked and long lasting. The temporal correlations likely result from a combination of transport of baseline O3 and covarying meteorological parameters. Days corresponding to the high O3 clusters exhibit hourly surface O3 anomalies of +5-10 ppbv compared to a climatology; the positive anomalies can last up to 3 days after the ozonesonde profile. The profile and surface O3 links demonstrate the importance of regular ozonesonde profiling at Trinidad Head.

STE↗

NASA NTRS2018

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Using NASA GEOS: Estimation of Air-Sea Interface State Variables

Air-sea interface variables, such as the skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are essential for atmosphere-ocean coupling. In the NASA GMAO Data Assimilation System (DAS), the skin SST and 3-D atmospheric state are jointly estimated [1]. This presentation is focused on the prior or background error covariance that is used in this analysis. The GEOS DAS uses an ensemble-variational assimilation strategy. In that, specification of a climatological background (CB) error covariance for SST relies on the NOAA's OI SST, with estimates of standard deviation and correlation length scales based on weekly analyses of the bulk SST at 1 degree resolution. However, present analysis system is striving to resolve SST diurnal variability with six hourly analyses and assimilates a vast number of in-situ and satellite observations. The first part of this presentation re-derives the CB error covariance using OSTIA SST analyses and illustrates the impact of this update on assimilating satellite observations. In a hybrid assimilation system the CB error covariances are appended with a flow-dependent background error covariance estimate implied by the underlying ensemble. The second part of this presentation refers to: a. treatment of the skin SST in the ensemble members, b. corresponding ensemble spread, and c. impact of these additions on the data assimilation system. [1] S. Akella, et al. (2017), doi:10.1002/qj.2988

Akella, Santha↗

DOE OSTI2021

A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity

Large scale temporal data have flourished in a vast array of applications, and their sophisticated structures, especially the heteroscedasticity among subjects with inter- and intra-temporal dependence, have fueled a great demand for new statistical models. In this paper, with covariate information, we consider a flexible model for large scale temporal data with subject-specific heteroscedasticity. Formally, the model employs latent semiparametric factors to simultaneously account for the subject-specific heteroscedasticity and the contemporaneous and/or serial correlations. The subject-specific heteroscedasticity is modeled as the product of the unobserved factor process and subject’s covariate effect, which is further characterized via additive models. For estimation, we propose a two-step procedure. First, the latent factor process and nonparametric loading are recovered through projection-based methods, and following, we estimate the regression components by approaches motivated from the generalized least squares. By scrupulously examining the non-asymptotic rates for recovering the factor process and its loading, we show the consistency and efficiency of estimated regression coefficients in the absence of prior knowledge of latent factor process and subject’s covariate effect. Here, the statistical guarantees remain valid even for finite time points that makes our method particularly appealing when the subjects significantly outnumber the observation time points. Using comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, which corroborates the theoretical findings. Finally, we apply our method to a data set of air quality and energy consumption collected at 129 monitoring sites in the United States in 2015.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking and dynamical diquark correlations on proton generalized parton distributions

We calculate the leading-twist, helicity-independent generalized parton distributions (GPDs) of the proton, at finite skewness, in the Nambu–Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model of quantum chomodynamics (QCD). The NJL model reproduces low-energy characteristics of QCD, including dynamical chiral symmetry breaking (DCSB). The proton bound-state amplitude is solved for using the Faddeev equation in a quark-diquark approximation, including both dynamical scalar and axial vector diquarks. GPDs are calculated using a dressed non-local correlator, consistent with DCSB, which is obtained by solving a Bethe-Salpeter equation. The model and approximations used observe Lorentz covariance, and as a consequence the GPDs obey polynomiality sum rules. Extractions of electromagnetic and gravitational form factors are performed. We find a D-term of -1.08 when the non-local correlator is properly dressed, and 0.85 when the bare correlator is used instead, suggesting that within this framework proton stability requires the constituent quarks to be dressed consistently with DCSB. In conclusion, we also find that the anomalous gravitomagnetic moment vanishes, as required by Poincare symmetry.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Abstract New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of VEGETATION and PROBA-V Phenology Using PhenoCam and Eddy Covariance Data

High-quality retrieval of land surface phenology (LSP) is increasingly important for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem function and biosphere–atmosphere interactions. We analyzed four state-of-the-art phenology methods: threshold, logistic-function, moving-average and first derivative based approaches, and retrieved LSP in the North Hemisphere for the period 1999–2017 from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) SPOT-VEGETATION and PROBA-V leaf area index (LAI) 1 km V2.0 time series. We validated the LSP estimates with near-surface PhenoCam and eddy covariance FLUXNET data over 80 sites of deciduous forests. Results showed a strong correlation (R 2 > 0.7) between the satellite LSP and ground-based observations from both PhenoCam and FLUXNET for the timing of the start (SoS) and R 2 > 0.5 for the end of season (EoS). The threshold-based method performed the best with a root mean square error of ~9 d with PhenoCam and ~7 d with FLUXNET for the timing of SoS (30th percentile of the annual amplitude), and ~12 d and ~10 d, respectively, for the timing of EoS (40th percentile).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1981

Atmospheric media effects on ARIES baseline determination

Different types of media effects on ARIES baseline determination are compared. The effectiveness of simple ionospheric calibration models are studied. To perform the covariance analysis, an ARIES observation sequence needs to be assumed. For the current purposes, the observation sequence is selected to be that of experiment 80D over the JPL/Goldstone baseline (approximately 180 km). This experiment consisted of 96 observations over a period of approximately 25 hours on March 25 to 26, 1980. It is found through covariance analyses that the component most sensitive to media depends heavily upon the correlation, between the two stations, of the media effects. It is also found that relying on the cancellation of ionospheric delays between the two ray paths of VLBI observations at S band results in a large error in baseline length determination. High degree removal of ionospheric effects is possible with a crude model, providing correct diurnal peak and minimum ionospheric levels are input.

Wu, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A preliminary analysis of the covariation of surface and midtropospheric temperatures

Monthly, seasonal, and annual averages of surface temperatures and midtropospheric (850-300 hPa) layer-mean temperatures for a global network of 100 stations are analyzed for the periods 1950-87 and 1979-88. The periods were selected on the basis of available data products. A preliminary analysis of the covariation between surface temperatures and midtroposphere layer-mean temperatures indicates a strong correlation in the winter hemispheres over midlatitudes and a much weaker correlation in most of the tropics. Results are compared with other in-situ data sets and with satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data.

Elms, Joe D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Optical and X-ray observations of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676

Optical and X-ray observations of EXO-676 in late March 1989 are presented. Our optical observations provide some support for the previously observed correlation between the mean optical brightness and light curve morphology. Unexpectedly, the mean X-ray and optical flux levels during this period do not reflect similar system states. The optical counterpart is found to be in an intermediate to low state, while X-ray data imply a bright (high) state. The changed relationship between optical and X-ray fluxes is evidence showing that EXO 0748-676 has possibly evolved. We fail to find correlated variability in simultaneous X-ray and optical observations. The lack of covariability is attributed to the limited simultaneous coverage of the source and/or significant geometric modulation in the optical light curve.

Thomas, Brian↗